Tag: David Molk

Review of 2010 Season Predictions

Denard Robinson was the star of the show in 2010

One of the reasons I started this blog a couple years ago was to record my thoughts and predictions in order to go back, see what I said, and see if I was right.  With the 2010 season completed, I thought I would go back and check out what I said prior to the year beginning.

First of all, here were my 2010 Season Predictions.

And here’s a rundown of how accurate those were:

STARTING QUARTERBACK
Prediction: I said Denard Robinson would start the opener but that Tate Forcier would have an opportunity to take most of the snaps by the end of the season.
Actual: Denard Robinson started the entire season.
Accuracy: 50%

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Denard Robinson with approximately 800 yards.
Actual: Well, I was right on the player, but wrong on the yardage.  Way wrong.  Robinson ended up wtih 1,702 yards on the ground.
Accuracy: 100%
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Roy Roundtree with 60 catches for 900 yards
Actual: Roundtree had 72 catches for 935 yards.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: Jonas Mouton
Actual: Mouton led the team with 117 tackles, beating out safety Jordan Kovacs by a slim margin.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen with 7.5 sacks
Actual: Van Bergen led the team in sacks, but it was a down year in that category – he ended up with only 4.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING INTERCEPTOR
Prediction: J.T. Floyd
Actual: Cornerback James Rogers and safety/linebacker Cam Gordon each had 3.  Floyd only had 1, but he missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: Incomplete due to Floyd’s injury

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Center David Molk and kick returner Darryl Stonum
Actual: Molk was the right choice.  However, the coaches decided to save Stonum for his offensive duties, giving the job to a couple mediocre returners instead.  With a surprisingly good season, Denard Robinson was also named to the first team by the media.
Accuracy: 33%

LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER, NON-QUARTERBACK)
Prediction: Roy Roundtree
Actual: Running back Michael Shaw scored 9 touchdowns to lead this category.  Roundtree and running back Vincent Smith were second with 7 touchdowns each.
Accuracy: 0%

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Denard Robinson
Actual: Robinson was definitely the breakout player of the year on offense.  He was in the discussion for the Heisman, was the Big Ten Player of the Year, and generally wowed Michigan fans and college football fans in general.
Accuracy: 100%

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen
Actual: Well, nobody really expected much from the defense, and that’s what they got – not much.  Van Bergen had a decent season with 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks.  But I think the real breakout star was middle linebacker Kenny Demens, who surpassed incumbent Obi Ezeh and finished third on the team with 82 tackles.
Accuracy: 0%

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Vincent Smith
Actual: I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Smith was somewhat less effective than is expected from a starting tailback at Michigan.  He finished the year averaging 4.4 yards per carry and – other than a long run against Indiana – was generally ineffective as a complementary runner to quarterback Denard Robinson.  Roundtree might be an option here because of his play in the final few games of the season, but Smith was ineffective for the majority of the season.
Accuracy: 100%

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Cameron Gordon
Actual: While Gordon was a disappointment after all the hype he received in the spring and summer, he wasn’t a complete failure.  He actually made some plays from the free safety position (3 interceptions), but he didn’t have the speed or awareness to stay there and moved to outside linebacker.  But the bigger disappointment was Obi Ezeh, the fifth-year senior middle linebacker who lost his job mid-season to redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens.  Ezeh ended the year with 58 tackles, which is exactly 24 fewer than Demens . . . and 8 fewer than J.T. Floyd, the cornerback who missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: 0%

GAME PREDICTIONS
Win against UConn
Loss to Notre Dame
Win against UMass
Win against Bowling Green
Loss to Indiana
Loss to Michigan State
Win against Iowa
Win against Penn State
Win against Illinois
Win against Purdue
Loss to Wisconsin
Loss to Ohio State

OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY:
63.9%

Mailbag: How will the blocking schemes change?



The California Golden Bears use a zone blocking system



Hey Thunder,
I’m curious as to how you think the Michigan offensive line will perform in 2011. What are the main differences in zone blocking vs. man blocking schemes, and do you think Michigan’s current group is up to the task? I’ve never coached offensive line (or defensive line) in my brief career, so I’m curious. Thanks!

