Jake Butt
Not bad for a debut. Michigan was on its way to a very uninspiring debut with just 3 points at the half, but things picked up a little bit from there. This was a 5-7 team last year that had some things to clean up and some areas to improve. I think several of those areas have taken steps forward, but obviously not enough. Last year the Wolverines lost 26-10 without a lot of fight (Michigan’s only touchdown in 2014 was a Willie Henry interception return.) This year they scored a couple offensive touchdowns after halftime and had a chance to win/tie the game with their final drive. I’m disappointed in the loss, but things are looking up.
Hit the jump for the remainder of the post.
Running back is better but not great. It boggles my mind that after all these years, Michigan’s best option at running back is De’Veon Smith (17 carries, 47 yards, 2.76 yards/carry). I like explosive players, which you probably know if you’ve been reading my blog for any length of time. I watched South Carolina’s Shon Carson – a 3-star backup running back – burst 48 yards up the sideline for a touchdown against UNC last night. When was the last time Michigan had that kind of burst at the running back position, aside from when Denard Robinson moonlighted at tailback after his elbow injury? Smith runs hard and breaks a few tackles, which is something that can’t be overlooked. But he does not have great vision, and if we’re being honest, he’s too slow to get to some of the holes that open up anyway. Fans are known for always wanting the backup QB to play, but ever since Rich Rodriguez came to town, I’m the oddball who always wants the backup running back. Ty Isaac (4 carries, 12 yards, 3.0 yards/carry) needs to play more, in my opinion.
I’m not worried about Jake Rudock. As mentioned above, lots of football fans prefer the backup quarterback. Be careful what you wish for, people. We’ve been down Shane Morris Avenue before. It leads not to the promised land, but to a dead end that says “U-turn Only” on a road paved with broken glass. This is not to say that Rudock (27/43, 279 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions) was great, but he threw more touchdowns in the second half of the opener than Morris has thrown in two seasons of backup action. Fans on Twitter were most upset by the fact that Rudock missed a few deep balls (two to Jehu Chesson, one to Amara Darboh), but that chemistry may come with more reps since Rudock did not start practicing with Michigan until the beginning of August. Rudock has hit those deep balls at Iowa before, so we know who can do it. Some Twitterers were arguing that Shane Morris would have completed those balls, but there is exactly zero evidence – aside from a few completions over the head of Dennis Norfleet in the spring game – to back up that assertion. Rudock is the best quarterback on the roster.
Jabrill Peppers is on his way. There were a couple blips in the first half when Utah receivers caught passes in front of Peppers, but while Twitter got concerned, it didn’t worry me. Guys got slightly open, and Peppers tackled immediately. In the second half, Peppers didn’t get picked on in coverage, couldn’t be blocked, and finished with 8 tackles and 2 tackles for loss. Add in a sprinting catch of a punt to save some yardage, plus a 36-yard kickoff return, and I think he’s clearly on the path to being a very good player. While people might be doubting him a little bit, I bet that if some other redshirt freshman or freshman defensive back (say, Keith Washington or Tyree Kinnel) had made those same plays, Michigan fans would be raving about the player’s future potential.
The receiving corps is better. Whatever new strength coach Kevin Tolbert is doing, I like it. I thought the team looked bigger, faster, and stronger, especially wide receivers Amara Darboh (8 catches, 101 yards, 1 touchdown) and Jehu Chesson (3 catches, 22 yards). Some of those catch-and-run opportunities would have turned into 1- or 2-yard gains last year, but those guys were able to take off and run through some tackles. I thought former wide receivers coach Jeff Hecklinski did a pretty good job of developing some of those wideouts in the past four years, but Chesson and Darboh looked more aggressive and more capable of getting extra yards. Freshman Grant Perry (3 catches, 41 yards) overcame some early struggles in order to help out Rudock on the last couple drives.
Chris Wormley could be great. I feel like this has been the story on Chris Wormley since he was in the middle of his high school career, but he looks awesome for stretches and then disappears. He was tearing Utah’s offensive line to shreds early in the game, and then seemed to lose some steam. He ended the game with 3 tackles, all of which were TFL’s. If he and the other defensive linemen can go hard for 60 minutes, then this defensive line has a chance to dominate some games. They put a decent amount of pressure on quarterback Travis Wilson (although they only got 1 sack), and star running back Devontae Booker was held to 69 yards.
