Previously: M Rush Offense vs. OSU Rush Defense
MICHIGAN
Michigan is #87 in passing offense (211 yards/game), which sounds pretty bad. However, they’re #111 in passing attempts (272). Shea Patterson’s efficiency numbers are what stand out. The Wolverines are #14 in passing efficiency and tied at #20 in yards per attempt (8.5). Starting quarterback Shea Patterson is completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,177 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions; in his last four games, he has 8 touchdowns and 1 pick, with that one interception coming on an RPO last week against Indiana.
I’ve posted about the evenness with which he has spread out the ball, but I’ll emphasize it again: Michigan’s top two wideouts (Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones) and top tight end (Zach Gentry) all have between 29-32 receptions and 461-477 yards. It’s very interesting how consistent that distribution has been over the last several weeks. Various other receivers have shown a penchant for making big plays (tight end Nick Eubanks, wide receiver Ronnie Bell, and wide receiver Oliver Martin), but they have been targeted inconsistently.
The Wolverines are #24 in sacks allowed with 15 so far, which meshes well with their #25 ranking in Sack Rate. They’re #45 on Standard Downs, but #21 on Passing Downs.
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes are #77 in passing defense (237 yards allowed/game), but they’re #46 in passing efficiency defense. They’re tied for #70 in passing yards allowed per attempt (7.4) and tied for #83 in interceptions. Aside from a blip against a terrible offense in Michigan State two weeks ago, teams have averaged 14, 8.8, and 8.1 yards per attempt against them in the past four weeks, with 5 touchdowns and 1 pick.
Ohio State’s defensive backfield consists of a bunch of star recruits who have not necessarily developed well in college. The corners are junior Kendall Sheffield (6’0″, 183 lbs.) and redshirt junior Damon Arnette (6’0″, 195), while the safeties are junior Jordan Fuller (6’2″, 207) and redshirt freshman Shaun Wade (6’1″, 185). Sophomore Jeffrey Okudah (6’1″, 185) also plays quite a bit at corner. It’s a defensive backfield that has allowed a lot of big plays, and no one has played at a particularly high level.
The Buckeyes are tied at #19 in sacks (2.82 per game), led by junior defensive tackle Dre’mont Jones (6’3″, 285) with 7.5 and sophomore Chase Young (6’5″, 265) with 6.5. Young in particular has been problematic for offenses because of his quickness and length. Ohio State is #31 in Sack Rate, including #69 on standard downs and #20 on passing downs.
OVERALL
Michigan has been very efficient in the passing game, but they have not faced many teams capable of rushing the passer like Ohio State. The closest comparison is Penn State, against whom Michigan was 11/17 for 2 touchdowns and 0 picks. Last year Michigan had a good game plan against the Buckeyes, but quarterback John O’Korn was unable to execute. This year the coaching is mostly the same, but Michigan has improved at every relevant position group – offensive line, tight end, wide receiver, and quarterback. Michigan should be able to scheme some chunk plays, but the offensive line will have to play a good game to keep Patterson clean. This should be a positive matchup for Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan
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We need Shea to play his best game in a winged helmet. Going on the road has been tough enough, but The Shoe in a rivalry is another story!
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good post. go blue
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