RUSH OFFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #15 in rushing (252 yards/game) and yards per carry (5.52). They’re #29 in Adjusted Line Yards with an offensive front that has been a bit of a revolving door on the left side. Freshman Ben Bredeson and fifth year senior Ben Braden are now the starters on the left, while the other three starters have played every game. Starting running back De’Veon Smith had his second 100-yard game of the season against Maryland last week with 19 carries for 114 yards and 3 touchdowns. All the tailbacks average more than 5.1 yards/carry, and the guy dragging down the rushing average is fullback Khalid Hill . . . who’s the short yardage option and has 9 touchdowns. Iowa is #118 in defensive ALY, #72 in rushing defense (177 yards allowed/game), and #65 in yards allowed per carry (4.29). Linebacker Josey Jewell (6’2″, 235 lbs.) leads the team by a large margin with 87 tackles, which is 19 more than fellow linebacker Bo Bower (6’1″, 235). Defensive end Parker Hesse (6’3″, 250) is a solid run defender with 5.5 tackles for loss. The Hawkeyes run a rather predictable 4-3 defense, but they’re usually disciplined and well coached.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more on the Michigan-Iowa matchup.
PASS OFFENSE vs. IOWA PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are #17 in Adjusted Sack Rate. They’re also #17 in sacks allowed with 12 so far. They struggled early in the season with some adjustments to blitzes, but it seemed like Mason Cole was going through some growing pains calling protections, and left guard Ben Braden’s injury/absence caused some issues. Now that Cole has 75% of a season at center under his belt, and now that Braden appears to be healthy, things seem to be clicking. It helps that 6’6″, 243 lb. quarterback Wilton Speight has shown some nifty feet in the pocket. Michigan is #49 in passing offense (246 yards/game) and #15 in passer rating. Jehu Chesson had his first 100-yard game (5 catches, 112 yards, 1 TD) of the season last week, which makes two years in a row that he has waited until game nine to hit the century mark. Is he ready to go on another hot streak like he did over the final five games of 2015? Meanwhile, Amara Darboh is the #1 guy with 741 yards and 6 TDs, and tight end Jake Butt has 421 yards and 4 scores. Iowa has a pretty good pass rush with the #25 Adjusted Sack Rate on defense, and they’re #59 in sacks. Defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson (6’4″, 310) and defensive end Matt Nelson (6’8″, 282) have 5.5 and 5.0 sacks, respectively, and I particularly like Johnson’s quickness inside. The Hawkeyes only have 5 interceptions on the season (tied for #101), led by safety Brandon Snyder with 2. All-American cornerback Desmond King exists, and his 1 interception this year was returned for a 41-yard TD against Purdue; last year King had 8 interceptions. He’s dangerous, and teams are staying away from him. Speight has been improving throughout this season, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have another solid game because the coaching staff game plans well.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. IOWA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan’s defensive line is #1 in defensive Adjusted Line Yards. The defense is #10 against the run (107 yards/game) and #6 in yards per carry allowed (3.11). The Wolverines are also tied for #1 in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed with 3. Middle linebacker Ben Gedeon (69 tackles), strongside linebacker Jabrill Peppers (53), and weakside linebacker Mike McCray (48) lead the team in tackles. Teams can run directly at Peppers and they can try to spread out the Wolverines and run sideline to sideline like Maryland did, but it’s tough sledding either way. All three of those linebackers have 10+ tackles for loss, and backup nose tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. isn’t far behind with 8.5. Michigan State did a good job of running the ball by running power, but Iowa is more of a zone team, and Michigan has the horses up front who can hold up to double-teams and get penetration. The Hawkeyes are #93 in rushing offense (153 yards/game), #71 in rushing average (4.34 yards/carry), and #23 in Adjusted Line Yards. They have two running backs who get a pretty equal amount of run. First is LeShun Daniels, Jr. (6’0″, 225), who has 642 yards, averages 4.98 a carry, and has 6 touchdowns. The other is Akrum Wadley (5’11”, 191) with 664 yards, 6.7 yards/carry, and 8 scores. Daniels is the bruiser, and Wadley is the home run threat. Both are solid backs and have remained healthy, so only two other backs have touched the ball (14 carries total). Meanwhile, the offensive line has been unimpressive outside of right guard Sean Welsh. I think Wadley might be able to break off a good-sized run or two because he’s quick like that, but this should be a pretty good matchup for Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. IOWA PASS OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate. They allowed 289 yards to Maryland – mostly on tunnel screens – but their 138 passing yards allowed/game is still #1 in the country. They’re #4 in passer rating defense and tied for #10 in passing touchdowns allowed (8). The Wolverines get