Oak Park (MI) Oak Park OT Ja’Raymond Hall is Michigan’s top-ranked recruit for 2017
Scout released its initial top 300 for the class of 2017 (LINK). The only appearance of a Michigan prospect is OT Ja’Raymond Hall at #198.
Hit the jump for the full list of Michigan offerees.
Brandon Peters has made a huge leap in Scout’s rankings
Scout released its top 300 prospects for the class of 2016 (LINK). Here’s what it looked like in June 2015 (LINK).
Movement for Michigan commits:
Hit the jump for the full list.
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| Indianapolis (IN) Ben Davis running back Chris Evans is the #164 player in the country (image via 247Sports.com) |
Scout updated their top 300 players for 2016 (LINK). The last update I posted was in April (LINK).
Movement for Michigan commits:
– Erik Swenson dropped from #102 to #124
– Matt Falcon remained at #147
– Chris Evans appears at #164. I’m not sure where he was in April since he had not been offered.
– Michael Onwenu dropped from #167 to #168
– Brandon Peters remained at #283
The rest of Michigan’s offerees:
5-stars:
1. Rashan Gary – DT – NJ
3. Shea Patterson – QB – LA (Ole Miss)
6. Greg Little – OT – TX (Texas A&M)
7. Nate Craig – WR – FL
8. Caleb Kelly – LB – CA
10. Dexter Lawrence – DT – NC
11. Jacob Eason – QB – WA (Georgia)
12. Levonta Taylor – CB – VA (Florida State)
13. Ed Oliver – DT – TX (Houston)
16. Kendell Jones – DT – TX (Alabama)
17. Mique Juarez – LB – CA (USC)
18. Jack Jones – ATH – CA
20. Michael Menet – OT – PA (Penn State)
21. Kareem Walker – RB – NJ (Ohio State)
23. Tyler Vaughns – WR – CA
Hit the jump for the 4-star prospects.
4-stars:
24. Ben Bredeson – OT – WI
25. Justin Madubuike – DE – TX
26. Devin Duvernay – WR – TX
27. Tommy Kraemer – OT – OH (Notre Dame)
34. Binjimen Victor – WR – FL
36. Lyndell Wilson – LB – AL
38. Willie Allen – OT – LA
39. Marlon Davidson – DE – AL
40. Brandon Jones – S – TX
42. Kaden Smith – TE – TX (Stanford)
43. Charlie Woerner – TE – GA
44. Theo Howard – WR – CA (Oregon)
45. Ben Davis – LB – AL
46. Janarius Robinson – DE – FL (Florida State)
47. Boss Tagaloa – DT – CA
49. Miles Sanders – RB – PA (Penn State)
51. Deontay Anderson – S – TX
53. Jaquan Yulee – LB – VA (Alabama)
54. David Long – CB – CA
55. Jared Mayden – CB – TX
56. E.J. Price – OT – GA (Georgia)
58. Ahmir Mitchell – WR – NJ
59. Jeffrey McCulloch – LB – TX
61. Demetris Robertson – WR – GA
62. Liam Eichenberg – OT – OH (Notre Dame)
65. Lavert Hill – CB – MI (Penn State)
66. Curtis Robinson – LB – CA (Stanford)
67. Dontavious Jackson – LB – TX
69. K.J. Costello – QB – CA (Stanford)
70. Terrance Davis – OG – MD
71. Devin White – LB – LA
73. Trayvon Mullen – S – FL
78. Isaac Nauta – TE – GA (Florida State)
79. Isaiah Chambers – DE – TX
81. Auston Robertson – DE – IN (Michigan State)
84. Collin Johnson – WR – TX (Texas)
85. Austin Mack – WR – IN (Ohio State)
89. Jake Hausmann – TE – OH (Ohio State)
90. Dylan Crawford – WR – CA
92. Ben Cleveland – OG – GA (Georgia)
95. Lokeni Toailoa – LB – CA (UCLA)
97. Scott Bracey – WR – VA (Duke)
100. Jordan Elliott – DT – TX (Houston)
103. Chris Daniels – DT – TX
106. Malik Henry – QB – FL (Florida State)
