Burge333I will preface this by noting I think the only players to realistically consider leaving are Gary, Bush and Long.
I will say Long, mostly because he has the highest drop off for a replacement ( I couldn’t even guess who it would be with certainty). Gary we know is gone and although a good player never put his stamp on a game or the team. Bush is dominant and we will miss him more than I am assuming here, but I think Ross is an adequate to good fill in for him next year.
I am not entirely sure Patterson could even seriously considering leaving. He just wasn’t that good. Bredeson might consider it, I think he would be missed the most on offense and as much as Bush or Long.
I tend to think we only lose Gary and Bush. Which leaves us with a bit of a rebuild on the D-line next year but still a damn good back 7.
Burge333Revisiting the previous predictions 11-1 heading to the B10 Championships game is a good possibility. Shea Patterson has been a steadying force at QB (thank god) and we have finally seen progress out of our line. The whole season to this point has been a best case scenario (aside from ND loss and McCaffery getting hurt). The offence is capable, but I would say they are still finding their feet. I am really excited to see them next year. The defence is dominant but I suspect as shown this week a bit susceptible up the middle. It is unfortunate UM can’t mary up a dominant defence this year and next year’s offense… Almost hurts a little.
I am predicting a win against OSU 31-20 and off to the Big 10 Championship game. As usual the game will come down to a few plays going either way. UM needs to show more than they did against MSU and get into the end zone when they earn the opportunity. I think they will control the OSU Dline enough to run and pass enough to win. They need to come out with some pop! I actually think UMs coaches and plans have been slightly better than OSU’s the previous two years. OSU keeps winning and looking terrible doing it. Their best 2 wins are against 5 loss MSU and 3 loss PSU. There is the danger they can have a fluky great game, but I think UM is too strong for them across the board. Hopefully bizarre call game just happened for UM.
On another note, it is incredible what a capable confident QB can do for you. You can easily see the difference between last year and this year under center and the results speak for themselves. I actually wonder if it is unifying for the Oline.
Exciting times ahead! Go Blue!
Burge333That is an excellent assessment. For some reason I think UM beats OSU this year. Maybe they lose to PSU and still go 10-2… Who knows. The only reason I think that is because of hope and I kind of think at some point the ball has to bounce UM’s way. Eventually you win one and it has been a long time for UM. OSU has had a lot of drama and now there is talk about Meyer’s health, maybe it has a negative impact. We will see, they have to win one at some point though. Don’t they?
What has surprised you about UM this year?
Burge333Hi,
I thought I would revise after 5 games. They are 4-1 now and have 3 games left I would classify as wins (Mar, Rut and Ind). I would say they have 4 toss ups:
Wisc. – Home and Wisconsin does not appear to be as good as originally thought. 65-70% chance UM wins.
MSU – On the road, also not as good as we thought, with poor offensive play at all positions. 50-50
PSU – Heartbreaking loss to OSU, still a top ten team. But UM seems to have their # at home. 50-50
OSU – As a UM fan I have to call it a rivalry game, but logic makes that a challenge. Their QB appears to be amazing. I would say UM have a 15% -20% chance on winning.
I am going to say they go 9-3, no idea who the wins and losses are. The one thing I like about this team at the moment, they seem to have depth all around (aside from DT and OT).
Surprises for me so far have been:
Poorish secondary play
Not coming out ready to go
Improved Oline play – They appear to be getting better
Strong depth on Dline and linebacker
Gary is either hurt or a guy that won’t be at the level where he puts his stamp on a game.
Shea is as expected (which is good). – Also developing… Nice to see
Notre Dame appears to be very good and that loss doesn’t look as bad now.
Burge333I have to say after reading Mgoblog’s analysis next year looks bleak.
We lose our best player on the O-line and out best running back (only above average players on our offense). There is not a lot else on offense to get excited about aside from a recruiting ranking. Certainly nothing about actual performance.
On defense we lose our entire line, our best line backer, Hudson might leave as well, definitely one possibly two or 3 db’s and our best safety. Good god… next years defence might be entirely bad.
Next year has possibly already turned into the year after that or the year after that or whatever the next coach can put together.
Burge333I suspect he will be gone after this year, but it isn’t a foregone conclusion. He just doesn’t dominate as one would expect stats wise. He seems to PFF well, but he doesn’t control a game or dominate stat wise. I suspect he is a mid to late 1st round pick and possibly falling without a big game on the big stage or some silly stats.
Burge333I completely agree. I would say my revised prediction would be 7-5 or 6-6 and Jim will be fired or engineer his exit towards the end of the year if not sooner.
I based a big part of my assessment on the coaches being able to bring this group together, as they are fighting for the program and the coaches lives. Tonight was more mistakes, more weak play, more mistakes and a fair bit of stupidity. I am really surprised as a team they didn’t man up to fight for the coach or program.
Don Brown, for all his accolades, does not have a defence that wins games. It may play well statistically but has yet to win a game when they have the lead or keep the other team from getting one, which makes it entirely average. Against a good team there are always times when they get walked over like the first quarter or more usually in the 4th.
Culturally there is something wrong with this program, Jim has to wear it. I am no longer sure if he is a good coach. The team simply cannot make a big play and makes stupid mistakes that cost it games. This team is lacking character, toughness and the will to win. This is a better team than 7-5 or 6-6 or 9-9 in it’s last 18. There is not one player on this team that has done what is needed to win or coach that has coached that way. Jim is the opposite of Mark Dantonio (it really pains me to say that). At this point, as long as he is there, they will eat Michigans lunch while Michigan watches and quivers.
