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27Nov 2010
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How I Feel About 7-5

This is about what I expected.  Not that I picked every game correctly, but my prediction for the overall record prior to the season was 7-5.  People who thought Michigan would go 8-4 were a bit optimistic.  I think people underestimated how horrible this defense truly would be, especially absent senior defensive back Troy Woolfolk.  I do not believe this is hyperbole: this year’s defense is the worst defense in Michigan history.

I think fans will be upset about how Michigan lost these last two games, not necessarily that the games were lost.  But ultimately, I’m not sure that it really matters whether the score was 37-7 or 52-42.  In the record books, the “L” will count the same as the 43 other times Ohio State has downed the maize and blue.  I don’t know that Michigan fans would be feeling much better right now if Michigan lost on a last-second field goal.  It’s still nine losses in the last ten games.

As the regular season has come to a close, I think it’s important to look at pre-season expectations.  Many prognosticators expected 7-5.  Even people who predicted an 8-4 season usually seemed to qualify their statement with “I know I’m an optimist, but . . . .”

I understand if people are encouraged by the progress from 3-9 to 5-7 to 7-5.  I also understand if people are discouraged that the program hasn’t progressed more quickly.  What I don’t understand is any vitriol aimed toward Rodriguez that wasn’t present in August 2010.  The offense was explosive.  The defense was atrocious.  The only big surprise this year was the effectiveness of Denard Robinson as a runner and passer, and that development resides on the positive end of the spectrum.

Go Blue!

27Nov 2010
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Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

I hate Ohio State’s uniforms, so here’s a picture of
Terrelle Pryor from high school.

Earlier in the year, I had designs on going to Columbus for this game.  I never really had the thought that this game would have an impact on the Big Ten Championship from Michigan’s side, but I thought it might be competitive for the first time in a few years.  I decided not to get tickets even prior to the Wisconsin game, and after watching Michigan get manhandled by the Badgers, I’m glad I didn’t make the purchase.  There will be better years to foray into the heart of Buckeye country.

Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
This will be a battle Michigan must win to have any chance at a victory.  The Wolverines are the #10 rushing offense in the country (257 yards per game), and the Buckeyes are the #3 rush defense (86 yards per game).  Something has to give, and honestly, it will probably be the Ohio State defense.  The best rushing team Ohio State has faced was Wisconsin, who put up 188 yards at 4.37 yards a pop.  Earlier in the year, I railed against Rich Rodriguez’s heavy use of Denard Robinson in the running game to keep him fresh for late in the season.  Well, if ever there was a time to use Denard 30, 35, 40 times a game, this is it.  This is the game that matters, maybe for Rodriguez’s job, maybe for the perception of the program.  This game right here is why I didn’t want Robinson rushing the ball 29 times in a 20-point victory over UConn, but now it’s pedal to the medal.  Michigan’s running backs have largely been ineffective this season, although Vincent Smith has started to improve in the past couple weeks.  Michigan might also get a boost from the return of Fitzgerald Toussaint, a highly talented running back who has missed most of the season due to various injuries.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The reason the rushing game will be so important is because the passing game scares me.  Michigan has the #30 pass offense and the #16 pass efficiency, but Ohio State is #5 in pass defense and #7 in pass efficiency D.  Denard Robinson still struggles to read defenses and go through his progressions.  And while Ohio State doesn’t make a ton of sacks (only 18 on the year), they have picked off 17 passes; meanwhile, Denard Robinson has thrown 10 picks, with 9 of them coming in Michigan’s last six games.  His accuracy and confidence have waned throughout the year.  Michigan might be missing a deep threat in Darryl Stonum, who injured his ankle returning a kick against Wisconsin.  That would leave the Wolverines down its two starting outside receivers from the beginning of the year, including Martavious Odoms, who has missed most of the year.  There will be open receivers because Ohio State is going to commit to stopping the run, but whether Robinson can hit those receivers downfield is a bit of a crapshoot.
Advantage: Ohio State

Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
Ummm . . . yeah.  So.  Michigan is bad at stopping the run.  This is well known.  While Wisconsin’s offensive line and running backs are more physical than Ohio State’s, Michigan’s defense effectively refused to stop the run against the Badgers, giving up 6.32 yards a carry.  And when you keep the ball on the ground 56 times in one game, it’s not like those yards came on surprise draws or reverses.  Nope, Wisconsin lined it up and simply dominated the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State would be wise to follow Wisconsin’s blueprint.  Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has thrown 10 interceptions himself; so while Michigan’s pass rush isn’t fearsome and Michigan’s secondary is well below average, why take the chance at putting the ball in the air?
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The Buckeyes are the #17 rushing offense, so they don’t need to pass the ball a ton; they average 230 passing yards a game, which is a middling 55th in the country.  But as much as Michigan fans like to make fun of the way Pryor throws the football, he ranks 14th in the country in passing efficiency.  It might be ugly, but it’s effective.  Ohio State has two solid receivers in Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey, and Pryor has the arm strength and touch to deliver deep balls consistently.  On the other hand, Michigan’s secondary is a work in progress.  Lacking its top two cornerbacks from the pre-season (Troy Woolfolk, J.T. Floyd) due to injury, it’s been mix-and-match since then.  But a strange thing seems to have happened since then – the secondary seems to be improving.  James Rogers has three interceptions in the last two games; true freshman Courtney Avery might already be a better cover corner than the guy he replaced (Floyd); and freshman free safety Ray Vinopal lacks the unfortunate quality of being a linebacker.  None of this is to say that Michigan will be great against the pass, but they should perform better than what we thought several weeks ago.
Advantage: Ohio State

Final Predictions

  • Based on the lack of success against Wisconsin, Michigan runs a good deal of 4-man fronts
  • Denard Robinson throws a pair of interceptions
  • Fitzgerald Toussaint gets a couple carries and then gets injured
  • Kelvin Grady leads the team in receiving
  • Ohio State 45, Michigan 27
27Nov 2010
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Ten Wolverines for Whom I’m Thankful

This post was supposed to go up yesterday, but I ran out of time due to holiday obligations.

These ten Wolverines are my favorite all-time Michigan players.  Some are great.  Some aren’t.  But for one reason or another, these guys have made it fun to be a Michigan fan.

1. Brandon Graham, 2006-2009.  Graham was a terror from the defensive end position.  In addition to his physical talents, he matured a great deal from his freshman year (in which he played defensive tackle because he really liked to eat).  Not only do I like Graham for the plays he did make (for example, blowing up MSU running back Glen Winston in 2009), but I like him for the plays he almost made, too (nearly chasing down Javon Ringer in 2008).  It all added up to a first round pick by the Eagles in 2010.

2. Charles Woodson, 1995-1997.  Everybody knows about Woodson.  He was an all-everything recruit and named the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 1995.  He was a First Team All-American in 1996 and the Defensive Player of the Year.  Then he topped it off in 1997 with the Jim Thorpe Award and the Heisman Trophy.  Every time Michigan needed a play, it seemed like Woodson was there to make it.  There’s just something about the way Woodson moves on the field that makes him fun to watch, even now as a 34-year-old Green Bay Packer.

3. Tshimanga Biakabutuka, 1993-1995.  It seems like a long time since Michigan has had a player like Biakabutuka – a guy who carries a large load and can make big plays in the meantime, not just wear down the defense.  Biakabutuka was a soccer player as a youngster and is a great example of what I call “soccer feet.”  Soccer players have a certain, recognizeable gait and way of moving around the football field, and #21 had some of the quickest feet I’ve seen from a big back.  He became a first round pick of the Carolina Panthers, but was hampered by injuries in the NFL.  His school record 1,818 yards in 1995 might be broken by Denard Robinson this season, but it’s pretty special when a running back averages 6.0 yards a carry . . . for his entire career.

