Tag: Roy Roundtree

Review of 2010 Season Predictions

Denard Robinson was the star of the show in 2010

One of the reasons I started this blog a couple years ago was to record my thoughts and predictions in order to go back, see what I said, and see if I was right.  With the 2010 season completed, I thought I would go back and check out what I said prior to the year beginning.

First of all, here were my 2010 Season Predictions.

And here’s a rundown of how accurate those were:

STARTING QUARTERBACK
Prediction: I said Denard Robinson would start the opener but that Tate Forcier would have an opportunity to take most of the snaps by the end of the season.
Actual: Denard Robinson started the entire season.
Accuracy: 50%

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Denard Robinson with approximately 800 yards.
Actual: Well, I was right on the player, but wrong on the yardage.  Way wrong.  Robinson ended up wtih 1,702 yards on the ground.
Accuracy: 100%
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Roy Roundtree with 60 catches for 900 yards
Actual: Roundtree had 72 catches for 935 yards.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: Jonas Mouton
Actual: Mouton led the team with 117 tackles, beating out safety Jordan Kovacs by a slim margin.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen with 7.5 sacks
Actual: Van Bergen led the team in sacks, but it was a down year in that category – he ended up with only 4.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING INTERCEPTOR
Prediction: J.T. Floyd
Actual: Cornerback James Rogers and safety/linebacker Cam Gordon each had 3.  Floyd only had 1, but he missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: Incomplete due to Floyd’s injury

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Center David Molk and kick returner Darryl Stonum
Actual: Molk was the right choice.  However, the coaches decided to save Stonum for his offensive duties, giving the job to a couple mediocre returners instead.  With a surprisingly good season, Denard Robinson was also named to the first team by the media.
Accuracy: 33%

LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER, NON-QUARTERBACK)
Prediction: Roy Roundtree
Actual: Running back Michael Shaw scored 9 touchdowns to lead this category.  Roundtree and running back Vincent Smith were second with 7 touchdowns each.
Accuracy: 0%

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Denard Robinson
Actual: Robinson was definitely the breakout player of the year on offense.  He was in the discussion for the Heisman, was the Big Ten Player of the Year, and generally wowed Michigan fans and college football fans in general.
Accuracy: 100%

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen
Actual: Well, nobody really expected much from the defense, and that’s what they got – not much.  Van Bergen had a decent season with 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks.  But I think the real breakout star was middle linebacker Kenny Demens, who surpassed incumbent Obi Ezeh and finished third on the team with 82 tackles.
Accuracy: 0%

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Vincent Smith
Actual: I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Smith was somewhat less effective than is expected from a starting tailback at Michigan.  He finished the year averaging 4.4 yards per carry and – other than a long run against Indiana – was generally ineffective as a complementary runner to quarterback Denard Robinson.  Roundtree might be an option here because of his play in the final few games of the season, but Smith was ineffective for the majority of the season.
Accuracy: 100%

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Cameron Gordon
Actual: While Gordon was a disappointment after all the hype he received in the spring and summer, he wasn’t a complete failure.  He actually made some plays from the free safety position (3 interceptions), but he didn’t have the speed or awareness to stay there and moved to outside linebacker.  But the bigger disappointment was Obi Ezeh, the fifth-year senior middle linebacker who lost his job mid-season to redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens.  Ezeh ended the year with 58 tackles, which is exactly 24 fewer than Demens . . . and 8 fewer than J.T. Floyd, the cornerback who missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: 0%

GAME PREDICTIONS
Win against UConn
Loss to Notre Dame
Win against UMass
Win against Bowling Green
Loss to Indiana
Loss to Michigan State
Win against Iowa
Win against Penn State
Win against Illinois
Win against Purdue
Loss to Wisconsin
Loss to Ohio State

OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY:
63.9%

Mississippi State 52, Michigan 14

Kick returner Martavious Odoms stiff-arms a Bulldog defender

Well, that was disappointing.