107. Camilo Eifler – LB – CA
110. Nigel Knott – CB – MS
111. Josh King – DE – IL (Michigan State)
112. Jordan Fuller – CB – NJ
115. Trevon Sidney – WR – CA
117. Sam Bruce – WR – FL (Miami)
118. Jaylon Jones – CB – TX
120. Devin Asiasi – TE – CA
121. Jarrett Guarantano – QB – NJ (Tennessee)
122. Byron Murphy – CB – AZ
123. Mecole Hardman – WR – GA
124. Erik Swenson – OT – IL (Michigan)
127. Jonah Williams – OT – CA (Alabama)
128. Jean Delance – OT – TX
131. Donnie Corley – WR – MI
133. Erick Fowler – DE – TX
135. Steven Smothers – WR – MD
137. Chris Owens – OG – TX (Alabama)
139. Eli Stove – WR – FL (Auburn)
143. Diondre Overton – WR – NC
144. Devery Hamilton – OT – MD
145. Michael Jordan – OT – MI (Ohio State)
146. Andrew Pryts – S – PA
147. Matt Falcon – RB – MI (Michigan)
154. Luke Farrell – TE – OH
155. Xavier Kelly – DE – KS
158. Keyshon Camp – DT – FL
160. Lamar Jackson – S – CA
163. Rahshaun Smith – DE – FL (Clemson)
164. Chris Evans – RB – IN (Michigan)
165. Jamal Pettigrew – TE – LA (LSU)
168. Michael Onwenu – OG – MI (Michigan)
173. Jacob Mathis – TE – FL
177. Naquan Jones – DT – IL (Michigan State)
178. Amani Bledsoe – DE – KS
180. Freddie Swain – WR – FL
181. Cole Van Lanen – OT – WI
188. Demetric Vance – S – MI (Michigan State)
189. Justin Layne – WR – OH (Michigan State)
190. Landon Dickerson – OT – NC
191. C.J. Pollard – S – CA
194. Shaquille Quarterman – LB – FL (Miami)
195. Julian Okwara – LB – NC (Notre Dame)
196. Bryce Mathews – OT – TN
203. Daelin Hayes – LB – MI (USC)
205. Lamar Winston – LB – OR
209. Michael Eletise – OG – HI
212. Naseir Upshur – TE – PA
216. Levi Onwuzurike – DE – TX
217. Antonio Williams – RB – NC (Wisconsin)
218. Damar Hamlin – CB – PA
220. Dwayne Haskins, Jr. – QB – MD (Maryland)
224. Brad Hawkins – WR – NJ
225. Frank Martin II – OT – CA (USC)
227. Patrick Bethel – DE – FL
230. Brian Burns – DE – FL
237. Steffon McKnight – WR – CA
238. Jay-Jay McCargo – OT – VA (North Carolina)
239. Khalid Kareem – DE – MI
246. Calvin Bundage – S – OK
248. Marquel Dismuke – S – CA
250. Eric Cuffee – CB – TX
251. John Broussard – CB – AL (Auburn)
254. Josh Imatorbhebhe – WR – GA (USC)
255. Desmond Fitzpatrick – WR – MI (Louisville)
259. Terrell Hall – DE – DC (Ohio State)
264. Thiyo Lukusa – OG – MI (Michigan State)
265. Wayne Davis – CB – VA
267. Darrian Franklin – LB – CA
269. Carlin Fils-Aime – RB – FL
272. Connor Murphy – DE – AZ
277. Cary Angeline – TE – PA
280. Chase Claypool – WR – BC
283. Brandon Peters – QB – IN (Michigan)
289. Bryson Young – DE – CA
290. Clark Yarbrough – OT – VA (Stanford)
297. Carlo Kemp – DE – CO
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| Marcus Mariota |
Questions often get raised about which recruiting site is the most accurate. There might be many ways to calculate, and some of them are beyond the scope of this here blog. But one way to analyze recruiting rankings is by looking at the star ratings of each first round draft pick, which I have done below. Each of the four recruiting sites was mined, although admittedly, 247 Sports is at a bit of a disadvantage since they are the newest site; fifth year seniors were not evaluated by 247 Sports coming out of high school.