Let’s talk about Booker and Utah. All I kept hearing about leading up to the game was Devontae Booker. He’s a good player, but I don’t understand the hype. Over the past two years, he has 33 carries for 103 yards against Michigan, which is 3.12 yards/carry. The guy who really makes a difference for Utah’s offense is Wilson, who can keep plays alive, can run the ball, and generally finds his open guy. On the backbreaking touchdown run, Utah called a good play against cover zero and lucked into a misstep at linebacker. Defensively, I thought Utah’s game plan was solid – take away the underneath stuff, and dare Rudock to beat you over the top. I think Rudock can beat teams over the top at times, and his arm strength was plenty good on a few of those deep balls – they just didn’t connect. The underneath throws were challenged and covered pretty well, and their game plan worked for them.
Is Joe Bolden an “almost” guy? We’ve been watching Bolden for four years now, and I’m still not completely sold on the guy. Too many times over the years, he seems like a guy who almost gets there, almost makes the tackle, almost tips the ball. Granted, he makes a lot of tackles (13 last night, 102 last year), and he had a wow play last night where Booker jumped in the air to him before Bolden slammed him to the turf. Still, I would think a starter who has been playing major minutes for four years would be a little more consistent. It seems like he should have 17 or 18 tackles some games.
The offensive line is a question mark. I’m not certain, but it seemed like there were still some issues working out the kinks with the offensive line last night. Cole struggled early and was replaced by Logan Tuley-Tillman for a stretch, I believe. Ben Braden had some problems in the run game. Graham Glasgow returned to his ways of 2013 with a snap infraction. David Dawson got some late run at left tackle, I think. The right side of the line looked pretty solid with Kyle Kalis and Erik Magnuson, and the whole line did well in pass protection all night (43 pass attempts, 0 sacks), but the running game was not consistent.
#johnbaxtermagic. You could tell that Michigan has improved on their special teams in a lot of ways. Michigan doesn’t have a consistent kicker (Kenny Allen won the kicking job, but was 1/2 on field goals), but the coverage units were good and they have moved to the spread punt with a big guy like Logan Tuley-Tillman as a personal protector. Blake O’Neill is a good directional punter who averaged 43.3 yards/punt, including a beautiful knuckler that Dymonte Thomas caught at Utah’s 3-yard line. (Speaking of Thomas, that guy still has speed and should be a special teams demon even if he can’t crack the starting lineup on defense.) Michigan got that 36-yard return by Peppers on the only returnable kick. The Wolverines almost blocked a punt or two. However, I was not a fan of the setup for the final onside kick. To the play side, Michigan put speedsters Jehu Chesson and Brian Cole behind four fullback/tight end types, and I simply don’t think that’s enough speed or athleticism at the point of attack.
The uniforms. I liked ’em.
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“I bet that if some other redshirt freshman or freshman defensive back (say, Keith Washington or Tyree Kinnel) had made those same plays, Michigan fans would be raving about the player’s future potential.”
Funny… folks expect more out of an all-everything, #1CB in the country recruit (and top 5 overall player) than a random 3 star…
The correct comparisons for Peppers are guys like Jalen Tabor and Adoree Jackson, not guys like Kinnel or Keith Washington.
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This is about Peppers’s third full game, right? Adoree’ Jackson had 1 catch for -4 yards, 2 tackles for loss, and 27 yards/kickoff return in his third game (which was against Boston College).
The point is that the guy has not played much football, but he did some things to get excited about. If the standard is being a lockdown cornerback from day one who doesn’t allow a single completion, then almost everyone is a failure.
Thanks for visiting my blog, by the way.
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I think Peppers looked good for only his third game.
…but that is irrelevant to the claim you made.
If Keith Washington made those plays people would be raving because he was greatly exceeding expectations.
When Jabrill Peppers (or Adoree Jackson or Jalen Tabor) makes those plays no one is going to rave because they’re merely meeting expectations.
If your Ford Escort does 0-60 in 8 seconds, you’ll rave about what a great example of it’s breed it is… if your Ferrari Testarossa does 0-60 in 5 seconds – it’s just expected performance.
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You’re trying too hard, man. I never said we should be raving about Peppers. I said that I was not concerned about Peppers, and I said that we would be raving if other young defensive backs had made those same plays.
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Thunder,
Do we have a little of the Chicken or the Egg here between RB (specifically Smith) and the OL?
Based on your experience if you were a DC and you saw Rudock, Kerridge and Smith in the backfield would you even worry about anything outside the tackles, other than a WR?
I know the OL is struggling to open holes, but how much of that is the DL and LB’s just plugging the middle? they don’t even have to worry about the edges. I think many DE’s could cover smith out of the backfield.
