LanknowsNice thing about analysts is there is no restriction on them*. Don Brown clearly values his insights.
*AFAIK. Obviously there is a budget but it’s not clear if/how Lempa takes someone elses spot or is just an addition.
LanknowsSafe to assume he will. Given his track record and age, he is a safer option for ND relative to the risk/reward of the HS recruit ND elected not to take to bring on Canteen.
LanknowsSo another guy that got medicaled by Michigan but ends up playing elsewhere?
LanknowsThat’s Footwork Freddy to you bub.
LanknowsThese have been around a few years and there are a number of them around town. big hit with the kids.
LanknowsNot a show but if you are interested in documentaries, 13th is a good one put out by Netflix.
LanknowsProbably going to win a couple heismans there.
LanknowsBrady Hoke too.
I’ll go to my grave defending Lloyd Carr but his coaching tree continues to look like crap.
LanknowsI never argued numbers were “just as effective a solution as improving your player development.” I argued it is a strategy to mitigate the lack of it and/or the uncertainty of it. Your solution leaves no Plan B and assumes the replacement is better than the guy fired – often not the case.
It’s not an opinion that we have quality depth at RB and WR. We’ve seen Drake Harris and Mo Ways and Drake Johnson and Ty Isaac and Derrik Green play. They may not be great but they are serviceable players. Compare that situation to OL where we have to start true freshman every year.
Why are you insisting on elite talent at RB and WR but not OL?
LanknowsDefense is indeed the team’s strength and I think the recruiting class reinforces that. Interesting that’s the case given Harbaugh is an offense-first guy.
BUT – the secondary is a huge question and can undo the whole thing. There’s talent there but it’s a high risk situation right now. No experience, not many bodies. Michigan is wise to look for grad transfers at safety.
I don’t agree about grad transfers at OT. Most development happens at practice. Getting your ass handed to you doesn’t necessarily make you better — see Kalis and Braden the last 3 years.
The OL situation is what it is. You can look back and moan or look ahead and fix it. The failure happened – admitting it (or not) is beside the point.
The 2018 team might not be better than 2017.
LanknowsI’m very much with you on that.
Lanknows2006 national DC of the year, 2011 MAC head coach of the year… now a secondary coach at Miss St.
Been a rough few years for English…
LanknowsHuge blow to the squad. I like Wheatley and Bunting, but Asiasi looked like the best overall TE on the team and given that he was a true freshman that was highly encouraging.
Of course I don’t know the family issues going on but it seems strange for a bay area kid to head to USC rather than Cal or Stanford.
Bummer
LanknowsInteresting article about characteristics of sleeper recruits.
The one I’ve talked about many times before:
Height is the crucial one, in part because at most positions it really doesn’t matter that much. The top linebackers these days are usually much shorter than the established prototype because tall guys usually lack the lateral range to play in space and still get low and blow things up between the tackles as modern linebackers must do.
This applies at other positions as well. Short guards can often still get low and drive DTs off the ball, especially in schemes that emphasize reach blocking or double teams. Shorter corners might technically be a little easier to beat with the perfect pass, but then taller corners are often going to get beat by the same pass. The range of passes that occur that the taller corner is going to stop that will beat the shorter corner is pretty small. What’s more, when you lower your restrictions on corners to allow players that are “only” 5-10 or so it greatly increases the pool of athletes that are capable of sticking in man coverage tightly enough that those precision passes to big targets even matter.
The value of the big corner is often more in how physical he plays rather than the difference in coverage, do your team’s short corners play physical? If he’s 180+, a big hitter, or has a wide wingspan you might be right when you tell yourself he’s as good as the four-star kid that went to Rival U.
Lanknowsre: Ruiz — if your argument is immediate need, then Solomon is certainly not the most important recruit because he has almost zero chance of starting and will be behind NFL-bound vets. If it’s immediate need then the most important guys are the OTs.
Of course recruits are mostly needed for future years. If we are talking about 2018 and beyond I ask: Who the hell is playing OC?!? If it’s not Ruiz Michigan is in serious trouble.
Compare that situation to DT. Michigan loses Hurst but will get back Mone, Dwumfour, and all the other ’17 recruits and ’18 recruits. Solomon is probably a starter in 2018 but again he will face competition from other elite prospects and has demonstrated some questions off-field. DeShawn Hand looked like a stud when he was a recruit, and is a very good player, but he still isn’t a starter.
