2019 Season Countdown: #55 Joe Milton

2019 Season Countdown: #55 Joe Milton


July 9, 2019
Joe Milton (image via 247 Sports)

Name: Joe Milton
Height:
6’5″
Weight:
234 lbs.
High school:
Olympia (FL) Olympia
Position:
Quarterback
Class:
Redshirt freshman
Jersey number:
#5
Last year:
I ranked Milton #80 and said he would redshirt (LINK). He played in four games and was 3/4 for 58 yards and had 7 carries for 31 yards and 1 touchdown.
TTB Rating:
85

Expectations were all over the map for Joe Milton coming out of high school. Some fans expected him to step right in and be a stud, passing up Dylan McCaffrey for the #2 quarterback; some even suggested he would be a day one starter if Shea Patterson’s eligibility waiver from the NCAA failed. And on the other side, some people thought he would bust because of his low completion percentage in high school. You can see I was somewhere in between – I gave him a TTB Rating of 85, but I thought he would redshirt. He will get a redshirt, thanks to the new NCAA redshirt rule, since he only played in four games. He played in three big games (Wisconsin, Ohio State, Florida) and against Rutgers. I think he ran the ball better than some expected, and you can’t argue much with 75% completions and 14.5 yards per attempt through the air.

Those are small sample sizes, though, and Milton still resides at #3 on the depth chart. Patterson is the returning starter, and McCaffrey returns after breaking his collarbone to end the season on the injured list. It seems like an injury always dings a quarterback for at least a game or two, so that obviously puts the #3 quarterback in the on-deck circle. I still expect Milton to have a solid college career, but it seems like he’s getting a little bit antsy; word out of Ann Arbor was that the coaching staff sat down with Milton and his family this off-season to explain to him what the future looks like in 2019 and beyond, with the implication that the seaweed might seem greener in somebody else’s lake.

With the way college football is going, it would be mildly surprising if both McCaffrey and Milton finish their careers in a Michigan uniform. But for now, I think Michigan is in a solid position if Milton is the third-best guy.

Prediction: Backup quarterback

101 comments

  1. Avatar
    Comments: 1357
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Jul 09, 2019 at 10:46 AM

    Agree it’s doubtful both QBs stick around. I can see Milton transferring, especially if Shea finishes the season healthy again

    As a TrFr, those numbers aren’t bad, but did you see some of the armpunts? It’s almost like he closed his eyes before tossing the pick at ohio. That’s perhaps understandable, since it’s CBus in years … but then he threw one right into the chest of a backup LB in the spring game. I think he needs a lot of time & reps, but lacks the patience to ever see it through

    We’ll see

  2. Lanknows
    Comments: 4923
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jul 09, 2019 at 1:51 PM

    He beat out Brandon Peters. If anyone still thinks there’s a pretty good QB hiding in Peters (as apparently the Illinois coaches do) that’s incredibly impressive for a freshman to do. For the coaches to put Milton out there in meaningful situations also says something, given the 3 other QBs on the roster. Realistically, it could not have gone much better for Milton as a freshman, given how good Patterson is and McCaffrey looks to be.

    I’m a little surprised at the bordering on enthusiastic speculation of a transfer. Early signs for Milton point to a very bright future. Maybe he goes the grad school transfer route after year 4. Maybe he sees the Gattis offense and is willing to wait for his shot. Maybe McCaffrey goes pro after 2020 and Milton after 2021. An injury can happen at anytime. This could go any number of ways so it seems a bit nuts to me to kind of want to run off a kid who had what looked like a stellar season for a freshman.

    I know what’s going on at Georgia, OSU, and other programs but I hope we don’t see the same stuff at Michigan. I know it was 20 years ago plus but Michigan used to have an assembly line of NFL QBs going. Guys who waited their turn in most cases because they knew that the opportunity was so great. The OL, RB, and WR talent was there for them when their number was called, and then the NFL was going to be very interested in that experience and preparedness. I hope with Harbaugh and Gattis around we see the same thing in the next decade. The market for well prepared QBs has only grown.

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1357
      Joined: 1/19/2016
      je93
      Jul 09, 2019 at 2:40 PM

      He beat out Peters? I’ve never seen a depth chart or read a JH announcement to that effect. To use your own reasoning for RB, who came in first, once Mac got injured? Peters, all the way through ohio. If you wanna count the last drive of a blown out Bowl game, when the TrFr rumored to be unhappy with his role was inserted before the guy with one foot out the door, have at it. But the you’re conflicting your RB points yesterday, that guys like Isaac were only trusted when the game was out of hand, while VSmith was clearly ahead…

      I agree with your hope on QB, but those days seem to be over. Guys who truly believe they are ready are not going to wait around. As far as Milton’s season going well, compared to what? Well-performing young QBs are the norm, and he is not at that level. He’s more close to what you hope for: a guy who COULD do well, IF he stuck around and developed

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 09, 2019 at 4:32 PM

        Here are things Milton did as a true freshman that most QBs don’t do.

        Won the 3rd string job, beating out a Junior QB with starting experience in the Big 10. Even if you think Peters isn’t very good, as I do, that’s better than most freshman ever do. McCaffrey did not do this in more favorable circumstances in 2017 when Peters was a year younger.

        Milton played meaningful downs in a tie game – against Wisconsin — most Freshman do not do this. Neither McCaffrey nor Peters did this and they were/are at one point or another considered to be the future of the program. Patterson, Henne and other future NFL QBs did but it’s far from the norm.

        Milton scored a touch down and completed a 40 yard pass in Columbus. It was garbage time but still — most freshman don’t do this.

        While yes, the red-shirt rules are different Michigan badly needed any functioning QB to play in 2017 and McCaffrey wasn’t ready. Milton wasn’t needed ever but Michigan used him anyway. McCaffrey WAS needed but Michigan didn’t use him.

        Milton had a really good year for a freshman. This isn’t worth debating.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4923
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Jul 09, 2019 at 4:20 PM

      Is your argument that Peters was the 3rd string QB because he came in for one handoff before Milton in garbage time against Rutgers? Or that he came in for the final play of the PSU blowout after McCaffrey got hurt?

      You are perhaps unaware that Milton was handcuffed by the red-shirt? Using up 1 of his 4 games to down the ball makes zero sense. Harbaugh would not say who the backup was after the McCaffrey injury but once the red-shirt risk was cleared it was Milton who came in for most snaps, not Peters and he came in ahead of Peters to close the year against OSU and Florida. That is decisive.

      Moreover, Milton played on the first series against Wisconsin. Michigan thought he was good enough to get meaningful downs in a critical game. That was not true for Peters in 2018 and even in 2017 Michigan put in massive mitigations when forced to insert him into the starting lineup.

      So, Milton played in more meaningful downs, more meaningful games and attempted more passes on the year, despite the red-shirt limitations. Michigan played him, by choice ahead of Peters. I didn’t realize this was a point worthy of debate.