Speed kills and we have none right now.
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From what I saw last night, the blame goes largely on the Oline. Lots of teams do much better than we did with power backs who don’t have much speed or ability to turn the corner. More speed would certainly help, though, but it would have been nice if at least one back last night had shown some instincts, and if the OC had called anything but bland, predictable running plays.
I hope the coaches turn Johnson loose soon…he may not be the cure-all, but I feel like he’s our best option at RB…better speed, inside and outside, hits holes quicker, and better instincts and cutting ability than any of the other guys.
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Fair point. I should have added that we also have a qb (for at least last night) who could not throw the ball downfield very well. So when you add that to a very slow backfield. It has to shrink the field for the coordinator.
It would be nice if the Oline could have opened up some holes on power runs.
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Nice write up — candid and fair.
If I operate just on the “feel” of things, last night had quite a different feel from last year. Last year it was almost always run on 1st down for a loss, then some lackluster play to go to 3rd and 8 or so, then nothing. But last night I had a sense that the first down production was better (I’d have to chart that out to see), and that even if 3rd and somewhat long there was always the chance to get 1st with Rudock to Butt, or Rudock to one of his receivers out in the flat.
Speaking of Rudock, I like the way he gets his passes off quickly. Some of his passes to the flat and in the middle he showed little hesitation. Snap, read, go … which is a far cry from past years where there was that half-tick of hesitation.
I forget whether it was Chesson or Darboh on a deep ball, but one of those looked to me like the receiver let up on the last few steps. Had he kept going he might well have been under the ball when it came down. I recall thinking, “That was catchable.”
I liked the team fight. After the pick-six the team could have folded. But didn’t. And that’s a good thing.
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i agree with the assessment overall, but don’t see how you can state so unequivocally that Rudock is better than Morris today. He is certainly better than anything we’ve seen out of Morris, but we haven’t seen anything since the spring game. I will acknowledge that Rudock is more than likely better than Morris right now.
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Because outside of his sophomore year in HS, Morris has not really looked good on a football field. Stating that Rudock is a better option than Morris is straight-up common sense.
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Sorry, but I think Rudock is a major concern (not that Morris is likely to be any better, which is scary). Three INTs in one game is just plain terrible, and this is an experienced player. Some QBs don’t throw too many more than that in a whole season. When Gardner was doing the same when he was first starting, I said it was a very bad sign, and that decent QBs just simply don’t do that. I was told I was overreacting, that it was just a glitch. We all know how that turned out.
OLine is a major concern too. We’re talking mostly 4th and 5th year guys, all with a lot of starting experience, and they’ve clearly gotten worse, not better. We did not have a single well-blocked running play all night. All of the practice hype about rolling guys 10 yards downfield was just hot air, it seems.
Butt will be a very good tight end, and the run defense is solid, but the secondary and linebackers are very shaky in coverage. No breaks on the ball, not even close to any INTs, and far too many clutch plays given up. The hype on Harris and Perry seems overblown, and the jury is still out on Peppers. He got lost in space far too many times, but he may get it together.
Overall, not a promising beginning, especially for the offense. Our first TD was a gift, and the second was a giveaway from a soft defense when it was too late to matter. I’d have to revise my preseason prediction and say that 8-4 is the ceiling for this team, and 7-5 looks a lot more likely. We will not beat anyone good with our running game and a QB throwing multiple INTs and missing multiple TDs every game. We saw the consequences of that last year.
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I think some perspective is in order for the overreaction crowd. Perry and Harris were playing in their first game. The fact that they are getting significant snaps means that some hype is warranted, especially considering that Darboh and Chesson both look improved as well. Perry showed good hands and was able to get open quite a bit. How many of UM’s great WR’s accomplished this much in their first game of their first season? Rudock had a rough game, and did some things that were out of character. But he also ran the first legit two minute drill we have seen at UM in 8 years. Based on the circumstances, it is rational to think that Rudock will settle in, develop chemistry with the receivers, and get back into his reliable mode.
