Tag: Roy Roundtree

Wisconsin 48, Michigan 28

Denard Robinson tackles defensive end JJ Watt after an interception.

Bullets:

I’m not upset.  This is a game that I expected Michigan to lose.  Almost everyone did.  That’s not to say that I wasn’t frustrated by some of the things that the coaches and players did – and the offensive production in the first half was somewhat embarrassing – but ultimately, this outcome is what most educated observers foresaw.

Denard’s overthrow early was a killer.  No one play completely destroyed Michigan on Saturday.  That’s impossible when you lose by 20 points.  But I can’t help but think “What if?” about that long pass from Robinson to Darryl Stonum in the first quarter.  Due to Denard Robinson’s running ability, he’s going to see a lot of Cover 0 with no deep safety.  He must take advantage of those opportunities.  Stonum is a blazer and probably would not have been caught from behind if Robinson had put the pass within reach.  If I remember correctly, that would have tied the game at 7-7.  Instead, Michigan went into halftime down 24-0.

Vincent Smith’s concussion looked ugly.  We’ve all seen our fair share of concussions on television (and/or in person).  The scariest are when players get knocked out cold, but it gives me a queasy feeling to see players stumbling around in a daze like Smith did when he tried to get up.  As commentator Chris Spielman said, kudos to Smith for having the toughness to try to get up after taking a knee to the head from 292-pound defensive end J.J. Watt.  Smith’s reaction was reminiscent of Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Stewart Bradley earlier this season, who was inexplicably allowed to re-enter the game almost immediately; luckily, Michigan’s training staff seems to care more about its players than the Eagles’.  Hopefully Smith heals quickly, but . . .

Injuries are mounting and chances against OSU are slimming.  Starting running back Vincent Smith will probably miss the Ohio State game due to his concussion.  Starting defensive end Craig Roh apparently had concussion-like symptoms, too.  Starting wide receiver Darryl Stonum was carted off the field with his left ankle heavily wrapped in ice.  Starting nose tackle Mike Martin missed much of the second half with his ongoing ankle problems.  Michigan’s top two cornerbacks (Troy Woolfolk, J.T. Floyd) are already out for the season due to ankle injuries.  This seems to be shaping up to be a more beaten-up unit against the Buckeyes than the 2007 team that featured a noodle-armed Chad Henne and a gimpy Mike Hart in the backfield.

The deployment of free safety Ray Vinopal was dumb.  First of all, it’s important to point out that Ray Vinopal has been an upgrade over Cameron Gordon at free safety.  There’s no question about that.  But why in the hell was Greg Robinson using Vinopal as a blitzing box safety?  This type of decision makes me want Robinson replaced at the end of the season.  Against the biggest, most physical, run-oriented team Michigan will face all season, it makes absolutely zero sense to put a 5’10”, 197 lb. (yeah, right) true freshman up at the line of scrimmage to take on a fullback, tight end, or pulling guard.  That’s ridamndiculous.  If you’re going to blitz from that position, put in Thomas Gordon.  Or send Jordan Kovacs from the edge.  There’s no excuse for that kind of matchup at the line of scrimmage, and that’s not Vinopal’s fault.  The Greg Robinson experiment needs to end.

Roy Roundtree is good.  Despite one inexplicable dropped pass on which he was wide open, Roundtree had another good day with 7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown.  I’m looking forward to seeing him wear that #1 jersey.

Congratulations to Denard Robinson.  Robinson passed the NCAA record for most rushing yards by a quarterback, previously set by Air Force QB Beau Morgan in 1996.  He has now passed for 2,229 yards and rushed for 1,538 . . . and he still has two games to go.

Michigan State 34, Michigan 17



Michael Shaw carried 4 times for 29 yards in Saturday’s loss.


Well, that was ugly.  I guess this is what it looks like when Michigan’s offense gets shut down (or, in this case, shuts itself down).  I predicted an MSU victory in Friday’s game preview, but I didn’t think it would be a blowout.  Unfortunately, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson reverted back to 2009 form at times on Saturday, throwing 3 interceptions and making poor reads in the running and passing games.  Here are some thoughts on yesterday’s performance.

