Preview: Michigan vs. Oregon State

Rush Offense vs. Oregon State Rush Defense
After one week of the 2015 season, Michigan is #112 in rushing offense (76 yards) and #111 in yards per attempt (2.62). It was not a successful week of running the ball against Utah’s defense. Left guard Ben Braden struggled mightily with the Utes’ defensive tackles, and left tackle Mason Cole also had a lot of issues; the right side of the line was better, but Michigan’s longest run was 7 yards. Starter De’Veon Smith (2.76 yards/carry) got 17 carries while it appears Ty Isaac (3.0 yards/carry) is the second-stringer. The wild card is Drake Johnson, who played well at the end of 2014, tore his ACL, and should be returning sometime in the near future. Oregon State played Weber State and allowed just 58 yards on the ground on 18 carries (3.2 yards/carry), but Weber State is an FCS program; last year Oregon State finished #53 in rushing defense. The Beavers run a 3-4 defense that can be tough to handle if you have a dominant nose tackle and/or a weak center, but senior nose tackle Kyle Peko (6’1″, 305 lbs.) is a junior college transfer playing his second game at Oregon State and Michigan center Graham Glasgow is arguably Michigan’s best lineman. Redshirt junior inside linebacker Rommel Mageo is almost halfway to last year’s tackle total (23) with 11 stops in the first game. All of the Beavers’ All-Pac 12 performers graduated, so proven playmakers are hard to come by, but defensive end Lavonte Barnett is the closest thing (18 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks last season). I think Michigan has a chance to blow some holes open, but I won’t trust the line until they put together a complete game.
Advantage: Oregon State

Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.

Pass Offense vs. Oregon State Pass Defense
Iowa transfer quarterback Jake Rudock went 27/43 for 279 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his first game as a Wolverine. He seemed to be largely accurate except for a couple deep balls he overthrew. Two of his interceptions were accurate throws but poor decisions and/or routes, while the third pick was a ball that sailed on him. The stars of the show were tight end Jake Butt (8 catches, 93 yards, 1 touchdown) and wide receiver Amara Darboh (8 catches, 101 yards, 1 touchdown), but the unsung heroes might be the offensive linemen, who did not allow a single sack to last year’s NCAA-leading crew in that department. Rudock might not be able to put the team on his back, but he should be able to manage a team that can muster more than 76 yards on the ground. Oregon State allowed 120 yards through the air on 3.3 yards/attempt and picked off Weber State once. They also managed 3 sacks. Last year this was a team that was #94 in passing yards allowed (248.1) but #44 in yards/attempt (6.8); however, they lost all 11 of their interceptions to graduation, and their top returning defensive back is cornerback Larry Scott (43 tackles, 11 pass breakups last season). The Wolverines should be able to hold up well in this matchup.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Oregon State Rush Offense
Michigan faced a supposed Heisman candidate in running back Devontae Booker last week, but they held him to 69 yards (on 22 carries). Overall, Michigan allowed 3.49 yards/carry and 129 yards total, which was #60 nationally after week one. A fair amount of damage was done by quarterback Travis Wilson, who scrambled well and scored on a read option. Otherwise, Michigan tackled well and won a lot of battles up front with their interior linemen. The linebackers are experienced, but they can struggle in space. Inside linebackers Joe Bolden (13 tackles) and Desmond Morgan (10 tackles) led the team in stops, and defensive tackle Chris Wormley made 3 tackles for loss. The Beavers have just one senior on the offensive line, but the other guys are still experienced and they are all between 298 and 316 lbs. The best player is redshirt junior right guard Isaac Seumalo (6’5″, 298 lbs.). Oregon State’s most dangerous runner is freshman quarterback Seth Collins, a willowy 6’3″, 195 lb. spread quarterback. Last week he carried the ball 17 times for 152 yards. The running backs are decent but nothing special, with fifth year senior Storm Barrs-Woods (15 carries, 63 yards) leading the way. In the shotgun spread look, Michigan will see fly sweeps, power read options, and zone read options. I think the Wolverines’ defensive line will be able to handle things up front, and while the inside ‘backers can get exploited in space, defensive backs like Jabrill Peppers should be able to help out with some of those runs to the edge.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. Oregon State Pass Offense
Michigan allowed 208 passing yards last week (#64 nationally), and a lot of those yards came in the middle of the field when Utah took advantage of mediocre coverage from the linebackers. The Utes were lacking big-play receivers, but Michigan kept everything in front of them and tackled pretty well. The Wolverines only notched one sack, but they put a decent amount of pressure on 6’7″, 233 lb. quarterback Travis Wilson, who was able to escape the pocket with his athleticism and size. Collins is quicker, but he’s less experienced and not quite as difficult to bring down if the Wolverines can get a hand on him. Oregon State possesses a dangerous, big redshirt sophomore receiver in Jordan Villamin (6’5″, 235 lbs.), who averaged 16.5 yards/catch last year and grabbed 6 touchdowns. Junior Victor Bolden (5’9″, 174 lbs.) is a slot/outside guy who catches a lot of passes, although many of them are the long handoff types to keep the team on schedule. Villamin presents a problem because Michigan’s best corner, Jourdan Lewis, is small and the other corners are less experienced and not proven to be playmakers. The Wolverines need improved play from the Buck linebacker position and others to keep Collins hemmed in, or else he could hurt them once he gets to the second or third level.
Advantage: Michigan

Roster Notes

• Oregon State has a freshman defensive tackle named Thor Katoa. He is 6’2″, 247 lbs.
• There are no players on their roster from Michigan
• Head coach Gary Andersen spent the 2013-2014 seasons in the Big Ten as Wisconsin’s head coach, although Michigan did not play Wisconsin during that time. Former Badgers offensive lineman Josh Oglesby is a quality control coach for the Beavers.

Last Time They Played . . .

• Michigan is 4-0 all-time against Oregon State with victories in 1959, 1965, 1966, and 1986
• In 1986, the Wolverines won by a score of 31-12
• Jim Harbaugh went 14/18 for 171 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception; he ran 7 times for 21 yards and 1 touchdown
• Jamie Morris ran 20 times for 140 yards
• Andy Moeller led Michigan with 12 tackles
• Erik Campbell had 3 tackles and 1 interception

Predictions

• Running back De’Veon Smith goes over 100 yards rushing
• Collins gets confused into throwing two interceptions but moves the chains with his legs
• Jake Rudock calms down to throw 2 touchdowns and 0 picks
• Michigan 27, Oregon State 10

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