Finally — our OL is already in deep shit, as you put it. There’s a damn good chance that Cole or Bredeson have to move to OT and that Ruiz has to start. You might even look at it as a competition between Ruiz and the other freshman for a starting spot since it appears very likely that at least one freshman will be starting.*
*The scenarios where this isn’t true require multiple people from a group including JBB, Ulizio, Kugler to make big leaps. Or grad transfers…
LanknowsMichigan has had Singleton and Anthony lined up for a while and still went all out for Gay. Telling.
Interesting that you don’t think 290-300 pound DTs can hack it at NT yet you’re happy to plug in ILBs at a position that goes to a DB that can tackle.
Jeter and Hudson are highly ranked DTs who, like Solomon, got elite offers (including Alabama). I would advise you again to stay away form the single-mindedly focusing on top 100 lists and website rankings. Who will be ready faster is speculative. Jeter’s an early enrollee. Hudson’s big.
Worth recalling the last sure-thing “pure DT” Michigan landed – Will Campbell. Worth recalling the last dominant “pure DT” Michigan played with – a former walk-on named Ryan Glasgow.
LanknowsNo offense but this is nonsense WCB. Nobody is arguing against player development. The point is Michigan might not have it (in sufficient supply). So what are you going to do about that? Just hope it’ll happen? Or attack the problem from every angle?
Yes – it takes from other positions. Other positions (like RB and WR) that have an overabundant supply of players.
LanknowsLess attrition would mean less need no? If you’re only replacing the 9 seniors what needs do you even have?
LanknowsNormal attrition over one year.
Indeed, I would be surprised if the class didn’t hit 20.
LanknowsI think some of it is just the hand that was dealt talent-wise. There weren’t too many elite CBs this year that had much natural interest in Michigan. They prioritized Thomas – probably a wise move – and didn’t seem to chase a bunch of guys they weren’t going to get who were better. Right or wrong.
I do think they would have been wise to go after a couple more DBs who are maybe considered ‘projects’ like the kid who went to Syracuse. That doesn’t resolve the immediate need though.
I think they figured they were better off grabbing a 2018 recruit than a project – a defensible strategy.
LanknowsThanks. I look forward to reading it.
LanknowsDon’t think we’re going to ever agree on this “pure DT” vs “DT/SDE” debate. Mattison made clear there was hardly a difference in his scheme, and Durkin and Brown seem to be on the same script.
While I do agree that we need some pure interior players (for NT mostly), I think we have them in Mone, Hurst, Dwumfour, and (apparently Lawrence Marshall). That Marshall is at DT now after being recruited as a WDE should be instructive enough.
As for this class I would expect “pure DT” will be more than covered between Jeter, Hudson, Paea and DIB. Jeter and Hudson in particular sound like excellent recruits that fans are sleeping on a bit.
Playing 300 pound dudes at SDE is a luxury. Solomon makes it more likely Michigan can do that. Solomon is a luxury.
LanknowsRuiz is more important than Soloman. I would argue Thomas is as well, given the immediate need at CB.
Would you rather have Gay or Solomon? Gay probably starts right away and Solomon will not, though I think 2018 depth chart may favor Solomon.
Villain could play more snaps and put up more impact plays than Soloman.
Whoever comes out of the OT heap may be a 4-year starter, but the fact I can’t name that one guy argues against them. Perhaps the most important recruit was one we didn’t get: Wilson.
…or Harris.
“Most important recruit” is an interesting debate. I don’t think the answer is so obvious.
LanknowsExcellent player development can overcome numbers and numbers are a solution to overcome slow or inconsistent player development. Maybe Greg Frey resolves the OL performance issues and maybe it something inherent to scheme that makes it take a long time. I have no idea and (for the purposes of this discussion) don’t really care. Michigan must do everything it can to fix the OL. That includes more recruits ASAP.
Hopefully they find a grad transfer for the immediate need at OT – there appear to be some players out there who can at least give JBB, Ulizio, and Filiago some competition.
LanknowsDon’t see a problem with taking a TE in the next class. There should be very few roster needs beyond what wasn’t addressed in 2017 (DB, OL, TE) and whatever attrition occurs.
1 (QB, RB, WR, TE) = 4
2 (LB) = 2
4 (OL, DL, DB) = 12
Total = 18
Adjust with attrition as needed.
LanknowsThis is NOT the best WR class in Michigan history. <—– Punctuation at the end of the sentence.
Walker and Terrell were not only the #1 and #2 WR in the country, they were both top 20 overall players regardless of position. Most years it is literally impossible to do that well. Michigan certainly didn’t this year.