1. Jameis Winston – QB – Florida State (Buccaneers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4
2. Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon (Titans)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4
3. Dante Fowler, Jr. – OLB/DE – Florida (Jaguars)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5
Hit the jump for the star ratings of the other 29 first-rounders.
4. Amari Cooper – WR – Alabama (Raiders)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4
5. Brandon Scherff – OT – Iowa (Redskins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Not ranked
6. Leonard Williams – DE – USC (Jets)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4
7. Kevin White – WR – West Virginia (Bears)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 3
8. Vic Beasley – OLB/DE – Clemson (Falcons)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked
9. Ereck Flowers – OG – Miami (Giants)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4
10. Todd Gurley – RB – Georgia (Rams)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4
11. Trae Waynes – CB – Michigan State (Vikings)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 2
12. Danny Shelton – DT – Washington (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3
13. Andrus Peat – OT – Stanford (Saints)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4
14. DeVante Parker – WR – Louisville (Dolphins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3
15. Melvin Gordon – RB – Wisconsin (Chargers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4
16. Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest (Texans)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked
17. Arik Armstead – DE – Oregon (49ers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5
18. Marcus Peters – CB – Washington (Chiefs)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3
19. Cameron Erving – C – Florida State (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked
20. Nelson Agholor – WR – USC (Eagles)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4
21. Cedric Ogbuehi – OT – Texas A&M (Bengals)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4
22. Alvin “Bud” Dupree – DE – Kentucky (Steelers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3
23. Shane Ray – DE – Missouri (Broncos)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3
24. D.J. Humphries – OT – Florida (Cardinals)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5
25. Shaq Thompson – LB – Washington (Panthers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5
26. Breshad Perriman – WR – Central Florida (Ravens)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 2
27. Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut (Cowboys)
ESPN: Unranked
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: Unranked
28. Laken Tomlinson – OG – Duke (Lions)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked
29. Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami (Colts)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4
30. Damarious Randall – S – Arizona State (Packers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3
31. Stephone Anthony – LB – Clemson (Saints)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5
32. Malcolm Brown – DT – Texas (Patriots)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5
CONCLUSIONS
The average star rating of a first round pick for each recruiting site:
1. Scout: 3.65625
2. Rivals: 3.59375
3. ESPN: 3.3125
4. 247 Sports: 3.09375*
The average rating for 247 Sports is thrown off by so many unranked prospects. Six prospects were not ranked by 247 while they were still getting their feet under them. ESPN, Rivals, and Scout have no excuse since they have been around for a longer time period. Interestingly, if those six prospects are removed and you average the ratings of the other 26 players chosen, the average ranking jumps to 3.807, easily the highest of the four. That’s not a fair comparison because they could have completely biffed on the other six prospects, but it’s an indication that 247’s ratings should be taken seriously. In my opinion – and not only because of this study – the 247 Sports site is surpassing its counterparts.
Another weakness is this type of study is the number of 5-star ratings given. Typically, Scout gives out 40+ of those ratings, whereas ESPN gives out only 10-20. Rivals and 247 Sports give out roughly enough to fill out the first round of an NFL draft (somewhere around 30). This gives Scout somewhat of an advantage in an analysis like this, and it gives ESPN a disadvantage.
Scout’s biggest goof seems to be Melvin Gordon, who was a 4-star to two other sites and was going to Wisconsin. Any running back headed to Wisconsin has a good chance of being a mighty fine player, but the signs were there for Gordon and Scout missed them. However, Scout did label Leonard Williams a 5-star prospect when no one else did, and they also had DeVante Parker as a 4-star when others saw him as a 3-star.