Denard Robinson was exposed . . . a little bit.  This has been kind of a problem for Robinson all year long, but yesterday Michigan State’s defense took advantage of it: Denard doesn’t have great ball placement.  When defenses play zone coverage, his receivers do a good job of sitting down in a hole and waiting for the ball.  In turn, Denard does a good job of throwing to those holes in the zone, too.  However, when teams play man coverage, Denard’s accuracy on slants and crossing patterns is erratic.  Rather than throwing low and inside, he tends to throw the ball a) high or b) behind the receiver.  That trait was exposed on Saturday when two throws behind receivers were intercepted by trailing defenders.  In addition, another quarterback rule is “Don’t throw late over the middle of the field.”  Late in the game, Denard threw deep down the middle into double coverage after delaying a bit; the ball was intercepted and ended most of my hope that Michigan could pull one out.

Vincent Smith is not a short yardage running back.  He’s not.  Coach Rodriguez, put someone else – anyone – in at running back on 3rd-and-1.  This is just getting ridiculous.  How many times must you fail at gaining a yard with a 5’6″, 180 lb. running back before you put in somebody capable of breaking a tackle or pushing the pile?  Not only has it happened a few times this year, but Rodriguez also failed to put in a bigger, more powerful back in the 2009 Illinois game after Roy Roundtree was caught at the 1-yard line; Rodriguez left in a notoriously soft runner (Carlos Brown) instead of running Kevin Grady or Brandon Minor.  This is becoming a weekly, yearly problem.  Rodriguez obviously trusts freshman Stephen Hopkins enough to play him in a big rivalry game like this (Hopkins’s two carries went for 7 and 6 yards).  He’s 6’0″ and 227 lbs.  Give him the ball.

Run the ball.  Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry, and the running backs carried 13 times for 76 yards (5.8 yards per carry).  Late in the game, I understand going away from the pass.  Until then, Michigan should run run run when it’s working.

Maybe Tate Forcier should have played.  Forcier, 2009’s season-long starter, was sitting on the bench.  Robinson, a potential Heisman contender, was having a bad day.  Once the game reached a point where passing the ball every play was a given, I wouldn’t have minded if Forcier was inserted.  He’s a more accomplished passer and has better recognition skills.  He’s also 13-for-13 on the season and has some experience – and success – with late-game heroics (see: Indiana 2009, Notre Dame 2009, Michigan State 2009).  Robinson has improved greatly as a passer, but many of his passing stats can be attributed to the threat of the run.  Once defenses can sit back and play the pass almost exclusively, he’s going to be behind the eight ball.  I don’t think Forcier could have necessarily won the game for Michigan at that point, but he would have given the Wolverines a better chance, in my opinion.

Mike Martin is a beast.  Martin left the game late due to an illegal chop block that caused a lower leg injury.  However, before that he was making Michigan State center John Stipek look like a statue.  Martin repeatedly beat Stipek off the snap and into the A-gap of Martin’s choice.  Hopefully his injury isn’t too serious, because backup nose tackle Adam Patterson isn’t very good at all.

Rich Rodriguez’s clock management needs work. 

• At the end of the first half, Rodriguez made bad decisions.  After a run play on which the clock was left to run, Rodriguez had two timeouts but ran the ball on first down.  Instead of calling one of those timeouts immediately, he wasted precious seconds before calling the first.  Then Robinson completed a long pass down the right sideline to Martavious Odoms, leaving :03 seconds on the clock.  Really the only choice at that point was to send out Seth Broekhuizen for a field goal, which Broekhuizen made.  However, if the first timeout had been called quicker, Michigan would have had approximately :07 seconds on the clock; they could have taken a shot at the end zone and still had time to kick the field goal if that attempt failed. 
• At the end of the game, Rodriguez made another mistake.  With about 6 minutes left (if I remember correctly), Michigan was down by three scores and had a 3rd-and-19.  He called for an immediately checkdown to Michael Shaw, which gained 10 yards.  Okay, that’s fine.  I understand the theory.  Get half the yards on 3rd down, and then gain the other 9 yards on 4th down, right?  Nope, after the “give up” pass to Shaw, Rodriguez sent out his punting unit.  Down three scores with six minutes left . . . and you’re going to punt?  Go for the win!  What difference does it make if you fail to get a first down and MSU wins by a score of 41-17?  I’d rather have a chance to win the game than save face.

Michigan’s defense isn’t good enough to give up penalty yards, too.  The team only had three penalties for 35 yards on Saturday, but all three were against the defense.  Obi Ezeh and James Rogers each had a 15-yard facemask penalty, and Tony Anderson’s running into the kicker penalty at the end of the game sealed the Wolverines’ fate.