sacks from everywhere – they have 30 total, but the leader is Taco Charlton with 4.5. Charlton, backup Chase Winovich, and nose tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. have been the most consistent at generating a pass rush. On the back end, Michigan plays a lot of Cover 2 and a lot of man coverage. Cornerback Channing Stribling and safety Delano Hill lead the way with 3 interceptions each, and standout corner Jourdan Lewis has 2 picks and 7 pass breakups. The Hawkeyes are #112 in Adjusted Sack Rate on offense. They’re #106 in passing yards (183 per game) and #63 in passer rating. Quarterback C.J. Beathard, who unseated Jake Rudock, completes 59.5% of his passes for 7.0 yards/attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. It’s not all his fault, because a) Iowa’s offense is very predictable and b) top receiver Matt VandeBerg is out for the season. That latter issue leaves possession guy Riley McCarron (378 yards, 11.1 yards/catch, 3 TDs) as the go-to guy, while tight end George Kittle (6’4″, 250) averages 15.2 yards/catch but only averages 2.1 receptions per game. Beathard can scramble a little bit and keep plays alive, but he’s not a game-changer.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Iowa players offered by Michigan include: RB Toks Akinribade, C James Daniels, DT Faith Ekakitie, OT Alaric Jackson, DT Jaleel Johnson, OG Sean Welsh
- Iowa players from the state of Michigan include: Birmingham (MI) Groves CB Cedric Boswell, Detroit (MI) East English Village DE Chauncey Golston, Detroit (MI) Renaissance OT Alaric Jackson, Detroit (MI) East English Village CB Desmond King, Detroit (MI) East English Village DT Cedrick Lattimore, Farmington Hills (MI) Harrison LB Mario Ojemudia, Detroit (MI) Country Day QB Tyler Wiegers
- Iowa LB Michael Ojemudia is the younger brother of former Michigan DE Mario Ojemudia
- Iowa DE Brady Reiff is the younger brother of Detroit Lions OT Riley Reiff
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Michigan was up 21-7 at halftime and allowed 17 unanswered points in the second half
- Defensive end Brennen Beyer scored Michigan’s first TD on a 7-yard INT return
- A.J. Williams caught his first pass (a touchdown!)
- Jake Rudock completed 19/30 passes for 239 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs . . . for Iowa
- November 23, 2013: Iowa 24, Michigan 21
PREDICTIONS
- Wilton Speight throws for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Jabrill Peppers scores on a touchdown run
- Jourdan Lewis jumps a route for an interception
- Akrum Wadley breaks off a 40-yard run
- Michigan 42, Iowa 10
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The only thing that worries me about this game is that it’s at night in a hostile environment, and Iowa is not as terrible as Rutgers. Other than that, Hawkeyes are a poor man’s version of Wisconsin, and we should be able to win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
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I am worried about this game for mostly irrational reasons but nonetheless…
As with MSU, history says that @Iowa is a tough game, and road games generally feel tougher at night. Ferentz, like Dantonio, will have a few tricks up his sleeve.
Also, Michigan is still very untested and unproven away from AA. MSU was just down the road with a lot of support from ‘older siblings’. Rutgers isn’t exactly a hostile environment and the NY diaspora was evident even on TV.
Iowa is down but they’re always well coached and they have a couple standout players that could show out against the preseason question-marks on this roster (Kittle against LBs, King against Speight).
Finally, the parallels to 97 are very strong with this team and Iowa was the team that really brought a surprise push against Michigan that season.
Predictions:
Michigan 27 – Iowa 13
King gets an INT
Kittle 60+ yards receiving
Speight-for-Heisman campaign enters hibernation
Smith runs for 100 yards but takes 20+ carries to get there
OSU game line moves 3 or 4 points towards the bad guys
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The thing that makes Iowa less intimidating than MSU in my mind, is that MSU will always play their best against Michigan out of sheer hatred. Plus I think that MSU is a more talented squad with more speed that runs a more complex system. I could see this game being close if Iowa can shut down the run with a 7 man box.
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I don’t get it… is sparty a tougher game because they hate our guts and Dantonio is a great coach, or is it an easier game because it’s right down the road?
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I put more weight on the well coached, guts hatin’ argument. It’s the same distance either way and they always have played tough against us in this rivalry.
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M fans shouldn’t fool themselves that the hate goes one-way.
Iowa was a tougher game than MSU because a)Iowa is a better team than MSU and b) Iowa City is a more authentic road environment like what M will see in Columbus.
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Give me 31-10. Not another blowout, but a convincing yet boring game nonetheless
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