Tag: J.T. Floyd

Review of 2010 Season Predictions

Denard Robinson was the star of the show in 2010

One of the reasons I started this blog a couple years ago was to record my thoughts and predictions in order to go back, see what I said, and see if I was right.  With the 2010 season completed, I thought I would go back and check out what I said prior to the year beginning.

First of all, here were my 2010 Season Predictions.

And here’s a rundown of how accurate those were:

STARTING QUARTERBACK
Prediction: I said Denard Robinson would start the opener but that Tate Forcier would have an opportunity to take most of the snaps by the end of the season.
Actual: Denard Robinson started the entire season.
Accuracy: 50%

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Denard Robinson with approximately 800 yards.
Actual: Well, I was right on the player, but wrong on the yardage.  Way wrong.  Robinson ended up wtih 1,702 yards on the ground.
Accuracy: 100%
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Roy Roundtree with 60 catches for 900 yards
Actual: Roundtree had 72 catches for 935 yards.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: Jonas Mouton
Actual: Mouton led the team with 117 tackles, beating out safety Jordan Kovacs by a slim margin.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen with 7.5 sacks
Actual: Van Bergen led the team in sacks, but it was a down year in that category – he ended up with only 4.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING INTERCEPTOR
Prediction: J.T. Floyd
Actual: Cornerback James Rogers and safety/linebacker Cam Gordon each had 3.  Floyd only had 1, but he missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: Incomplete due to Floyd’s injury

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Center David Molk and kick returner Darryl Stonum
Actual: Molk was the right choice.  However, the coaches decided to save Stonum for his offensive duties, giving the job to a couple mediocre returners instead.  With a surprisingly good season, Denard Robinson was also named to the first team by the media.
Accuracy: 33%

LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER, NON-QUARTERBACK)
Prediction: Roy Roundtree
Actual: Running back Michael Shaw scored 9 touchdowns to lead this category.  Roundtree and running back Vincent Smith were second with 7 touchdowns each.
Accuracy: 0%

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Denard Robinson
Actual: Robinson was definitely the breakout player of the year on offense.  He was in the discussion for the Heisman, was the Big Ten Player of the Year, and generally wowed Michigan fans and college football fans in general.
Accuracy: 100%

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen
Actual: Well, nobody really expected much from the defense, and that’s what they got – not much.  Van Bergen had a decent season with 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks.  But I think the real breakout star was middle linebacker Kenny Demens, who surpassed incumbent Obi Ezeh and finished third on the team with 82 tackles.
Accuracy: 0%

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Vincent Smith
Actual: I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Smith was somewhat less effective than is expected from a starting tailback at Michigan.  He finished the year averaging 4.4 yards per carry and – other than a long run against Indiana – was generally ineffective as a complementary runner to quarterback Denard Robinson.  Roundtree might be an option here because of his play in the final few games of the season, but Smith was ineffective for the majority of the season.
Accuracy: 100%

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Cameron Gordon
Actual: While Gordon was a disappointment after all the hype he received in the spring and summer, he wasn’t a complete failure.  He actually made some plays from the free safety position (3 interceptions), but he didn’t have the speed or awareness to stay there and moved to outside linebacker.  But the bigger disappointment was Obi Ezeh, the fifth-year senior middle linebacker who lost his job mid-season to redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens.  Ezeh ended the year with 58 tackles, which is exactly 24 fewer than Demens . . . and 8 fewer than J.T. Floyd, the cornerback who missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: 0%

GAME PREDICTIONS
Win against UConn
Loss to Notre Dame
Win against UMass
Win against Bowling Green
Loss to Indiana
Loss to Michigan State
Win against Iowa
Win against Penn State
Win against Illinois
Win against Purdue
Loss to Wisconsin
Loss to Ohio State

OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY:
63.9%

Mailbag: Where will Woolfolk play?



The demise of Troy Woolfolk’s ankle crippled Michigan’s defense in 2010.



