(image via Twitter)
RUSH OFFENSE vs. MARYLAND RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #14 in rush offense (249 yards/game) and #22 in yards per carry (5.37). Senior De’Veon Smith retook the rushing lead last week when freshman Chris Evans played sparingly due to a concussion he suffered two weeks ago, but four players have 348+ yards. One to watch is sophomore Karan Higdon (7.6 yards/carry, 6 TDs), who seems to be gaining more and more trust from the coaches. Michigan’s offensive line struggled with Michigan State’s defensive line last week – especially Malik McDowell – but Maryland isn’t so talented on the defensive line. They’re #108 in rushing defense (220 yards allowed/game) and #96 in yards allowed per carry (4.8). The team is led by Shane Cockerille with 73 tackles; Cockerille was recruited by Michigan as a QB/S athlete and has grown into a 6’2″, 235 lb. ‘backer. Defensive tackle Kingsley Opara has 8 tackles for loss, but the defensive line is slightly undersized and lacks a dominant nose tackle to plug the middle. They’ll slant a lot and try to hit gaps, and it will be up to Michigan’s offensive linemen to wash them out of the play.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more preview.
PASS OFFENSE vs. MARYLAND PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #71 in passing offense (228 yards/game) and #23 in passer rating. Quarterback Wilton Speight threw a bad interception last week, but he completes almost 63% of his passes and has 13 touchdowns compared to just 3 picks so far. Amara Darboh has turned into the clear #1 target with 38 catches, 664 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Speight does a solid job of avoiding sacks despite resembling a pocket statue, and the Wolverines have tied for #19 in sacks allowed (11) because of it. Maryland is tied for #41 in sacks with 20, but those have tapered off recently; they averaged 3.4 sacks/game for the first five weeks, but they’ve recorded just 1 in each of the last three weeks. The sacks leader is defensive end Jesse Aniebonam with 5.5, while defensive end Roman Braglio and linebacker Jermaine Carter, Jr. have 3 each. Starting cornerbacks Alvin Hill (2) and J.C. Jackson (1) have three of the team’s four interceptions, and dangerous slot corner Will Likely is out for the season. Maryland is #18 in pass defense (181 yards allowed/game) and #27 in passer rating allowed. The Terps will run a lot of man coverage, which could open up some opportunities for Speight and others to scramble. The Wolverines should be able to run in order to open up the pass, but it won’t be a walk in the park to throw the ball.
Advantage: Maryland
RUSH DEFENSE vs. MARYLAND RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan dropped to #15 in rush defense (111 yards allowed/game) and sits at #16 in yards allowed per carry (3.26). They had a rough outing last week against a power-running Michigan State team, but they have mostly done well against teams that try to spread them out to run. Ben Gedeon leads the team with 58 tackles, Jabrill Peppers has 48, and Mike McCray II has 43 – those are Michigan’s three linebackers. Peppers leads the team with 12 tackles for loss, and that ranks him at #11 nationally. Maryland is a spread-to-run offense that averages 252 yards/game (#12) and averages 5.74 yards/carry (#11). Lorenzo Harrison (7.3 yards/carry, 5 TDs) and Ty Johnson (10.4 yards/carry, 4 TDs) are the top two runners, and both are potential home run hitters with good speed and quickness. Quarterback Perry Hills is also a decent runner, but not a gamebreaker. The offensive line is mediocre, but Michigan has a very good defensive line that should be able to dominate Maryland’s right side – a side that consists of former blue-chip blockers Terrance Davis and Damien Prince. Both units are solid, but Maryland isn’t as physical up front as Michigan State. I think Michigan will allow a few good runs, but they won’t get hit in the mouth like last week.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. MARYLAND PASS OFFENSE
The Wolverines are still #1 in pass defense (120 yards allowed/game) and have allowed 8 touchdowns with 8 interceptions. Teams are averaging just 5.0 yards/attempt (#1) and the Wolverines are #2 in passer rating against them. They’re tied for #44 in interceptions and for #11 in sacks. Corners Channing Stribling (3) and Jourdan Lewis (2) lead the squad in interceptions. Nobody is having a great season of rushing the quarterback, but defensive end Taco Charlton can consistently overpower linemen and has 4 sacks, despite missing a couple games due to injury. Maryland is tied for #111 in sacks allowed (24) despite being a team that likes to run the ball and get rid of it quickly in the passing game. They’re #110 in passing offense (172 yards/game) and #63 in passer rating. Quarterback Perry Hills (66.4% completions, 10 TDs, 3 INTs) throws a lot of screens and short passes, which is good because he struggles to throw downfield. Wide receiver D.J. Moore (400 yards, 14.3 yards/catch, 5 TDs) and slot receiver Teldrick Morgan (316 yards, 11.3 yards/catch, 3 TDs) are the top two targets, and both can run a little bit after the catch. Michigan has done well against screens and has some speedy defenders who can tackle in space, so the quick screens Maryland runs may not work so well against the Wolverines.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Maryland players recruited by Michigan include: RB Wes Brown, LB Shane Cockerille, OG Terrance Davis, DE Melvin Keihn, OG Richard Merritt, OT Damian Prince, CB Antwaine Richardson
- Maryland CB Antwaine Richardson (2 tackles, 1 pass breakup) was previously committed to Michigan
- Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin was Michigan’s defensive coordinator in 2015