      If you want to argue the point please provide evidence that Peters finished the season ahead of Milton.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1357
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Jul 10, 2019 at 12:21 AM

        Not worth debating, but posted two replies? Typical

        He didn’t “win” the 3d string position. Peters going in first should be proof enough, but how about the word from JH: https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2018/10/16/michigan-football-joe-milton-brandon-peters/1658986002/

        As for the new RS rule, that HELPED get Milton on the field. The kid wants to play or transfer, so JH broke career-long precedence by giving a TrFr QB meaningless snaps in 4 games

        Again, “good Freshman year” needs perspective. Look at the TrFr who have played in the last few years – a few are studs, some win big games, and a lot win a handful of them. What Milton did – take meaningless snaps – is what many TrFr QBs did during 1-4 games last year … good had nothing to do with it

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4923
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 10, 2019 at 12:02 PM

          You know what? You’re right. I shouldn’t bother. Nothing you said provides any evidence that Peters finished the year ahead of Milton and the case for Milton – who saw meaningful snaps as noted in my comments, as well as your link – is pretty cut and dry (better stats, more playing time, entering ahead of Peters to close the year).

          I do agree that the strong freshman season guarantees nothing. But it’s better to have a good start than a bad start.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 1357
            Joined: 1/19/2016
            je93
            Jul 10, 2019 at 7:18 PM

            Here’s another from JH, as late as November:

            https://wolverineswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/10/jim-harbaugh-michigan-football-backup-quarterback/

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4923
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Jul 11, 2019 at 10:08 AM

              My response got ‘moderated’ out. I didn’t say anything mean but it includes 4 links, so maybe that’s a problem.

              The 4 links:

              Wisconsin play by play
              OSU play by play
              Bowl game box score
              Freep link to Peters transfer that notes he was behind 3 QBs.

              None of the references to JH refusing to spell out the QB depth chart indicate that Peters finished the year ahead of Milton. A case that is directly refuted by the 4 links above.

              • Thunder
                Comments: 3114
                Joined: 7/13/2015
                Jul 11, 2019 at 10:24 AM

                Yeah, the four-link thing was the problem. When I saw this comment, I went and looked at the spam folder, and it was there. Unfortunately, I get a lot of spam comments that try to post a bunch of links, so sometimes they get filtered out if there are too many. Sorry.

              • Avatar
                Comments: 1357
                Joined: 1/19/2016
                je93
                Jul 11, 2019 at 9:34 PM

                What?

                You said Milton beat out Peters, I showed your where the Head Coach said otherwise – TWICE

                You wanna talk about a Freep opinion piece? Alrighty then 👍🏽

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:01 PM

                  Not true, in either link.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:02 PM

                  It is not an opinion that Peters transferred away because he got passed.

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 1357
                  Joined: 1/19/2016
                  je93
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:37 PM

                  By Patterson & Mac.

                  Milton is third by way of Peters transfer, and macnamara being a TrFr. Nothing you’ve stated proves otherwise

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 12:18 PM

                  I can’t stop you from ignoring the facts in front of your face. See the links. Direct Evidence. Or don’t.

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 1357
                  Joined: 1/19/2016
                  je93
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 1:17 PM

                  Except, you have not proven your assumption that TrFrmilton beat out Peters for 3rd QB; you’ve provided links as to why you AssUme …

                  I’ve provided JH-backed statements that – as of midNovember, the depth chart had not changed, his intentions was always to play both

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 2:19 PM

                  JH doesn’t say the depth chart hasn’t changed or has changed. He is noncommittal.

                  But Milton has played meaningful downs and Peters hasn’t.

                  At best, that puts the junior and the freshman on equal footing prior to OSU.

                  After OSU and the Bowl no further statements are needed. Actions speak louder than words – and in this case there are no words to dispute (other than your made up interpretations).

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 2:23 PM

                  When was the last time Michigan published an official depth chart that needs to be ‘changed’.

                  What is your evidence that Peters was EVER ahead of Milton? I think he was, based on who came in first in games earlier in the year. That’s my basis. What is yours?

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 1357
                  Joined: 1/19/2016
                  je93
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 4:40 PM

                  That’s EXACTLY what he says:
                  “Asked if Michigan’s decision to play true freshman quarterback Joe Milton in Saturday’s win over Wisconsin indicates that he’s passed third-year sophomore Brandon Peters as the team’s No. 3 quarterback, Harbaugh said NO” (emphasis mine)

                  then halfway through November, he explains why Peters went in first, but only for one snap:
                  “Wanted to get them both playing, get them both reps,” Harbaugh said. ”Brandon’s series was only one play, because Chris popped the long 68-yarder. And then, really, had the three plays at the very end.”

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 5:03 PM

                  Not Harbaugh’s quote – it’s the a newspaper opinion. You won’t accept “opinion” from Freep but you’ll lift this quote as if it’s Harbaugh talking – OK.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 5:05 PM

                  Harbaugh never gave a depth chart. Never said who was 3rd string (AFAIK). So we go off his playing time decisions.

                  You went off those for Rutgers but when it doesn’t suit your view you ignore it.

                  So many comments. What a meltdown you’re having.lol

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 1357
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                  je93
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 10:55 PM

                  It’s not an opinion. NickB is reporting what JH said after being asked. And he’s not the only one: https://mobile.twitter.com/AaronMcMann/status/1052230788387868672

                  *told you you’d still reply

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4923
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jul 10, 2019 at 7:37 PM

            Harbaugh would not say who is ahead. You already covered that in your previous post. Still does not support your argument that Peters finished ahead of Milton, which directly contradicts the available evidence.

            here: https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/stats/_/id/130

            here: https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401012893

            here: https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay?gameId=401012895

            here: https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=401032076

            and here: https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2019/05/04/michigan-football-brandon-peters-transfer-portal/1100515001/

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1130
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      WindyCityBlue
      Jul 09, 2019 at 6:53 PM

      If Milton thinks he’ll have to wait until he’s a senior to start (as is likely, given the way Harbaugh runs things) he won’t stick around. Why should he? Lots of quarterbacks get to start and have big seasons as sophomores and redshirt freshmen. Guys like Grbac, Collins, Griese, Brady, Henson, Navarre, Henne…none of them had to wait for their senior year to start.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 09, 2019 at 9:46 PM

        Henne played as a freshman but was ‘supposed’ to sit behind Guttierez (3rd year) and Clayton Richard (2nd year) and wait his turn. Guttierez’s injury open the door and all Henne had to do was beat out 1 older guy (which Milton did as well.)

        Collins started 2 games his 3rd year and wasn’t the full time starter till his 4th.

        Griese also didn’t start until his 3rd year, coming in as starter only after Driesbach got hurt.

        None of them were project to start until their 4th year and in a world where injuries don’t exist maybe they don’t.

        Brady didn’t start till his 4th year, considered a transfer, and famously continued to battle with a young hot shot throughout his 4th and 5th years. Many assume Henson would start, but he never beat out Brady.