Since we won’t have a chance to discuss this ad nauseum for the next eight months (sarcasm), I was wondering where you come down on Troy Woolfolk. Assuming he’s back in more or less the same shape, do you see him as a FS or CB? Last year he was playing CB seemingly out of depth concerns, but next year they’ll at the very least have a lot of bodies to throw out there, and FS would seem to be a role where his experience/leadership might be better leveraged. On the same front, do you think Marvin has the speed to play back there? We know he has the abs.

The deployment of Woolfolk has long been a hot topic with me because I don’t think a lot of people respect the role and importance of a free safety.  With a lot of coaches I know, they take their best overall athlete and put him at free safety.  That’s one reason why you see a lot of college cornerbacks who played free safety in high school, because they can make more plays from the middle of the field.  Who is Michigan’s best overall athlete (speed, size, coverage, tackling ability, and awareness) in the secondary?  I would say it’s Woolfolk.  He’s 6′ tall and 195 lbs. with high level Big Ten track speed (6.86 seconds in the 60 meters); a solid tackler; and the most experienced defensive back on the team. 

When Woolfolk moved from cornerback to free safety in the spring of 2009, his teammates nicknamed him “The Eraser” for how he cleaned up his defensive teammates’ mistakes.  When that season began, he and cornerback J.T. Floyd were burned for a long touchdown pass in the opener against Western Michigan.  After that Woolfolk was solid at free safety.  (Ed: And don’t even bother bringing up the missed tackle late in the 2009 Michigan State game.  Woolfolk suffered a sprained shoulder earlier in the game but stayed out there, only to have his bum shoulder fail him when trying to tackle Edwin Baker Larry Caper at a crucial point in the game.)  As the season wore on and the defense struggled, Michigan’s coaches moved him back to cornerback during Iowa week and kept him there for the remainder of the season.  While playing free safety, Michigan gave up 23 points per game.  Once he moved to cornerback, Michigan gave up 37 per game (minus the Delaware State drubbing).  Woolfolk was still playing cornerback during August practices in 2010 when he dislocated his ankle, despite the fact that Michigan had virtually no experience, athleticism, or depth – and not much talent – to play the free safety position behind him.

Michigan’s free safety depth chart at the beginning of 2010 looked like this:
1. Cameron Gordon (RS freshman), a 6’3″, 207 lb. converted wide receiver who many projected to be a linebacker in college
2. Jared Van Slyke (RS junior), a 6’2″, 196 lb. walk-on who transferred from Southeast Missouri State
3. Ray Vinopal (freshman), a 5’10”, 197 lb. borderline 3-star recruit straight out of high school
4. Vladimir Emilien (sophomore), a 6’1″, 204 lb. high school star who was hampered by knee problems since prior to his senior year of high school
5. Brandin Hawthorne (sophomore), a 6′, 205 lb. special teamer who most projected as a linebacker

We all know how that turned out – Gordon got burned repeatedly and became an outside linebacker, Van Slyke missed the season due to injury, Vinopal was elevated to starter, Emilien transferred, and Hawthorne contributed on special teams and at linebacker.

I can understand why some might feel that Woolfolk was needed at cornerback in 2010, because the cornerback depth chart was arguably worse than at free safety.  But Michigan suffered from horrible defensive back play all season long (outside of Jordan Kovacs), and the poor free safety play hurt Michigan more than the play of its cornerbacks.  Vinopal was an upgrade from Gordon at the deep safety position, but I’m not convinced that he’s the immediate or long-term answer.

As for what I would do with Woolfolk, I would put him back at . . . cornerback.  Yep, I said it.  I know this is a reversal of my previous stance, but it comes from a change in defensive philosophy.  Former defensive coordinator Greg Robinson ran a lot of Cover 3 out of the 3-3-5 defensive set, which meant that his cornerbacks didn’t need to be in man coverage often.  That’s why it would have been nice for Woolfolk to play centerfield, because he could have backed up his cornerbacks and made some plays on throws over the middle.

