Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense
Michigan is #34 in rushing yardage (201 yards/game), and the 4.77 yards/carry is good enough for #42 nationally. Starting running back De’Veon Smith returned last week after a one-week absence, but he limped off again after gaining 59 yards on 8 carries against Northwestern. Drake Johnson seemed to move into the backup role, but he’s working through an undisclosed injury. That leaves Derrick Green, a recently demoted Ty Isaac, and true freshman Karan Higdon, who just burned his redshirt. At this point it’s anybody’s guess who’s going to get carries from week to week, but you can count on a couple handoffs to the fullbacks (20 carries, 116 yards, 1 touchdown this year) and one or two carries by wide receiver Jehu Chesson. Michigan’s offensive line is #86 in Adjusted Line Yards, so they’re not moving people off the ball with regularity. The Spartans are allowing 130 yards/game on the ground (#34 nationally), and the 3.77 yards allowed/carry is 47th in the country. Middle linebacker Riley Bullough leads the team with 55 tackles, and outside ‘backers Jon Reschke and Darien Harris follow with 38 and 37, respectively. Michigan State is tied for 15th in the nation with 45 tackles for loss, but many of those have come in the form of sacks, not in disrupting the run game. The Spartans lack a consistent disruptive force against the run. I don’t think either team has a decided advantage, but I’ll give a leg up in scheming to Michigan.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense
The Wolverines are 97th in passing yardage/game with just 189 yards, and the team passer rating is 96th. Quarterback Jake Rudock struggled with turnovers early in the season (5 interceptions in the first three games), but he has just 1 pick in the last three. He has been helped by an improved rushing offense, along with a simplified passing offense. Nobody stands out as a wide receiver, but Amara Darboh (25 catches, 280 yards, 2 touchdowns) leads the team and Jake Butt (22 catches, 274 yards, 1 touchdown) is a favorite target. Michigan tries to get the ball deep to Chesson, but they have been unsuccessful so far this year. The Wolverines are 41st in the country with 8 sacks allowed after giving up 3 to Northwestern last week. That has been the trade-off for Michigan, because Rudock has been eating the ball rather than making bad decisions in the throwing game. The Spartans are #3 in the nation with 21 sacks, including 5 from defensive end Shilique Calhoun, 3 from defensive tackle Malik McDowell, and 3 from Bullough. They can get after the quarterback. The Spartans allow 242 yards/game through the air, which is 89th in the nation, and they are 82nd in passer rating against them. They have allowed 285+ passing yards against a couple MAC teams, and teams are averaging 7.5 yards/attempt against them. Their top two corners could be missing, so the starters at those spots could very well have a total of 4 pass breakups and 1 pick this season. They will also be missing their best safety, R.J. Williamson, who had a pick-six against Michigan last season. I’m not extremely concerned about Michigan State’s pass coverage, but their pass rush could present Michigan some problems with their athletic front.
Advantage: Michigan State
Rush Defense vs. Michigan State Rush Offense
Michigan has been phenomenal against the run this season, allowing just under 66 yards/game, which is #3 in the country. Inside linebackers Joe Bolden and Desmond Morgan lead the team with 38 and 36 tackles, respectively, which seem like fairly low numbers for this point in the season. But Michigan does so well to get off the field and control the ball offensively, there aren’t a ton of tackles to be made. Defensive tackle Chris Wormley leads the team with 7 tackles for loss, but he has been relatively quiet in recent weeks after blowing up early in the year. Willie Henry has grown into his new position, nose tackle Ryan Glasgow has been pushing centers around regularly, and the safeties tackle well. Unfortunately, Michigan will be without linebacker James Ross III for the first half after he was ejected in last week’s second half for targeting; despite leading the team in tackling, Bolden struggles at times, especially in space. The Spartans average 173 yards/game on the ground, which is #67 nationally, and their 4.35 yards/carry is tied for #63. They might be without starting tailback Madre London, but L.J. Scott (418 yards, 5.97 yards/carry, 6 touchdowns) has done just fine this year, and even third-stringer Gerald Holmes averages 5.7 yards/carry with 3 touchdowns. This will be their toughest test of the year, and they might be doing it behind a short-handed offensive line. Both tackles are hobbled, and center Jack Allen might miss the game with an ankle injury. The Spartans are #88 in Adjusted Line Yards, so they weren’t great even before their injury issues. This is going to be a challenge for the Wolverines, and my biggest concern is for Michigan’s linebackers; if all of Michigan’s defensive linemen show up hyped for this one, the Wolverines should be in decent enough shape.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Defense vs. Michigan State Pass Offense
Michigan is #2 against the pass with 116 yards allowed/game, and the passer rating against them is #2 as well. Michigan has allowed just 2 touchdowns through the air and made 7 interceptions while allowing 3.9 yards/passing attempt. Those are ridiculous numbers. On top of that, Michigan has been missing starting cornerback Channing Stribling for the past two weeks, and he should return to face the Spartans. The other starting corner, Jourdan Lewis, is tied for #6 in the country with 10 passes defended, including 1 interception that he returned for a touchdown against Northwestern last week. Meanwhile, Michigan is #26 in sacks, led by defensive end Willie Henry and backup nose tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. Michigan State is #72 nationally with 224 yards/game through the air, but they are #24 in passer rating, as quarterback Connor Cook has 12 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. His top target is Aaron Burbridge (35 catches, 570 yards, 4 touchdowns), who is fast, athletic, and a playmaker. It should be interesting to watch Burbridge match up against Lewis. Otherwise, tight end Josiah Price can stretch the field a little bit, and while he has just 7 receptions this season, 4 of them have gone for touchdowns. The Spartans are still #8 in the country with just 4 sacks allowed so far this season, so they know how to protect Cook; they also use play action passing and quick decision making to keep him clean. While I am reluctant to doubt Michigan’s pass defense, I am also reluctant to doubt Cook. I think this whole aspect of the game might be the most intriguing, but I imagine the Spartans will try to exploit some weaknesses in coverage, including safeties Jabrill Peppers and particularly Delano Hill.