Martavious Odoms is a beast.  Odoms came back from a broken foot that he suffered halfway through the season, and he played an excellent game.  His only reception was an impressive 27-yard catch on which he twisted in the air to reel in the ball.  But he was also very effective on kickoff returns, taking back 7 kicks for 161 yards (23.0 yards per return).  You have to appreciate how hard this kid plays on every single play.

Chris Relf is not a beast, but Michigan made him look like one.  This is nothing new – Michigan makes opposing quarterbacks look awesome.  But never has that been more apparent than on New Year’s Day.  If you extrapolate Relf’s performance on Saturday over 13 games, he would have ended the year with 234 completions on 299 attempts (78%) for 3653 yards, 39 passing touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (and Relf’s lone interception was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half).  Prior to the Gator Bowl, Relf was 111/197 (56%) for 1508 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.  That’s right.  Michigan literally made Relf about two or three times better than he was during the rest of the season.

James Rogers is fast.  Even coming out of high school, Rogers’ #1 strength was his speed.  Although the Bulldogs scored on the very next play, kudos to Rogers for chasing down running back Ladarius Perkins on his 81-yard reception.  Perkins looked like he was gone on the play, but as soon as I saw Rogers turn on the jets, I knew it wouldn’t be a touchdown.

Here’s my weekly rant against Vincent Smith.  Argh argh argh argh!  Guess who got the most carries aside from Denard Robinson?  Vincent Smith.  Guess who has the second-lowest rushing average on the team?  Yep, Vincent Smith (4.42 yards per carry).  Fitzgerald Toussaint (10.88), Michael Cox (9.3), and Michael Shaw (5.36) are all significantly higher.  Freshman short yardage back Stephen Hopkins (4.08) is the only back with a lower average.  And I find it funny that one of Rich Rodriguez’s reasons for playing Smith was “He’s not a fumbler.”  Well, now Smith has fumbled about 5 times this year, which is far more than any other running back.  So how about just putting the best player out there, someone who might have a chance at being consistent and/or making a big play?  It’s ridiculous that the starting running back is so ineffective when there are other options that just don’t get a chance to see the field.

Denard Robinson is still erratic. . . 

Look, it’s painful to criticize Robinson.  He doesn’t get much help, he gets beaten up, he’s got a great attitude, he plays hard, and oh by the way, he has a great deal of talent.  But he shouldn’t be throwing the ball 41 times in a game.  I realize that the game situation called for a lot of throws; when you’re down by 38 points, running doesn’t do much.  But this game just didn’t play out well for him.  If backup quarterback Tate Forcier wasn’t an idiot and remained eligible for the bowl game, then the second half would have been a situation in which Forcier would have been inserted.  Forcier is more effective when the playcalling is limited to pass, pass, pass.  So part of this can be blamed on #5, but Denard Robinson was the one who overthrew Junior Hemingway a couple times.  Denard was also the one who consistently made “inaccurate completions” where his receivers had to dive, jump, or twist around to catch the ball.  You’re not going to get a lot of yards after the catch when the receivers don’t have forward momentum.

. . . and so is Roy Roundtree.  I was all about Roy Roundtree early in the season, but he’s totally fallen apart over the past few games.  He dropped a couple passes against Wisconsin, five against Ohio State, and another couple against Mississippi State.  One of the drops against Mississippi State was a very nice deep throw from Robinson that might have gone for a touchdown, except for the fact that Roy Roundtree spent the previous TV timeout eating some KFC.

Field goal schmield goal.  It’s not like losing 52-17 is much different than 52-14, but I was furious when Rich Rodriguez sent out Brendan Gibbons to kick a field goal in the first half.  It’s 4th-and-4, and you’re going to send out a kid who’s 1-for-4 on field goals on a team that’s 4-for-13 overall?  When your defense sucks and so do your kickers, you go for it in that situation.  Those kickers shouldn’t have seen the field except for extra points.

Rich Rodriguez is gone.  This was probably the case prior to the game, but the 38-point loss pretty much seals the deal.  My expectation is that athletic director David Brandon will let Jim Harbaugh coach Stanford against Virginia Tech tomorrow night in the Orange Bowl.  Then later in the week, Harbaugh will be hired to replace Rodriguez.  Rodriguez and his staff had a chance to make a case for themselves in this game, and they laid a very stinky egg.