Michigan’s secondary is S-L-O-W.  Especially once James Rogers exited the game due to cramps, holy cow . . . I’ve never seen a slower secondary at Michigan.  Cam Gordon had no chance to catch Edwin Baker on Baker’s 61-yard touchdown run.  Rogers’s replacement at cornerback, Cullen Christian, has been noted by this blog (and many others’ observations) for his lack of speed; he was almost immediately beaten deep by Spartan receiver Mark Dell.  Cornerback J.T. Floyd and safety Jordan Kovacs both lack speed, too, although neither one was really exposed on Saturday.

Denard Robinson was off.  I don’t know what exactly was wrong.  He seemed to be moving fine.  He just wasn’t making the right reads in the passing or the running game.  It didn’t seem like he was seeing holes as quickly as in previous weeks.  Some credit goes to the Spartans for getting penetration with their defensive front four, but I don’t think Robinson was on top of his game.  And after throwing only one interception in the previous five weeks, he threw three today to an average MSU secondary.  It didn’t help that his receivers had subpar days, either.  I thought Roy Roundtree would have a big day – and he had opportunities – but Roundtree dropped two passes, and Robinson missed him a couple times, too.  He also overthrew a wide open Darryl Stonum in the endzone in the first quarter.  The deep ball needs work.

The defense continues to be crappy.  Michigan State’s quarterbacks completed 73% of their passes for 287 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions.  The Spartans averaged 5.9 yards per carry, and running backs Edwin Baker (6.7 yards per carry) and Le’Veon Bell (11.1) were outstanding.  The good news is that since MSU likes to run the ball, Michigan has now moved up to #119 in the country against the pass (ahead of only Tulsa).  The bad news is that Michigan has dropped ten spots to #112 in overall defense (New Mexico is better) since last week, on the strength of MSU’s 536 total yards.

I realize this post is quite negative, but on the heels of a blowout and three straight losses to Michigan State, I have a hard time finding positives.

Mailbag: Why the Roy Roundtree love?

RE: Roundtree: His lack of speed is evident. It basically cost us the Illinois game last year, and almost cost us the Indiana game this year. (Its never just about one play, but if he doesn’t get caught on those plays we maybe/probably get 7 extra points that don’t make these gains seem so bad) Speed and big play ability has been hailed in this blog (Shaw on O and the critiques for Gordon/Kovacs on D) but Roundtree has gotten a bit of a free pass.


Most of Roundtree’s big plays are the result of Denard and scheme. He runs, untouched, thanks to the defense’s attention being elsewhere. He’s a good player (that ND catch to get to the goalline was the best play of his career IMO) but he’s benefiting from circumstance. Odoms was pretty productive in the same role and Grady has had some big plays in the backup guy.  The slots all have a similar YPC, while Stonum, TRob, and Hemingway all have bigger YPC.


I’m not saying Roundtree should be benched, I’m just wondering why the love for Roundtree is so strong but another productive/reliable player like Smith gets killed.

First of all, let’s take a look at the facts.  Lankownia says that the slots all have similar yards per catch, and a few other wide receivers have better yards per catch.  So let’s see . . .

Roy Roundtree: 25 catches, 337 yards, 13.6 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Darryl Stonum: 15 catches, 226 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Martavious Odoms: 14 catches, 165 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Kelvin Grady: 8 catches, 105 yards, 12.1 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Junior Hemingway: 6 catches, 190 yards, 31.7 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Jeremy Gallon: 2 catches, 25 yards, 12.5 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Terrence Robinson: 1 catch, 43 yards, 43.0 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns

So if we’re just talking about yards per catch, Roundtree is fourth on the team behind Terrence Robinson, Junior Hemingway, and Darryl Stonum.  Robinson only has one catch this season, so it’s hard to tell how talented he is.  Surely his 43.0 yards per catch wouldn’t hold up throughout an entire season.

That leaves Stonum and Hemingway as legitimately more dangerous players, right?  Sure, I guess.  But those solid numbers are also a function of their positions.  In Rich Rodriguez’s offense, the outside receivers are expected to a) block, b) run intermediate routes, and c) run go routes.  It should be expected that these players will have higher yards per catch, because short routes aren’t in their arsenal.  They either catch the ball downfield, or they don’t catch the ball at all.