        If the assumption is that Milton is blocked until 2022 because McCaffrey starts every game in 2020 and 2021, well… I’d bet against that. If you remember oh way back to 2017 Michigan had to use it’s 3rd string QB and OSU did recently as well. While I certainly wouldn’t bet on that happening again, I would bet on a QB not making it through consecutive seasons unscathed. McCaffrey isn’t the biggest and already got hurt the one year he played. If he is good as we all hope he can go to the NFL after his senior year (2020).

        More importantly than all that — Milton could beat out McCaffrey. He had a better freshman year afterall. Even if he doesn’t, he’s likely to get a starting opportunity at some point in his 3rd or 4th year, just like Griese, Collins, Brady, and others.

        Those guys all waited their turn, weren’t projected to start for years, and it worked out pretty great for them. It would have been foolish to call for any of them to transfer after their freshman year and nobody did that back then.

        Times have changed but less so in the locker room than in the public.

        • Avatar
          Comments: 1357
          Joined: 1/19/2016
          je93
          Jul 10, 2019 at 12:08 AM

          Times have changed. Seven of those paragraphs have nothing to do with how CFB is now. Players who are better than their depth position transfer for more PT; players buried for good transfer for more PT

          • Thunder
            Comments: 3114
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Jul 10, 2019 at 6:07 AM

            Right. The number of transfers among top quarterbacks is ridiculously high.

            Let’s just look at Peters’s 2016 class. Of the top 11 pro-style quarterbacks, 8 have already transferred. The three who remain(ed) were Dwayne Haskins (starting by redshirt sophomore year), K.J. Costello (started 7 games in redshirt freshman year), and Feleipe Franks (started 8 games in sophomore year). Milton was the #9 pro-style QB in 2018.

            If you’re not starting by year two or three in college football today, you’re gone.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 1130
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            WindyCityBlue
            Jul 10, 2019 at 9:45 AM

            Exactly. Milton may be content to sit this year, but if McCaffrey is the clear #1 after next spring, he’s probably gone. The default assumption at that point will be that McCaffrey is the starter in 2020 and 2021. No way a guy like Milton will wait until his fifth year for his “turn”, when he’s not guaranteed anything even then, not when there are plenty of other teams that will take him like a shot. He’s certainly not going to wait around another three years just hoping for an injury to give him a couple of starts.

            It may be nice to feel like you’re signing a starting-caliber QB every year, but there’s no way you’re going to keep them all for four or five years.

            • 17years
              Comments: 191
              Joined: 2/6/2018
              17years
              Jul 10, 2019 at 7:15 PM

              I have watched all the QB videos of Michigan current QBs and soon to be QBs, McCaffrey, McNamara, JD Johnson, and JJ McCarthy. It looks like JD Johnson is going to be the odd man out.
              But that’s how it goes in college football. Even great players like Justin Fields transfer.
              But I could be wrong. Maybe he will show good improvement this season. I hope he does.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4923
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Jul 10, 2019 at 12:14 PM

          The only certainty is the absence of certainty.

          I think you guys are being WAY too confident about projecting out the depth chart 2 or 3 years in advance. This NEVER plays out exactly the way you think it will. Even the “way too early” depth charts that attempt to go a year out are pretty off. Hell, the preseason stuff published all over the place is off.

          There are always unexpected developments. McCaffrey is clearly ahead of Milton right now but so what. He could get hurt, go pro, or just straight get passed.

          Milton knew the score when he signed on. Patterson had 2 years of eligibility. Peters had 3. McCaffrey had 4. And more competition on the way.

          One down already and only one more to go to a major role.

          I think pretending like you know how things will play out the next 3 years is blatant disregard for history. Didn’t happen for Peters, or Speight, or O’Korn, or Forcier, or Mallet or well, most every QB.

          In this particular case maybe at least let the season play out. Milton may be a Hamilton guy as asserted below and not fit with Gattis. Or the opposite may be true. Maybe McCaffrey is a Hamilton guy and may not fit with Gattis.

          If you all were saying that McCaffrey is going to transfer because Milton had such a good year for a freshman and has more upside once Patterson is gone, I would say the same thing: Don’t be so sure.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 1130
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            WindyCityBlue
            Jul 10, 2019 at 7:47 PM

            Of course nothing is 100% totally, absolutely certain. Which is why I said IF McCaffrey is the clear #1 after next spring, Milton is PROBABLY gone. And the question isn’t whether something MIGHT happen in 2020 or 2021 that would give Milton a chance to start, but whether Milton is likely to wait around for it, or whether he’s more likely to seek better opportunities elsewhere.

            Don’t make the mistake of thinking that because nothing is certain that everything is equally likely. It isn’t.

            • Avatar
              Comments: 1357
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              je93
              Jul 10, 2019 at 10:27 PM

              Right on

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4923
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Jul 11, 2019 at 12:00 AM

              Strawman defeated but nobody said everything was equally likely.

              This is about treating an unlikely outcome (less than 50% chance) as a given and speculating about a promising young player transferring based off that.

              I do appreciate the qualifier and agree that IF McCaffrey is the clear #1 a year from now THEN it’s more likely Milton bails. That’s not very controversial.

              What is? Asserting that Milton will be locked out of starting for 3 more seasons because Patterson and McCaffrey will start every game. They will not.

              • Thunder
                Comments: 3114
                Joined: 7/13/2015
                Jul 11, 2019 at 4:55 AM

                Speaking of strawmen, I don’t think anyone said that Patterson and McCaffrey would start every game for the next three seasons.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 9:45 AM

                  “No way a guy like Milton will wait until his fifth year for his “turn””

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:05 AM

                  That’s a stretch, at best. Top-flight QBs aren’t going to hang around just in case the starter gets a concussion and misses 1.5 games. You know that’s not what is being discussed here.

                  Obviously, that thought process wasn’t in place for Brandon Peters. He was an injury replacement for an older guy and still had more experienced guys ahead of him, but he still booked it for greener pastures.

                  I already gave you the numbers. Eight out of the top 11 guys in 2016 have already transferred.

                  I’ll do 2015, too:

                  #1 Josh Rosen (UCLA)*
                  #2 Brady White (ASU to Memphis)
                  #3 Jake Browning (Washington)*
                  #4 Zach Gentry (Michigan…TE)
                  #5 Ricky Town (USC to Pitt)
                  #6 Ty Storey (Arkansas to Western Kentucky)
                  #7 Drew Lock (Missouri)*
                  #8 Brett Rypien (Boise State)*
                  #9 Brian Lewerke (Michigan State)**
                  #10 Tyler Hilinski (passed away, unfortunately)
                  #11 Alex Malzone (Michigan to Miami-OH)

                  *Started as a freshman
                  **Started as a redshirt sophomore

                  There’s a pretty clear pattern here. If you aren’t starting early in your career, you’re probably gone.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:09 AM

                  Dylan McCaffrey is a junior. Is he about to transfer?

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:19 AM

                  You’ll have to ask him.

                • 17years
                  Comments: 191
                  Joined: 2/6/2018
                  17years
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:20 AM

                  I’m not seeing how there’s an argument here. If there really was a sit down meeting with Milton and his parents, then it’s clear the coaches think Milton doen’t have promise of being the starter.