- Maryland linebackers coach Matt Barnes was a defensive analyst at Michigan in 2015
- Maryland Director of Football Operations Dan Pallante is the father of former Michigan FB/DT Brady Pallante
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- October 3, 2015: Michigan 28, Maryland 0
- Maryland managed just 7 first downs
- Desmond Morgan and Jourdan Lewis recorded interceptions for Michigan
- Drake Johnson was the star with 99 total yards and 2 touchdowns
- Jehu Chesson broke off a 66-yard touchdown on a jet sweep
PREDICTIONS
- Jabrill Peppers gets his first interception
- Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson combine for 110 yards rushing
- Michigan rushes for 300 yards with Chris Evans leading the way with 90
- Michigan 41, Maryland 13
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With Bill Connely’s advanced stats readily available, the some/most of these raw stats are increasingly irrelevant and misleading. Michigan’s passing game has been close to, if not better, than the run game. But because the defense has dominated, Michigan has run the ball a whole lot to protect leads and try to kill clock. This has inflated the raw production stats cited above and created a misleading statistical story.
Interestingly, both FEI and S&P love Michigan’s offense and see them as a top 20 unit in most measures. Not sure I buy that, but their methodologies generally value efficiency over explosiveness.
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Worth noting: Ty Isaac barely played last week, even though Chris Evans was out. He’s likely your 4th string back.
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That said it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Isaac rushed for 100 yards tomorrow against this defense. I expect to see the ‘heavy rotation’ return in the backfield, as we’ve seen in the noncompetitive games.
I think there’s be a pretty strong correlation in % of snaps Deveon Smith gets and how competitive/meaningful the game is. Last week Smith got 60% (per Mgoblog) despite Higdon getting a big chunk of the late-game clock-kill carries.
I do want to see Michigan try to be aggressive and throw the ball from the outset. I would expect Durkin to sellout to stop the run and trust his pass-rushers to make life hard on Speight.
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So… the ranking of any RB on a JH team is simply more dynamic and not what we traditionally think of as 1st through 4th strings.
Smith is tough and a better pass blocker, he helps to soften the opposition and hopefully establish our game plan. After him Evans and Higdon have speed to the hole and open field skills and Isaac has a big body and some speed. Love the competition.
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Each guy brings different strengths and weaknesses. I’m not sure how this is a new dynamic or significantly different than under our previous 3 coaches. See 1997, 2009, 2012.
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Dynamic as opposed to static in relationship. The difference between the “string” is less than and more changeable than many who have played the game will attest.
Most of our offenses in the past have traditionally developed a go to guy and rode him to victory. Of course JH may do the same if that situation clearly presents itself. JH and Wheatley are not following this formula.as yet.
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Maybe he was 3d string last week, but he’s been first in after Smith all season. While I like Higdon better, I don’t agree Isaac is now 4th string
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Not all season, just at the beginning. Evans and Higdon have passed him as they’ve earned the coaches stuff. Similar situation in 97 as a freshman (Thomas) took snaps away from vets as the year wore on.
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A week after Karan Higdon’s first big game, he didn’t play at all. After De’Veon Smith fumbled a few weeks ago, he got benched for most of the rest of the game. Things have been fluctuating all season.
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That game was decided and people who fumble lose playing time every year. Last year Isaac all but sat out half the season after his fumble troubles.
Higdon missing that Wisc game was mysterious. I have to think it was injury or discipline related. He was right back the following week.
Evans missed a game because he got hurt.
This kind of stuff is standard.
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I don’t see that way. The depth chart has evolved behind Smith, but we’ve seen similar situations like in 1997 where one guy didn’t do everything, different players brought different skills, and a freshman earned trust and grew into a bigger role.
Smith’s the primary guy and his backups have changed but it’s not a ‘dynamic’ situation as much as it is Higdon and Evans have surged ahead of Isaac.
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Question:
With Maryland being a solid/effective spread-to-run team, do you see this game as good preparation for OSU? More or less so than Indiana?
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I think Maryland is more OSU-like than Indiana. Indiana will run more tempo, and they’ll try just about anything to get an edge. Trick plays, counters, etc. I feel like Indiana is almost a really good high school team that has a “system” and the coach just runs everything he can out of that system. Meanwhile, I think Maryland is going to run some pretty basic plays, try to run them really well, and hope to get some breaks or out-execute opponents.
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