Rivals did well to name Danny Shelton a 4-star (everyone else had him as a 3-star) and they were the only ones to give Nelson Agholor a 5-star rating (seriously, how did everyone else miss out on that?). Overall, Rivals seemed to be the most consistent with the fewest outliers.
For being such a large outlet, ESPN misses on too many players. Looking just at the top ten – the cream of the crop – they ranked Winston, Mariota, Fowler, and Flowers lower than any of their counterparts, aside from Winston’s 4-star ranking to fledgling 247 Sports. They also failed to even evaluate Byron Jones.
Overall, what can we take away? The people running 247 Sports seem to know what they’re doing, and it will be interesting to see the results as they get more experience, widen their net, and increase the sample size. Scout and Rivals both do a pretty good job and are pretty consistent without too many outliers. ESPN is consistently the least reliable source, both in up-to-date information and ability to evaluate players.
(On a side note, I probably spent more time on Scout’s site than ever before while looking up these rankings. I must say that even though they revamped their site in the last year, that is still absolutely the least navigable site there is. I have never had a subscription to Scout and use it the least, and I cannot understand why anyone would tolerate paying money to deal with that. It boggles the mind to think that such a large website could have such terrible programming.)
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| Downers Grove (IL) South offensive tackle Erik Swenson is the #102 player |
Scout updated their top 300 players for the class of 2016 (LINK) a couple days ago. Here are a list of Michigan commits:
– Erik Swenson is #102
– Matt Falcon is #147
– Brandon Peters is #283
Hit the jump for all of Michigan’s targets on the list.
5-stars:
1. Rashan Gary – DT – New Jersey
5. Greg Little – OT – Texas (Texas A&M)
6. Shea Patterson – QB – Lousiana (Ole Miss)
8. Caleb Kelly – LB – California
10. Nate Craig – WR – Florida (Auburn)
11. Jacob Eason – QB – Washington (Georgia)
12. Kareem Walker – RB – New Jersey (Ohio State)
13. Ed Oliver – DT – Texas
16. Levonta Taylor – CB – Virginia (Florida State)
4-stars:
21. Ben Bredeson – OT – Wisconsin
22. Justin Madubuike – DE – Texas
25. Dexter Lawrence – DT – North Carolina
26. Devin Duvernay – WR – Texas
31. Michael Menet – OT – Pennsylvania
32. Binjimen Victor – WR – Florida
33. Tommy Kraemer – OT – Ohio (Notre Dame)
36. Boss Tagaloa – DT – California
37. Willie Allen – OT – Louisiana
38. Ben Davis – LB – Alabama
39. Brandon Jones – S – Texas
42. Mique Juarez – LB – California (USC)
44. Charlie Woerner – TE – Georgia
46. Kaden Smith – TE – Texas (Stanford)
47. Jack Jones – ATH – California
48. E.J. Price – OT – Georgia (Georgia)
49. Ahmir Mitchell – ATH – New Jersey
50. Marlon Davidson – DE – Alabama
51. Curtis Robinson – LB – California (Stanford)
52. Jeffrey McCulloch – LB – Texas
53. Demetris Robertson – ATH – Alabama (Alabama)
54. Jaquan Yulee – LB – Virginia
55. K.J. Costello – QB – California (Stanford)
56. Jared Mayden – CB – Texas
57. Janarius Robinson – DE – Florida (Florida State)
59. Clark Yarbrough – OT – Virginia
64. Collin Johnson – WR – Texas (Texas)
