Tag: Donovan Warren

Review: 2009 Season Predictions

Jordan Kovacs went from an afterthought to a Freshman All-American.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to record my predictions, in order to look back on them at a later date. Well, that date has come. It’s a few weeks prior to the 2010 season, and I can’t help but think back on how I did last year (2009 Season Predictions here). I didn’t do too badly, but there were a couple surprises.

Starting Quarterback
Last year’s pick: Tate Forcier. I said he’d start every game.

I should have picked . . . Forcier. He started every game.

Leading Rusher
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor. I said he’d end the season with about 900 yards.

I should have picked . . . Minor. Minor only had 502 yards, but he missed three full games (plus parts of several others) due to injuries.

Leading Receiver
Last year’s pick: Greg Mathews. I said he’d catch 50 balls for 650 yards.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Mathews only caught 29 passes as the coaching staff continues to de-emphasize outside wide receivers. The leading receiver was slot receiver Roundtree, who caught 32 balls for 434 yards.

Leading Tackler
Last year’s pick: Obi Ezeh.

I should have picked . . . Steve Brown. Middle linebacker Ezeh fought through a back injury and inconsistency to finish third with 69 tackles. SAM linebacker Brown brought down 80 ballcarriers, while redshirt freshman safety Jordan Kovacs made 75 stops.

Leading Sacker
Last year’s pick: Brandon Graham. I said he’d finish at 10 sacks.

I should have picked . . . Graham. The obvious choice was obvious. Graham ended the season with 10.5 sacks, or 1/2 more of a sack than I thought. Damn half sacks!

Leading Interceptor
Last year’s pick: Donovan Warren. I said he’d snatch 3 errant passes.

I should have picked . . . Warren. He actually picked off 4 passes, so once again, I overestimated. If he had only picked off 3 like I told him to, then maybe he’d have stuck around for an extra year! Then again, that pick-off against Indiana really saved Michigan’s ass.

All-Big Ten First Team
Last year’s picks: Brandon Graham and Zoltan Mesko.

I should have picked . . . Graham, Mesko, and Donovan Warren. Graham and Mesko were voted All-Big Ten first team by the coaches. Those two plus Warren were chosen for the first team by the media. Two for three isn’t bad.

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor.

I should have picked . . . Minor. He scored 8 rushing touchdowns (48 points). The next closest scorer was Carlos Brown with 5 touchdowns (30 points). Placekicker Jason Olesnavage scored 75 points, but kickers are almost always the leading scorers, which is why I didn’t allow myself to pick him.

Breakout Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Junior Hemingway.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Hemingway only caught 16 passes, while Roundtree emerged as the go-to receiver late in the season and perhaps the front-runner for the next wearer of the coveted #1 jersey.

Breakout Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Troy Woolfolk.

I should have picked . . . Jordan Kovacs. I don’t feel bad about the Woolfolk pick. He made 46 tackles and I think he surprised a lot of people with his solid play at both deep safety and cornerback. Despite switching to cornerback halfway through the season, it seemed that opponents targeted Donovan Warren more often than Woolfolk. Still, Kovacs was a Freshman All-American, started eight games, and finished second on the team with 75 tackles.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Kevin Koger. I said he wouldn’t catch any more than 15 passes.

I should have picked . . . I’m not sure. Greg Mathews? Maybe Koger was the right pick. I said he’d catch 15 passes or less, and the spiteful bastard caught 16 just to piss me off. Regardless, he dropped a lot of passes in the second half of the season and got phased out of the offense a bit. It’s arguable who was the most disappointing, but I’m satisfied with my pick. I think most Michigan fans expected more production from the tight end spot.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Ryan Van Bergen. I said he’d end up with about 20 tackles and a couple sacks.

I should have picked . . . Obi Ezeh. Maybe Jonas Mouton. Those inside linebackers made a lot of Michigan fans sad. It might be a little harsh to put Ezeh here, since he had a bad back and everything. But it’s one of the two. Both were benched at various points, and Mouton had the same number of tackles as cornerback Donovan Warren. That’s not good. Meanwhile, Van Bergen basically doubled my predictions – he had 40 tackles and 5 sacks. Good for him.

In Summary . . .
Well, the results are a mixed bag. Out of twelve predictions, six of them were spot-on. That’s 50% (I’d like to thank my 4th grade teacher for the math skills). Technically, I guess I should get a slight deduction for only picking Graham and Mesko as All-Big Ten First Team; the coaches agreed with me, but the media added Warren. That’s 49%. But I think I should get a few points for Koger as Most Disappointing Offensive Player, as well as a slight bump for Woolfolk as Breakout Defensive Player. That puts me at right around 55%.

So . . . 55% of the time, I’m right every time. Perhaps I should not be trusted.

Go blue!

Explanation of the Countdown

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Brandon Graham was Michigan’s MVP last year.

As I started the 2010 Season Countdown, I assumed (wrongly) that people would remember the series from last year. But after fielding several questions on the topic, I realized that . . . well . . . nobody really read my blog last year. This still isn’t an extremely popular destination, but hey, 1,700+ hits for a full-time teacher and coach isn’t bad.

