Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

Tag: Roy Roundtree


24Nov 2012
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Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
Michigan is the #36 rushing offense in the country with 195 yards/game, but the rushing offense is perhaps in a dire situation.  Starting running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (514 yards, 5 touchdowns) will miss the rest of the season with a lower leg injury, which leaves the running back duties to Thomas Rawls (240 yards, 4 touchdowns, Vincent Smith (27 carries, 76 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Justice Hayes (16 carries, 83 yards, 1 touchdown).  The numbers don’t look too bad, but most of Rawls’s yards have come in garbage time and he has struggled against decent teams.  The wild card is Denard Robinson, who started at running back last week and – mostly from the quarterback position – has rushed for 1,044 yards and 6 touchdowns, good enough for the 15th-most yards in the nation despite missing 2.5 games due to injury.  He’s clearly the best running option, but he may not be able to run Michigan’s full complement of plays.  The Buckeyes have the #17 rush defense and have given up just 117 yards/game.  Defensive tackles Johnathan Hankins and Garrett Goebel don’t get a ton of penetration, but they are space eaters who have combined for 8 tackles for loss.  Defensive end John Simon and linebacker Ryan Shazier have each made 14.5 tackles for loss, and Shazier has improved significantly since last year, when he played as a freshman.  The Buckeyes should be able to handle Michigan’s interior offensive line, so the Wolverines will have to attack the edges and through the air.
Advantage: Ohio State


Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Michigan has been improving incrementally in the passing game and now sits at #95 with 201 yards/game; quarterback Devin Gardner has been the impetus for that rise, and he threw for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns against Iowa last week.  Wide receivers Jeremy Gallon (34 catches, 617 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Roy Roundtree (25 catches, 461 yards, 2 touchdowns) have stepped up their games recently, and tight end Devin Funchess has been a productive red zone target.  The Buckeyes are #84 in pass defense (250 yards/game), but #28 in pass efficiency defense.  Simon has made 9 sacks and Shazier has made 4.  Meanwhile, cornerback Travis Howard has 4 interceptions on the season, although 3 of them came in the Buckeyes’ first two games.  Michigan will have to pay extra attention to Simon and roll Gardner out to get him on the edge, but Gardner should be able to find some success with crossing routes and play action.
Advantage: Michigan


Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
The Wolverines give up 151 yards/game, good enough for 51st in the country.  However, that stat has been dropping since a couple rough outings early in the year.  The middle of Michigan’s defense has been stout, but starting defensive tackles Quinton Washington and William Campbell have combined for just 3 tackles for loss.  They don’t get consistent penetration, but they do hold their ground pretty well, which allows the inside linebackers to flow to the ball and make tackles.  Teams can gain yards running the ball, but usually in small increments.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have the #9 rushing offense and gain 245 yards/game, with quarterback Braxton Miller running for 110 yards/game and running back Carlos Hyde pretty close behind with 91 yards/game.  They like to run the option with Miller, who is very adept at pulling the ball out of Hyde’s belly and making things happen on the edge.  Michigan should keep Hyde pretty well in check early, until/unless Miller starts to gash them.  Miller is also very adept at tucking the ball and scrambling, which hurt Michigan last year; that will continue to be an issue, because the Wolverines don’t really have the athletes at defensive end to keep Miller hemmed in.
Advantage: Ohio State


Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Offense
Michigan is #1 in overall pass defense (152 yards/game), but #30 in pass efficiency defense.  Free safety Thomas Gordon and cornerback Raymon Taylor each have 2 interceptions to tie for the team lead, but nobody in the secondary is known as a true ball hawk or a shutdown player in coverage.  The linebackers are pretty solid in coverage, but Michigan lacks a strong pass rush.  Defensive end Craig Roh has 4 sacks, outside linebacker Jake Ryan has 3.5, and safety Jordan Kovacs is next with 2.  The Buckeyes are the #100 passing offense with 180 yards/game and they’re #57 in passing efficiency, but they still have dangerous players on the outside.  The Buckeyes abused Michigan’s back seven in last season’s matchup, although that was a different offensive system and they had DeVier Posey.  Wideout Corey Brown (52 catches, 574 yards, 2 touchdowns) is more of a possession guy, but Devin Smith (28 catches, 555 yards, 6 touchdowns) has some explosive abilities and might be just as good as Posey was.  Poor quarterback play has prevented Michigan from getting beaten too badly on the outside, but I’ve been dreading the moment when it would hurt Michigan; there’s a very good chance that the Wolverines’ shortcomings on the outside will be exposed on Saturday.  I don’t think Taylor and his counter J.T. Floyd will be able to stick with Smith for the entire game, and Michigan’s safeties are just so-so in coverage.  The Buckeyes will run the ball a lot, so they probably won’t sit back there and throw 50 times to win, but they’ll get some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Ohio State