To first get some terminology out of the way, no team out there runs a true “man blocking scheme”, at least not the way many people interpret those words  That phrase can be disingenuous. 

When one talks about zone blocking, it usually refers to a play in which a running play is intended to go in a general direction, not necessarily to one particular hole.  The offensive linemen do follow some rules about who to engage, but generally, a linemen tries to lock on to a defender, take him in whichever direction he wants to go, and then let the running back find a lane to follow.  A good explanation from a blog I like comes from Smart Football’s post on the matter.

When one talks about man blocking, it often refers to rule blocking.  There are some plays within man blocking schemes in which the offensive linemen choose who to block based on counting the number of defenders to their side of the ball.  For example, on a running play to the right, the center might block the #1 guy to the right of the ball (whether it’s a defensive lineman or linebacker), the guard takes #2, the tackle takes #3, and the tight end walls off #4.  In that type of situation, it doesn’t matter how the defense aligns – the linemen just count at the line of scrimmage and then try to drive defenders off the ball.  A post from footballcoaching.com provides a list of pros and cons for each type of scheme.  Man blocking schemes do have the ability to run complicated plays, such as the counter trey, on which the backside guard and backside tackle pull and lead through a hole.  Unlike zone plays, these plays typically are intended to go to one particular hole.

As for how Michigan’s linemen will fare in what we can only assume will be a more man blocking-oriented scheme, I think they’ll be just fine.  Rich Rodriguez and Mike Barwis realized last year that 290-pound linemen can’t get the job done at Michigan, so several of them bulked up to 300 pounds for the 2010 season.  I don’t expect that Michigan will return to having oodles of 320-330 lb. behemoths, but some of these guys should be able to hit 310-315.  New strength and conditioning coach Aaron Wellman has talked about keeping down his players’ body fat percentage, so I don’t expect Michigan to turn into a bunch of Wisconsin Badger-like fatties.

Individually . . .

LT Taylor Lewan. He was somewhat light this past season due to his youth, but I think he can be successful in any scheme.  He’s strong, nasty, and athletic.  I’ve said since he was recruited that he plays like Jake Long.  He’ll continue to add some weight and continue to be a mauler.

LG Ricky Barnum (?).  I’m operating under the assumption that Barnum will replace the departed Steve Schilling.  Barnum has flirted with playing offensive tackle in the past, but he doesn’t have the length to play tackle.  To me he’s a prototypical bowling ball of a guard.

C David Molk. Molk might be the lightest guy on the offensive line, but he’s also the strongest.  Centers are typically the smallest offensive linemen, so I’m not concerned about his lack of size.

RG Patrick Omameh.  I still think that Omameh would be a good fit at offensive tackle, although I’m not sure he’ll switch positions at this point.  He doesn’t have the prototypical body type for a guard in a man blocking scheme; he might be heavy enough, but he’s more the athletic guard type than a straight ahead mauler.  He’s excellent on the move, like former UCLA Bruin and Baltimore Raven Johnathan Ogden (although obviously not as big and probably not as good), so I expect offensive coordinator Al Borges to run counters, waggles, and traps to utilize Omameh’s athleticism.

RT Mark Huyge.  I’ve never been impressed with Huyge, but maybe he’ll take a leap as a senior.  He’s got the size, but I’ve just never thought of him as a great athlete.  If another guard steps up (Rocko Khoury, maybe), I wouldn’t mind seeing Omameh bump out to RT and having Khoury step in at right guard.  We’ll see what happens.

These guys probably won’t be the equivalent of the mean, nasty, road grading offensive linemen that populated Michigan in decades past, but they should be able to hold their ground.  If Borges and Brady Hoke hold to their promise of making changes to the offense based on personnel, then they should be able to take advantage of this line’s strengths.  I don’t want to see Borges forced into zone blocking if that’s not his specialty, but he needs to get these guys on the move.

Who fits and who doesn’t?

