Name: Joe Milton
Height: 6’5″
Weight: 243 lbs.
High school: Olympia (FL) Olympia
Position: Quarterback
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #5
Last year: I ranked Milton #55 and said he would be a backup quarterback (LINK). He completed 3/7 passes for 59 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception; he also ran 5 times for 16 yards and 1 touchdown.
TTB Rating: 85
WHAT?!?!?! THE STARTING QUARTERBACK IS RANKED #16?!?!?!
Yeah, I didn’t have Milton pegged as the starting quarterback. This countdown was put together long before Dylan McCaffrey opted out and planned to transfer. This is a pretty high ranking for a backup quarterback, largely because McCaffrey hasn’t made it through a season healthy.
It’s a low ranking for a starter.
I’ve overanalyzed Milton to the point of exhaustion (LINK), and obviously my interpretation of the quarterback battle did not mesh with the coaching staff’s. Milton has looked jittery and made poor decisions at almost every opportunity so far in his college career, and the only area where he looks like a plus player is in the run game. Even some of his completions have come when throwing jump balls into double coverage to Nico Collins, making guys dive to catch slants, etc.
On the plus side, Milton is absolutely an enticing athlete with very impressive arm strength and above average speed. Some people – including Devin Gardner, who worked with Milton in the off-season – have said Milton is Cam Newton-like in his physcality. And Milton has a stronger arm than Newton.
If Milton made tremendous strides in the off-season, then he certainly could have overtaken McCaffrey, who had his own struggles. But buying into that notion requires us to suspend what we saw on the field and believe in word trickling out of workouts. And we all know that off-season hype is overblown more often than not.
All that being said, Milton is now The Man. The hope is that he is a difference-maker from the quarterback position, something Michigan has not really had in many years. Denard Robinson was a difference-maker with his feet but struggled as a passer. Devin Gardner had a few games where he looked like a superstar, but that was not consistent.
I expect inconsistency, because that’s what we’ve seen so far. Milton has been inaccurate, and I go to the School of Mike Leach, who believes you’re either accurate or you’re not. I don’t expect Milton to start completed 65% or 67% of his passes, but if he can be around 61-62%, hit some deep balls, and make plays with his feet, Michigan could be in business.
Prediction: Starting quarterback
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Nicely done. I hope all the hype is for real with this guy.
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I expect inconsistency. If the line can protect him fairly well and Gattis can utilize the run game and use some short safer routes to improve his confidence and touch he will meet reasonable expectations.
With this schedule he has to push the envelope though and score some points. Minnesota away is a tough opener. (And I am in show me status for our D to keep us in the game.)
I’ve read some accolades or hype from Gardner about Milton. I keep thinking about the failure to block for Gardner killed his confidence, so as the OL goes Milton grows, or not. RB game is important.
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I second Julio. Keeping fingers crossed for the hype.
As for Milton and jump balls, I remember McSorely relying on quite a few jump balls at Penn State. Only problem is none of the starting receivers (pending where you project Johnson) are taller than 6’0″. We do have a few taller tight ends we could utilize there, but if that’s what we start doing play calling becomes predictable.
With what Milton has shown so far and McCaffrey on the team 16 might even feel a little high. With QB depth now, I’d think top 2. With QB depth and DL/CB concerns, I might slot both DEs in 1 and 2 and throw Milton in the 3rd spot. I’m hoping the DL makes the backfield’s job easier to have a top 10-15 defense.
But hey, what’s a Michigan pre-season without “fingers crossed” or “hoping for the best” when projecting out the season?!
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First, great analysis. I hope Milton will be exceptional but I am not sure that’s realistic. This year with Milton might be the ultimate boom or bust season, largely depending on QB play (defense still has some holes but offense is otherwise solid). If Milton has a great year and has made huge strides, this offense could do could things potentially. But if Milton is mediocre or shaky, then what? This offense probably bogs down and it’s a very tough season. O-Line probably decent but not all world, with a shaky pass game, the running game would lead the way and I don’t think it’s strong enough if defenses can focus on it. Receivers appear to be good but not dominant. Backup QB might be okay but totally unproven.
Given that, on a re-rank I would put Milton at #1.
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I wasn’t a fan of his recruitment to begin with. 100% agree with Thunder that he hasn’t shown much and these guys RARELY maximize their raw abilities. I was really counting on McCaffrey and put all my eggs in that basket. I still don’t understand the point in even naming a QB this season under the COVID circumstances. I would rather just call this a development year and see what you had in both QB’s. I fear this is going to be a disaster and we will be left praying for McCarthy to get here ASAP. Regardless, my expectations are low and at least we should have some football. I’m to the point of just wanting to pummel MSU and my season will be good. Don’t even get me started with Harbaugh.