But go back and watch some film from the second half of the 2009 season.  Woolfolk was largely untested in those games, and opponents picked on then-junior cornerback Donovan Warren.  Woolfolk’s speed and hip swivel allowed him to stick closely to wide receivers in a defense that was geared more toward man coverage than the 2010 philosophy.  New defensive coordinator Greg Mattison is going to run more man coverage than we saw in 2010, which means cornerback play will be emphasized.  The Wolverines have stocked cornerbacks in the past couple classes (Cullen Christian, Courtney Avery, and Terrence Talbott; plus the load of incoming 2011 freshmen), but none are ready at this point.  Avery looks to be the best of the returning sophomores, and a redshirt junior J.T. Floyd should return in the fall from his own ankle injury.  Woolfolk could team with Floyd (whose talent leaves something to be desired but now has the experience of being the #1 guy) or Avery (who has good coverage skills but needs to get in the weight room) for a solid cornerback combination.

Who’s going to play free safety?  My guess would be either sophomore Marvin Robinson or the incumbent in Vinopal.  Vinopal won’t wow anybody with his speed or physicality, but he’s essentially a second helping of Jordan Kovacs.  I don’t think Vinopal can be your free safety if you want to have an elite defense, but he’s not a disaster, either.  Robinson is the wild card.  Last summer he was reportedly wowing fellow players with his exploits as a free safety in voluntary 7-on-7s.  When the season rolled around, he was backing up Jordan Kovacs, playing defense sparingly, and covering kicks.  There were questions about his speed coming out of high school, but as I watched him chase down some plays on special teams this year, I don’t have serious questions about his speed.  Neither Vinopal or Robinson is Ed Reed, but Robinson’s closer.

Top 10 Failures of Rich Rodriguez

1.  Losing games.  This is obvious, but it belongs on the list.  Rodriguez finished his three years at Michigan with a 15-22 record.  That winning percentage (.405) is the worst in Michigan history.

2. Losing to rivals.  Rodriguez was 0-6 against Michigan’s two biggest rivals, Ohio State and Michigan State.  If you want to include Penn State, he was 0-9.  He was outscored by a total of 317-140 in those nine games.  It’s unclear how much a couple victories against Ohio State or Michigan State might have affected Rodriguez’s tenure, but wins against Indiana and Purdue don’t carry the same weight.

3. Neutering Scott Shafer.  Shafer has proven to be a solid defensive coordinator at every other stop – Western Michigan, Stanford, and Syracuse.  The former two were prior to Shafer’s hiring at Michigan.  But Rodriguez’s other defensive assistants were proponents of the 3-3-5 and seemed to undermine his authority.  Late in the season, Rodriguez even authorized a mid-season switch of defensive schemes from the 4-3 to a 3-3-5; Michigan subsequently allowed 42 points to Purdue, a team using a converted running back to play QB.  Shafer could have been a good coordinator at Michigan and helped Rodriguez keep his job, but he was fired after the 2008 season because, well, someone’s head needed to roll after a 3-9 season.

4. Hiring Greg Robinson.  Robinson had intermittent success as a coordinator in the NFL and in college.  But just like Shafer, Robinson was a 4-3 or a 3-4 guy.  In my opinion, the defense showed some promise in 2009, when Robinson used safety Steve Brown as an outside linebacker and freshman Craig Roh as a rush linebacker.  However, Rodriguez used the 2009-10 offseason to convert to the 3-3-5, and Robinson was obviously uncomfortable and inexperienced with running that defensive set.  That resulted in 458 points allowed in 2010, an average of 35.2 points per game.