                  (I posted 2 comments to this effect already, but they haven’t shown up, glitch again)

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 1357
                  Joined: 1/19/2016
                  je93
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:43 AM

                  He would if he got passed on the depth chart. He’s on the ak to graduate; if not a clear choice for 2020starter, yeah – he’d be a sure bet on transferring

                  “Dylan McCaffrey is a junior. Is he about to transfer?”

              • Avatar
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                WindyCityBlue
                Jul 11, 2019 at 6:19 AM

                So now you’re saying that what you were vehemently disagreeing with is actually”not very controversial”? Okey done.

                BTW, just because something has less than a 50% chance of happening (a number you made up and have no real justification for) doesn’t make it “unlikely”. In any case, what really matters is Milton’s perception of his chances to be the starter at Michigan before his fifth year, as compared to his chances of starting sooner than that somewhere else. If he’s not the #1 guy coming out of next spring, he’s going to see his chances here as far less likely. As noted, in that case, the default (not certain) assumption is that McCaffrey will be the starter for 2020 and 2021. That’s what Milton will be looking at. He’s not going to be calculating the odds of McCaffrey getting hurt and giving him a chance sooner than that.

                • Avatar
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                  je93
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 9:51 AM

                  Some posters just like to argue, then throw a fit when they can’t change others’ minds

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:02 AM

                  Not remotely accurate. I’m vehemently disagreeing that Milton will transfer because 1 guy is ahead of him via “default assumption” – something you made up with no real justification for. Milton committed to Michigan with more guys ahead of him. Your “default assumption” and projecting fear of competition on a guy who has demonstrated he isn’t is what I disagree with.

                  YOUR assumption, while possible, is very unlikely. Just look at the last sophomore projected to be a starter two years out, and the one before that…the last one to make it was Gardner and well that didn’t exactly go as planned.

                  Finally, believe it or not, there is a lot more to a transfer decision than playing time for most people, even QBs. The decision considers coaching, education, sitting out a year, and yes playing time too. The vast majority of backup QBs do NOT transfer and many who do wait till they have graduated.

                  I would not be shocked if Milton transferred. Or McCaffrey. Or anyone else. I’m vehemently disagreeing with picking out one freshman – who had a really good start – and saying this guy is a goner because of the 2021 fantasy depth chart, when the 2021 fantasy depth chart is never right.

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:17 AM

                  My mind is blown:

                  “The vast majority of backup QBs do NOT transfer and many who do wait till they have graduated.”

                  Let’s look at the Michigan QB’s over the past several years:
                  Shea Patterson (transfer)
                  Dylan McCaffrey (still at Michigan)
                  Cade McNamara (still at Michigan)
                  Joe Milton (still at Michigan)
                  Brandon Peters (transferred)
                  Wilton Speight (transferred)
                  Alex Malzone (transferred)
                  John O’Korn (transferred)
                  Shane Morris (transferred)
                  Jake Rudock (transferred)
                  Russell Bellomy (transferred)
                  Devin Gardner (played entire career at Michigan)
                  Denard Robinson (played entire career at Michigan)
                  Tate Forcier (transferred)

                  That’s every QB for Michigan going back to the 2009 class, including people who transferred to Michigan after that point. Fourteen quarterbacks, and only FIVE played their entire career at Michigan – including three young guys still on Michigan’s roster who could transfer. Your statement should be completely flipped around. The vast majority of backup quarterbacks *DO* transfer. When’s the last time you saw a fifth year scholarship guy sitting on the bench waiting for his chance to play? John O’Korn is the only one who approaches that label…and he had already transferred once.

                • 17years
                  Comments: 191
                  Joined: 2/6/2018
                  17years
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:12 AM

                  If the sit down meeting with Milton and his parents happened, then it’s clear the coaches can see Milton is not headed to being a starter, ever. If he had real promise of passing McCaffrey, and other QBs either currently on the team, or those to come in, then the coaches wouldn’t have a meeting like that. That had to be a very difficult thing to do for both sides, the coaches, and Milton and his parents.

                  So there isn’t any handwriting on the wall for Milton to read, or need for him to guess what will happen. He can see right now he isn’t going to be moved up in the line up ahead of McCaffrey. Which is no surprise. McCaffrey has looked pretty good when he has been in.

                  Maybe Milton will stay one more year to learn from Jim Harbaugh. He’s a great coach to learn from. But Milton may also transfer out before the season starts. Who knows, he may even be talking to schools right now.

                  But whatever the case, I won’t be surprised if he is out of Michigan before the Middle Tennessee game.

                  And QB transfers aren’t the really big deal they used to be. My eyes were opened to see Thunder say 8 of the top 11 QBs in the 2016 class transferred.

                  But that high transfer number is beginning to make me wonder about Cade McNamara. I know it’s far off yet, but McNamara may not be a better QB than McCarthy. I like McNamara a lot. But it’s possible, and again I know this is far off yet, McNamara may have to transfer out. Though I do remember seeing him say he would stay at Michigan even he might be on 2nd string, because he wants to learn everything he can from Jim Harbaugh. But….. things change.

                  That’s too far out in the future to think about.

                • 17years
                  Comments: 191
                  Joined: 2/6/2018
                  17years
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:16 AM

                  I’m not seeing how there’s an argument here. If there really was a sit down meeting with Milton and his parents, then it’s clear the coaches think Milton doen’t have promise of being the starter.

                  (I posted 2 comments to this effect already, but they haven’t shown up, glitch again)

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
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                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:26 AM

                  Weren’t most of those grad transfers? I’m not arguing that GRAD TRANSFERS don’t increase transfers. That’s probably 3 years away for Milton and McCaffrey would be gone. The arguments here are that he’ll leave before that (presumably sitting out a year).

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:32 AM

                  I haven’t seen many arguments saying that. I said in the post that I would be surprised if both McCaffrey and Milton finish their careers in Michigan uniforms. At no point did I suggest (and maybe one other comment from another poster sorta-kinda implied) that Milton would transfer before he graduates.

                  Also, you said this: “The vast majority of backup QBs do NOT transfer.” That’s flat-out wrong. So if that’s not what you meant, then you need to get better at communicating your argument…and even then, you threw in the grad transfer thing at the end of that sentence, so I have a hard time believing you weren’t including grad transfers in your thought process.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
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                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:28 AM

                  Which Michigan QB was willing to sit out a year because of playing time worries?

                • 17years
                  Comments: 191
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                  17years
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:31 AM

                  Ahh, the comments are appearing now. Sorry about the redundancy.

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:34 AM

                  Something was going funky with the comments, maybe having to do with spam. I dunno. A bunch of comments on the Joe Milton post were going to the spam, and thus to the trash.

                • Avatar
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                  je93
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 10:50 AM

                  Lol, ‘projecting fear’

                  He’s about to lose it

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
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                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 11:28 AM

                  I see a grad transfer 3 years from now as a very different thing – that would have nothing to do with McCaffrey. (if eligibility expires as expected.)

                  The context of the debate, at least as I understand it, is that McCaffrey’s position ahead of Milton is driving the speculation of a transfer.