Michigan vs. Ohio State Awards

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Denard Robinson.  What?  Yeah, you read that correctly.  I hope that in years to come, Robinson can stay healthier than he did this year.  Earlier in the year, I wanted Robinson to run the ball less.  On Saturday, I wanted him to run the ball a lot.  Well, he ran 18 times for 105 yards, but dislocated a couple fingers on his left hand and missed most of the second half.  Sometimes that’s the way the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Butterfingers Roundtree.  I’m not sure what happened to one of my favorite players on this year’s team, Roy Roundtree.  He was perhaps the most dependable receiver on the team over about the first nine games of the season, but dropped a couple passes in games 10 and 11, then dropped five passes (I think) against Ohio State.  He had several chances to make critical catches and couldn’t seem to keep his focus for some reason.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Courtney Avery.  The presence of Avery might allow Troy Woolfolk to return to free safety in 2011.  I really like what I’ve seen from him in the second half of this season.  He needs to get stronger and work on his tackling, but I look forward to seeing him develop over the next few years.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Greg Robinson.  Bye, Coach Robinson.  I hope you land on your feet somewhere.  A lot of people are mad at you, but I kind of feel sorry for you.  Maybe at your next destination, the head coach won’t force you to run a style of defense that you don’t understand.

MVP of the Ohio State game . . . Jordan Kovacs.  I know I mentioned yesterday that I wish Kovacs had tossed the ball to a more athletic teammate after he intercepted a pass at the end of the second quarter, but Kovacs played a solid game.  He ended the day with 17 tackles and the interception.  Good for him.

Wisconsin 48, Michigan 28

Denard Robinson tackles defensive end JJ Watt after an interception.

Bullets:

I’m not upset.  This is a game that I expected Michigan to lose.  Almost everyone did.  That’s not to say that I wasn’t frustrated by some of the things that the coaches and players did – and the offensive production in the first half was somewhat embarrassing – but ultimately, this outcome is what most educated observers foresaw.

Denard’s overthrow early was a killer.  No one play completely destroyed Michigan on Saturday.  That’s impossible when you lose by 20 points.  But I can’t help but think “What if?” about that long pass from Robinson to Darryl Stonum in the first quarter.  Due to Denard Robinson’s running ability, he’s going to see a lot of Cover 0 with no deep safety.  He must take advantage of those opportunities.  Stonum is a blazer and probably would not have been caught from behind if Robinson had put the pass within reach.  If I remember correctly, that would have tied the game at 7-7.  Instead, Michigan went into halftime down 24-0.

Vincent Smith’s concussion looked ugly.  We’ve all seen our fair share of concussions on television (and/or in person).  The scariest are when players get knocked out cold, but it gives me a queasy feeling to see players stumbling around in a daze like Smith did when he tried to get up.  As commentator Chris Spielman said, kudos to Smith for having the toughness to try to get up after taking a knee to the head from 292-pound defensive end J.J. Watt.  Smith’s reaction was reminiscent of Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Stewart Bradley earlier this season, who was inexplicably allowed to re-enter the game almost immediately; luckily, Michigan’s training staff seems to care more about its players than the Eagles’.  Hopefully Smith heals quickly, but . . .

Injuries are mounting and chances against OSU are slimming.  Starting running back Vincent Smith will probably miss the Ohio State game due to his concussion.  Starting defensive end Craig Roh apparently had concussion-like symptoms, too.  Starting wide receiver Darryl Stonum was carted off the field with his left ankle heavily wrapped in ice.  Starting nose tackle Mike Martin missed much of the second half with his ongoing ankle problems.  Michigan’s top two cornerbacks (Troy Woolfolk, J.T. Floyd) are already out for the season due to ankle injuries.  This seems to be shaping up to be a more beaten-up unit against the Buckeyes than the 2007 team that featured a noodle-armed Chad Henne and a gimpy Mike Hart in the backfield.