Quarterback Denard Robinson might struggle in a Brady Hoke offense

After Lloyd Carr retired in 2007, Rich Rodriguez was hired and struggled to turn Carr’s pro-style personnel into a spread-style offense.  Steve Threet and Nick Sheridan didn’t light the world on fire in 2008, and Tate Forcier was decent for a freshman in 2009.  But the quarterbacks and other offensive players didn’t hit their Rodriguez-level spread until 2010, when Denard Robinson temporarily vaulted into the lead of the Heisman Trophy race.  That leap was short-lived, since Rodriguez was ousted and replaced by Brady Hoke in January 2011, signifying a return to a pro-style offense.

I really had no reason to watch or study San Diego State University’s offense during the football season, but I’ve since watched some highlights and read some accounts of Hoke’s offensive schemes.  Since no assistant coaches have been announced yet, it’s impossible to say for sure what schemes will be run.  However, here are some thoughts based on what I’ve seen from SDSU’s 2010 offense.

It’s Michigan all over again.  Lloyd Carr-style Michigan, at least.  Multiple tight end sets, two backs in the backfield, play action with deep posts, a little bit of shotgun spread, I-formation, etc.  Yep.  You’ve seen it before.

Quarterbacks.  Both of SDSU’s quarterbacks were 6’4″-6’5″ and 210-215 lbs.  This does not bode well for Denard Robinson, who is approximately 6’0″ and 193 lbs.  Additionally, Robinson’s best asset is his ability to run, not to drop back and read defenses.  My initial reaction is to expect that Robinson will transfer, perhaps to Pitt, where former Michigan offensive coordinator Calvin Magee has alighted.  He could go to Pittsburgh, sit out 2011, and have two years of eligibility to play quarterback.  In my opinion, the best chance Hoke has to retain Robinson is to make a pitch for Robinson to become a running back or wide receiver.  I think most people realize that Robinson’s NFL future lies in a position other than QB, so perhaps Hoke can convince him to begin that position change now.  The rumor is that Tate Forcier has flunked out of the University of Michigan, so that leaves sophomore/redshirt freshman Devin Gardner to helm Michigan’s offense.  I do not expect Gardner that would look elsewhere, and he could potentially be a four-year starter for Hoke.  Gardner is more suited to play in a pro-style offense than Rodriguez’s spread, in my opinion, so this could be a positive change for him.

Running backs.  This might be partially due to the talent available at Ball State and San Diego State, but Hoke doesn’t seem to mind using smaller running backs.  One might think that he would revert to the 6’1″, 220 lb. running backs that Michigan used to employ in the 1990s and early 2000s, but that won’t necessarily be the case.  I think each of the running backs on the current roster should be compatible with Hoke’s offense if they so choose.

Fullbacks.  Michigan fans shouldn’t necessarily expect the bruising, blocker-only fullbacks that Lloyd Carr often used.  Don’t think Kevin Dudley or Obi Oluigbo.  Think B.J. Askew.  Senior John McColgan could fit here as a blocker, but guys like Stephen Hopkins or Michael Cox would likely be more effective.

Tight ends.  Michigan’s current tight ends shouldn’t have a hard time fitting in with Hoke.  He likes to involve the tight end in the passing game (SDSU’s starter had 29 receptions and averaged 11+ yards a catch), and both Kevin Koger and Brandon Moore are athletic, pass-catching types.  Ricardo Miller has reportedly changed positions to become a tight end, as well.

Wide receivers.  In the short-term, Michigan should be fine at wide receiver.  Hoke ran a West Coast style offense that uses bigger wide receivers.  The likes of Darryl Stonum, Roy Roundtree, Je’Ron Stokes, D.J. Williamson, Jerald Robinson, and Jeremy Jackson should be fine.  A couple of those guys aren’t exactly big, but they’re big enough and the top few guys are good enough to be successful.  Martavious Odoms played outside in 2010, even though he’s more of a slot receiver.  I do think Odoms could be a factor at WR because of his athleticism, blocking, and chutzpah, but he’s probably not the type of wideout that Hoke will recruit.

