Shea Patterson (#20, image via UPI)
WHO IS SHEA PATTERSON?
For those of you hardcore followers of Michigan (and Michigan recruiting), you may have heard in recent weeks some rumblings about Shea Patterson. Patterson is a sophomore quarterback for Ole Miss, but Ole Miss’s recent sanctions from the NCAA – a bowl ban through the 2018 season and some scholarship reductions – may open a door for him to transfer. Over the past two seasons, he completed 238/392 passes (60.7%) for 3,139 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions as a part-time starter. His 2017 season was shortened by a torn knee ligament, but he should be ready to play in 2018.
Patterson has family in the Toledo area and his grandfather, George Patterson, played for the Detroit Pistons. He was offered by Michigan as a part of the 2016 recruiting class, but he was committed to Arizona at one point and eventually flipped to Ole Miss. He was a 5-star, the #1 pro-style quarterback, and #4 overall in his recruiting class. He attended high school in Louisiana before spending his senior year at IMG Academy in Bradenton, FL. For a kid just finishing his sophomore season, he has been all over the map in the last few years with his living situation and allegiances – Texas, Arizona, Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi.
Hit the jump for further thoughts on Patterson.
WHAT’S PATTERSON’S SITUATION?
Patterson is not eligible to play immediately for another school because the bowl ban does not span the remainder of his eligibility, but some players at Ole Miss are retaining lawyers to attempt to escape Oxford and get immediate eligibility. According to Sam Webb, Michigan and other schools are trying to figure out if there are any loopholes or exceptions to get Patterson on campus. (Full disclosure: Rivals was the first to report Patterson’s interest in Michigan, an idea that was pooh-poohed by Webb until the last 24 hours.)
WHAT’S MICHIGAN’S SITUATION?
Michigan has no established starter going into 2018. Redshirt junior Wilton Speight and redshirt sophomore Alex Malzone are both taking graduate transfers to play elsewhere, and John O’Korn is graduating. That leaves 2017’s best quarterback (redshirt freshman Brandon Peters), a true freshman with zero college experience (Dylan McCaffrey), and incoming freshmen Joe Milton and Kevin Doyle as the only scholarship quarterbacks for 2018. It’s a talented but very inexperienced group. Peters threw 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in limited time during the 2017 regular season, but he’ll be the only returning player who has attempted a pass.
WOULD PATTERSON FIT AT MICHIGAN?
I don’t think there’s any question that Patterson could play at Michigan. He’s a pro-style guy who has proven to be a competent quarterback at a Power 5 program. He can also run a little bit – he averaged 4.1 yards/carry this season. Realistically, he could probably come in and be the favorite to start for the Wolverines in 2018. The bigger question is whether he would chase away any of Michigan’s other talent. Despite Jim Harbaugh’s continued insistence that every position is an open competition, some of the younger guys may get frustrated that Harbaugh continually brings in older and/or more experienced guys (Jake Rudock in 2015, John O’Korn for 2016-2017, and potentially Patterson in 2018-2019). Would it be worth potentially chasing away your next phase of quarterbacks just to rent a guy for one or two seasons? Personally, I think Michigan should take Patterson if they can get him, but I believe the team would lose at least one quarterback if that were to happen.
Here’s what I wrote about Patterson in February of 2015, when I ranked him #2 in my scouting of quarterbacks of 2016 (LINK):
2. Shea Patterson – QB – Shreveport (LA) Calvary Baptist: Patterson is a 6’2″, 195 lb. prospect who’s a 247 Composite 5-star, the #3 pro-style quarterback, and #18 overall. He has offers from Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Clemson, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Texas, Texas A&M, and USC, among others. As a junior in 2014, he completed 129/199 passes for 2,428 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Right off the bat, I get a Johnny Manziel type of vibe from Patterson when watching his film. He has somewhat of a nondescript frame, and neither his speed or his arm strength jump off the screen. However, he is someone who seems to be good at just about everything. The most impressive thing about him is his pocket awareness, ability to move within the pocket, and ability to find throwing lanes. He also shows nice touch on some deep throws. He can be careless with the football, carrying it one-handed when scrambling and dropping it to waist level, and those habits will eventually lead to fumbles if not corrected. Manziel did the same thing and got himself a Heisman trophy, so it’s not a death knell for a quarterback’s career. Patterson is not the quickest decision maker of this group, but he does seem to have a good grasp of what the defense is doing and finds his receiver fairly quickly. Mechanically, Patterson does a good job with his footwork getting himself ready to throw, and other than dropping his throwing hand when scrambling, he is pretty polished. Patterson runs a shotgun passing spread offense that does not see him dropping back from under center, which may be a significant adjustment if he goes into a pro-style offense in college.