The deployment of free safety Ray Vinopal was dumb.  First of all, it’s important to point out that Ray Vinopal has been an upgrade over Cameron Gordon at free safety.  There’s no question about that.  But why in the hell was Greg Robinson using Vinopal as a blitzing box safety?  This type of decision makes me want Robinson replaced at the end of the season.  Against the biggest, most physical, run-oriented team Michigan will face all season, it makes absolutely zero sense to put a 5’10”, 197 lb. (yeah, right) true freshman up at the line of scrimmage to take on a fullback, tight end, or pulling guard.  That’s ridamndiculous.  If you’re going to blitz from that position, put in Thomas Gordon.  Or send Jordan Kovacs from the edge.  There’s no excuse for that kind of matchup at the line of scrimmage, and that’s not Vinopal’s fault.  The Greg Robinson experiment needs to end.

Roy Roundtree is good.  Despite one inexplicable dropped pass on which he was wide open, Roundtree had another good day with 7 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown.  I’m looking forward to seeing him wear that #1 jersey.

Congratulations to Denard Robinson.  Robinson passed the NCAA record for most rushing yards by a quarterback, previously set by Air Force QB Beau Morgan in 1996.  He has now passed for 2,229 yards and rushed for 1,538 . . . and he still has two games to go.

Michigan State 34, Michigan 17



Michael Shaw carried 4 times for 29 yards in Saturday’s loss.


Well, that was ugly.  I guess this is what it looks like when Michigan’s offense gets shut down (or, in this case, shuts itself down).  I predicted an MSU victory in Friday’s game preview

, but I didn’t think it would be a blowout.  Unfortunately, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson reverted back to 2009 form at times on Saturday, throwing 3 interceptions and making poor reads in the running and passing games.  Here are some thoughts on yesterday’s performance.

Denard Robinson was exposed . . . a little bit.  This has been kind of a problem for Robinson all year long, but yesterday Michigan State’s defense took advantage of it: Denard doesn’t have great ball placement.  When defenses play zone coverage, his receivers do a good job of sitting down in a hole and waiting for the ball.  In turn, Denard does a good job of throwing to those holes in the zone, too.  However, when teams play man coverage, Denard’s accuracy on slants and crossing patterns is erratic.  Rather than throwing low and inside, he tends to throw the ball a) high or b) behind the receiver.  That trait was exposed on Saturday when two throws behind receivers were intercepted by trailing defenders.  In addition, another quarterback rule is “Don’t throw late over the middle of the field.”  Late in the game, Denard threw deep down the middle into double coverage after delaying a bit; the ball was intercepted and ended most of my hope that Michigan could pull one out.

Vincent Smith is not a short yardage running back.  He’s not.  Coach Rodriguez, put someone else – anyone – in at running back on 3rd-and-1.  This is just getting ridiculous.  How many times must you fail at gaining a yard with a 5’6″, 180 lb. running back before you put in somebody capable of breaking a tackle or pushing the pile?  Not only has it happened a few times this year, but Rodriguez also failed to put in a bigger, more powerful back in the 2009 Illinois game after Roy Roundtree was caught at the 1-yard line; Rodriguez left in a notoriously soft runner (Carlos Brown) instead of running Kevin Grady or Brandon Minor.  This is becoming a weekly, yearly problem.  Rodriguez obviously trusts freshman Stephen Hopkins enough to play him in a big rivalry game like this (Hopkins’s two carries went for 7 and 6 yards).  He’s 6’0″ and 227 lbs.  Give him the ball.

Run the ball.  Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry, and the running backs carried 13 times for 76 yards (5.8 yards per carry).  Late in the game, I understand going away from the pass.  Until then, Michigan should run run run when it’s working.

Maybe Tate Forcier should have played.  Forcier, 2009’s season-long starter, was sitting on the bench.  Robinson, a potential Heisman contender, was having a bad day.  Once the game reached a point where passing the ball every play was a given, I wouldn’t have minded if Forcier was inserted.  He’s a more accomplished passer and has better recognition skills.  He’s also 13-for-13 on the season and has some experience – and success – with late-game heroics (see: Indiana 2009, Notre Dame 2009, Michigan State 2009).  Robinson has improved greatly as a passer, but many of his passing stats can be attributed to the threat of the run.  Once defenses can sit back and play the pass almost exclusively, he’s going to be behind the eight ball.  I don’t think Forcier could have necessarily won the game for Michigan at that point, but he would have given the Wolverines a better chance, in my opinion.