                  In my view it is more likely that McCaffrey is gone after the 2020 season than Milton.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
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                  Lanknows
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 11:38 AM

                  I think most backups, at least ones with NFL dreams still in tact, will leave for a grad transfer opportunity. O’Korn was a rare exception who stayed but he had already transferred anyway. And he got his shot in the end.

                  I think most backups with only an older player ahead of them (like Milton) will wait. Not all (e.g., Fields) but most.

                  If a younger player beats them out that’s a bigger deal but then the kid has to weigh if it’s better to hold off until graduation (as Morris and Peters did).

                  If McNamara and other younger QBs come in here and pass Milton then I think things get interesting. That happened with Peters but hasn’t happened with Milton. Peters waited till his grad transfer even though he was 3rd string before the season started.

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
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                  Jul 11, 2019 at 1:37 PM

                  This argument is significantly different than the one you presented earlier.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
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                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 12:37 PM

                  Same argument all the way. You are trying to ascribe opinions to my view that I never had. I’m not saying grad transfers are uncommon. I’m not saying I hate speculation. I’m saying I don’t like a freshman who is 3rd string being and had a positive first year to be shoved out the door. Would have said the same for McCaffrey last year….but nobody was doing this stuff with McCaffrey.

                • Avatar
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                  je93
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 1:27 PM

                  AFAIK, not one poster here has the clout to “force Milton out,” I don’t even recall anyone saying they hope he leaves …

                  Since OP, this has been about the unlikelihood of both Milton & Mac staying. With Milton seemingly a bit behind Mac, and Mac only #2 not 3, AND word that Milton wasn’t even happy as a TrFr with PT, the reasoning is IF one were to leave, it would PROBABLY be Milton. That’s not hateful, and does not in any way effect outcome. It’s meaningless discussion during summer boredom

                  You don’t agree, FINE. But there’s no reason to be so sensitive, make sh:t up, or fight with other posters about it

                • Avatar
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                  UM2013
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 1:38 PM

                  Whoa, I don’t think anyone’s getting hostile here – just a good ol’ spirited discussion.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 2:32 PM

                  You sound upset JE. Maybe take a breath. Or you know – ignore my comments, like I promise to resume ignoring yours.

                  It sounds like you are projecting your own hostility and emotional state onto others.

                • Avatar
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                  je93
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 4:49 PM

                  Haha, this “you sound upset” jab is coming from the guy to has had meltdowns & took timeouts in the last two off-seasons, and after replying to me – TWICE

                  You can’t ignore a disagreement. You’re obsessed with debate, and are known to change your position mid-thread (like yesterday), just to keep the debate going

            • 17years
              Comments: 191
              Joined: 2/6/2018
              17years
              Jul 11, 2019 at 12:40 AM

              If the coaches had a sit down with Milton and his parents, that ‘s pretty serious. It must have been very hard for the coaches to tell him and his parents it would be better if he transfers. It must have been clear to the coaches he isn’t going to pass McCaffrey. Otherwise they wouldn’t have gone through those hard moments in the meeting. At least it seems that way to me.

  3. 17years
    Comments: 191
    Joined: 2/6/2018
    17years
    Jul 09, 2019 at 8:03 PM

    I still remember watching Joe Milton’s highlights for the first time. I remember wondering why Jim Harbaugh wanted him. With all the QBs Jim Harbaugh could choose from, I didn’t see why he would select him. I thought he must be seeing something I was not seeing. Because I wouldn’t have offered him a scholarship. So it really got me wondering.
    I began to look into how the chain of events went into him getting an offer. I quickly found it was Pep Hamilton that was high on him. I saw he thought he saw Steve McNair in him. This started me wondering about Pep Hamilton. I watched Steve McNair play football. And I read about what he did in high school. He played both ways, and held records on both offense and defense. And what a fantastic player he was in the pros. I still remember how awed I felt when i saw him break out of that sack late in the Super Bowl. I just shook my head at the idea that Milton could be as good as McNair. McNair was a very rare athlete. All I saw when I watched Joe Milton is someone that would be a permanent backup at a school like Michigan, playing only because of injury to the QB, or QBs, ahead of him. There was just too much in him to work on. And, there would be a new QB coming into Michigan every year, looking better than him in high school, being closer to starting when they arrived on campus, and showing more potential for developing. He would always have that to contend with. Then I read that all scouts, even ones that spoke positively of him, said he is “a project”. So it wasn’t just me that thought he needed work. There’s great potential in someone that has an arm as strong as his, i.e., able to throw a football 70 yards since age 15. But lots of great QBs, QBs that we all have heard of, never could throw more than 65 yards in their entire lives.
    I read (if it was true or not, I don’t know) that Lane Kiffen, who was newly hired at Florida Atlantic, wanted Milton badly. I immediately thought that would have been a perfect situation for Milton. A good offensive mind coaching him, he’d be much closer to home, and because the conference he’d be in he’d have a better chance to be on the 1st string. But nope. (That still could happen though if Milton transfers.)

    “word out of Ann Arbor was that the coaching staff sat down with Milton and his family”

    This was the right thing to do, both for Joe Milton and for Michigan football, but mostly for Joe Milton.

    I just can’t see him making the pros as a QB. It’s way too hard. Most starting QBs in college don’t even make the pros, let alone someone in Joe Milton’s situation.

    I wish Joe Milton the best. I hope he can make the pros. I hope I am wrong. But if he is going to make it he is going to have to play a lot in college, and work a lot on his game. And I don’t think he will get that amount of playing time at a big school like Michigan, or Georgia, or Miami, or Florida. Honestly, I think would be a big chore just for him to get to 2nd string at schools like that. I still think Cade McNamara is going to pass Milton in the line up at some point. I see more potential to be a starting college QB in McNamara than in Milton. He is instant excitement. Then will come along JJ McCarthy. McCaffrey, McNamara, McCarthy–what fun! ( I think I read A.J. Henning became serious about choosing Michigan when he saw JJ McCarthy committed to Michigan)

    But hey, I don’t do this for a living. So I could be wrong about Joe Milton.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4923
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Jul 09, 2019 at 9:51 PM

      Yeah, Milton is not anything like McNair.

    • DonAZ
      Comments: 453
      Joined: 8/12/2015
      DonAZ
      Jul 10, 2019 at 6:32 AM

      “I quickly found it was Pep Hamilton that was high on him.”

      That’s my understanding — Milton was a Pep Hamilton thing.

      Harbaugh had a hard-to-understand (for me) loyalty to Hamilton. He seemed to stick with him long after indicators pointed to the experiment not working. I’m happy Hamilton has moved on, if for no other reason than I don’t think the “NFL coaches trying to recreate the NFL game in college” works. If Gattis truly has the offense in his hands, then maybe Harbaugh has finally come to that conclusion as well.

      • 17years
        Comments: 191
        Joined: 2/6/2018
        17years
        Jul 11, 2019 at 10:22 AM

        I just think Pep Hamilton and Greg Frey were growing pains for Jim Harbaugh, part of the process of him cutting his teeth at the college level. Neither coach turned out to be what he thought they would be.