For what it’s worth, Jacob Eason was ranked #1 in my evaluations, and there have also been rumblings that Eason might be looking at coming to Michigan. Those rumors aren’t quite as prevalent, however.
Here’s a full game of Patterson playing QB earlier this season:
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You’ve covered the bases on him in this write up. He reminds me of a Cam Newton type without the legal issues (that we know about?). Will always go where there’s ‘greener’ pastures………..
Don’t care how good the young man is – let him go back to Loseriana; Michigan already has better in Peters & Caff – both quality young men.
Intjohn
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This is a tough one. Originally, I wanted to let Peters and McCaffrey battle it out. I typically like to build within and have faith in your own players. I still think this is probably the right direction. However, Shea COULD be a playmaker that we haven’t seen in years on offense and I don’t think you can NOT take him if he has mutual interest and he’s a clean kid. I’d hate to see Peters or McCaffrey go, I really would. But, if Shea sets the tone for 1-2 years with solid QB play we’ll just get the next good recruit. Bottom line is UM needs a GREAT QB next year. I’d like it to be Peters or McCaffrey but its hard to argue that Shea is better than both right now.
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We’ve had a banged up QB since 2007, and I imagine that will continue; do we want a TrFr QB to be so high on the depth?
We took Rudock & JOK, who didn’t have near the profile of Patterson
Patterson’s moving around may be a red flag, and his joining may lead to the loss of a QB, but he’s probably better than what we have available. I say roll the dice and take him (or Eason)
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On another note, how can we be sure you’re getting a cut for our Amazon purchases? I’ve hidden the app on my phone & tablet to prevent me from buying outside of TTB, but want to make sure it’s been worth it. Two straight Christmas seasons, plus regular purchases throughout the year should add up (I’m an introvert who avoids retail at all costs!)
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That’s awesome that you’ve done that. Thanks. There’s no way for you to tell on your end, really, but I can check. If you want to tell me an item or two you bought, I can see if those were purchased and credited to TTB.
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No sweat, we all appreciate the site!
I just bought a Samsung RoboVacuum, and yesterday it was a 30lb bag of dogfood. Later today l’ll buy my son’s car stereo & speakers (no idea how long it’ll take to get to you). There’s been much more, but that’s just this weekend
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I don’t see any of those items currently, but sometimes it takes a day or two. The reports are usually generated around 9:00 a.m. each day, so I can check again tomorrow.
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The Samsung robot vacuum popped up, and so did some speakers. I didn’t see dog food or a car stereo yet, for whatever reason.
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Weird. I even find the item I want, then come back here to paste the exact description in your search box (minimize clicks away from the site)
Gets annoying when I’m shopping for multiple items!
Anyway, Merry Christmas & GO BLUE
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I think in this particular instance, we’re better off with what we got.
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Don’t see any downside. He clearly has a better track record than any quarterback on the roster. It is mostly likely for only one year (assume immediate transfer). Sleight might have beaten out Peters and McCaffrey next year so they are really not in that much more of a different situation. I don’t think he would have beaten out peters, but who knows. McCaffrey it really does not impact too much. Milton is red shirting next year so he does not suffer. M gets a potential star and gives up nothing? I trust Harbaugh to handle the chemistry issues. If Patterson gives us the best chance to beat OSU and MSU next year. Sign me up please. Very limited downside with great upside.
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What this tells me is that four years in, Harbaugh still has no confidence in his own QBs, or in his offensive line’s ability to protect them, or both. Not good. He’s been touted as the greatest quarterback guru on the planet…why is he still looking to QBs that other people have recruited and developed for help?
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Unusual circumstances here though. I don’t think JH would have much interest in your run of the mill grad xfer this off season, unless the guy was cool with backing up. But Patterson is a really good player. Question is whether JH sees this guy as UM’s future version of Russell Wilson, and whether he’d be willing to trade Peters for Patterson. My guess is the answer is yes.
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I actually had Russel Wilson in the back of my mind also Smurf. Sure worked out for Wisconsin.
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Which makes my point. It’s a bad situation if Harbaugh has so little confidence in a guy who was a highly rated recruit, will be a junior next year, and that he has coached his whole time here that he feels the need to bring in someone from outside to hedge his bets.
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I think the head coach has to be both cautious and shrewd as applicable to succeed at the highest level.
JH, IMHO should have used Peters sooner, and I think it was a mistake on his part not to. And yes, when I said Peters has promise is forward thinking.
Roster seniority status nomenclature as to whether we call someone a redshirt soph or a junior I think has been complicated by “you are only guaranteed four years” versus seeing five years as a red shirt (5th year) senior.
