Tag: Darryl Stonum

Review of 2010 Season Predictions

Denard Robinson was the star of the show in 2010

One of the reasons I started this blog a couple years ago was to record my thoughts and predictions in order to go back, see what I said, and see if I was right.  With the 2010 season completed, I thought I would go back and check out what I said prior to the year beginning.

First of all, here were my 2010 Season Predictions.

And here’s a rundown of how accurate those were:

STARTING QUARTERBACK
Prediction: I said Denard Robinson would start the opener but that Tate Forcier would have an opportunity to take most of the snaps by the end of the season.
Actual: Denard Robinson started the entire season.
Accuracy: 50%

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Denard Robinson with approximately 800 yards.
Actual: Well, I was right on the player, but wrong on the yardage.  Way wrong.  Robinson ended up wtih 1,702 yards on the ground.
Accuracy: 100%
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Roy Roundtree with 60 catches for 900 yards
Actual: Roundtree had 72 catches for 935 yards.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: Jonas Mouton
Actual: Mouton led the team with 117 tackles, beating out safety Jordan Kovacs by a slim margin.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen with 7.5 sacks
Actual: Van Bergen led the team in sacks, but it was a down year in that category – he ended up with only 4.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING INTERCEPTOR
Prediction: J.T. Floyd
Actual: Cornerback James Rogers and safety/linebacker Cam Gordon each had 3.  Floyd only had 1, but he missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: Incomplete due to Floyd’s injury

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Center David Molk and kick returner Darryl Stonum
Actual: Molk was the right choice.  However, the coaches decided to save Stonum for his offensive duties, giving the job to a couple mediocre returners instead.  With a surprisingly good season, Denard Robinson was also named to the first team by the media.
Accuracy: 33%

LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER, NON-QUARTERBACK)
Prediction: Roy Roundtree
Actual: Running back Michael Shaw scored 9 touchdowns to lead this category.  Roundtree and running back Vincent Smith were second with 7 touchdowns each.
Accuracy: 0%

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Denard Robinson
Actual: Robinson was definitely the breakout player of the year on offense.  He was in the discussion for the Heisman, was the Big Ten Player of the Year, and generally wowed Michigan fans and college football fans in general.
Accuracy: 100%

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen
Actual: Well, nobody really expected much from the defense, and that’s what they got – not much.  Van Bergen had a decent season with 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks.  But I think the real breakout star was middle linebacker Kenny Demens, who surpassed incumbent Obi Ezeh and finished third on the team with 82 tackles.
Accuracy: 0%

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Vincent Smith
Actual: I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Smith was somewhat less effective than is expected from a starting tailback at Michigan.  He finished the year averaging 4.4 yards per carry and – other than a long run against Indiana – was generally ineffective as a complementary runner to quarterback Denard Robinson.  Roundtree might be an option here because of his play in the final few games of the season, but Smith was ineffective for the majority of the season.
Accuracy: 100%

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Cameron Gordon
Actual: While Gordon was a disappointment after all the hype he received in the spring and summer, he wasn’t a complete failure.  He actually made some plays from the free safety position (3 interceptions), but he didn’t have the speed or awareness to stay there and moved to outside linebacker.  But the bigger disappointment was Obi Ezeh, the fifth-year senior middle linebacker who lost his job mid-season to redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens.  Ezeh ended the year with 58 tackles, which is exactly 24 fewer than Demens . . . and 8 fewer than J.T. Floyd, the cornerback who missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: 0%

GAME PREDICTIONS
Win against UConn
Loss to Notre Dame
Win against UMass
Win against Bowling Green
Loss to Indiana
Loss to Michigan State
Win against Iowa
Win against Penn State
Win against Illinois
Win against Purdue
Loss to Wisconsin
Loss to Ohio State

OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY:
63.9%

Iowa 38, Michigan 28

Tate Forcier (#5) jumps for joy after a Stephen Hopkins rushing TD.

I expected an Iowa victory on Saturday, but once again, Michigan’s defense failed in spectacular fashion.  Giving up 38 points to a team with mediocre offensive personnel is extremely frustrating.  I can’t imagine what a team with a truly good offense – Oregon, for example – might do to Michigan’s D.  Some bullets:

Tate Forcier is quarterback 1b.  I’m not prepared to call for the benching of Denard Robinson.  Robinson is still the prototype for Rich Rodriguez’s zone read option offense.  However, Robinson also feasted on defenses early in the season who a) lacked athleticism or b) lacked complex defensive schemes.  How many times did we see him torch defenses that committed an extra safety or two to the run game, only to see Robinson and one of his receivers beat man coverage with a throw over the top?  Meanwhile, Forcier made a couple questionable throws, but provided a spark when relieving an injured Robinson late in the game.  Tate finished the day 17-for-26 for 239 yards, 2 touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 passing), and 2 interceptions.  Is there any question at this point that Forcier ought to be one of the top two quarterbacks on the team?  We haven’t seen freshman Devin Gardner since the Big Ten season started, so I still can’t understand why the coaches burned his redshirt against UConn . . . unless Gardner comes down with a mysterious “injury” or “illness” that allows him to get a medical exemption.