Terrell was higher rated than DPJ. Walker was too, and MUCH higher rated than either Collins or Black. Maybe there wasn’t a Martin or Dawkins analogue but did that matter? Terrell and Walker were both great players who lived up to their lofty recruiting rankings. Even if this class somehow matches them — they are using 5 scholarships to do it.
In this case it is no insult to call it the second best class.
LanknowsAssuming the OL class it what is (i.e., no late addition) it will be 5 people. That is not enough!
2017:
We have an immediate need at OT. The recruiting class failed to land Wilson and looks poised to miss on Bechton too. While landing 4 potential tackles likely addresses the long term need, the chances of having 2 of them be ready next year is still pretty low. And Michigan may need 2 of them to play right away.
I can’t say Michigan had to take more than 4 tackles, but they did need to take more than 5 players total. The 2017 roster projects to only have 14 OL on the roster, 13 if you count Newsome as unavailable. This is too few, in almost any circumstance, but particularly true when only 5 players (Cole, Kugler, JBB, Runyan, Ulizio) will be available beyond the last 2 recruiting classes.
At least 2 of them are very unlikely to be starting caliber players (pick 2 guys outside of Cole who are sure-fire starters – you can’t). This puts a heavy heavy burden on youth. This is very very bad and we are left hoping for a hail mary grad transfer to avoid true freshman playing key roles again.
2018:
Michigan has worked very hard to address tackle because the position is in crisis. By 2018, especially with Newsome’s return (hopefully), and the situation getting sorted out one way the other in 2017, the OT position should be adequately addressed. But the staff seem to have overlooked the interior OL.
The projected 2018 roster is woefully lacking in interior line. While we can expect position changes, there are only 4 returning players projected for the 3 interior positions:
Bredeson, Onwenu, Runyan, Ruiz.
Anybody else would be a converted OT. The OC spot in particular is dicey – with all of Michigan’s eggs in the Ruiz basket.
Michigan is either going to have to find some grad transfers, move multiple OTs to OG, or we are once again looking at true freshman or walk-ons on the 2-deep.
It doesn’t have to be this way. As is, this is a flat out failure of recruiting. Either Michigan has intel on transfers (very possible) or they screwed up.
Frey and Drevno have their work cut out for them regardless, but the roster management should give them a reasonable chance. Thusfar, it does not look like that is happening.
It is very disappointing that this staff does not appear to have learned from the (arguably) biggest mistake of the Hoke regime. That they have 2 OL coaches indicates they have. That they will only have 13 OL available on the roster next year indicates they haven’t. Hopefully good news is forthcoming.
LanknowsI would also disagree with your 40% will be alienated comment. While broadly true there are a lot of issue where that’s simply not the case. This is a tribalist view that has put this country into the divisive environment that we have. There’s a whole lot of stuff that 8o or 90% of this country agrees with. IT would be nice if we could focus on building around that instead of saying half of people will disagree with every ‘opinion’ out there.
LanknowsThat’s up for debate.
If “Nobody is right” then “Nobody is wrong”. OK – people who rape children are wrong. You can disagree with that if you want – you are entitled to your opinion. That is mine.
There are certain common beliefs that we have to have to function as a civilized society. Just saying everything is opinion and nothing is right or wrong undoes that.
LanknowsI mean you are probably right that TTB won’t be the most popular M blog but at least you give a damn and bring consistent day to day effort. Over time this is something that people notice and appreciate. Your site growing is a testament to that. Keep it up.
LanknowsI believe people are entitled to their varied opinions that do not fit neatly into one category. Bill Mahr is entitled to be a “liberal” while also being an overt bigot.
LanknowsWhat is cowardly about the other site’s “stance” is the timing of it. Brian could have stated this opinion in October or November and it would have been far more meaningful. Like it or not (and most of us here probably do not), Brian has a large following and significant influence – especially with the younger portion of the Michigan fanbase.
Everybody is entitled to their own breaking point I suppose, but the guy in office said he was going to do hateful things and he’s doing them. Brian is great when he writes with a passion. Apparently the Trump campaign didn’t illicit those feelings.
LanknowsI believe in right and wrong. You can call these opinions if you want. I call it civilization.
LanknowsFrey’s interview on WTKA was confidence-inducing. It’s clear he’s very excited to be back at Michigan and working with Harbaugh.
The blocking-scheme question came up and Frey was unconcerned. He said something to the effect of “I’ll coach what they tell me to”. The THEY there is presumably Drevno and Harbaugh.
As for delegation of duties it’s clear they have a plan. Doesn’t sound like Frey will have a real role in play-calling, but this staff has been collaborative in the past. He sounded excited to be able to coach with Drevno and exchange ideas. He was very humble “I want to learn from these guys” and excited.