  4. Lanknows
    Comments: 4923
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    Lanknows
    Jul 11, 2019 at 12:43 PM

    After the 2018 season the “default assumption” is that McCaffrey will be a backup (to Patterson) until his senior (4th year). But he didn’t transfer.

    After the 2017 season the “default assumption” was that McCaffrey would be a backup (to Patterson and then Peters) until his 5th year. But he didn’t transfer.

    Milton is in a VERY similar situation as McCaffrey was a year ago (3rd string QB, RS Freshman, behind a backup QB 1 year older than him) — but nobody was arguing he was going to transfer. Moreover, Milton could be considered to be in a better position — stronger freshman year (thanks to red-shirt rule change), beat out a veteran ahead of him, facing less experienced (though also less impressive) competition, possess a major advantage (arm strength) over the guy above him, an exciting OC with a wave of playmaking receivers on the way.

    Milton even ranks slightly higher in Thunder’s countdown at the same point.

    Nobody was saying McCaffrey needed to start early in his career or he was going to be a goner. So – very different perspectives and speculation under very similar circumstances.

    WHY?

    I can make some guesses.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3114
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jul 11, 2019 at 1:37 PM

      1. You keep skirting around the argument that I have presented several times: QBs transfer at a very high rate.
      2. McCaffrey is #2 on the depth chart, and he was in the mix to be #2 last year (and he did indeed end up #2, ahead of Peters). This spring there were some saying he was playing better than Patterson. When you’re the #2 guy, you’re probably less likely to transfer than when you’re the #3 guy. As a redshirt freshman, Milton is #3 and not in the mix at all for #2, AFAIK. Different situations.
      3. Again, what I said in the original post is that ONE of these two players (McCaffrey and Milton) is unlikely to finish his career in a Michigan uniform. The numbers are on my side. Unless you have some evidence to the contrary, I stand by my point.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 11, 2019 at 2:35 PM

        1. I’m not arguing with this point, if you’re including grad transfers. My argument is with a) Milton being the primary target of these speculations and b) the rationale being applied so inconsistently.

        And now some people want to speculate about McNamara too? Sheesh. I mean yeah, anybody could transfer and QBs may be more likely than other positions, but I don’t understand the motive behind doing this to incoming recruits and promising freshman. A situation like Malzone or Peters (vets who got passed) is different.

        2. I remember Peters being ahead of McCaffrey last year – as reflected in your countdown. You said yourself that Peters “retook the lead” after spring and who knows if it was ever relinquished at all (we also heard buzz about O’Korn for years).

        I don’t see”in the mix” as being different in 2019 than 2018. The narrative was that Peters began the year as backup and an injury opened the door for the younger guys. McCaffrey passed Peters. Milton did too. Maybe Peters was more a little more likely to be passed but this is splitting hairs – it can just as easily be argued that Milton is poised to surge ahead (see points above).

        3. Yes, a QB could leave early for any number of reasons. See point 1. I’ll root for the early departure to be McCaffrey going pro in 2020.

    • Avatar
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      WindyCityBlue
      Jul 11, 2019 at 2:48 PM

      IF McCaffrey is the clear #1 guy coming out of spring 2020, it most certainly will be the most likely outcome that he’s the starter in the fall. I didn’t just pull that idea out of thin air..that’s how college football goes. He will also be the leader to start in 2021. If he “waits his turn”, he’s looking at the opportunity to start for two years. If Milton “waits his turn”, he can’t count on starting more than one year, and that’s if he beats out tougher competition than McCaffrey is looking at. That’s the difference.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 11, 2019 at 4:05 PM

        IF he doesn’t go pro. IF he isn’t hurt. IF current pecking order holds.

        Lotta if’s.

        The Dylan McCaffrey era may be like the Brandon Peters era or the Wilton Speight era. McCaffrey hasn’t started a game yet. The fact is we don’t know jack about 2021. Projecting out 3 years is foolish.

        As Thunder said – the numbers are on my side. Things don’t usually go as expected.

        • Thunder
          Comments: 3114
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Jul 11, 2019 at 4:29 PM

          Wow.

          A day ago, you were talking about how quarterbacks wait their turn. You went all the way back to the early ’90s to say it was irresponsible to talk about how quarterbacks leave early when there was a clear history of Collins, Griese, Brady, etc. all waiting their turn to start and then flourishing.

          Today you’re saying the numbers are on your side that “things don’t usually go as expected.”

          So does 25 years ago matter or not? I’m just trying to figure out which side of your argument you’re arguing today.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 46
            Joined: 10/3/2015
            UM2013
            Jul 11, 2019 at 5:01 PM

            I’m confused as to what the argument even is here. I don’t think its a controversial statement to say “here are 2 4* quarterbacks recruited within 1 year; both have looked relatively promising in limited time. The previous 10 years of CFB tell us that its more likely than not that one of those players will transfer at some point”.

            As to which player is more likely to transfer – that feels like a pointless argument. We’d essentially be making a guess based on highly limited information.

            • Avatar
              Comments: 46
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              UM2013
              Jul 11, 2019 at 5:02 PM

              * Meant within one year of eachother (obviously McCaffrey is one year ahead of Milton)

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4923
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Jul 11, 2019 at 10:13 PM

              I’m asking why no one made this argument with McCaffrey a year ago. The only answer I got was that McCaffrey had a bit more spring buzz.

              I agree 100% that speculating about who specifically will transfer is pointless. That is my point.

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4923
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Jul 11, 2019 at 10:23 PM

                Everyone, including Thunder, had Peters ahead of McCaffrey going into the season. The countdown reflects that. Peters and McCaffrey are 1 year apart. The situation is extremely similar, but now we’re sitting here inventing rules and convoluted hypotheticals to rationalize a specific player transferring…for some reason.

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 11, 2019 at 11:09 PM

                  There are several differences if you’ve been paying attention. And you have. But you won’t acknowledge them, so it doesn’t matter.

                  Just because you ignore the arguments doesn’t mean there’s an absence of evidence to the contrary.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
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                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 12:20 PM

                  Not intentionally ignoring them. Just not seeing them. Spring buzz and…IDK

        • Avatar
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          WindyCityBlue
          Jul 11, 2019 at 7:04 PM

          Just above, you were complaining about people expressing certainty. Now you’re complaining when they’re talking about contingencies and possibilities. Like Thunder said, you’re chasing your own tail.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4923
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            Lanknows
            Jul 11, 2019 at 10:15 PM

            I see you ignored my question.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4923
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              Lanknows
              Jul 11, 2019 at 10:18 PM

              Why are you playing this game of hypotheticals with Milton only?

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
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        Lanknows
        Jul 11, 2019 at 10:20 PM

        If Milton “waits his turn” he will start in 2022. Or 2021. Or 2020. Or 2019. Or never. Hypotheticals are great.