Advantage: Michigan State
Roster Notes
- Players recruited by Michigan include: WR DeAnthony Arnett, WR Aaron Burbridge, LB Ed Davis, OT Dennis Finley, CB Darian Hicks, LB Shane Jones, QB Brian Lewerke, WR Monty Madaris, DT Malik McDowell, S Montae Nicholson, LB Jon Reschke, DT Lawrence Thomas, LB Tyriq Thompson
- LB Tyriq Thompson is the son of former Michigan safety Clarence Thompson
- LS Taybor Pepper was once committed to Michigan as a walk-on snapper
Last Time They Played . . .
- Devin Gardner was 15/30 for 125 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions
- De’Veon Smith led the team with 11 carries for 39 yards and 1 touchdown
- Michigan State running back Jeremy Langford ran for 177 yards and 3 touchdowns
- Michigan State 35, Michigan 11
Predictions
- Michigan State picks on Delano Hill in coverage
- Michigan’s shutout streak ends at 3 games
- Jake Rudock loses 1 fumble and 1 interception
- The Jabrill Peppers Experiment is unveiled on offense
- Michigan 20, Michigan State 17
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You are much too hard on Jake Rudock and much too loving of Connor Cook. With our pass defense, the clear advantage is Michigan (#2 pass defense versus #72 pass offense (even with #24 passer rating)).
With State’s pathetic pass defense, the clear advantage is also Michigan. Rudock has played very well except for the Utah game, with his only recent pick being a ball that bounced out of Houma’s hands (where the ball was almost placed) and a number of what would otherwise be TD passes winding up with our receiver being tackled inside the 2 yard line. In addition, Rudock has shown himself to be a decent runner, taking a number of balls into the end zone.
You also overlook special teams, where Michigan also has a clear advantage.
Final score: Michigan 31, MSU 7.
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You might be right, but I think Mark Dantonio will have his team ready to go for this game. The defense will be champing at the bit to derail some of this talk about Michigan. I also think Michigan’s defense has taken advantage of playing against some mediocre passing teams and teams with weak offensive lines. When they faced a decent line and a decent QB in Utah’s Travis Wilson, they struggled a little bit. They’ve improved since then, but I think Cook is the best QB we will have faced this year. I don’t put a ton of stock in beating up on Clayton Thorson, Tanner Mangum, etc.
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I am with the Mathlete, who says at the end of his analysis: “The matchup simulator tool I like to use varies a little on whether Michigan’s offense or State’s defense will have the upper hand depending on whether you use play-by-play or drive-based stats, but the consensus is that Michigan’s defense is going to eat the lunch of State’s offense. Yes, even the chips.”
Cook may be better than anyone other than Travis Wilson, but Wilson did not do all that well against Michigan. He got 6.4 YPA, 210 yards, 0 TDs and 1 Int. The secondary has improved since the first game, with very few receivers getting open at all since then. Cook has also benefitted by having an unusually low percent of his passes that have been broken up resulting in an interception, not to mention the fact that he has not faced a defense anywhere close to Michigan’s defense, either in terms of coverage skills or pass rush.
I agree that Dantonio always has MSU ready for this game, but in a matchup of head coaches, I would take Harbaugh any day (and especially tomorrow, as Harbaugh grew up in Michigan and played against MSU and had his arm broken against MSU, so, in spite of being careful to not make any bulletin board statements, he really wants this game). And, in a matchup of total coaching staffs, Michigan’s staff also has a clear advantage.