Mike Martin is a beast.  Martin left the game late due to an illegal chop block that caused a lower leg injury.  However, before that he was making Michigan State center John Stipek look like a statue.  Martin repeatedly beat Stipek off the snap and into the A-gap of Martin’s choice.  Hopefully his injury isn’t too serious, because backup nose tackle Adam Patterson isn’t very good at all.

Rich Rodriguez’s clock management needs work. 

• At the end of the first half, Rodriguez made bad decisions.  After a run play on which the clock was left to run, Rodriguez had two timeouts but ran the ball on first down.  Instead of calling one of those timeouts immediately, he wasted precious seconds before calling the first.  Then Robinson completed a long pass down the right sideline to Martavious Odoms, leaving :03 seconds on the clock.  Really the only choice at that point was to send out Seth Broekhuizen for a field goal, which Broekhuizen made.  However, if the first timeout had been called quicker, Michigan would have had approximately :07 seconds on the clock; they could have taken a shot at the end zone and still had time to kick the field goal if that attempt failed. 
• At the end of the game, Rodriguez made another mistake.  With about 6 minutes left (if I remember correctly), Michigan was down by three scores and had a 3rd-and-19.  He called for an immediately checkdown to Michael Shaw, which gained 10 yards.  Okay, that’s fine.  I understand the theory.  Get half the yards on 3rd down, and then gain the other 9 yards on 4th down, right?  Nope, after the “give up” pass to Shaw, Rodriguez sent out his punting unit.  Down three scores with six minutes left . . . and you’re going to punt?  Go for the win!  What difference does it make if you fail to get a first down and MSU wins by a score of 41-17?  I’d rather have a chance to win the game than save face.

Michigan’s defense isn’t good enough to give up penalty yards, too.  The team only had three penalties for 35 yards on Saturday, but all three were against the defense.  Obi Ezeh and James Rogers each had a 15-yard facemask penalty, and Tony Anderson’s running into the kicker penalty at the end of the game sealed the Wolverines’ fate.

Michigan’s secondary is S-L-O-W.  Especially once James Rogers exited the game due to cramps, holy cow . . . I’ve never seen a slower secondary at Michigan.  Cam Gordon had no chance to catch Edwin Baker on Baker’s 61-yard touchdown run.  Rogers’s replacement at cornerback, Cullen Christian, has been noted by this blog (and many others’ observations) for his lack of speed; he was almost immediately beaten deep by Spartan receiver Mark Dell.  Cornerback J.T. Floyd and safety Jordan Kovacs both lack speed, too, although neither one was really exposed on Saturday.

Denard Robinson was off.  I don’t know what exactly was wrong.  He seemed to be moving fine.  He just wasn’t making the right reads in the passing or the running game.  It didn’t seem like he was seeing holes as quickly as in previous weeks.  Some credit goes to the Spartans for getting penetration with their defensive front four, but I don’t think Robinson was on top of his game.  And after throwing only one interception in the previous five weeks, he threw three today to an average MSU secondary.  It didn’t help that his receivers had subpar days, either.  I thought Roy Roundtree would have a big day – and he had opportunities – but Roundtree dropped two passes, and Robinson missed him a couple times, too.  He also overthrew a wide open Darryl Stonum in the endzone in the first quarter.  The deep ball needs work.

The defense continues to be crappy.  Michigan State’s quarterbacks completed 73% of their passes for 287 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions.  The Spartans averaged 5.9 yards per carry, and running backs Edwin Baker (6.7 yards per carry) and Le’Veon Bell (11.1) were outstanding.  The good news is that since MSU likes to run the ball, Michigan has now moved up to #119 in the country against the pass (ahead of only Tulsa).  The bad news is that Michigan has dropped ten spots to #112 in overall defense (New Mexico is better) since last week, on the strength of MSU’s 536 total yards.

I realize this post is quite negative, but on the heels of a blowout and three straight losses to Michigan State, I have a hard time finding positives.