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I could be wrong, but I don’t think anyone has named Milton the starter besides reporters. I don’t think Harbaugh has come out and said “He’s our guy.” That being said, I guess I’m not as doom-and-gloom as you. I like Milton’s skill set for the most part, and I think he can do some good things. I don’t think he’s going to win the Heisman or take the program to new heights, but there’s not MUCH room to go higher before you reach the elite status of Alabama, Clemson, etc.
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A key to Milton’s success (or lack of it) will be to avoid falling behind the chains. Third and short — good; third and long bad. Duh! The problem here is that the O-line is very inexperienced. Often that results in motion penalties, holding, difficulty picking up stunts and blitzes, etc., especially early in the season. If Warriner can keep the line disciplined and tight, maybe Milton can get it done. Hope so, but I’m not placing any big bets on it just yet.
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Wow you really don’t like this kid eh? Do you have a prediction for season stats? I know you’ve done that in the past.
It’s interesting to me that many of the comments are talking about ‘hype’ but most of what I’m hearing, beyond standard preseason hopes and dreams, is measured expectations or flat-out skepticism.
I wonder if McCaffrey would be facing the same scrutiny and doubt. Even though Milton has a higher passing percentage, YPA, and the same passer rating despite being a year younger and being universally considered “raw but promising” as a recruit. Obviously the sample size is tiny, but I just didn’t see these doubts come in with McCaffrey.
I don’t have to wonder. The articles have already been written. For example. Heading into the 2019 season, McCaffrey was in a similar position to Milton. Here was Thunder’s take.
https://touch-the-banner.com/2019-season-countdown-26-dylan-mccaffrey/
The optimism all but smacks you in the face. This unproven player is the future of football and might beat out the proven starter and 5-star talent because there’s just much upside there. No meantion of the limitations related to armstrength, inexperience, or lack of accuracy. Sunshine, rainbows, unicorns, and national championships.
Now we have a strong armed QB with MORE upside than that guy. Now he beat out that guy (plus a year of experience under his belt). And he’s doing it because he can throw, whereas that guy’s primary asset was his running ability – something a lot of people discount despite Denard Robinson’s successes.
You’d think people would be pretty happy about the turn events but well, it doesn’t seem to be the case for some reason.
We’ll see what we in Milton soon enough. I’m optimistic and frankly a little taken aback by the strong skepticism coming from the fanbase. I guess I shouldn’t be.
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That all said – I agree with everything people are saying about accuracy. When people talk about a rocket arm I generally have the same reaction I have when people talking about a WRs leaping ability or a RB’s size. Looking the part during drills is nice but it’s not what counts on gameday.
McCaffrey had a bit of a noodle arm but it didn’t really bother me. I was excited about him for his overall playmaking, running ability, and hoped the football pedigree would translate. I thought he’d be a good QB and maybe the best under Harbaugh at Michigan. Then Milton beat him out, despite being a lesser runner. In part it seems, because stuck around his teammates and outworked him. Another part, presumably, is that he is a better passer than McCaffrey – who was given every benefit of the doubt, much like Brandon Peters before. Milton keeps beating these guys out and proving his doubters wrong. I hope it keeps up in year 3 at Michigan.
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Nope, I don’t like him at all. That’s why I gave him a TTB Rating of 85.
*fart noise*
Higher YPA and completions, but more interceptions. McCaffrey threw 0 picks in 35 attempts. Milton has thrown 2 interceptions in 11 attempts.
For somebody who wanted to hurl Ty Isaac into the sun for a fumble or two, you seem to be okay with Milton throwing interceptions into the chests of people wearing red jerseys 18% of the time.
I haven’t done stat predictions for anyone. It’s impossible/useless this season.
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Well to be fair I was reading this post and not one from 3 and a half years ago.
I liked Ty Isaac fine. I always thought he was a good RB to have coming off the bench when you needed to eat clock and save your starters but I thought he got too many chances for meaningful snaps…But since you brought him up let’s compare and contrast Isaac and Milton.
One transferred after freshman year buried on the depth chart vs one hung around despite fan speculation that a QB like him couldnt wouldnt wait till their upperclass years to start.
Beaten out by lower rated younger players consistently vs making higher rated older players transfer one by one.