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Well, I’m not terribly worried about Perry and Harris, but for Rudock to throw 3 INTs is a very bad sign. I’ve heard about 100 variations on “Rudock will be fine” in the last few days, but it’s mostly just people wanting and wishing for that to be true, without any real justification. For an actually good QB to throw three picks in a game is very rare, even against a good defense. Even weaker QBs have better instincts and accuracy than that. Go back and look at the stats for every game this past weekend. You may find one other QB who threw 3 picks (Auburn’s), and they legitimately qualify as lousy. No one else did, even when you count bad luck, tipped balls and plays where the receiver ran the wrong route. Not even the QBs on the 1-AA cupcakes that got the crap kicked out of them against top ranked teams threw 3 picks in a game. Fact is, any time a college QB throws more than 1 interception in a game, it’s an eyebrow raiser and a sign of something very not good. For a little perspective, when Russell Wilson was a grad transfer at Wisconsin, he threw four interceptions. THE WHOLE SEASON. We heard this same “he’ll be fine” chorus after Gardner threw three picks against a weak CMU team in the 2013 opener. And then two weeks later he threw three more against Akron, for pity’s sake, a team not exactly brimming over with NFL-caliber DBs. And things just went downhill from there, as everyone knows. This can’t just be brushed off as a glitch that will easily correct itself, as much as people would like to. It looks dangerously like a sign that Rudock is going to throw a lot of picks this year.
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Marquise Williams (UNC) threw 3 picks against South Carolina. Last year he completed 63% of his passes for over 3,000 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. It happens.
The best evidence I have in favor of Rudock is that he threw 16 touchdowns and 5 picks last year. People are saying “he will be fine” because he has proven that he can do a decent job of managing football games. Nobody knows whether he will repeat that this year, just like they don’t know whether Cody Kessler will throw 39 touchdowns again this year. You go by the evidence you have, and Rudock has positive evidence in his favor.
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Amy thoughts about replacing Bolden with Ross? I think Morgan is fine, he is what he is, but Bolden really irritates me when he flies into a play and misses the tackle. I’m not saying Ross will be a huge upgrade, but with added weight and his instincts he just might be.
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I like Ross more than Bolden. I’m not sure what has gone into Bolden jumping to the forefront the past couple years while Ross has been relegated to backup duty. I wonder if Bolden is just one of those vocal, hardworking guys who brings it in practice but just isn’t a good enough athlete to hack it in games. I mentioned Ross in my awards post today.
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I put Pepper’s catch on a short punt up there with Butt’s TD catch for play of the game, maybe “athletic play of the game”.
Cole got thrown around pretty good. Given a choice I’m zone blocking most of the time anyway as I believe it offers the potential of multiple seem opportunities. I believe this group with it’s length and reach is particularly well suited physically for zone blocking. I know Harbaugh and Drevno want to block power and make holes to run through, and I’m not sure we have a tailback that can read a seem anyway. This might be an item of frustration for a while until we have a bunch of different guys.
I was glad to see Dawson get some snaps. I liked Clark over there on the corner.
As an aside, I was disappointed that MGOBLUE.com didn’t publish a box score for this game. I sent them off an email bitching about that. As a further aside, volleyball is the greatest uniform in all of sports. Just sayin’.
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Seam
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It’s up.
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/mich/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2015-16/box_score/stats_20150904aaa.pdf
I’m taking credit.
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Women’s volleyball ….. just to be clear.
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The linemen were talking in the pre-season about emphasis on the inside and outside zone plays, so it seems like the staff is trying to figure out the best attack.
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I agree on Isaac. I would love to see what he can do. I wondered how Smith was the #1 back. Could it be the pass protection? I really hope Isaac is given more opportunities in the next couple of weeks. If we get Drake back in game shape, with Isaac we can do better.
I don’t know why Cole would regress. He was one of the best tackles we had last year. New scheme and he needs time to adjust? I am surprised that you were ok with Kalis. What did you think about the 4th & 1 play.
I am glad you think this team has potential. I think so also. It was definitely a good feeling, even with a loss. I am rooting for Rudock to pick it up rest of the season. The guy was able to make some nice throws. He wasn’t rushing things. It feels like there was some miscommunications that made his game look worse than it was. Hard to digest the INTs, but I hope it is an anomaly.
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Indeed Isaac whiff on one block at least that I saw. I would rather see him in the back field as he and Drake are the only one’s with any speed whatsoever. Isaac is supposed to be the best in catching balls out of the backfield too, so I hope we get more of that in the future.
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I said we need to win the Rushing and Time of Possession stats. We won Time of Possession but only by ~ 1 min.
Until we can rush the ball and control the clock we won’t be very good.
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The more advanced statistics stuff I read, the less I believe time of possession matters.
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Heresy! 🙂
Time of possession value can be negated by ill-timed turnovers. See Michigan v Utah, 2015.
For “simple” statistics, I think 1st down production or — related — 3rd down conversion rate is a more telling story.
When you say “advanced,” what kind of stats are you thinking of?
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I’ve been reading “Football Study Hall” and Football Outsiders stuff.
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