4. Lloyd Carr, 1980-2007.  Carr has taken a lot of heat for what happened to the program after his coaching career ended.  I think that is somewhat overblown.  Regardless, Carr was a great coach when he was in Ann Arbor.  He always seemed to do the right thing, and he kept issues private that ought to be private.  It also helps that he won a national championship.  While I’ve always respected Bo Schembechler, Lloyd Carr will probably remain my favorite Michigan coach of all-time.

5. Jason Avant, 2003-2006.  Avant was the most reliable receiver I’ve seen at Michigan.  His teammate Braylon Edwards got the hype and the high draft pick, but Avant seemed to catch every single ball thrown to him.  He wasn’t very tall and didn’t have great speed, but he was always in the right place and made the play.  He ended his senior year with 82 catches for 1,007 yards and 8 touchdowns, earned honorable mention All-America status, and was named the MVP of the team.  He cashed in his intangibles when he was drafted in the fourth round by the Philadelphia Eagles.

6. Desmond Howard, 1988-1991.  Howard was larger than life when I was a kid.  Even though Michigan became a more pass-oriented team later in the ’90s and into the 2000s, Grbac-to-Howard was the most lethal passing combination I’ve seen at U of M.  The fact that he won the Heisman Trophy in 1991 is secondary, though.  My favorite fact about Desmond Howard is that after the Wolverines beat the Purdue Boilermakers in that 1991 season, I was one of the little kids who stuck his hand through the railing by the tunnel . . . and Howard gave me a high five on his way into the tunnel.

7. William Carr, 1993-1996.  Carr was Mike Martin before Mike Martin was Mike Martin.  Playing the nose tackle position back in the mid-’90s, Carr had 82 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, and 6 sacks as a junior.  Those are ridiculous numbers for a nose tackle.  He was a fire hydrant in the middle of those stout Michigan defenses and was a first team All-American in ’96.  He was only a seventh round pick of the Cincinnati Bengals, though, and never did much in the NFL.

8. Brandent Englemon, 2003-2007.  Englemon was the type of success story that I like to see at Michigan.  He was a solid player throughout his career, but never had any spectacular seasons.  He could have departed after the 2006 season with his degree, but he wanted to remain for a fifth year and contribute further.  The coaches were ready to let him go and use the scholarship on a younger player, but Englemon convinced them otherwise.  He responded by earning the starting job at free safety, tallying 86 tackles and 3 interceptions in his final season.

9. Jake Long, 2003-2007.  Long was perhaps Michigan’s best offensive lineman of all time.  He was the athletic, mauling lineman that should be the prototype for the position.  At 6’7″ and 313 lbs. with long arms and quick feet, Long could collapse one whole side of a defensive line or stay in front of some of college football’s best pass rushers.  I was thoroughly excited to see Michigan pull out the good old “tackle sreen left” play in the 2008 Capital One Bowl against the Florida Gators; unfortunately, quarterback Chad Henne overthrew Long.  I would have loved to see Long rumble down the field with the football.

10. Jordan Kovacs, 2009-present.  It might seem odd for me to pick Kovacs here, a player whose talent I’ve derided right here on this very blog.  He’s pretty small, he’s not very fast, etc.  All those things remain true.  Still, it’s somewhat remarkable that he stepped onto the field at Michigan and earned a starting job as a redshirt freshman in 2009.  He tallied 75 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 interception that season, earning second team All-America status.  Despite Michigan bringing in some talented secondary players around him, Kovacs continues to hold onto the starting job at strong safety.  I have to admire what he’s achieved.

23Nov 2010
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Former Michigan Athlete of the Week: Tom Brady

This wasn’t a standout week for Michigan players in the NFL.  But at the top of the heap is New England Patriot Tom Brady, who went 19-for-25 for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 31-28 victory over the Indianapolis Colts.

Honorable mention: Wide receiver Braylon Edwards, currently of the New York Jets, helped his team to a 30-27 win over the Houston Texans.  Edwards caught 4 passes for 86 yards and 1 touchdown.