High profile fumble leads directly to a TD early in a 14-10 loss against MSU vs INT on the last play of the gamed during mop up duty in a 21 point defeat.*
*Or, if you prefer, the first pass attempt of his career, as a freshman, in Columbus, down 23. That he immediately followed up with a TD drive.
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I do see one similarity though. They are both big and tall for their positions and pass the eye test – traits I’m skeptical off. But Milton has given me reasons to be excited.
Milton is resilient and praised for his character by coaches and teammates. I like that.
He is patient and getting better over time. I like that too.
Combine the above traits with good physical talent and a steady rise up the depth chart and I’m intrigued.
We’ll see if it means anything on gamedays but I’m more excited about Milton at this point than any other Harbaugh QB recruit. He earned his starting job and the coaching staff didn’t recruit a transfer QB in to play ahead of him.
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I don’t know what a good bar is for Milton for completion percentage in his first year starting. No starting experience and a modest recruiting profile say that expectations should be tempered.
Under Harbaugh we’ve seen some pretty good percentages (Patterson 65, Rudock 64, Speight 61) and some pretty bad ones (OKorn 54 and Patterson 56). The bad ones came when a new OC was installed and Michigan will be past that, with an extra couple months of practice as well.
While Milton is ‘new’ to starting he’s a junior who has been with the same OC for a couple years. So I think a manageable upside or best case scenario might be north of 60%. I’d consider that a success and expect more like 56-58%. Not as bad as 2017 and improvement over 2019, but I don’t think he’s ready to be the best QB Michigan has seen in the Harbaugh era. Maybe 2021 if 2020 goes well.
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Appreciate you keeping the countdown moving. The season is getting close!
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That’s what she said.
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Just got off the phone with a friend who coached at the high school level probably up until 12-15 years ago. They had a kid with a “huge arm” … not particularly accurate. So they drilled and drilled and drilled onwhere are the DBs, throwing it away from Db’s and created routes to the sidelines, and then sidelines and up with pump fakes and such in order to get Safeties biting early.
It sort of worked in that the kid didn’t have a ton of throws straight into an opposing shirt’s chest, but at least once a game, usually late, and usually in a tight game, the kid would get fired up and just drive one through a receiver’s hands for a pick.
I’m with Mike Leach and Thunder on this one, I’m always taking the accurate arm which is why Milton scares me, especially in the opening game and again at OSU.
I’m told that he’s much improved with his accuracy, but he damn well better be from the place he started out from.
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We’ll find out in a few weeks and I don’t have any secret info to share but… something to consider.
Maybe Milton isn’t appreciable less accurate than McCaffrey, Patterson, Peters, etc. Maybe he is MORE accurate than those guys and that was always in him. Maybe these concerns are getting exaggerated with him for other reasons. Maybe there is no reason at all to be comparing him to Denard Robinson repeatedly when the closest thing to Denard Michigan’s seen since just transferred out.
Milton’s lack of exposure to consistent high quality coaching at the high school level has been well documented. There’s reason to believe there’s more room to grow than some other kids who had every privilege available. Everyone here knows about the alarmingly low completion percentage in high school yet Milton’s completion percentage through 2 years is higher than either McCaffrey or Peters.
His interception percentage, TD percentage, and YPA are all higher too. If nothing else, he is not shy. The sample size is small but either it’s meaningful evidence or not. Call out the interceptions but call out the big plays and TDs too. Meaningful downs against Wisconsin, a TD in Columbus, and backup snaps against Florida. He comes in and he wants to score. Some might see that as a the kind of character trait you want in developing young QB.
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Not knocked out by any of out Qbs going back to Speight getting his collarbone broke.
McCaffrey hasn’t demonstrated great accuracy, although better than Milton, but McCaffrey has had injuries which are a thing for him, maybe.
I’m told Milton can play. Ok. But I think you’re absolutely gonna see the usual bonehead stuff from a young QB and also some flat out off throws from a guy who has as of yet to prove in a game that he can be on the money.
I also think you’re gonna get a diet of out routes that can be schemed for.
Hoping Gattis has something anticipating those schemes.
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Yeah you expect any new starter to have some bumps and Milton probably won’t be an exception. That said, he’s a junior now, coming off an extended camp where he beat out a senior for the job. I’d be a little surprised if he comes out and struggles badly against Minnesota.
I set the bar around 58% completion percentage with the rationale above. No preseason to fluff up the stats though, so that may be optimistic.