On to the explanation . . .

The countdown is designed to highlight each player and offer some opinions and analysis on each one. They are listed in order of “Least Important” to “Most Important” for the 2010 season. In other words, Christian Pace is at the bottom of the list because he’s the most likely to redshirt. Therefore, his impact on Michigan’s 2010 performance will be almost nil.

Last year’s 2009 Season Countdown had the following players in the top five:

1. Brandon Graham
2. Tate Forcier
3. Donovan Warren
4. Obi Ezeh
5. Brandon Minor

Now imagine if Brandon Graham had been lost to injury – Michigan would have lost 10.5 sacks and its defensive leader, and perhaps former walk-on Will Heininger would have drawn into the lineup. More likely, Ryan Van Bergen would have moved to defensive end full-time and Renaldo Sagesse, Greg Banks, or Will Campbell would have played 3-tech defensive tackle. Yeah . . . trading in Brandon Graham for Renaldo Sagesse – albeit a serviceable player – scares me, too.

Think about this: if Tate Forcier had been lost to injury and Denard Robinson had made the same number of passing attempts (281), Robinson’s 12% interception rate would have translated to approximately thirty-three (33!) interceptions. Michigan fans would have been clamoring for Nick Sheridan.

Without Warren (and Boubacar Cissoko, who got booted off the team), imagine potentially having J.T. Floyd and Teric Jones as your starting corners. Yikes!

It turns out, Obi Ezeh was injured in 2009, which partly caused him to have his worst season as a starter. In his stead, Michigan played redshirt sophomore, 206 lb. Kevin Leach.

I probably overestimated Brandon Minor’s importance to the team, since there were other running backs to pick up the slack. I still maintain that Minor was Michigan’s best back for the past two seasons, but the drop-off between Minor and Carlos Brown isn’t nearly as significant as, say, Brandon Graham to Will Heininger or from Forcier’s 13 interceptions to Robinson’s estimated 33 picks.

So I’m presenting the 2010 Season Countdown. On average, one player will be revealed each day until the beginning of the season, and the #1 guy is – in my estimation – the most important player for Michigan’s success this coming season.

2010 NFL Draft Preview

Brandon Graham attempting to kill Tim Hiller

Brandon Graham – DE/OLB
Graham is certain to be Michigan’s highest drafted player, projected by most “experts” as a mid-1st to early-2nd round pick. At 6’1″ and 268 lbs., he’s likely too short to play defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. There are very few 4-3 teams who like to play undersized ends like Graham. He’s more likely to be drafted to play outside linebacker by a team that runs a 3-4 scheme. Luckily for him, there has been a recent uptick in the number of teams who run base 3-4 fronts. He has excellent straight-line speed and benches 495 lbs., according to Michigan strength coach Mike Barwis. He suffered from a lack of conditioning and discipline early in his career at Michigan, but the last two years have seen Graham turn into a leader on and off the field. The effort level is there now in a way that it wasn’t when he was a freshman and sophomore.
Projection and potential destinations: 1st round between picks 12-29 (Miami, Seattle, New England, Green Bay, Arizona, New York Jets)

Donovan Warren – CB/S
After Graham, nobody is guaranteed to get drafted. Warren hurt himself with a couple slow 40 times, although his game speed was better than the reported 4.68 he ran at the NFL Combine. He’s run so slow, in fact, that some teams have suggested Warren might fit better as a safety in the NFL. Warren left Michigan after his junior season, but his production was less than one might expect from a “shutdown” Michigan corner. He’s a solid tackler with average ball skills. He offers no additional skills as a return man and, for the most part, doesn’t have the athleticism to be a big threat on interception returns. His upside is low, but he performed well enough on the field (although not necessarily in workouts) to warrant a late round pick. If he plays cornerback in the NFL, I think it has to be for a team that plays a good deal of Cover 2. Otherwise, he’s a free safety in the making.
Projection and potential destinations: 6th round (Tampa Bay, Chicago, Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England, Minnesota)

Zoltan Mesko – P
Mesko is generally considered to be the second-best punter in the draft. He gets excellent hangtime, which prevents him from outkicking his coverage. I always wondered if the rugby-style punts that Rich Rodriguez employs would hurt Mesko’s ability to be a straight dropback punter, and for whatever reason, his workouts for pro teams have reportedly been subpar. Those two things might not be related, but it’s interesting to consider. He was voted captain of Michigan’s team in 2009, so he’s likely not a Mike Vanderjagt-like bonehead of a specialist. His lack of kickoff experience might hurt him in the eyes of some general managers. On the plus side, he did 16 reps on the bench press at 225 lbs.
Projection and potential destinations: 7th round (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Miami, Denver)

Brandon Minor – RB
You will find no bigger fan of Brandon Minor than me. I love the way he runs the ball, his power, and the way he finishes runs. He also has underrated speed. Unfortunately, he rarely stayed healthy at Michigan, which hurt his production and surely NFL personnel people have flagged him for his injuries. Minor averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in his final two college seasons and he’s an excellent pass blocker. I don’t think NFL teams will spend a draft pick on a guy who spent so much time on the sideline, but if he somehow stays healthy, Minor is the type of guy who I could see having a 10-year NFL career. He reminds me of former Tennessee Volunteer and Detroit Lion Shawn Bryson, although Bryson had better speed.
Projection: Undrafted