In the meantime, Roy Roundtree plays slot receiver.  Slot receiver in this offense is much like running back, because a large portion of Roundtree’s catches are bubble screens, which are essentially long handoffs.  Lankownia states that Martavious Odoms was pretty productive as a slot receiver, too, but these two slot receivers don’t compare.  Between 2008 and 2009, Odoms averaged 35.5 receptions, 357.5 yards, and .5 touchdowns.  In 10 career games as a slot receiver, Roundtree has 57 catches for 771 yards and 5 touchdowns.  And while Odoms only averaged 10.1 yards per reception in 2008-09, Roundtree has him beat by about 3.5 yards per catch.  That’s a pretty significant difference.

Lankownia seems to be frustrated that Roundtree has been unable to score on a couple long receptions.  He had a 76-yarder against Illinois last year on which he was caught at the 1-yard line, and there was the 74-yarder against Indiana this past weekend on which Roundtree was stopped on the 2-yard line.  I have a hard time criticizing a guy whose biggest fault seems to be that his 75-ish-yard catches don’t turn into 77-ish-yard catches.  Those plays would probably be remembered more fondly if Rich Rodriguez hadn’t chosen noted softy Carlos Brown and 5’6″ Vincent Smith, respectively, to try to punch those subsequent plays into the endzone; in case your memory is failing you right now, both Brown and Smith failed. 

Regarding Roundtree’s supposed lack of speed vs. the lack of speed for Cameron Gordon and Jordan Kovacs, I don’t see Roundtree’s footspeed as a huge problem.  Again, when a guy is averaging 13.6 yards a catch and has the ability to make 76-yard catch-and-run plays, I’m not going to complain.  Roundtree has the necessary skills to be a very successful wide receiver, even if his speed leaves a tiny bit to be desired.  The problem with Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs is that their lack of speed specifically prevents them from doing their jobs.  As safeties, their jobs presumably entail preventing the other team from making big plays and scoring.  When an Indiana running back outruns you for 85 yards (Jordan Kovacs) and when a 265 lb. tight end outruns you for 95 yards (Cam Gordon), there’s a problem with that.  And when both of those guys are playing in the same defensive backfield, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Lankownia also says that Roundtree’s production is the result of Denard’s running ability.  If that’s true, then why did Roundtree catch 32 passes for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns with Tate Forcier running the show last year?  Teams weren’t really afraid of Forcier’s running, but Roundtree still found a way to lead the team in receiving in scant playing time.

The premise for Lankownia’s statement about Smithis questionable, in my opinion.  It presumes that Vincent Smith is a productive running back.  As I noted in a recent post, Smith is the 8th-best running back (by yards per carry) in the Big Ten + Notre Dame.  Those mediocre numbers are in conjunction with a Heisman candidate at quarterback and a good offensive line.  Even if Smith is the best running back Michigan has to offer – which I obviously don’t believe – that doesn’t mean he’s productive.  Meanwhile, Roundtree consistently finds himself in open areas of the field, whether the quarterback is Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson.  I don’t know what it is, but Roundtree has that “It Factor” that some guys just happen to have.  He catches the ball, makes an occasional big play, blocks well (watch Brandon Minor’s TD run against Purdue in 2009), makes people miss, and most importantly, he gets open.

I can’t make this clear enough, but it’s worth repeating: I don’t hate Vincent Smith.  I don’t have a personal grudge against him.  I’m not against short backs (I loved to watch Darren Sproles when he was at Kansas State), I’m not against dreadlocks (Denard Robinson has quickly grown into one of my favorite players), and it’s not about recruiting rankings (Michael Cox wasn’t a highly touted recruit, either).  I quite simply believe that Smith shouldn’t be getting the most carries for this team.  And while Smith has been just so-so in his two seasons, Roundtree has been somewhere between above average and spectacular.

Michigan 42, Indiana 35




You can close your eyes and pray all you want, #46, but you’re not gonna catch him.

  Yesterday’s victory was at once entertaining, frustrating, and boring.  The entertainment factor was apparent: Michigan put up 574 yards and 42 points on a Big Ten team, with quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Denard Robinson accounting for 494 of those yards.  The frustration part was apparent, too: Michigan allowed 568 yards and 35 points to a perennial Big Ten cellar dweller, and Indiana held the ball for over 41 minutes.