Roster Notes

  • Michigan recruited OG Darryl Baldwin, RB Warren Ball, DT Michael Bennett, S Devan Bogard, CB Corey Brown, WR Corey Brown, S Christian Bryant, OT Taylor Decker, OT Kyle Dodson, RB Bri’onte Dunn, DT Garrett Goebel, LB Curtis Grant, CB Doran Grant, DT Joel Hale, RB Jordan Hall, OT Marcus Hall, DT Johnathan Hankins, TE Jeff Heuerman, QB Cardale Jones, QB Braxton Miller, DE Steve Miller, OG Joey O’Connor, LB David Perkins, DE Se’Von Pittman, CB Armani Reeves, DT Tommy Schutt, LB Ryan Shazier, WR Devin Smith, RB Rod Smith, DE Noah Spence, TE Jake Stoneburner, S Ron Tanner, TE Nick Vannett, and DT Adolphus Washington
  • Players from Michigan include Grosse Pointe (MI) Grosse Pointe Farms OT Reid Fragel and Detroit (MI) Southeastern DT Johnathan Hankins

Predictions

  • Denard Robinson starts at running back but gets a couple chances to throw
  • Devin Gardner gets flustered by the pass rush and forced into a couple bad throws
  • Ohio State makes some big plays over top of the defense
  • Michigan holds down Carlos Hyde well, but Miller wins the game with his feet
  • Ohio State 24, Michigan 17

A Look Back . . . 

12Nov 2012
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Michigan vs. Northwestern Awards

Devin Gardner was highly effective throughout Saturday’s victory (image via Bleacher Report)

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . no one. Most of the starters are playing fairly well, and the ones who aren’t don’t have much behind them.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Jerald Robinson.  I know former players keep picking him to break out each year, but he has done very little in his opportunities.  Maybe he’s just one of those guys who’s an all-star in practice but can’t get it done in games.  That happens sometimes.

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Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Kenny Demens.  Yeah, I know he’s a starter.  He was pulled out of the game for long stretches of the game, though, and Joe Bolden was inserted.  Bolden isn’t ready to play in these Big Ten games.  I like him and I think he’ll be good, but he’s just not there yet.  Demens played almost every snap last year and seemed to do fine, so in these tight games, I’d like to see the senior playing as much as possible.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Kain Colter.  Yeesh, that guy scared me.

Play of the game . . . Devin Gardner to Roy Roundtree.  That pass at the end of regulation, which was tipped by the defender and caught by Roundtree as he fell to the ground, set up the game-tying field goal by Brendan Gibbons.  It wasn’t the game-winning touchdown by Gardner or the game-sealing tackle by Kenny Demens, but those plays don’t happen without that highlight-reel catch by Roundtree.

MVP of the game . . . Devin Gardner.  I almost picked Roundtree, but Gardner accounted for four touchdowns (two rushing, two passing) and made a ton of huge plays in that game.  He scrambled for first downs, chucked the ball at Fitzgerald Toussaint to prevent a safety, threw the pass to Roundtree, and scored the winning touchdown.  He finished the game 16/29 for 286 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception; he also rushed 9 times for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns.

11Nov 2012
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Michigan 38, Northwestern 31

Kenny Demens makes the game-clinching tackle (image via AnnArbor.com)

Kenny Demens goes boom.  In Friday’s game preview, I predicted that Demens would have a big game.  It seemed like the coaches were trying to give him a breather by playing Joe Bolden a little bit, but I’m really not sold on Bolden being ready for Big Ten play right now; he’ll be good but he’s not yet.  Back to my point, Demens stepped up in a big way late in the game by making the final two tackles, including a thumping hit on Northwestern superback Tyris Jones to end the game.  Games against a team like Northwestern set up well for someone like Demens, who can take on Northwestern-caliber linemen and still make plays on interior runs.  He did get burned for a touchdown in pass coverage, but he was covering a wide receiver, which was hardly a fair contest.  Demens ended the game with 9 tackles and 2 tackles for loss.