I think having both Drevno and Frey will be very very helpful for next year. Especially with the situation at OT – having Frey focused on just those guys should pay dividends.
LanknowsThe grad transfer market looks increasingly likely. Signing day is in less than a week and things are VERY quiet on the Michigan front. The coaching staff appears to be trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat by turning things around with a handful of elite prospects who they are unlikely to sign.
What does that mean? Open Scholarships.
Open scholarships are not going to be the final outcome, so grad transfers likely will be. There are several holes on the 2017 roster but OT is the most obvious. Michigan also needs help at several defensive positions, most notably CB.
Grad transfers have traditionally not been great prospects outside of the QB position but there’s no real good reason that has to remain true. Look for Harbaugh and company to be aggressive about letting it be known that there is big flashing vacancy sign at OT. If you’re an All American at a D3 level, if you’re all conference performer in a non-power conference – Michigan offers you an opportunity to prove yourself and maybe improve your draft prospects or position.
Also – like the kid from Clemson – conventional transfers may be an option as well. That one’s tougher because Michigan needs immediate help and it can be tough to offer 2 years of scholarship to get 1 year of playing time down the line. You have to be damn confident that player is an impact guy.
LanknowsThe 2018 OL should be better than the 2017 OL. They’ll lose Cole and Kugler but perhaps gain everyone else while hopefully also adding that OT from Clemson and a healthy return from Newsome.
YOu can make a similar assertion about the secondary. Any other position – who knows what the future holds.
LanknowsYou never know what attrition happens between now and then. That’s the problem with the 2-years-from-now analysis. They never consider a handful of busts, injuries and transfers that will inevitably occur. In Summer 2014 nobody thought Kyle Kalis would continue to struggle, Shame Morris would be a 3rd string backup who transfers away, Michigan would rely on freshman on the OL again, and Jabril Peppers would never play a Bowl Game at Michigan. All of these things happened and there will be more of the same in 2018.
Name the top 5 guys you are most excited about in 2018. Now assume 2 of them are not playing. Does 2018 still look so optimistic if you balance worst case and best case?
Our best players next year will likely include Hurst, Mone, Gary, McCray, Speight, and Cole. You might only get 1 or 2 of them back in 2018. And don’t forget that MSU and OSU will be on the road again that year.
Michigan’s schedule next year is very conducive to winning a big ten title next season. Michigan fans should be cautious about looking too far ahead.
LanknowsWe should trust what the coaches say – their actions, not take everything they say at face value. Like in most situations actions are more meaningful.
What this means is that Onwenu is probably ahead of his peers (returning ’17 OL), Bredeson expected. That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to be a high quality Big Ten starter as a sophomore.
I’m excited about Onwenu. I think he’s a legit talent. I think he’s going to step up, especially with Frey and Drevno both on staff. Harbaugh’s statements are interesting, as our David Dawson’s (who also praised Onwenu extensively). Cause for optimism, but not erasers of doubt.
The OL coaches might not be elite. Drevno’s has not looked anywhere near it so far. I would argue Frey’s track record is pretty good but there’s probably a dozen OL coaches at least who can make a stronger claim.
Onwenu is clearly worth a scholarship offer. Recruiting and playing time at Michigan are separate conversations. I suspect your reliance, overly so IMO, on recruiting rankings is causing you to conflate different issues here. Like Ty Isaac, Shane Morris, and the rest – starz don’t matter once you’re enrolled. Alabama and OSU have dozens of kids rated higher than Onwenu flaming out or taking years to develop. This is a normal thing, even for highly ranked kids. It’s not very hard to look back on a top 100 list from 3 or 4 years ago and see this.
LanknowsI would absolutely not rule them out form winning the east – the schedule is far more conducive for it than it was last year. A big ten title is not off the table. This is Michigan!
The development of guys like Onwenu and Ulizio, and the potential addition of a grad transfer, will have a huge impact on the season.
The only real questions about the 2017 team is the OL and secondary. I wouldn’t give up on either unit yet – but the pressure is on the coaches.
Anyway, the difference between 8 and 10 wins is huge for Michigan.
If you are arguing that Michigan will be far better off in 2018 than 2017, I think that’s highly debatable.
LanknowsBecause what Harbaugh says about players and how they play on the field aren’t always perfectly aligned.
It could take a long time because – it often takes a long time.
Onwenu had an encouraging freshman year, but Kalis, Braden, and Bredeson were not exactly stand outs and he wasn’t as good. Onwenu needs to take a huge step forward. He could, but he might not.