GO BLUE!
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I think Michigan treats Cook similarly to the BYU QB by only rushing 4, while still getting good pressure due to MSU’s banged up OL (and UM’s amazing front DL). Thus, that will allow more DBs in coverage. And, with the nickel package, I don’t think this will hurt UM much with the tradeoff (again, UM’s amazing front DL).
I’m still about the quick slants, which seem to be open due to poor LB in pass coverage. But, past UM-opponent WRs have failed to capitalize due to the dropsies. If MSU is successful with gashes up the middle, then that could lead to other problems as UM must adjust by bringing more support to resolve that issue.
While I, too, think that MSU will be up for this game, I just think Harbaugh (!!!) has UM humming.
Should be a great matchup. And, a great gauge for the remaining schedule.
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Oh my God I forgot how ugly that game was last year. I don’t think I was even watching it by the time the “shovel pass” took place.
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Honestly not sure what to think.
On the one hand you have recent history being so favorable for MSU. It’s not hard to imagine their safeties and LBs crashing down to destroy our rungame as we’ve seen too many times before. It’s disconcerting to think of a similar defense (northwestern) clamping down on a similar offense (stanford). You know Dantonio’s going to bring out some Michigan-specific wrinkles. It’s also easy to imagine Cook doing damage with a few big plays to Burbridge and then working our LBs, Peppers, and our safeties in coverage with passes to Price and their RBs.
On the other hand you have all the advanced metrics in M’s favor, health in M’s favor, home field, and of course, Harbaugh. This is a veteran Michigan team and one that is playing very well right now.
I’m kind of with Thunder in being reluctant to buy all the way in to this team until they kill the MSU demon, even a hobbled version of it. But I also buy into the oddsmakers intelligence. The line moved way out to 8 points but has now bumped back down to 7 late in the week, so the pro gamblers don’t feel TOO strongly about M killing MSU…but they still feel pretty sure of a win.
One thing I do feel pretty sure about — we aren’t going to get blown out, and that’s a welcome change from last year.
I plan to be at the game. The last UM-MSU game I was at was the last time the good guys one, so let’s hope for a repeat.
Go Blue!
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I say it every year. Michigan, Michigan State is only about the hitting. The team that hits, wins. This has yet to not be the case in my many years watching this game, it won’t be different on Saturday.
What will be different on Saturday is that Sparty won’t be pounding on kids. We’re finally running juniors and seniors out there at nearly every position. James Ross weighs 240 lbs or so, not 217. Kyle Kali weighs about the same, but is running around with 12 or so % body fat as opposed to 25 or more. We’re big and nasty across our defensive line.
And not just juniors and seniors, but juniors and seniors with lots and lots of starts and minutes who have had about all of Sparty’s nonsense that they are going to put up with. Sparty is about to get hit in the mouth right back. I think Sparty turtles and then gets stupid ….. not necessarily in that order.
It is Sparty after all.
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Not sure which MSU team you’ve been watching this year. They’ve played absolutely nobody (Oregon stinks) and struggled doing so. They are injured, confused and just barely squeaking by. MSU is lined up like a Ukrainian road apple fergodsakes!!.
Our team finally is jelling with Upper Class-man leadership up and down the two deep roster. These guys are sick and tired of losing to Sparty. I almost feel bad (not) for the beating Sparty will receive tomorrow. We have the Coaching staff in place that far and away blows away Dantonio and his staff.
Enjoy the show folks, will be memorable !
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The only advantage that MSU has is on the passing game. If Michigan neutralizes that, then MSU is going to be in trouble. Maryland blitzes the heck out of Spartans and they couldn’t withstand that, even though Cook made some nice throws on the fly. While he made some good throws that their WRs caught even under duress, there were some that were wide open. I expect M’s secondary to be much better than Maryland. I am sure Dantonio has some wrinkles that we have not seen, but there is only so much one can do against M’s DL and secondary. LBs can be had, but I trust Morgan to be good. If M can withstand the first half, then Ross would be out there and we should be able to wear them out.
On the other hand, if M starts getting the push on runs, then this game is over, except for miracle passes from Cook.
This game can go down to the wire or a blowout. If it is a blowout, I expect M to do it and not MSU. If it is a close game, then both have chances. I see M to be a much better team and smoke MSU off the ball. I do not see our pass offense to be a disadvantage. Things have changed since UTAH. NU had a good secondary and we exploited them. MSU does not have a good secondary, but a good pass rush. We will exploit them also. So, I expect this to be a good game plan and make that an advantage also.
I am looking for a close game until the first half, with M pulling away by the end of first half.
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Well, my predictions weren’t bad except for the fact that Rudock didn’t turn the ball over. That final score was close…until the backwards punt attempt.
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