        • Avatar
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          WindyCityBlue
          Jul 12, 2019 at 5:50 AM

          Um…no. Unless “waits his turn” means whatever you decide it does at the moment, and not what it did when you were talking about the past progression of Michigan QBs, not just being a backup until older and more experienced players have had their turn as the starter.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4923
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            Lanknows
            Jul 12, 2019 at 12:21 PM

            McCaffrey is waiting his turn.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3114
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jul 11, 2019 at 11:23 PM

      I see some speculation from the anti-speculation guy:

      “Moreover, Patterson lurking in the background for 2019 will have serious consequences for the prospects of the loser of the Peters/McCaffrey battle. With 3 highly ranked QBs in 2 classes there’s little to no chance all 3 will remain in 2019. So depth will continue to be an issue as Milton projects as the 3rd string QB again in 2019, if not the backup.”

      https://touch-the-banner.com/2018-recruiting-grades-offense/

      So when we say someone’s likely to transfer, it’s an issue. When you say someone’s likely to transfer, you think it’s okay.

      • Avatar
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        je93
        Jul 12, 2019 at 2:11 AM

        That’s him alright. If a fan has judgement on a play, player, coach or whatever, they’re toxic. When it’s Lank, it’s okay

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 12, 2019 at 12:23 PM

        The distinction, that I’ve made before, is about speculating on attrition generally and calling out one specific player who is on track, doesn’t have another QB in his class, and hasn’t been passed by a younger player.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4923
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jul 12, 2019 at 12:32 PM

        I love speculation! The countdown is my favorite part of your site and that’s pure speculation.

        What I don’t like is targeting an individual as a transfer target who is on track. It seems arbitrary and hostile. I’m asking why and not getting answers.

        Maybe it’s because he doesn’t look the way some people want the next great Michigan QB to look. Echos of the RB size debate in a way. It’s not 1986.

        • Avatar
          Comments: 46
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          UM2013
          Jul 12, 2019 at 12:51 PM

          Isn’t the difference pretty clear?

          This time last year, McCaffrey was a RS freshman facing a transfer with a maximum of 2 years left (and there was a lot of talk that Patterson would leave after one year for the pros at that time) and a RS Sophomore coming off what I think most people consider to be an average season and terrible bowl game. It was realistic to think that (if he panned out) he could surpass Peters and start for a minimum of 2 years once Patterson leaves.

          Milton is now facing one more year of Patterson, and a RS Sophomore coming off what I think most people consider to be a successful freshman year. I dont follow the practice buzz all that much, but it also seems like Peters has faced critcism regarding his leadership and command of the huddle ever since he stepped on campus. We really havent heard the same criticisms regarding McCaffrey.

          So even if Milton is on track (which appears to be the case) he’s looking at one year as a starter, unless he can beat out a more experienced, equally touted quarterback, who is currently listed ahead of him.

          That’s the crux of the difference for me – McCaffrey’s standing after his RS Freshman year >>>> Peters at the same point.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4923
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Jul 12, 2019 at 2:01 PM

            I appreciate the thoughtful response. I do think though there’s a bit of hindsight going on in here in how we looked at things a year ago.

            Peters was still considered to be NEXT. That’s how Thunder had the pecking order in the countdown and this is what Mgoblog’s QB preview said in late August:
            “it’ll be hard for the chasers to overtake Peters.”

            Now it looks like it’ll be hard for the chasers to overtake McCaffrey. Same situation.

            Saying McCaffrey had 2 years to start after he waited out Patterson required ignoring the #2 QB. If we applied this logic to Milton he’d have 3 years left to start! “facing a transfer with a maximum of 1 year left”.

            I think it is realistic to think that (if he panned out) Milton could surpass McCaffrey. Maybe this is more controversial than saying McCaffrey could surpass Peters in 2018, but I think this is splitting hairs. It’s an opinion not based on much -McCaffrey hadn’t even played a down yet. Yes – there was spring buzz, which is not nothing except when it regularly is.

            I do a agree that the criticisms of Peters (circa 2018) are different than the criticisms of McCaffrey now. The questions of McCaffrey are physical, Peters were mental.

            We know (NOW) that Peters isn’t a very good QB. We didn’t really know it for sure a year ago. We thought he was better than he was. Many still are holding on to that, calling him a good QB…

            We’re all optimistic about McCaffrey and the buzz is great but ultimately he is still a kid with 15 pass attempts to his career. Fewer than Peters had after 2017 when he was the next great QB.

            McCaffrey is NOT locked in as starter through to 2022. If he is as good as we hope he will be gone after 2020! There’s a good chance he isn’t, in which case he could get unseated. Either way.

            I don’t think we should pretend like we knew that Peters was likely to fall on the depth chart. (past view) I don’t think we should rule out Milton passing McCaffrey but even if he doesn’t, he can still get the same 2 years starting that McCaffrey (to this day) is hoping to get, for any number of reasons.

            When we talk about how the world has changed we also have to acknowledge that not as many guys are sticking around for their 5th seasons — and that goes for McCaffrey too – be it the NFL, a transfer, or an injury. We have to acknowledge that QB who already got hurt once in very limited duty last year could get hurt again. Most QBs would not make it through the projected 2 seasons as a starter unscathed.

            Milton doesn’t have to wait anymore than McCaffrey had to wait a year ago. The way I see it, asserting otherwise is to take a biased view of the past and/or an unrealistically confident view of the future.

            The world has changed I was told above and young guys need to play early or they will transfer. McCaffrey didn’t play and didn’t transfer. Milton did, yet he is speculated to be transferring. It doesn’t seem very logical to me.

            • Avatar
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              UM2013
              Jul 12, 2019 at 2:18 PM

              I don’t necessarily think it’s appropriate to speculate that Milton specifically will transfer, but I think logic tell us that we can make certain statements. For example:

              – At this time last year, it would have been logical to say that one of either Peters or McCaffrey would not end their career at Michigan. Based on Peters’s bowl game performance, the rumors that he was homesick at one point, and the buzz that he lacked command of the huddle, it was fair to assume that he’d be more likely to transfer than McCaffrey (who was obviously an unknown quantity).
              – You can make a similar statement this year – one of either McCaffrey or Milton is likely to not end their career at Michigan. Given the available evidence (relatively strong RS freshman year for McCaffrey, rumors that Milton is displeased with his playing time) I think its fair to assume that its slightly more likely that its Milton who transfers at some point.

              I don’t necessarily view the above as baseless speculation either – its essentially looking at statistics over the last few years in CFB and making an assumption based on the (albeit limited) information that we have.

              • Avatar
                Comments: 1357
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                je93
                Jul 12, 2019 at 4:34 PM

                Exactly 13! There’s a lot of “if” in there, a lot. No one wants/hopes Milton leaves, it’s just a guess “if” things play out. Just guessing, on a MICHIGAN blog. Nothing harmful

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4923
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Jul 12, 2019 at 5:53 PM

                I tried to post a response but it got lost so I’ll just summarize.

                I don’t have any beef with long-term OR talk between 2 guys in adjacent classes. Pretty common with grad transfers.

                I do have beef with speculation about a specific player’s imminent departure. See comment 1 about Milton’s lack of patience (personal shot) and seeing him transferring if Patterson is healthy this year. I think that is crap.