Devin Gardner for Heisman? Okay, not really the Heisman, but Gardner has played really well in Denard Robinson’s stead.  Brady Hoke insists that the offense doesn’t really change when Gardner takes over for Robinson, but nobody who watches these games can actually believe that.  I felt bad for Kain Colter when he got hurt late in the game, but I didn’t feel bad for Northwestern, because Michigan was already down their starting quarterback.  For Gardner to be so inexperienced and still have the ability to come out and beat the #24 team in the country speaks well for him.  And, oh by the way, some guys really stepped up and made plays for Gardner.  The junior QB finished the game 16/29 for 286 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, along with 9 rushes for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Roy Roundtree is stepping up. I don’t know why, but Roundtree has stepped up his game now that Gardner is playing quarterback.  Robinson and Roundtree are close friends, so I’m sure it’s not related to a lack of personal chemistry.  It just seems like Roundtree has realized that he needs to step up to help out his inexperienced quarterback.  I wish it had happened earlier, but I’ll take it now.  He had 5 receptions for 139 yards, and his final reception in regulation was a juggling catch he made while the Northwestern defensive back interfered with him. (No interference was called, but it should have been.)

Michigan won the game in the trenches.  Brady Hoke’s philosophy seems to be that he wants to wear teams down, and Michigan will do so more consistently when the offensive line improves.  Right now Michigan’s interior offensive linemen are just average, but by the fourth quarter, they had sufficiently worn down the Wildcats’ interior.  Toussaint started to get some running room . . . which is why I was frustrated with Michigan’s play call on the penultimate regulation drive, after Dennis Norfleet had returned a kickoff to Michigan’s 47-yard line.  Al Borges had overused the play action pass up to that point, because Michigan hadn’t been running the ball.  So when Borges called a post-wheel (for Gallon and Funchess, respectively), Northwestern hadn’t learned to respect the run yet.  He put the game on Gardner’s shoulders, and while Gardner has been playing well, he hadn’t been in a situation this year when Michigan needed  a crunch-time drive from him.  Michigan could have moved the ball by running on the interior with about four minutes left and down by three points.  What happened the next time Michigan had a chance to run it, in overtime?  Fitzgerald Toussaint ran for 5 yards, then 3 yards, and then Gardner ran a bootleg for the game-winning touchdown.

Stop kicking to Venric Mark!  Mark is one of the most explosive players in the Big Ten, but Michigan’s kickers and punters couldn’t seem to help themselves from kicking to him.  He burned Michigan for a 96-yard kickoff return late in the game, but one of the Wildcats held Brandin Hawthorne and got flagged for it.

Northwestern doesn’t throw well except against Michigan. Backup quarterback Trevor Siemian completed 6/7 passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Kain Colter was slightly less successful at 8/14 for 96 yards and 1 touchdown.  Michigan struggled with the pace of Northwestern’s offense, and the Wolverines were beaten on the edge several times (partly because of numerous obvious holding calls that weren’t noticed by the referees).  Northwestern could run and pass on Michigan’s defense, and there was no consistent answer until overtime.  That answer was, of course, Kenny Demens.

Jordan Kovacs is now #11.  I don’t really care.  It’s just a number.  Before the game Kovacs was honored by being given the #11 jersey that was previously worn by the three Wistert brothers – Francis, Albert, and Alvin.  I’ve seen the argument that this prevents Kovacs from becoming a legend jersey down the road, but come on, Kovacs isn’t a legend.  He’s a walk-on who turned into a pretty good player, but that doesn’t make him a legend.  I also don’t think Michigan should give Legend jerseys to true freshmen, who still have three years to taint the number with drunk driving arrests, stealing laptops, etc.

Michigan is 7-3.  The team and fans should consider themselves slightly lucky to come out of this weekend with a victory.  Being 7-3 at this juncture isn’t too bad, considering that Michigan has been without its starting quarterback for the last 2.5 games.  Regardless of the opponents, they have scored 35 and 38 points with the backup QB.  The defense has picked up its game at critical junctures, and the offense is doing enough to make games winnable, at least when Russell Bellomy isn’t in the game.  The Wolverines should  beat Iowa, and that would lead up to the ballyhooed game against Ohio State.