Many fans both knowledgeable and those less so, but with the propensity to bitch (not a shot at you WCB), would be right to question why our head coach didn’t take advantage of a quality transfer if available, if we are hit again by the injury bug or our prospects just didn’t perform quite well enough.
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Mostly WCB it tells me that we got spanked by injuries at the most important position last year.
We lost 3 scholarship QBs from the roster however ineffective they may have been, and have added (probably) two as recruits that would likely redshirt. While I honestly think Peters and McCaff have promise, if he can bring in someone that may help why not?
I think guys like Patterson or Eason with eligibility that don’t/can’t go pro yet will continue to offer their wares to enhance their marketability. It is the new reality.
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Have to take him, and he just started to follow several M players on twitter. I am sure BP and DC are gonna be good players, but I am sure what Shea is thinking is that he’ll have one stellar year and move on to the NFL. That’s completely fine with me.
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Apparently Harbaugh is just as afraid of having to go deep into the QB depth chart again next year, because he has no confidence in his O-line, even in his 4th year here. As I said, bad situation. And why does Peters only have “promise” in his junior year, after spending his whole time at Michigan under the tutelage of the greatest developer of quarterbacks in college football (or so they say at MgoBlog, and they are, of course, never wrong about such things). When is he actually going to be a high quality player? When can we expect Harbaugh to take less than 4 years to turn one of his own QBs into a star?
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You can tell a pessimist from an optimist based on how they phrase things like this. You are definitely a glass-half-empty guy, because very few people look at a current redshirt freshman and call him a “junior.”
As I said in a previous post, Peters’s passer rating projected over a whole season would have made him the #3 quarterback in the Big Ten…with poor pass protection, an iffy running game, relatively few reps as the #3 QB, and very few proven receiving targets.
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GKBlue said he thought Peters had “promise”. Did he mean this year? Of course not. He meant next year, when Peters WILL be a junior.
And you’re the one who warns about small sample size. No one believes that Peters would have gone through a whole season with no INTs. And who was his competition in the Big Ten, anyway?
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WCB. Lighten up. I am not a harbaugh sloppy, but he he made great progress. The QB thing is frustrating but he did not count on Speight getting “broken”. The topic is Patterson. Not if harbaugh sucks. Would you take Patterson. We know you think harbaugh sucks.
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My point was not whether Patterson would help next year or whether we should take him. Maybe so. It’s about why we should even be having this discussion for Harbaugh’s 4th year and Peter’s 3rd.
And if you want to know what I think about Harbaugh, ask me, instead of making shit up that you think makes you look superior. You don’t “know” jack.
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Should we take him?
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WCB is correct. Peters will be a Junior in 2018. This is neither optimistic nor pessimistic. It is a fact that if Peters returns it will be his 3rd year on campus in Ann Arbor.
Peters’ peers from the 2016 QB class include:
Shane Buechele (4,300 yards, 7.3 ypa)
Shea Patterson (3,100 yards, 8.0 ypa)
Justin Herbert (3,700 yards, 8.7 ypa)
Josh Jackson (2,700 yards, 7.7 ypa)
Jalen Hurts (4,700 yards, 7.9 ypa)
Each of the above have missed significant time to injuries or red-shirting, other than Hurts.
To be fair to Peters, none of those guys had to play behind O’Korn, Speight, and Morris.
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Welcome back Lank!
Agree with that last part: Peters’ was behind QB who won 10 games last season, while the 4ofthe5 others were not (whether you like speight or not is a separate matter)
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Peters (a sophomore) didn’t beat out Speight (a senior). It does matter how good Speight is.
Just like it mattered how good Morris was when Speight beat him out (as a sophomore and junior) and how good O’Korn was.
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This is about Seduction, Michigan.
Every great looking woman that entices her wares (for $ profit) will always look EVERYwear for the next John (or Jim/Gym) haha
Is Michigan realy this hard up? A beautiful thing that’s good on ‘the Field’ that will never turn into a positive long term relationship??
go then the way, Michigan, of OSU(Tressel & Woody); The SEC ( in general); Calhoun at UCONN; Pititno at Louisville; Boheim at Syralose; Knight at IN; JoPa at PSU…………. You kant beat them so go fuking join them!!!!!
Become a loser!!!!!!!!!!!