Denard Robinson runs the ball too much.  Posters over at MGoBlog have done “studies” to show that mobile quarterbacks and pocket quarterbacks have similar rates of injury.  When people have made the argument that Denard Robinson is bound to get hurt because of his small stature, some internet message boarders have scoffed.  Well, my study of Denard Robinson says this:

• On 143 pass attempts, Denard Robinson hasn’t suffered an injury that caused him to miss playing time.
• On 137 rushing attempts, he has suffered injuries that have caused him to miss time in 6 games.

Robinson is too slight and/or injury prone to be carrying the ball nearly 20 times a game.  If I remember correctly, he had 17 carries at halftime.  Should Michigan really be running its MVP and starting quarterback 34 times in a single game?

Rocko Khoury is a solid backup.  Unlike last year, when right guard David Moosman replaced David Molk at center due to Molk’s injuries, redshirt sophomore center Khoury played admirably after Molk aggravated an ankle injury early in the game.  Khoury had a case of the jitters early on and had some snap issues, but those seemed to get solved pretty quickly.

Vincent Smith should be relegated to backup duty.  I know I’m a broken record, but at least Rich Rodriguez finally figured out what I’ve been saying for awhile: Smith isn’t a short yardage back.  Hopkins was the short yardage back on Saturday, and he responded with 8 carries for 38 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and a goal line touchdown (pictured above) in which he actually ran through a tackle.  Meanwhile, Smith had 10 carries for 39 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and a critical lost fumble on Iowa’s 14-yard line.  For the record, Smith also had 2 catches for 22 yards and 1 touchdown, so he wasn’t exactly useless.  But that’s my thing with Smith: if he’s lined up in the slot or catching passes out of the backfield, I’m okay with him being out there.  But he shouldn’t be leading the running backs in carries.

Tate Forcier and Darryl Stonum are in love.  When Denard was in the game, Darryl Stonum got visibly frustrated with having to dig out a couple errant passes from hitting the ground.  When Forcier entered the game, it seemed like the QB was looking for #22 on every play.  Stonum ended the day with 9 catches for 97 yards, most of which came after Forcier’s entrance into the game.  Forcier also hit Junior Hemingway a few times and Hemingway ended the day with 9 catches for 134 yards and 1 touchdown.

Run the ball, damnit.  It would have been nice if Michigan’s offense could have kept Iowa off balance by running the ball late in the game.  I know they were running short on time, but passing on every down is extremely difficult.  Once Forcier entered the game, the playcalling seemed to want him to sling the ball all over the field.  Maybe it’s just me, but I thought Forcier’s second interception was the result of the lack of a running threat.  Like I said, the clock might have dictated the playcalling, so I don’t have a huge problem with the call.  But it sure would be nice if a dangerous running back (hopefully Demetrius Hart in the near future) could make defenses think twice before getting to their drops.

Michigan’s defense is atrocious.  I’m not going to spend too much time talking about the defense.  We all know which unit most needs to improve for Michigan to have any chance of success.  Michigan failed to come up with key defensive stops and allowed a mediocre running back to run for 142 yards.  And while Iowa’s passing offense isn’t prone to huge plays, quarterback Ricky Stanzi completed 71% of his passes.  My frustration reached its apex when JT Floyd aligned himself inside of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos to take away the slant and force the receiver to the sideline.  Johnson-Koulianos deked outside, Floyd jumped him, and Johnson-Koulianos waltzed untouched into the endzone after catching – what else? – a slant.  I don’t know if that’s poor coaching or poor execution, especially because Floyd made the same mistake a couple drives later (although it didn’t go for a touchdown).

Jordan Kovacs is oh so close to being good.  On a corner blitz in the first quarter, safety Kovacs jumped a fade route near Michigan’s end zone.  If Kovacs were a half step faster, the ball would have been picked and returned about 100 yards for a touchdown.  But since Kovacs is who he is, the play resulted in a PBU.  Kovacs played well for the most part, but his physical limitations will continue to make me wish brain transplants were feasible.  If Justin Turner had Kovacs’ knowledge and work ethic, Turner would be an All Big Ten safety.

Kenny Demens played well.  He still did some frustrating things, but Demens showed more promise than Obi Ezeh has shown this year.  I’m still not entirely sold on Demens as the savior at MLB, but he made some strides against Iowa.

Special teams were atrocious, too.  Walk-on kicker Seth Broekhuizen has beaten out redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons.  Gibbons must be horrible, because Broekhuizen had a field goal blocked for the second week in a row.  He also booted at least two (three?) kickoffs out of bounds to give Iowa great field position.  That’s effing ridiculous.  And if you’ve been wondering why William Campbell hasn’t earned more playing time on the defensive line, maybe that blocked field goal gives you an inkling – Iowa defensive tackle Broderick Binns got lower than Campbell and blew open a gap in the protection.  At least Will Hagerup played well and averaged 50+ yards a punt.  I wonder if he can kick off.