Slot receivers.  Yeah, this is the position that will likely be phased out at Michigan.  That’s not to say that we should expect Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, Kelvin Grady, or Drew Dileo to get cut.  Every team out there seems to be able to use one or two of those types of guys to return punts and kicks, be a change-of-pace runner, or play in the slot.  But there won’t be a need to keep so many of those types of kids on the roster.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see some attrition from this position.  I hope that none of these guys transfer, so don’t take this the wrong way, but it might make sense for a guy like Gallon or Robinson to go elsewhere.  Gallon would have two years of eligibility remaining since he redshirted already; Robinson would only have one if he went to an FBS school, but he could play immediately in the FCS.

Offensive line.  Michigan’s offensive linemen beefed up for the 2010 season, and I don’t think the transition will be much of a problem for them.  We might see them adding a little more bulk for 2011 – especially Taylor Lewan – but it’s not like Rich Rodriguez was playing 260-pound linemen.  Michigan might be a little undersized at center for a couple years, but David Molk is the strongest offensive lineman on the team and Christian Pace should have another year to add weight.  But guys like Lewan, Patrick Omameh, Ricky Barnum, Elliott Mealer, and Rocko Khoury should be just fine.

Summary.  Offensive attrition should be minimal as far as numbers go.  Michigan might lose a quarterback, and I would understand if a running back/slot guy or two decided to try his hand elsewhere, but the transition from Rodriguez’s spread to Hoke’s pro-style offense shouldn’t be as much of a culture shock as Carr-to-Rodriguez.  However, just looking at the quarterback position, the performance might suffer in the short-term while Hoke hones the skills of whichever quarterback(s) sticks around.

2010 Season Predictions

Starting quarterback: Denard Robinson will start the season opener against UConn on Saturday. However, I think his lack of passing ability (although improved) will give Tate Forcier a chance to take the majority of the snaps by the end of the season.

Leading rusher: Denard Robinson. Even if he’s not the starting quarterback for the entire season, he should get enough carries – and enough big plays – to be Michigan’s leading rusher. The team also lacks a clear #1 running back, which means handoffs will be shared amongst Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins. My guess is Robinson will end up with around 800 yards rushing.

Leading receiver: Roy Roundtree. The quarterbacks like to target the slot receivers, and Roundtree caught 30 balls over the last four games last season. The guess here is that Roundtree gets 60 catches and 900 yards this season.

Leading tackler: Last year’s leading tackler was Steve Brown, who played something similar to the Spur position. That will be manned by freshman Carvin Johnson, who will almost surely suffer from brain farts or injury this year and therefore disqualify himself. The second-leading tackler was Jordan Kovacs, who will probably lose some time to freshman Marvin Robinson. The third leading tackler was middle linebacker Obi Ezeh, who seems to have lost his job to a converted fullback. So I’m going with last year’s fourth-leading tackler: Jonas Mouton.

Leading sacker: Redshirt junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen will edge out sophomore linebacker Craig Roh by the slightest of margins, 7.5 to 7.

Leading interceptor: I don’t expect Michigan to grab a lot of picks this year. The Wolverines will probably have a few guys pick off two passes each, and those will be J.T. Floyd, Jordan Kovacs, and Jonas Mouton. But because I don’t want to be wishy-washy like Michael Wilbon, I’ll pick Floyd.

All Big Ten 1st team: Center David Molk. Kick returner Darryl Stonum.

Leading scorer (non-QB, non-kicker): Roy Roundtree.

Breakout offensive player: I don’t see anyone having a monstrous season, and Roy Roundtree was probably 2009’s breakout player, or else I would pick him. So I’ll go with Denard Robinson, who will hopefully be able to pass the ball well enough to qualify in this category.

Breakout defensive player: Ugh, this defense looks bad. I guess I’ll go with Ryan Van Bergen. He won’t be a superstar and he won’t approximate Brandon Graham, but he should be able to get a consistent pass rush.

Most disappointing offensive player: Despite being listed as a co-starter, I think Vincent Smith will be somewhat of a disappointment this year. A lot of people thought he was the heir apparent last year when he seemed to be the primary backup for the senior running backs, but I think he’s just mediocre. He might be consistent, but spectacular plays are outside his reach, in my opinion.