I have more depth & substance to my life – some thing’s are worth dying for rather than to prostitute oneself. Michigan can do better – already has better in Caff & Peters! (Depth & Substance! As football players & as Human Beings at Michigan – as I (in my 60’s; haha) listen to Marilyn Manson’s “Dope Show”)
INTJohn
As I Live It…………………INTJohn
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I’ll might get trolled for this, but…..I don’t want him. I think Peters is BETTER. Watched a bunch of his highlights which i understand is probably not the most empirical way to go about things, but alot of these spectacular plays (of which there are many) comes when the play is broken down and he’s scrambling. With that being said, I think Shea would’ve been better for us THIS YEAR due to our OL woes, but not moving forward. Peters has a better arm and this will be his 3rd year under Harbaugh. He should be the meritocracy winner next year…
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If Peters wins out, all the better! Our backup (Shea) would be proven. 3rd string would be a promising young Mac
All the more reason to take him, IMO
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Fair enough about not wanting him. I think there is definitely an argument to be made either way. It’s not like Patterson is Deshaun Watson or Andrew Luck, a totally proven superstar.
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Then he should beat him out. I like Peters and I think he can beat him out. Let’s have a legit competition. I do like Patterson because he does seem to have moxie.
Why some don’t want him confuses me because it seems like they don’t want to ruffle feathers? These guys had to assume if Speight was productive then they would still be backing him up.
Take him. This is not O’Korn. He was starting for an SEC school and a highly rated recruit. You can see his talent. No guarantees but why not.
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Here is why I would principally want Patterson. He brings something unique to the position that he doesn’t get with Peters. Maybe McCaffrey offers the same thing but all 3 of these guys are young.
Figure out who can get the job done and if you lose one of them then so be it. I am very encouraged by Peters but he has yet to completely proven he can win big. UM still has an unknown at qb.
Welcome back LK. I had a question for you LK. It seems like WS decided to leave because he really wanted the starting job. Understandable. I did want him on the team. He would have been a great backup. My question to you is what does this say about WS that he felt he couldn’t fend off Peters or that he wanted to be guaranteed a spot?
Just wanted your thoughts. Sounds to me like he wants to play and get drafted but he left to go down a notch. Does this sound like a big time NFL prospect?
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My opinion is that Speight would have been the best QB on the UM roster in 2018 and that he will probably do quite well wherever he lands.
Remember that Speight was #1, OKorn #2, Peters #3. The Michigan fanbase seems to theorize that Speight is Wally Pipp. It’s possible that Peters is that good. It’s possible he isn’t.*
I am inclined to agree with those who think that Harbaugh may have gotten Peters vs O’Korn wrong.** The hypothesis there is that O’Korn was better in practice but faltered in games. This is based on comments made by Sam Webb about how good JOK looke and on the assumption that Harbaugh knows what he is doing with QBs in general. In other words, O’Korn is anomaly in the degree to which he struggled in games vs practice performance.
O’Korn may also factor into why Speight is transferring – the degree to which he saw himself as superior to O’Korn but was never held up by Harbaugh as the clear starter. Remember Speight was pulled against UF and Harbaugh said at the time that the plan was always to get O’Korn in.
On top of the coach, when O’Korn came in for Speight against Purdue the fan base was not exactly bemoaning the lost season that was to come at the time. That built on the preseason calls for Peters even before the season started. So that’s the coach AND fanbase not exactly having full respect for a guy who probably thinks that, aside from an awful game against Iowa, he took Michigan to the doorstep of playoff berth despite a major shoulder injury.
The reasons Speight gave in public is consistent with the above. Many want to read between the lines and see this is as acquiescing to Peters. I don’t agree. Sam Webb doesn’t agree. Speight has expressly denounced this and demonstrated with his past actions that he doesn’t fear a challenge or competition (see HBO show segment on Michigan).
So – what is it?
I suspect Speight feared he might not get a fair chance. Frankly he is probably right, in that anything near 50-50 with a younger player would end against him. In other words, he doesn’t just have to be better he has to be MUCH better. That is a disadvantage. He probably wonders if he hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.
I do think Speight looked at what Shane Morris did at CMU (outperforming the 3-headed UM QB by a good deal) and thought to himself “I’m 3 times the QB that guy is.” Where he ends up is TBD, but the NFL does not much care what conference you play in.
I do think he looked at the UM OL which, even after a season’s worth of significant improvement, still couldn’t protect Peters from getting concussed or O’Korn from multiple sacks against OSU. That OL will return with even less experience than it had last year and has no clear answer at either OT position for 2018. You have to have a lot of faith to see an offense in Ann Arbor that would showcase your potential to the NFL.
So you weigh all the above against being a college football free agent who can, to some degree, hand pick an ideal situation. Speight will be wanted. He will be recruited aggressively. He will be (likely) received as a savior (a la Rudock). Contrast that attitude with the situation in AA where every mistake will be scrutinized by a fanbase howling for the backup. He can also find an offense with a capable OL and a system that didn’t just finish the year with a pass game ranked somewhere in the 80s nationally. He can glean new lessons from new coaches. He can find good weather. etc.