                I do have beef with logic that asserts players today will transfer if they don’t get early playing time — when Dylan McCaffrey is waiting till his senior year to start. I think that is BS.

                Some of this is about how you look at grad transfers. I look at it like grad school, not something that takes away from undergrad, just an extra thing that some people do. Morris, Peters and Speight all graduated from Michigan. It’s not the same thing as Drew Singleton leaving to go where they can get playing time.

                If somebody wants to go play elsewhere 3 years from now because they don’t have a starting gig here – who cares. I don’t really care if Shane Morris and Alex Malzone sell insurance or play elsewhere. Either way they “completed their career” at Michigan in some way.

                But why are we talking about 3 years from now, after a kid’s very good freshman year? Is it enjoyable? Is it helpful? Is it reasonable to think we know?

                I hope McCaffrey and Milton graduate from Michigan. I don’t like speculating that either would scared off by competition. Is it harmful? Eh it’s a blog message board – probably not, but it’s disrespectful and unhelpful.

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 46
                  Joined: 10/3/2015
                  UM2013
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 6:17 PM

                  Fair enough – I don’t totally agree but it’s undoubtedly a sensitive subject (and rightfully so given that we’re ultimately talking about college athletes). Think it’s fine to leave it at “recent data tells us that a substantial portion of power 5 quarterbacks, particularly those whom are highly recruited, look to transfer if they’re not seeing the field.”

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 6:41 PM

                  I agree but Milton did see the field. If that changes in 2019 we’ll see then.

                • Thunder
                  Comments: 3114
                  Joined: 7/13/2015
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 7:02 PM

                  “I do have beef with logic that asserts players today will transfer if they don’t get early playing time — when Dylan McCaffrey is waiting till his senior year to start. I think that is BS.”

                  This conversation crossed the line into nonsense a long time ago, but this takes the cake for nonsense. I ran through the 2015 and 2016 quarterback classes for you, which are clear evidence that QBs will transfer if they don’t play early. Your evidence in response: “I think that is BS.” I’ve asked for evidence to the contrary, and you say “Dylan McCaffrey.”

                  You speculate about transfers and it’s okay; we speculate about transfers and it’s a travesty.

                  I just don’t even understand why you would keep pounding away at this argument when you’re so clearly unprepared and unwilling to put together a cogent argument, along with unwilling to admit that there are giant, Michael Onwenu-sized holes in your argument.

                  I give up.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 4923
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 8:42 PM

                  I feel like Michigan QBs are relevant to the discussion of Michigan QBs. Dylan McCaffrey seems pretty pertinent, moreso than some rando from the 2016 class.

                  But OK let’s play the 2016 QB class game since focusing on cherry-picked data asserting a general trend and applying it to a specific person seems to be the way you want to go…

                  Of the top 20 QB recruits 10 of them are either with the team still, graduated, or left early for the NFL.
                  Let’s look at some of the others:

                  1. Patterson fled sanctions – nothing like Milton.

                  2. Henry had off-field problems – nothing like Milton.

                  3. Eason started as a freshman, got hurt and lost his job to a younger player – nothing like Milton.

                  4. McElwain lost the competition to a fellow freshman and left spring after his freshman year – nothing like Milton.

                  5. O’Brien was a pro-style passer recruited by Riley who transferred when Frost arrived because duh – nothing like Milton.

                  The final 5 (Modster, DeWeaver, Barrett, Cooper, Allison) are traditional transfers that probably had something to do with competition. These generally occurred when said players got passed by YOUNGER QBs. That’s probably because they aren’t very good.

                  Does that 25% minority apply to Milton — maybe! Not yet it doesn’t.

                  Could Milton grad transfer to seek more playing time in 2.5 to 3 years — maybe!

                  You can pretend like I’m saying Milton is lock to be at Michigan for 5 years but that’s not what this is about at all.

                  A lot of QBs transfer. A lot don’t. Milton had a good freshman year. There’s no reason to speculate that he’s out the door in any number of months or years. SOME QB probably will leave because a lot of QBs transfer – which no one ever argued with.

                • Avatar
                  Comments: 1357
                  Joined: 1/19/2016
                  je93
                  Jul 12, 2019 at 10:48 PM

                  What’s do Brandon Peters & Joe Milton have in common? BOTH had rumors of unhappiness (homesick or lack of PT). Mac? No such rumor – not even a whisper. THAT’S what triggers the speculation that IF one transfers, it’d be Milton. It’s not a prediction, but simple speculation. Innocent speculation

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4923
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Jul 15, 2019 at 12:22 PM

                Thanks for the link Thunder. I’ve never had much regard for Mandel but (still) do not dispute that transfers are up (irrespective of grad transfer rule). Situations like Peterson and Fields (NCAA waivers) will only increase the pace, presumably.

                My HOPE – with Harbaugh and Gattis – is that things can be different at Michigan. That players will perceive that it’s worth the wait whenever they get their shot.

                McCaffrey’s willingness to wait until he’s a senior to start is an example. That’s exactly how I’d like things to go, even over situations like Clemson / Alabama / OSU because I don’t fully trust us to recruit QB at the level year in and year out. At least not yet. McCaffrey is one data point but he is one very relevant MICHIGAN data point.

                I want the culture at UM to be different. To be better. Call that Michigan arrogance if you will. Call it unrealistic nostalgia if you will. In my view, that is the kind of thing that could again differentiate Michigan from what WCB calls “9-and-3-ism”.

                We can be QB U again. A place where people transfer TO (Rudock, O’Korn, Patterson), not away from, at least not until they know they are buried for good by younger players after they have graduated (Peters, Malzone, Morris).

                Fans don’t make or break the culture but they contribute to it. The one damaging transfer we had (Speight) – fans played a significant part in. Thankfully we got Patterson to save the day.

                I still don’t like the speculation toward a specific young player. I don’t see how it is useful, good, or enjoyable. I don’t see it as harmless, entirely. Rumors are just rumors. We don’t have to feed them and build off them when they are targeted at underclassmen and/or related to damaging outcomes.

                In Milton’s case – I see McCaffrey as the parallel, not Peters. Neither one was expected to leave after their freshman year. I would argue that freshman years are humbling for most freshman. Milton’s humbling was probably on the lower end of the scale.

                In the end, we’ll see.

                My last post on this thread. All the best. Keep up the good work on the countdown.

  5. Lanknows
    Comments: 4923
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Jul 11, 2019 at 10:14 PM

    Here’s a quote from Thunder from last year:

    “In ye olden days, he either wouldn’t have been on the field, or people would have expected trouble because he was so young. Now we want kids to grow up immediately when they hit a college campus. Hopefully Milton continues to grow and mature on the trajectory we used to expect from quarterbacks in the 1990s.”

    Sorry, I cheated and replaced Milton with Peters. I wonder what the difference could be…

    https://touch-the-banner.com/2018-season-countdown-32-brandon-peters/

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4923
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Jul 11, 2019 at 10:21 PM

      replaced Milton for Peters, i meant.

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