RUSH OFFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #11 in rushing offense (234.3 yards/game) and #6 in yards per carry. Blake Corum has been the workhorse so far, leading the team with 64 attempts for 478 yards and a nation-high 9 rushing touchdowns. Backup Donovan Edwards was rumored to have been coming back to play last week, but he sat out the Maryland game and has not broken out yet this year (127 total yards, 2 touchdowns). I’m cautiously optimistic that he will play against the Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, Iowa is #6 in rushing defense (73 yards allowed/game) and #4 in yards allowed per carry (2.21). They have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. Senior middle linebacker Jack Campbell (6’5″, 246 lbs.) spearheads the defense with 39 tackles and weakside linebacker Seth Benson (6’0″, 232) follows behind with 30 stops. Iowa’s two starting defensive tackles are 289 and 275 pounds, so they’re not big up the middle, but they are relatively quick and athletic. Lukas Van Ness (6’5″, 275) is part of a potent rotation at defensive tackle and leads the team with 5 tackles for loss. Iowa’s defensive backs also do a very good job of triggering on the run and tackling; the defensive backfield ranks #3 through #6 on the team in tackles, and while usually that’s not a good sign for the front seven, in this case they’re all part of a very good defense. Iowa runs a 4-3 (or 4-2-5) with two high safeties, so the defensive backs need to be good tacklers or else teams would run the ball all over them.
Advantage: Iowa
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. IOWA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan had a “bad” day passing last week when quarterback J.J. McCarthy completed just 18/26 passes for 220 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. There were two big frustrations: 1) he missed several deep shots and 2) he sat in the pocket too long waiting for things to open up. Many quarterbacks wouldn’t mind that being their bad day. Michigan is #53 in sacks allowed (1.75 per game) and should get starting left guard Trevor Keegan back from injury. On the receiving end, Edwards could provide a boost out of the backfield, but the #1 target has been Ronnie Bell (17 catches, 253 yards, 1 touchdown) with Roman Wilson (8 catches, 196 yards, 3 TD) and Luke Schoonmaker (10 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD) also factoring in heavily. Iowa has the #14 pass defense in the nation (163.3 yards allowed/game) and the #3 passer rating defense. They’re #16 in sacks (3.0 per game) despite not having a dominant pass rusher. Van Ness has 3 sacks to lead the squad. On the back end, all four of Iowa’s starters are in their fourth year or later, and nickel player Cooper DeJean (6’1″, 209) already has 3 interceptions. Last week against Rutgers, he returned 1 interception for a touchdown and safety Kaevon Merriweather (6’0″, 212) scored on a fumble return. McCarthy threw a pick in limited time in the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa last year, and hopefully he can avoid big mistakes in this one.
Advantage: Iowa
RUSH DEFENSE vs. IOWA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #35 in rush defense (109 yards allowed/game) and #29 in yards per carry allowed (3.16). Last week Maryland required 34 carries to get 128 yards, which isn’t terrible for Maryland (3.76 yards/carry) but is unlikely to help a team take over the game against a team with a quality offense. Inside linebacker Junior Colson tallied 13 tackles last week and leads the team with 30 so far this year, followed by fellow inside guy Mike Barrett (18), nose tackle Mazi Smith (16), and nickel corner (15). It’s not often that a nose tackle is #3 on a team in tackles, but Smith was #1 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for a reason. Iowa is #116 in rushing offense (102 yards/game) and #118 in yards per carry (3.03). Iowa traditionally has a strong offensive line, but they are struggling this year. They have a couple competent running backs, but Leshon Williams (5’10”, 210) averages 3.5 yards per carry and Gavin Williams (6’0″, 214) averages 3.4. In the Big Ten conference, those YPC averages are #36 and #38 amongst qualifying runners. Yikes. (For a comparison, Iowa’s backs in 2021 were #14, #15, and #16 in the conference.) Whereas Iowa often turns a bunch of ho-hum recruits to play offensive line – and turns them into studs – right guard Beau Stephens and right tackle Connor Colby both were quality recruits who aren’t playing great. Center Logan Jones (6’3″, 283) is likely going to have a rough day trying to block Smith.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. IOWA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #4 in pass defense (134.8 yards allowed/game) and #5 in passing efficiency defense. They’re tied for #2 in yards per attempt allowed at just 4.7; the only team ahead of them is Iowa, and the only team tied with them is Illinois. The Big Ten rules! (Unless you think about the fact that some of those numbers have come against poor Big Ten passing offenses.) Anyway, both cornerback D.J. Turner and safety R.J. Moten made acrobatic interceptions last week, and the entire secondary played well except when covering Maryland’s tight ends. The question mark comes in the pass rush, where 292 lb. defensive end Mike Morris and nickel corner Mike Sainristil lead the team with 2 sacks each. Meanwhile, Iowa is #124 in passing offense (131 yards/game) and #125 in passing efficiency. Senior quarterback Spencer Petras (6’5″, 231) has completed 51.1% of his passes for 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions on 5.6 yards per attempt. The most frequent target is senior tight end Sam LaPorta (6’4″, 249), who averages 9.6 yards on 16 receptions. Sophomore wideout Arland Bruce IV (5’10”, 198) has caught 10 passes for 132 yards and Iowa’s lone passing touchdown. Iowa allows 2.25 sacks per game, which is tied for #79 in the country.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Iowa players recruited by Michigan include: WR Arland Bruce IV, OT Connor Colby, OT David Davidkov, S Koen Entringer, DE Max Llewellyn, S Xavier Nwankpa, RB Jaziun Patterson, OG Beau Stephens, RB Gavin Williams
- Iowa players from the state of Michigan include: S Branden Deasfernandes (Belleville), S Koen Entringer (Walled Lake Western), CB Deshaun Lee (Belleville), S Kaevon Merriweather (Belleville)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…
- On December 4, 2021, Michigan beat Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game
- QB Cade McNamara completed 16/24 passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
- RB Donovan Edwards completed a 75-yard halfback pass to WR Roman Wilson for a touchdown
- RB Blake Corum scored on a 67-yard touchdown run
- Iowa QB Spencer Petras completed 9/22 passes for 137 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 24, Iowa 10
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