Stevie Brown – SS
Brown came to Michigan as a cornerback/free safety tweener. By his senior year in 2009, he was an undersized strongside linebacker because he couldn’t cover in open space. He’s too indecisive to play free safety in the NFL and too small to play linebacker, but he could be a special teams contributor and backup strong safety on an NFL roster. His ball skills are somewhat lacking, but he ran a 4.55 at Michigan’s pro day and he brings some kick coverage skills to the table. He is a solid tackler in limited space and he can be an effective blitzer, so I see him as an in-the-box safety type.
Projection and potential destinations: Undrafted (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona, New York Jets, Baltimore)

Mark Ortmann – OT
Ortmann has excellent size at 6’6″ and 295 lbs. He was a solid but unspectacular starter at left guard and left tackle in his final two years. He has long arms and decent mobility, and I always thought Ortmann would turn out to be an above average player. However, he’s not the mauler that NFL general managers might be looking for. Even mediocre Michigan linemen have always been given a shot at the next level, so I expect Ortmann to get some looks. But ultimately he lacks the mobility and athleticism to play left tackle, and he lacks the strength and size to play right tackle. I could see him hanging around for a few years on practice squads or as a backup, but I don’t see him being an NFL starter at any point.
Projection: Undrafted

Carlos Brown – RB
Brown was one of the most hyped members of Michigan’s 2006 class due to his speed, but the production on the field never really matched the hype. While he has the speed to outrun even NFL players, Brown rarely makes it past the second level of defenders. In 20+ years of watching Michigan football, I can’t remember a running back that seemingly went down with as little contact. Brown stops his feet on contact and almost never gains yardage on second effort. He does have good hands and could be a third down back, but to me, he’s not a first- or second-string back. His ceiling seems to be as an end-of-the-bench, situational back who might be able to return an occasional kickoff.
Projection: Undrafted

David Moosman – OG
At 6’5″ and 292 lbs., Moosman is a little small to be an offensive guard in the NFL. He needs to pack on some weight to have a chance. Moosman started 23 of his last 24 games at Michigan and split time between guard and center. Unfortunately, the team’s struggles with him at center hint that a future snapping the ball might be out of the question. I think he’s strictly a guard prospect. Moosman is decently athletic and was rarely beaten at the guard position. He’s not someone who will wow you with his strength, but he has solid technique and he battles. To have a chance at sticking in the NFL, he needs to play for a zone running team like Indianapolis, Atlanta, or Washington.
Projection: Undrafted

Players are listed in order of their likelihood to be drafted, as determined by yours truly.

2010 Recruiting Grades: Cornerback

Demar Dorsey: good football player, questionable dancer

2010 Recruiting Grades: Slot Receiver

New England Patriot receiver Drew Dileo

The first is Drew Dileo, a 5’10”, 175 lb. player from Greenwell Springs, LA. Despite not having overwhelmingly impressive offers, Dileo can fill a role at Michigan – punt returner. Since Steve Breaston left after the 2006 season, Michigan has suffered from poor to mediocre punt returning. The role was assumed by guys like Donovan Warren (who took a lot of chances), Greg Mathews (sure-handed but slow), Martavious Odoms (whose butterfingers only show on punt/kick returns), and Junior Hemingway (again, slow). Dileo can play slot receiver, but his earliest chance to contribute will probably be on special teams.

It’s a good thing this photographer had a high-speed shutter.The second commitment at slot receiver comes from D.J. Williamson, from Warren, OH. Williamson is listed at 6’1″ and 172 lbs., meaning he’s thin and willowy. He has state championship track speed, but unfortunately, that speed hasn’t necessarily shown itself on the football field. Since his commitment, he struggled through a senior season in which he was injured and his quarterback play was subpar. He could play out wide or in the slot, but said on National Signing Day that he’ll start off inside.

Predictions: Dileo reminds me of New England Patriots receiver . . . Troy Brown. He’ll probably redshirt in 2010, as guys like Odoms and Jeremy Gallon could handle the punt returning duties. But at some point in his career, we’ll likely see Dileo deployed as a sure-handed, occasionally exciting returner. Williamson as a slot receiver intrigues me. When he appeared to be an outside receiver in the making, I thought he would get outmuscled and I’m not impressed with his route running. He has reportedly suffered from the dropsies at times, but if he can get that problem worked out, Williamson could be a speedy Roy Roundtree in the slot working against slower linebackers and safeties. As it is, I don’t see him contributing for a couple years.

Grade: B. Neither player is an immediate-impact sort, but they don’t need to be with guys like Martavious Odoms, Jeremy Gallon, Terrence Robinson, and Roy Roundtree ahead of them (in addition to Teric Jones and Kelvin Grady, who could play slot). Dileo fills a hole, and Williamson has the speed to make a few big plays before all is said and done. Ultimately, this is a position/class where Rodriguez could afford to “miss” with a player or two and not suffer greatly in the future.