66. Liam Eichenberg – OT – Ohio
67. Dylan Crawford – WR – California
68. Dee Anderson – WR – Texas
71. Terrance Davis – OT – Maryland
76. Ben Cleveland – OG – Georgia (Georgia)
80. Isaiah Chambers – DE – Texas
81. Isaac Nauta – TE – Georgia (Florida State)
82. Jordan Elliott – DT – Texas
83. Lokeni Toiailoa – LB – California (UCLA)
84. Austin Mack – WR – Indiana
85. Trayvon Mullen – CB – Florida
87. Dontavious Jackson – LB – Texas
88. Auston Robertson – DE – Indiana
89. Devin Asiasi – TE – California
91. Devin White – LB – Louisiana
92. Jake Hausmann – TE – Ohio (Ohio State)
96. Theo Howard – WR – California (Oregon)
98. Miles Sanders – RB – Pennsylvania (Penn State)
99. Chris Daniels – DT – Texas
102. Erik Swenson – OT – Illinois (Michigan)
103. Josh King – DE – Illinois
104. Erick Fowler – DE – Texas
107. Malik Henry – QB – California (Florida State)
108. Sam Bruce – WR – Florida (Miami)
110. Mike Williams – DT – Texas
111. Jaylon Jones – CB – Texas
112. Nigel Knott – CB – Mississippi
113. Scott Bracey – WR – Virginia (Duke)
114. Donnie Corley – WR – Michigan
116. Jonah Williams – OT – California (Alabama)
122. Jordan Fuller – CB – New Jersey
126. Jarrett Guarantano – QB – New Jersey (Tennessee)
134. Steven Smothers – WR – Maryland
135. Julian Okwara – DE – North Carolina (Notre Dame)
144. Brad Hawkins – WR – New Jersey
145. Michael Jordan – OT – Michigan
146. Devery Hamilton – OT – Maryland
147. Matt Falcon – RB – Michigan (Michigan)
149. Amani Bledsoe – DE – Kansas
152. Rahshaun Smith – DE – Florida (Clemson)
154. Luke Farrell – TE – Ohio
157. Camilo Eifler – LB – California
159. Mecole Hardman – ATH – Georgia
160. Trevon Sideny – ATH – California
163. Eli Stove – WR – Florida
167. Michael Onwenu – DT – Michigan
170. Lavert Hill – CB – Michigan (Penn State)
171. Shaquille Quarterman – LB – Florida (Miami)
172. Antonio Williams – RB – North Carolina (Wisconsin)
174. C.J. Pollard – S – California
179. Justin Layne – WR – Ohio
184. John Broussard – CB – Alabama
187. Cole Van Lanen – OT – Wisconsin
201. Daelin Hayes – LB – Michigan (USC)
203. Xavier Kelly – DE – Kansas
208. Frank Martin II – OT – California (USC)
212. Naseir Upshur – TE – Pennsylvania
213. Jacob Mathis – TE – Florida
214. Darrian Franklin – LB – California
219. Patrick Bethel – DE – Florida
225. David Long – CB – California
228. Levi Onwuzurike – DE – Texas
235. Wayne Davis – CB – Virginia
236. Steffon McKnight – WR – California
237. Marquel Dismuke – S – California (Cal)
238. Dwayne Haskins – QB – Maryland
239. Khalid Kareem – DE – Michigan
243. Calvin Bundage – S – Oklahoma
250. Eric Cuffee – CB – Texas
251. Cameron Lewis – S – Louisiana (LSU)
256. Thiyo Lukusa – OG – Michigan
259. Cary Angeline – TE – Pennsylvania
260. Desmond Fitzpatrick – WR – Michigan (Louisville)
264. Damar Hamlin – CB – Pennsylvania
266. Terrell Hall – DE – Washington, D.C. (Ohio State)
268. LaMar Winston – LB – Oregon
271. Connor Murphy – DE – Arizona
277. Demetric Vance – S – Michigan
279. Naquan Jones – DT – Illinois
280. Bryson Young – DE – California
283. Brandon Peters – QB – Indiana (Michigan)
285. Simi Fehoko – WR – Utah
291. Jauan Williams – OT – Washington, D.C.
292. Tavares Chase – WR – Florida
293. Jordan Woods – DE – Florida