The boring part was less obvious, but throughout the entire game, I knew Michigan was going to win this game.  I’ve rarely been this confident during a contest, but I feel I’ve reached a near level of zen when it comes to watching this Michigan team.  Michigan’s offense will score loads of points as long as Denard Robinson is at the helm, and Michigan’s defense sucks.  I no longer hope for competence from Michigan’s defense.  They are overmatched and there’s virtually no hope for them to improve this season.  Sure, they’ll make a timely sack once in awhile (Mike Martin) or flash some anticipation in the secondary that results in an interception (Cam Gordon).  But ultimately, both defenses yesterday were atrocious and Michigan’s offense is better.  A 7-point margin is . . . just about right.

Some praise and a few gripes . . .

Denard Robinson is awesome.  I feel like I say this in almost every post, but there’s no getting around it.  He is having one of the best statistical seasons in college football history and is currently on pace to run (2,353) and throw (2,621) for 2,000 yards and account for 39 touchdowns over a 13-game season.  The easiest part of the schedule has passed, so I don’t expect that Robinson will maintain his torrid pace.  Regardless, the first five starts of his career must be on par with or better than every other quarterback in NCAA history.

Michigan’s defense is bad.  This was noted above, but there’s no reason to expect significant improvement in the second half of the season.  I heard Michigan’s official motto is “Let’s hope the other team drops the ball or something.”  After Saturday’s game Michigan is ranked #120 (out of 120 teams) in pass defense, giving up 307.8 yards a game in the air.  Michigan is also #88 in sacks, #88 in net punting, #99 in punt returns, #102 in total defense, and #104 in kickoff returns.  Basically, Michigan is bad at everything that doesn’t involve offense.  And the Wolverines haven’t even played the tough part of their schedule.

Michigan’s goalline offense needs rethinking.  Roy Roundtree caught a 74-yard pass that took the ball down to Indiana’s 2-yard line.  On first down, Michigan lined up in the I-formation and shot a BB at Indiana’s defense in the form of 5’6″, 180 lb. Vincent Smith.  That didn’t work.  Then Michigan lined up in the I-formation again, and the center-quarterback exchange was promptly fumbled, providing Indiana the chance to drive 99 yards for a touchdown (on which Indiana capitalized).  Rich Rodriguez has a 6’0″, 211 lb. tailback (Michael Cox) and a 6’1″, 227 lb. tailback (Stephen Hopkins) at his disposal.  That personnel decision makes no sense whatsoever.

Vincent Smith had a good game.  I don’t think anyone has been more critical of Vincent Smith than I have.  It’s not that I dislike him or think he’s a horrible player, but I just think there are better options.  Against Indiana he had a 56-yard touchdown run on which he was nearly untouched.  Altogether he had 9 carries for 80 yards and the touchdown.  After five games, here’s how Smith stacks up against the rest of the Big Ten’s (and Notre Dame’s) leading rushers, listed according to yards per carry:

1. Edwin Baker (Michigan State): 75 carries, 536 yards, 7.1 ypc, 5 TDs
2. John Clay (Wisconsin): 94 carries, 581 yards, 6.2 ypc, 6 TDs
3. Mikel Leshoure (Illinois): 77 carries, 478 yards, 6.2 ypc, 3 TDs
4. Dan Dierking (Purdue): 38 carries, 205 yards, 5.4 ypc, 2 TDs
5. Evan Royster (Penn State): 67 carries, 353 yards, 5.3 ypc, 1 TD
6. Adam Robinson (Iowa): 98 carries, 480 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
7. Armando Allen (Notre Dame): 80 carries, 392 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs
8. Vincent Smith (Michigan): 53 carries, 252 yards, 4.8 ypc, 4 TDs
9. Dan Herron (Ohio State): 65 carries, 287 yards, 4.4 ypc, 5 TDs
10. Duane Bennett (Minnesota): 91 carries, 400 yards, 4.4 ypc, 2 TDs

2010 Season Predictions

Starting quarterback: Denard Robinson will start the season opener against UConn on Saturday. However, I think his lack of passing ability (although improved) will give Tate Forcier a chance to take the majority of the snaps by the end of the season.

Leading rusher: Denard Robinson. Even if he’s not the starting quarterback for the entire season, he should get enough carries – and enough big plays – to be Michigan’s leading rusher. The team also lacks a clear #1 running back, which means handoffs will be shared amongst Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins. My guess is Robinson will end up with around 800 yards rushing.