Michigan vs. Indiana Awards

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Darryl Stonum as a good kick returner.  Seriously, what happened?  Stonum set a Michigan record for kick return yardage last year.  He has improved as a receiver this year, but the team is #102 in the country in kick returns this season.  It’s not all Stonum’s fault – the blocking hasn’t been there.  But yeesh . . . as I said in yesterday’s post, every unit on the team has been bad except the offense.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson as punters.  It’s not that Tate and Denard have done a bad job of punting.  But the punter position was created for a reason.  If you’re allotting a scholarship for a punter, then use him.  Saturday’s “surprise” punt came from Tate when Michigan was sitting in its own territory on a 4th-and-1.  Just send Hagerup out there and let him kick it.  These “surprise” punts aren’t surprising when the QB lines up 8 yards behind the ball for the shotgun snap and when you run it almost every week.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Jibreel Black.  He seemed to be getting a decent pass rush throughout the game, which is impressive for a freshman defensive end.  I don’t think he should be the starter because I think he’s a liability against the run right now, but Indiana was a good matchup for him with their 64 pass attempts.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Jeremy Gallon as punt returner.  Another game, another muffed punt.  Luckily he recovered this one, but man, these punt return experiments just need to end.  I don’t understand why Michigan, with all its athleticism, can’t find a good punt returner.  Gallon has the running skills to be a good returner, but he doesn’t judge punts or catch them well.  Drew Dileo’s redshirt has already been burned, and returning punts is his forte.  Put Dileo back there, or someone else who can at least catch the ball consistently.

MVP of the Indiana game . . . Denard Robinson.  Yet again.  These really are video game numbers.  He finished 10-for-16 for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He also carried the ball 19 times for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns.  And just like the Notre Dame game, he led the game-winning touchdown drive and scored the go-ahead TD.  How ridiculous is 27.7 yards per completion and 11.4 yards per carry?  Pretty ridiculous.

2010 Countdown: #13 Darryl Stonum

Name: Darryl Stonum
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 195 lbs.
High school: Dulles High School in Stafford, TX
Position: Wide receiver/kick returner
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #22
Last year: I ranked Stonum #21 and called him an inconsistent deep threat. He caught 13 passes for 199 yards and 1 touchdown. He also returned 39 kickoffs for 1,001 yards (both are school records) and 1 touchdown.

Stonum has been one of the more frustrating components of Michigan’s team over the past year or so. He committed to Lloyd Carr’s Wolverines and then enrolled early in January 2008 for spring practices run by Rich Rodriguez. At the time of his entry to the University of Michigan, it was assumed that he would be Michigan’s next great deep threat due to his excellent speed and acceleration. However, he suffered from a case of the Dropsies at times, and he doesn’t always run his routes with maximum effort. Furthermore, his quarterbacks for the past two seasons have been less than stellar, a phrase that could also be used to describe his decision-making – Stonum received a DUI as a Wolverine, too.

Now it’s 2010 and Stonum is an upperclassman. While he was an elite kick returner in 2009, his receiving stats weren’t anything to write home about. He averaged just over one catch per game, although in fairness, those passes were being thrown by true freshmen. The deep passing game has been somewhat de-emphasized, whether by scheme or necessity. Therefore, most of the passes we’re seeing are hitches, slants, or bubble screens, not deep posts, fly patterns, etc. Stonum has the talent to make plays on deep balls and run away from defenders, but the opportunities have been few and far between. But the 2010 season will see the use of quarterbacks who have actually taken college snaps before, whether that QB is Denard Robinson or Tate Forcier. This should improve Stonum’s stats, although the quarterbacks have grown to love targeting slot receiver/wideout Roy Roundtree. Roundtree might lead the team in receptions and receiving yards, but Stonum’s ability to get deep as well as return kickoffs makes him one of the most important members of the 2010 squad.

Prediction for 2010: Starting wide receiver and kick returner; 35 receptions, 525 yards, 3 touchdowns

The leading vote-getter for #13 on the list was Cameron Gordon with 25% of the votes. Stonum finished second with 18%.

2010 Countdown: #74 Jeremy Jackson

Name: Jeremy Jackson
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 196 lbs.
High school: Huron High School in Ann Arbor, MI
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #17
Prediction for 2010: Redshirt

I struggled with where to put Jackson on the list. There’s no question in my mind that at least one of the freshman receivers will play this season (Jackson, Ricardo Miller, or Jerald Robinson), perhaps more. Darryl Stonum and Junior Hemingway are the likely starters, but there’s not much after that.

But I’ve never been a fan of Jackson’s playmaking ability. As the son of running backs coach Fred Jackson, he’s probably learning the offense quickly and is technically sound. He’s tall and can probably grab some jump balls. But golly gee, he looks super slow in every video I’ve ever seen of him – game film, spring practice video, etc. Not only might that be a problem for getting downfield, but I even doubt whether he can be an effective blocker at this point. I feel like Big Ten cornerbacks would just dance around him to make a tackle. So out of the three freshman wideouts, I think Jackson is the least likely to play this season.