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We’ve seen it in action, though. He has made inaccurate throws.
There are two different kinds of inaccuracy (or perhaps more, but for simplicity’s sake, I’m sticking with two):
1. You have a scattershot arm. This is when the ball goes high, low, left, right, etc.
2. You have pinpoint aim, but poor timing and/or receivers who aren’t catching the ball.
Denard Robinson was #1. Joe Milton is #1. Dylan McCaffrey is #2. This is based on my reviewing their film in different ways over the years. McCaffrey put the ball where you should put the ball against air, but the problem was that sometimes defenders were there, the ball was late, etc. Robinson and Milton take some seemingly simple throws (slants, bubbles, hitches, etc.) and make people fall over in order to catch the ball, or it just misses them entirely.
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Of 13 plays you charted only 1 indicated potential for a scattershot arm. It was a completion but drew a comparison to Denard Robinson – a player whose skillset is entirely different from Milton.
https://touch-the-banner.com/snapshots-joe-milton-vs-2019-opponents/
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You’re right. Never mind. Milton is very accurate. Everybody is wrong. He will complete 75% of his passes.
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There’s always a subjective element to these kind of things so I tend to look for stats that substantiate it. I think we can both agree Milton hasn’t played enough meaningful downs to substantiate any real conclusions at this stage.
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Agree with this..extrapolating his performance based on 11 passes is grasping at straws.
If nothing else, I like his humility…understanding he shouldn’t have played when learning new things.
It means something that his teammates were out with him over the spring/summer working out. I haven’t heard any of those stories regarding DMac. Or Shea…JOK…I think there were some with Speight. I feel like that means his teammates believe in him as well.
As far as his high school performance, I’m curious how many D1 athletes he had on his team. He had a defensive coach, threw approx 18 passes per game with 9 completions. in a couple weeks we’ll see what he can do with talented pass-catchers.
You know who else isn’t accurate? Dwayne Haskins. Would you be that upset if Milton comes in and throws 15 slants/drags/mesh routes per game and let the wr’s rack up the yac?
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There were stories about players practicing with Shea Patterson over the summer. The truth is that all quarterbacks do 7-on-7 type things over the summer. That’s a basic thing. Like, if you’re not doing that, you’re not on scholarship. My high school QBs lead volunteer 7-on-7 practices. Saying they never did that is like saying the starting point guard never goes to open gym.
The difference is that Milton did throwing exercises with Devin Gardner and, for whatever reason, it ended up on Instagram/Twitter. Some people do the work. And some people do the work while filming it for social media. I’m NOT saying that putting it on social media is a bad thing, but some things do still happen that don’t end up on film.
It’s a common misconception that Milton did not have talent around him in high school. He had a 3-star receiver named Jordan Underwood who signed with FIU and a 3-star receiver named Shane Hooks who signed with Ohio University. Hooks had 26 catches for 515 yards (19.8 yards/catch) and 5 touchdowns for the Bobcats in 2019.
Haskins is pretty accurate. That’s never been a question about him until he played for the Redskins. Obviously, things aren’t working there, but having watched two Redskins games this year, I think Haskins is throwing inaccurately because he either a) doesn’t know the offense/reads well enough or b) is shell-shocked from having a crappy OL. He completed 70% of his passes in both years at Ohio State. He was an Elite 11 finalist. 247 Sports had his accuracy rated as a 9/10 as a recruit. This is an apples-to-oranges comparison.
Milton has been inaccurate every step of the way. His screen throws are MOSTLY accurate. His downfield passes get thrown into double coverage or get thrown at the feet of the receiver, except the slot corner/fade to Giles Jackson for a TD last year.
I’m not sitting here saying Milton can’t improve. But I also won’t let people sweep under the rug that Milton has looked bad so far in his college career. He throws inaccurate passes, he throws into double coverage, he bails too early, he’s failed to follow his blockers on some running plays, etc. I don’t care if he’s 6’5″ with a rocket arm. His Quarterback Play has not been good so far in his career.
I *hope* he has made huge strides this off-season. Maybe getting #1 reps in practice will make a big difference.
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You’re stating an opinion as a fact. Milton has done better than McCaffrey did statistically yet McCaffrey was widely hyped. Milton beat out McCaffrey and produced better results on the field. But he is not a good QB. Heard the same about Denard Robinson.
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What’s factual is that you’re wrong.