Leading receiver: Roy Roundtree. The quarterbacks like to target the slot receivers, and Roundtree caught 30 balls over the last four games last season. The guess here is that Roundtree gets 60 catches and 900 yards this season.

Leading tackler: Last year’s leading tackler was Steve Brown, who played something similar to the Spur position. That will be manned by freshman Carvin Johnson, who will almost surely suffer from brain farts or injury this year and therefore disqualify himself. The second-leading tackler was Jordan Kovacs, who will probably lose some time to freshman Marvin Robinson. The third leading tackler was middle linebacker Obi Ezeh, who seems to have lost his job to a converted fullback. So I’m going with last year’s fourth-leading tackler: Jonas Mouton.

Leading sacker: Redshirt junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen will edge out sophomore linebacker Craig Roh by the slightest of margins, 7.5 to 7.

Leading interceptor: I don’t expect Michigan to grab a lot of picks this year. The Wolverines will probably have a few guys pick off two passes each, and those will be J.T. Floyd, Jordan Kovacs, and Jonas Mouton. But because I don’t want to be wishy-washy like Michael Wilbon, I’ll pick Floyd.

All Big Ten 1st team: Center David Molk. Kick returner Darryl Stonum.

Leading scorer (non-QB, non-kicker): Roy Roundtree.

Breakout offensive player: I don’t see anyone having a monstrous season, and Roy Roundtree was probably 2009’s breakout player, or else I would pick him. So I’ll go with Denard Robinson, who will hopefully be able to pass the ball well enough to qualify in this category.

Breakout defensive player: Ugh, this defense looks bad. I guess I’ll go with Ryan Van Bergen. He won’t be a superstar and he won’t approximate Brandon Graham, but he should be able to get a consistent pass rush.

Most disappointing offensive player: Despite being listed as a co-starter, I think Vincent Smith will be somewhat of a disappointment this year. A lot of people thought he was the heir apparent last year when he seemed to be the primary backup for the senior running backs, but I think he’s just mediocre. He might be consistent, but spectacular plays are outside his reach, in my opinion.

Most disappointing defensive player: Cameron Gordon can’t possibly live up to all the offseason hype, although I hope he can. He’s still going to be raw, and I think he’ll make some frustrating plays. This is a hard category to pick, because not much is expected from anyone on defense, really.

The Big Finish
Sept. 4 vs. Connecticut: WIN. Connecticut is a little banged up, and they will be able to run the ball. But Rodriguez was undefeated against UConn in the Big East, and most of those games were blowouts. He knows how to defeat a Randy Edsall-coached team.

Sept. 11 at Notre Dame: LOSS. Dayne Crist and Michael Floyd will dispatch an overmatched secondary in a shootout.

Sept. 18 vs. UMass: WIN. Something approximating the 63-6 trouncing of Delaware State last year is likely.

Sept. 25 vs. Bowling Green: WIN. Michigan’s high-powered offense and superior athletes should be able to roll past BGSU, and the Falcons lost some significant firepower from last season.

Oct. 2 @ Indiana: LOSS. Remember when I said that Troy Woolfolk’s injury would cost Michigan a game at some point? It’s this one right here.

Oct. 9 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. I’d like to pick a win here, but Michigan isn’t good enough to start 5-1, and Kirk Cousins should be able to throw the ball all over the field.

Oct. 16 vs. Iowa: WIN. Michigan barely lost at Iowa last season, and the Wolverines match up with the Hawkeyes better this year. Iowa has a stout defense, but Michigan’s offense has improved.

Oct. 30 @ Penn State: WIN. Penn State’s quarterback position is in flux, the offensive line is weakened, and the defense suffered from some big losses. They’ll get a bunch of rushing yards, but Michigan should be able to pull it out in the end.

Nov. 6 vs. Illinois: WIN. Illinois sucks. They’ll be able to run the ball, but they won’t score enough.

Nov. 13 @ Purdue: WIN. Purdue has a solid defense and they’ve beaten Michigan a couple years in a row . . . I just can’t imagine the Boilermakers running the streak to three.

Nov. 20 vs. Wisconsin: LOSS. Wisconsin looks good this year. Even though I think they’ll fall short of many people’s expectations, they’re probably better than the Wolverines.

Nov. 27 @ Ohio State: LOSS. Ugh.

Final record: 7-5.