Maize ‘n’ Brew: 2011 Recruiting Grades – Offense

Tag: 2011 Recruiting


11Feb 2011
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Statistical Analysis of 2011 Recruiting: By State

Last year I became curious about how successful Michigan was at recruiting each state.  That curiosity has spilled over to the 2011 class, and the chart above shows the percentages of successfully recruited players from each state.  This is all based upon offers recorded on the 2011 Offer Board located at the top of the page.  I can’t promise that it’s 100% accurate, because sometimes reporting of offers is a little bit iffy.  But it’s the best I could do.

It should also be pointed out that Brady Hoke’s late hiring as Michigan’s coach somewhat skews the numbers.  Players who decommitted (Jake Fisher from Michigan; Matt Goudis from California; Kevin Sousa and Dallas Crawford from Florida) would have changed the numbers slightly.

As might be expected, Michigan was the most successfully recruited state.  Nearly 50% of in-state offers were accepted; the decommitment of Fisher was the only thing standing in the way.

Texas was a bit of a surprise.  Michigan pulled in three commitments from Texas – a heavily talented state – while only giving out eleven offers.  But it’s a bit curious that Michigan’s coaches didn’t pursue more players in the state.  Running backs coach Fred Jackson has some contacts in Texas, and even though several Rich Rodriguez assistants had connections in Florida (where Michigan tossed out 43 offers), the success rate in Florida over the past couple years has been abysmal.  Michigan went 3-for-46 (7%) in Florida last year, and that number looks like an unbridled success when compared to the 1-for-43 showing this year (2%).

After crunching the numbers for two consecutive seasons, it seems that Michigan’s coaches probably wasted quite a bit of time recruiting the Sunshine State.  Maybe it was a risk-reward thing with Rodriguez (after all, Denard Robinson is from Florida), but a batting average of .020 is horrible, no matter how you slice it.  When you hand out 190 offers, you probably spend quite a bit of time talking to kids or the coaches of kids who have very little chance of attending your university.  Perhaps Rich Rodriguez and Co. would have benefitted from making more intimate connections with fewer kids rather than, as one commenter said, “carpet bombing” the country with offers.

Ohio was once again recruited with some success (37% in 2010; 24% in 2011), and Hoke will surely continue to work hard in the state.  Even though Rodriguez got a large number of 2010 recruits from Ohio, he didn’t seem to hit the state very hard in his last season.  The percentage of accepted offers jumped significantly once Hoke was hired.  He reeled in four recruits in approximately three weeks on the job, including the likes of Tamani Carter, Antonio Poole, Keith Heitzman, and Frank Clark.  Prior to his arrival, Rodriguez had accepted only three commitments from Ohioans – Greg Brown, Jack Miller, and Chris Rock.

Altogether, Michigan offered players from 27 different states.  The Wolverines struck out in twenty of them, including:

Pennsylvania: 12
Louisiana, New Jersey: 8
Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina: 6
North Carolina, Virginia: 5
District of Columbia: 2
Arkansas, Colorado, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin: 1

7Feb 2011
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2011 Recruiting Awards

Offensive guard Chris Bryant

This is something I do every year, and it’s a fun exercise for me:
2009 Recruiting Awards
2010 Recruiting Awards

Best overall recruit:  OG Chris Bryant
Bryant has the size, strength, footwork, and athleticism to be a great offensive lineman at Michigan.  As long as he can get rid of some of his bad weight and stay well conditioned throughout his career, I think he’ll be an All-Big Ten player by the end of his career.

Best offensive recruit: Bryant
See above.

Best defensive recruit: CB Blake Countess
Countess isn’t the biggest or fastest kid out there, but he’s got a good quality for a cornerback – sticky.  Receivers just don’t seem to get away from him.  He probably needs to bulk up before playing (we all saw what happened to Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott last year), but he could be a slot corner early in his career before taking over on the outside after a year or two.

Recruit most likely to make an early impact: K Matt Wile
If former walk-on Seth Broekhuizen or redshirt sophomore Brendan Gibbons steps up his game, then Wile might not be needed as a freshman.  But those first two combined for 4-for-14 on field goals last season.  It’s also entirely possible that Wile will redshirt as a freshman, but Michigan returns the vast majority of its two-deep from last season, so a lot of these 2011 recruits will probably be redshirted.  Wile seems like the best candidate.

Fastest recruit: CB/S Raymon Taylor
Taylor reminds me of departing cornerback James Rogers in many ways.  While Taylor is probably more physical, he has good straight-line speed and a smooth stride. 

Strongest recruit: Bryant
Bryant reports a bench press of 395 pounds and a squat of 420.  Even if he couldn’t bench press Charlie Weis, all Bryant had to do with most high schoolers was get a hand on them and they fell to the ground, begging for mercy.

Best under-the-radar recruit: LB Desmond Morgan
Michigan has a good history with linebackers from western Michigan, and I like the fact that Morgan was a bulldozing quarterback in high school.  Quarterbacks just seem to understand the game better.  I think there will be a good battle for the middle linebacker job between Morgan and classmate Kellen Jones once redshirt junior Kenny Demens graduates.