LanknowsWe have no choice but to hope Onwenu is ready. I’m just trying to be realistic and acknowledge there’s a pretty decent probability he isn’t.
That two true sophomores (one of whom has only played spot duty) are being counted on to start illustrates how much of a debacle the OL situation is. We can blame Hoke for it I suppose but we’re entering year 3 and plenty of Drevno’s guys are around. If Drevno is as good as he was hyped to be than guys like Bredeson, Onwenu, and Ulizio will step up. If not… I think he should be encouraged to seek other opportunities.
LanknowsNot only was he a freshman, he was a freshman safety thrust in a LB role on short notice. He isn’t Peppers (of course) but in the big picture his freshman year was highly encouraging.
LanknowsLike you’ve argued in the past, the grad transfer market is generally not overflowing with high caliber talent. LTT may or may not be an upgrade and brings baggage. But Michigan doesn’t have a single proven option so… I think they’d be foolish to not add someone to come in and compete.
I wonder if this has something to do with the lack of late recruiting offers.
LanknowsWaiting isn’t an appealing option, but most people aren’t ready to start and play well as sophomores. Guys that can are typically NFL bound. Is Onwenu?
LanknowsMost likely to push the above starters out.
1. Ruiz. Starting at OC probably isn’t in the cards until 2018, but if he’s as ready as everyone hopes he could push Bredeson to tackle.
2. Filiaga. Is very large. Probably starts if Ulizio isn’t ready.
3. Kugler. Played last year so there’s that. Probably only if someone above is hurt or falters (which is likely given all the uncertainty)
4. LTT (or another grad transfer). It could happen!
5. Steuber. Freshman OL are a crapshoot. Maybe put Hall (early enrollee) here instead.
LanknowsThe REAL best case might be Michigan landing Gay for the hybrid LB/DB spot, which would allow Metellus to stick at safety and perhaps free Hudson for a nickel role. If Michigan can use 3 safeties (Kinnell, Hudson, Metellus) more than it uses 3 CBs, we will likely be better off.
LanknowsCB Depth Chart (combined)
1. Hill
2. Watson
3. ….
throw up hands at a short list of inexperienced candidates. I would put Thomas over Long, Washington, and St. Juste but it’s pure guesswork.
Consensus opinion on Long was enthusiastic but usually you hear a lot more from an impact CB in his freshman year, even if he doesn’t play much. Everyone wants St. Juste to red-shirt but with only 6 CBs it’s doubtful. You need a 2-deep for boundary, field, and nickel. Some overlap with safety is possible but that position is thin too.
If anyone red-shirts it’s because they are behind schedule.
Thomas and Hill are starters – youthful mistakes happen but both appear poised for stardom.
Watson offers veteran stability at nickel with JKP looking like an eventual heir.
Long’s freshman year is deemed an anomaly, he pushes Thomas & Hill and is the clear #3.
Washington is a capable backup, still raw but physically gifted, we see flashes – just give him a couple more years.
St. Juste gets to red-shirt.
LanknowsFWIW it has been suggested that this may be Drevno’ last year at Michigan. He is looking for a head gig. I can’t imagine who would hire him based on the mediocre results so far at Michigan but you never know.
LanknowsI think you make some good points but Michigan can operate how it wants too. Hoke offered far fewer players and still got good results in recruiting.
John’s numbers indicate it isn’t the way of the world, and some teams pursue a different strategy.
Simmons being an AA kid is what drove the feeling that it took so long. If he lived in CA he probably wouldn’t feel that way. Michigan had no reason not to offer unless they didn’t think highly of him – they were the outliers in that regard especially when Simmons was considered a top 100 kid earlier in the recruiting cycle.
The difference I think with Alabama and OSU is that they have a waiting list of local 4-star kids who will come the minute an offer is on the table. Michigan’s backyard isn’t quite as talented and is divided with MSU/ND. So our Plan B kids are 3-stars from the north.
I have no issue with how Harbaugh is recruiting as long as he is clear with kids about what an offer and, more importantly, a commitment, actually means.
They should be called preliminary invitations and tentative reservations.
LanknowsI’ve said a lot of negative things related to Morris over the years but it was always about unrealistic expectations that fans had for him. He was overrated as a recruit and overrated as a player. But delusional fans have nothing to do with him as a person or his character. This year in particular, he really impressed with his willingness to block on running plays this year. Not a lot of QBs would do that.
Good luck to him. I’ll be rooting for him to kick ass at CMU and hope he has a great year on the field and off.