Statistical categories in which Milton is superior: completion percentage, yards per attempt
Statistical categories in which McCaffrey is superior: pass attempts, pass completions, passing touchdowns, interceptions, passer rating, rushing attempts, rushing average, rushing yards
I didn’t hype McCaffrey other than predicting he would start. You can go back to the conclusions in my snapshots posts on McCaffrey. There’s nothing rosy there. He made some poor decisions, and I have said I didn’t know if I liked his delivery/release for this style of offense that’s heavily RPO-based.
You’re pushing an agenda. Two of them, actually.
1. Milton is better, statistically. You’re wrong.
2. People think negatively of Milton because they’re racist. Don’t spew that BS here, because it implies that I am. And I clearly break things down play by play. When the man himself says he didn’t know what he was doing and I have just finished two seasons of saying it doesn’t look like he knows what he’s doing, is it racism or truth? (Hint: It’s truth!)
If he plays well this season, I will be happy for him. I like Milton.
Also, if he plays well this season, that will be something we have not seen from him before.
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It is very much in Devin Gardiner’s interest to be promoting the fact that Joe Milton spent the summer working with him and improved. Gardiner is trying to make a career for himself as a QB guru and media guy. Self promotion in pursuit of both those endeavors is nothing but good business.
Everybody on this site is pulling for Joe Milton to succeed. Particularly Thunder as nothing promotes traffic like winning. To infer racism because somebody takes note of the fact that Joe Milton has completed a worrisome low percentage of his passes in the games he has played without regard to level is beyond contemptible,
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It’s the same dude who implied I was racist on a post in which I was promoting Michael Vick as a Hall of Famer. Just another thing to argue about when he gets bored, but I’m not putting up with that shit from some dude on the internet. I do this for fun. If he wants to be an asshole and start throwing shit at the wall, he can go find a different wall.
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I’m not doing that. Every Michigan fan wants Milton to succeed. That doesn’t mean he is being given the same benefit of the doubt that Peters and McCaffrey got at the same point.
Milton has 11 pass attempts in 7 games. 4 of which were against wisconsin, osu, and florida. 3 of them were as a true freshman.
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I agree about Gardner.
I also think Haskins was an accurate passer.
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Yeah I think a different QB might be getting all kinds of praise for leadership, character, patience all along. Milton got painted by some as a a bit of a primadonna as a freshman, even though there wasn’t much evidence to back it up and he wasn’t a very highly rated player. It was said Harbaugh had to play him to keep him happy. In reality he has waited, learned, and picked off the guys ahead of him on the depth chart one by one. It sounds like to me like he’s got the right mix of confidence to not shy away and humility to work hard given what he did in High School.
I think results are what matter but people can get hung up on style points and wanting their QB to look a certain specific way. I’m happy with a dual threat like McCaffrey or Denard or a pocket thrower like Milton or Henne as long as they produce.
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…and the insinuations of racism continue from Lanknows. It never ends. I guess he thinks if he says it enough times, somebody might end up thinking he’s right.
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I do think there’s a third kind of inaccuracy. Pinpoint aim, but the inability to judge your target’s pace.
I had a big arm as a kid. Threw out a lot of guys on the base paths. It was real easy for me to put it right on the base. Got tried at QB twice. Was always out front of the receiver. Then I’d start talking to myself, and I’d be behind. Then I’d throw harder, and hit at a higher percentage, but pretty quick I’d be out front again. Pretty good at long balls tho, as I’d throw it out there and let them run under it.
I got moved to WR and DB.
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I don’t see any reason to be less confident with Milton than the guys he beat out. People seemed very confident with those guys.
For all I know Milton will complete more INTs to DBs than TDs to his ‘slot’ WRs and be replaced by McNamara by game 3. But, I’m inclined to think Harbaugh knows what he is doing with QBs. He’s picked the right starter every year.
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It’s not just me who thinks he didn’t look good last year. Milton basically says so himself. I just saw this video linked on MGoBlog where he’s interviewed for about 20 minutes, starting at the 1:02 mark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxJgT0HL4YU&feature=emb_logo&ab_channel=CoachHayesFootball
Milton says, among other things, that he’s glad he didn’t play as a freshman and he’s glad he didn’t play as a sophomore. Why? Because he wasn’t ready. He didn’t know coverages. He didn’t know fronts. He also says he’s not afraid to stand in the pocket anymore.
If we’re basing our takes on how he PLAYED – by his own admission – Milton had no idea what he was doing.
Of course, he also says he’s improved a ton this off-season, which we had better hope is true. But maybe the critics aren’t wrong when saying he looked rough on the field the past two years…
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