Most overrated recruit: LB Frank Clark
The problem with this “award” is that nobody’s rated very highly.  And while my choice if Rich Rodriguez were here would be Justice Hayes, I actually think Hayes will fit better in Hoke’s system than that of Rodriguez.  I don’t think Hayes is a threat to start anytime soon, but he could be a very good change-of-pace back.  So I’m going to go with Clark, who is only a 3-star.  But I haven’t seen anything from Clark that shows me he’s going to be a successful college football player, especially as a linebacker.  If he were rated as a 2-star recruit, I probably wouldn’t bat an eyelash.  He has some potential with his size and speed, but he needs a lot of coaching.

Personal favorite recruit: LB Antonio Poole
This kid looks like the future at weakside linebacker.  He can run, he can hit, and best of all, he plays downhill.  He might have to bide his time for a couple years, but he might be the second coming of Larry Foote.

6Feb 2011
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Statistical Analysis of 2011 Recruiting: By Team

Desmond Howard was one of many Michigan greats who grew up in Ohio

There’s no real breaking news to report here.  It just gives you an idea who Michigan’s biggest foes are in the recruiting world.  As you can see below, Ohio State is Enemy #1.  (For comparison’s sake, not one of Michigan’s commits this year had an offer from the Buckeyes, as far as I know.)  After that it falls off to Auburn, then Florida State, then a tie between Tennessee and Wisconsin, and then everyone else.

Below is a list of each school that pulled in at least one Michigan offeree.  For particular players, check the 2011 Offer Board:

Ohio State: 12

Auburn: 8

Florida State: 7

Tennessee, Wisconsin: 6

Alabama, Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pitt, Rutgers, South Carolina, USC: 5

Florida, LSU, North Carolina, Virgina, Virginia Tech: 4

Boston College, Clemson, Michigan State, Nebraska, Oregon, Texas, Texas Tech, UCLA: 3
Cal, Iowa, Mississippi, Stanford, Wake Forest: 2

Arizona State, Arkansas, Central Florida, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Kent State, Kentucky, NC State, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Purdue, SMU, Syracuse, TCU, Texas A&M, Troy, Tulane, Utah, Vanderbilt, West Virginia: 1
_________________________________________________________

Brady Hoke has stated that he wants to get back to recruiting the midwest, and that means beating Ohio State for recruits.  You can see that Wisconsin’s recent success has made them a formidable opponent in recruiting.  And with as much as Rodriguez recruited the state of Pennsylvania, they lost out on 10 total recruits to the big state schools (PSU, Pitt).

Michigan State, as you can see, did not win many recruiting battles with Michigan.  Brennen Beyer, Frank Clark, Justice Hayes, and Jack Miller were all kids with MSU offers who chose the Wolverines.  And there has been some disagreement about whether MSU running back Onaje Miller was actually offered by Michigan, although I include him because his Rivals profile says so.  Overall, I would say Michigan came out the winner against their in-state rivals.

The Wolverines still have an uphill battle to win recruits away from Ohio State, and that’s tough to do because Ohio typically has more talent than Michigan.  But if and when Michigan starts winning some of those battles on the field, I expect more and more recruits from the Toledo area (which is geographically closer to Ann Arbor than Columbus) to take interest in playing for the Wolverines.

5Feb 2011
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Statistical Analysis of 2011 Recruiting: By Conference

If you tally the offers above, Michigan handed out 189 offers to high school recruits for the Class of 2011.  These offers were reported by recruiting sites (Rivals, Scout) or news sources (such as local newspapers).  Surely 189 isn’t the exact number of offers sent out, because some kids probably never bothered reporting their Michigan offers and some kids probably exaggerated on their recruiting profiles.  But this represents all offers that were made available to my attention, both from Rich Rodriguez and new head coach Brady Hoke.

For comparison’s sake, Rich Rodriguez offered 190 recruits in 2010.

Although Michigan can receive National Letters of Intent until April 1, it seems that the class has been capped at 20 recruits.  So some quick math tells us that 10.6% of recruits who were tendered scholarship offers from Michigan actually accepted that offer (compared to 14.2% last year).  Combining those 20 recruits with the 34 who pledged to other Big Ten schools (including Nebraska), a total of 54 offerees chose the Big Ten.

The twelve-team SEC was actually Michigan’s biggest competition, accepting commitments from 42 players who were offered by the Maize and Blue.  The ACC reeled in the same number as the rest of the Big Ten: 34.

Jumping down the list, five recruits remain undecided or might be headed to junior college: Jadeveon Clowney, Shawn Conway, Taques Franklin, Prince Holloway, and Dexter Staley.  As #1 recruits are wont to do in recent years (Terrelle Pryor in 2008, Bryce Brown in 2009, Seantrel Henderson in 2010, etc.), this year’s consensus #1 recruit, Jadeveon Clowney, has yet to make a decision.  He will likely choose an SEC school (probably South Carolina), further cementing the SEC as Michigan’s prime competition for recruits.

One player, kicker Connor Loftus from California, chose to attend the University of Pennsylvania, an FCS school.

Interestingly, this is the exact same order that appeared during the 2010 recruiting cycle (NOTE: last year’s chart did not include Michigan commitments in the Big Ten’s total).  The 2010 class even featured the Big Ten garnering 54 Michigan offerees, an exact replica of the 2011 class.  That’s flippin’ weird.  Anyway, the Big Ten was then followed by the SEC, then the ACC, Pac-10, Big East, Big 12, etc.

That, folks, is a pattern.  Or . . . well . . . at least a coincidence.