How the line is still one of the worst in college football and the quarterback play is still poor I have no idea, there has been ample time to fix it. Why do Michigan players, insiders and coaches pump them up so much in the pre-season? STFU and stop embarrassing yourself. Sam Webb appears to be an idiot at this point. He knows football as well as I know general surgery (I am not a surgeon or medical professional).
The problem is that when Jim is replaced it will be difficult to get a better coach than Mark or Urban, if not impossible. This is Why OSU did not get rid of Urban!
Anyway, I can rant forever. It as another disappointing performance but the exact same performance we have seen over the past 4 years, no improvement whatsoever. Can we clone John Beilein? Or worse MD or Urban?
I was optimistic… Can’t wait to hear how this is the best line in world after they destroy North Western Idaho state and the defence is the greatest ever. I am obviously frustrated, I was overly optimistic and put too much confidence in a coaching staff that has not earned it.
Burge333I am not sure what most of this means. Even after googling foundation of Murahka, I am no closer. I am assuming you are saying who cares what they do, play football.
Burge333That is an interesting perspective, that is hard to disagree with. Thanks for sharing.
Burge333Is Spanellis ahead of big Mike? Any chance he moves to D if he loses the job?
Burge333Do you think the “Should” guys will only play in 4 games? It is great to see Mayfield on the list, but I always think O-line that aren’t starting should redshirt. He doesn’t seem to have a path to start next year, assuming Runyan and Hudson are starters and will be decent.
Burge333Thanks for the info. Always appreciated!
Burge333There is one other that agrees with me.
I was not going to start a new thread about harbaugh… I jus don’t want to put the negative energy out there!
I would be keen to compare UM v. MSU person by person or group by group though.
I enjoy reading your opinion.
Burge333Also, regarding MSU The road team has won 6 times since and including 2007 and the last 3 years. Not a significant home field advantage.
Burge333I can’t disagree with your assessment.
UM usually wins the difficult preseason game though and ND’s strength last year was o-line and this year our strength will be D-liine while they usher in a new o-line… I expect our defence to be next level with better safety play.
My belief would be that if they finish with 3 losses Harbaugh would be fired most likely this year or probably the year after or the Program would accept mid tier status in the Big 10. What do you think his prospects will be if they lose three games?
As I said, I believe that Harbaugh is a good coach, that has proven to be able to win big games in the past. Michigan has had some unfortunate breaks the past couple of years. I like the fact that they have been embarrassed and have a burr in their saddle. I put a fair bit in that. It is the playoff or execution for them essentially.
I wholly agree about Dantonio and MSU. As good as they have been though they have never been elite or been able to hang with the elite. They return a lot from a 10 win team. They have a lot of good but I can’t say anything great, maybe linebackers? I would rank Dantonio as the best pure football coach in the NCAA, but he has never had the horses to be elite. Where are the first round pick projections for next year? They are always consistently good but not great. Which is a lot better than Michigan. They have an established qb, UM doesn’t. However, they will be in a world of hurt if he gets injured. How many MSU players would you take over UM players of you could swap them on rosters? Lewerke jumps out, maybe an o-lineman, possibly a d-tackle. I would take are skilled players on offence, secondary, linebackers, ends… (the whole defence). Is Lewerke better much than Shea?
My belief rests strongly on the fact that UM’s defence will be better this year, the offence was brutal last year and being average is a huge step up. This is a team fighting for it’s coaches life, I believe in the coach.
Burge333I will give my thoughts. 11-1.
Michigan should win 8 games pretty stress free (pre big ten schedule, Neb, NW, Mar, Rut, IND). Looking at Michigan they bring back one of the best defences in the country, that SHOULD get them through that group. ND being the best team in that group, but they have some big losses from last year and I suspect UM’s defense will control those games.
I can’t remember a defence as stacked at all three levels for Michigan, I think every starter on the defence and some backups will probably play in the NFL at some point. There is potential for a few first round picks, across all 3 levels. The team overall probably has more productive 5*’s than at any point I remember.
Then we come to the offence, after playing 3 QBs behind a poor performing offensive line and seemingly disconnected offensive coaching, while breaking in a new receiver core, it appears they should be significantly better. Realistically that means they could only be average. But the defence with an average offensive performance makes this a much better team. It is a team that was in a lot of close games last year. If the offensive line had decent players and bad coaching/scheme last year maybe they are good this year. If Patterson is good to great and Peters or DMcC develop this offence could be lights out… Skill positions are stacked! It has been a while, as everyone know it is all about the line and QB’s. They should each be better naturally, but a big step up out of either and this is a bloody good football team.
My guess is that with an average offensive team they go 2-2 in the other 4 games. However, I suspect they are going to be primed for MSU and OSU. If I had to guess I would say this is their year to beat each (might be more hopeful than anything). My guess for how each of the remaining 4 games rolls:
Wisconsin – Loss, but close. Wisc are bloody good this year. We are all looking forward to our D-Line vs their O-line.
MSU – Win. UM and Harbaugh need this game, the football gods can only fall MSU’s way so many times. Um could easily be 3-0 against MSU under Harbaugh.
PSU – Win. This is a home and home series. UM wins at home as does PSU.
OSU – I think UM wins this.
My prediction is 11-1. It might be somewhat optimistic, but UM has talent, a bruised ego and desperation. I still think they have really good coaching. I like that combination a lot.
I would guess that would leave UM playing Wisconsin in the B10 Championship, that would be a toss up. They would obviously have to win to be considered for the playoff.
On the flip side, if Michigan bumbles this year. I will have a 180 on the coaching and think Harbaugh should be on the hot seat or fired. He has simply not closed, with his history I am assuming he still can. If he doesn’t this year, that will be enough evidence for me to say he can’t win big games and needs to be fired or be on the hot seat. As I assume recruits will feel the same way and it will suffer greatly.