In short – Speight made an entirely logical decision even if he thinks he’s significantly better than Peters. Speight has seen the nasty side of the UM fanbase (towards O’Korn, towards O’Neill, and even towards him). He has also seen the relative success for guys like Rudock and Morris. They would have sat the bench had they stuck around for 5th years, deservedly (in Morris’ case) or not (in Rudock’s case). I think if you really put yourself in Speight’s shoes and take away the loyalty to Michigan component it’s rather hard to make the case that staying is the wise choice, even if Brandon Peters wasn’t there.
My opinion is that it’s a huge blow to Michigan’s prospects in 2018 that WS chose to transfer. I think Patterson, if immediately eligible, could offset it and maybe be an upgrade as well. So maybe it works out for everyone in the end.
If Patterson is to sit out a year, I don’t really see the point.
*Much more to this discussion.
** Much more to this discussion too.
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*Is Peters that good?
Working against this argument are several points:
1. The extremely conservative playcalling with Peters. Limited attempts overall and especially downfield. No risks were taken.
2. Inability to beat out Speight, who struggled badly to start the year.
3. Reluctance to put him in, even after Speight was hurt and O’Korn proved inept.
4. Production compared to peers in 2016 QB class. (listed above)
5. Performance (the good) – Some people will point to stats, which are mediocre in the first place (as the 2016 peer performance indicates) but they also ignore the context of Michigan establishing a consistently dominant run game against Rutgers, Maryland, and Minnesota (something that never happened in previous games for either O’Korn or Speight). In other words, Peters job was very very easy in 3 of 4 games. He did fine there save a few mistakes (e.g., near INT and a couple of very bad underthrows). But fine against weak competition is not at all a case for greatness coming in your junior year.
6. Performance (bad). Against Wisconsin he had a QBR of 9 (i.e., a bottom 10 percent performance). Granted, Wisconsin is an excellent D but Speight was better against them in 2016 and OSU put up 450 yards on them. To be fair to Peters (a sophomore) Speight was a junior at the time and that’s on the road vs at home.
——————————————
I would agree with anyone who thinks that Peters ceiling is higher than Speight. Comparing sophomore year to sophomore year – Peters looks way better. Peters has more arm strength and looks more natural as a passer. I would guess that as a 5th year player he will be better than Speight will be as a 5th year player. But who cares?
A 5th year Speight vs a 3rd year Peters is a different question. At this point, event hat one is moot.
On to Peters vs McCaffrey – if I had to guess McCaffrey would be at least 50-50 to win that one. That’s how little Peters has done to stand out IMO.
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** O’Korn vs Peters
It’s possible Harbaugh played this perfectly. Clearly they were extremely careful to give Peters much responsibility and the near INT and fumble showed why. You throw a QB like that out to the wolves against MSU, PSU, and you likely get something even worse than the 1 TD game against Wisconsin.
The way Harbaugh played it, he gave Peters a chance. He didn’t step up against Wisconsin, but he also didn’t cost Michigan the game, which was all that was being asked at that point.
As for OSU, I don’t know in what world Mgoblog lives in where he puts that game on O’Korn when the D gives up 31 points. Michigan barely scored that many against cupcakes. 5+ scoring drives against the OSU D with Peters back there is rather obsurd. And then on top of that to lecture fans about their unreasonable treatment of the QB right after you just said ITS ALL HIS FAULT WE LOST TO OSU. What a joke.
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Predictions:
Speight ends up at a power 5.
Speight throws for more yards and TDs than Peters in 2018.
I will hold off on predicting anything about QB efficiency stats until we know where Speight lands.
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Back to hibernate for a while. Go Blue!
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LK – “In short – Speight made an entirely logical decision ”
worked for me.
Don’t stay away.
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No kidding! I almost nodded off for a sec ?
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I am telling you that LK should offer his services to WS to represent him as his agent. I think LK might even work for free. That was one hell of a representation. Nice job.
I would counter that maybe he has some doubt at performing at this level and has lost some confidence and wants to get his ‘mojo’ back in a less pressured environment and be guaranteed a starting job.
Bottom line LK. Speight isn’t as good as you think he is and not as bad as some want to make him out to be. He should be a good qb in a lesser conference and if surrounded by the right pieces should do okay. He will not last too long in the NFL even if he gets drafted unless he suddenly becomes a more accurate passer.
I will not be representing WS. I’ll have you a bet he doesn’t get drafted before the 5th round.
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