Most disappointing defensive player: Cameron Gordon can’t possibly live up to all the offseason hype, although I hope he can. He’s still going to be raw, and I think he’ll make some frustrating plays. This is a hard category to pick, because not much is expected from anyone on defense, really.

The Big Finish
Sept. 4 vs. Connecticut: WIN. Connecticut is a little banged up, and they will be able to run the ball. But Rodriguez was undefeated against UConn in the Big East, and most of those games were blowouts. He knows how to defeat a Randy Edsall-coached team.

Sept. 11 at Notre Dame: LOSS. Dayne Crist and Michael Floyd will dispatch an overmatched secondary in a shootout.

Sept. 18 vs. UMass: WIN. Something approximating the 63-6 trouncing of Delaware State last year is likely.

Sept. 25 vs. Bowling Green: WIN. Michigan’s high-powered offense and superior athletes should be able to roll past BGSU, and the Falcons lost some significant firepower from last season.

Oct. 2 @ Indiana: LOSS. Remember when I said that Troy Woolfolk’s injury would cost Michigan a game at some point? It’s this one right here.

Oct. 9 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. I’d like to pick a win here, but Michigan isn’t good enough to start 5-1, and Kirk Cousins should be able to throw the ball all over the field.

Oct. 16 vs. Iowa: WIN. Michigan barely lost at Iowa last season, and the Wolverines match up with the Hawkeyes better this year. Iowa has a stout defense, but Michigan’s offense has improved.

Oct. 30 @ Penn State: WIN. Penn State’s quarterback position is in flux, the offensive line is weakened, and the defense suffered from some big losses. They’ll get a bunch of rushing yards, but Michigan should be able to pull it out in the end.

Nov. 6 vs. Illinois: WIN. Illinois sucks. They’ll be able to run the ball, but they won’t score enough.

Nov. 13 @ Purdue: WIN. Purdue has a solid defense and they’ve beaten Michigan a couple years in a row . . . I just can’t imagine the Boilermakers running the streak to three.

Nov. 20 vs. Wisconsin: LOSS. Wisconsin looks good this year. Even though I think they’ll fall short of many people’s expectations, they’re probably better than the Wolverines.

Nov. 27 @ Ohio State: LOSS. Ugh.

Final record: 7-5.

Jack Miller, Wolverine

Jack Miller should fit in well on this team.

St. John’s (Toledo, OH) offensive lineman Jack Miller committed to Michigan on Tuesday. He picked up a Michigan offer a couple weeks ago and hinted that his decision would come soon. Michigan was considered the heavy favorite, but it took Miller a little longer to announce his decision than he hinted at originally. Either way, he’s a Wolverine now.

Miller has been ranked by the recruiting services as a defensive lineman, so his 3-star status and position rankings are somewhat irrelevant. Although he could play defense if a position switch is deemed necessary at some point, Miller was recruited to play offense and had lengthy discussions with offensive line coach Greg Frey regarding how he fits. Listed at 6’4″, 270 lbs. he’s likely an interior line prospect. Although he doesn’t play center as a high schooler, he could be in line to snap the ball. After finishing a likely redshirt year, David Molk would be gone, Rocko Khoury would be a fifth year senior, and Christian Pace would be a redshirt sophomore.

First, a news clip:

Now, highlights from Scouting Ohio:

He’s clearly an aggressive player, both on offense and defense. He likes to hit people hard. And when he does, he doesn’t celebrate. To me, that means he’s used to it. It’s not an exciting novelty for him to punish somebody. It’s just his job.

However, one criticism that I have of Miller is that he plays high. This is a problem both on offense and defense, and that concerns me, especially as an interior lineman prospect. Especially if he’s going to play center, leverage is of utmost importance. And in my opinion, playing low is something that’s very difficult to change. It’s something that comes naturally or it doesn’t. That’s the difference between elite players and so-so players.

I like Miller’s aggression, but I’m concerned about his technique. To be honest, I’m up in the air with this commitment. I don’t really foresee him becoming a stud lineman at any point, but he could be a decent starter later in his career, a la David Moosman*.

*Please note that Guard David Moosman was significantly better than Center David Moosman.