5. Not retaining holdover players from the Carr era.  Michigan was extremely short-handed in 2009, fielding a team of 69 or 70 players who were given scholarships right out of high school.  Some of those players were bound for a career of anonymity, I’m sure, but others were not.  Quarterback Ryan Mallett was vaguely in Heisman contention this season.  Justin Boren became an All-Big Ten guard at Ohio State.  Adrian Arrington chose to enter the NFL Draft (and became only a 7th round choice) a year early.  Rodriguez can’t shoulder the blame entirely for these departures, but there’s no question that a guy like Boren would have been helpful in 2008 and 2009, the former season featuring a starting guard (John Ferrara) that was a mid-season position switcher from defensive tackle.

6. Stretching too much.  The Detroit Free Press reported some trumped-up charges regarding Michigan’s practice schedule, and that sparked an NCAA investigation.  While the charges were blown out of proprtion, they were a black mark on the Michigan program and resulted in probation and some lost practice hours.  Rodriguez wasn’t responsible for everything that went wrong in the compliance department, but his staff did fail to keep track of its countable practice hours accurately and a graduate assistant watched some voluntary 7-on-7s, which is a no-no.

7. Not finding his Steve Slaton.  Pat White got a lot of hype at West Virginia, but running back Steve Slaton was almost as important as White.  And prior to White’s arrival on campus, Rodriguez used running backs like Quincy Wilson and Kay-Jay Harris to great effect.  Rodriguez never found “that guy” at Michigan, partially due to injuries and partially due to recruiting.  Therefore, the offense wasn’t as spectacular as it might have been.  The lack of a running game cost Michigan a couple games throughout his tenure.

8. Not developing top prospects.  Rodriguez seemed to have an abnormal number of high-end recruits bomb out of the program.  And it’s probably a coincidence, but most of them seemed to come from the defensive secondary.  Four 4-star players recruited by Rodriguez never made a significant positive impact at Michigan (Demar Dorsey, Boubacar Cissoko, Justin Turner, Vladimir Emilien), which resulted in five true freshman defensive backs seeing significant time in 2010.  Furthermore, arguably Michigan’s best prospect in the last few classes (William Campbell) has yet to make an impact at Michigan and just switched from nose tackle to offensive guard in the middle of the season.

9. Handing out the #1 jersey to J.T. Floyd.  Before Rodriguez ever coached a snap at Michigan, he tried to give the #1 jersey to true freshman cornerback J.T. Floyd.  He was either unaware of the jersey’s significance or chose to ignore that aspect, but it was nonetheless a mistake.  Nothing seemed to highlight the fact that Rodriguez wasn’t a “Michigan Man” more than the #1 jersey snafu, which pitted some alumni and fans against him from the start.

10.  Poor player personnel decisions.  Part of the heat falls on the assistant coaches, but Rodriguez shoulders most of this blame because he has the final say: Rodriguez didn’t put his players in their best positions to succeed.  Running backs Sam McGuffie and Vincent Smith played far too much when there were more productive and explosive backs on the roster (Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw for starters).  Obi Ezeh should have been an outside linebacker starting back in 2008; and at least according to their play on the field, Ezeh should have been replaced by Kenny Demens much earlier.  Cameron Gordon – who has linebacker speed – spent half the 2010 season playing free safety.  William Campbell spent two years toiling on the defensive line before making a permanent move to the offensive line, and he didn’t even redshirt to allow for a fifth year of eligibility.

J.T. Floyd might be broken (update)

Get used to this.

Various reports indicate that redshirt sophomore cornerback J.T. Floyd broke his ankle in practice.  If true, this would presumably eliminate him from competition for the remainder of the season.

Michigan’s depth chart at cornerback is now:

1. James Rogers, senior
2. Terrence Talbott, freshman
3. Cullen Christian, freshman
4. Courtney Avery, freshman

This is why it would be a good idea to keep around guys like Justin Turner.  Or make sure that your star defensive back recruit (Demar Dorsey) has good enough grades to get into college.  Michigan now has only 32 healthy scholarship players on the defensive side of the ball, and that includes Mike Martin, whose bum ankles don’t exactly make him healthy.

UPDATE: Rivals is reporting that X-rays of Floyd’s ankle were negative, but is likely out for at least this weekend’s game against Illinois.

Preview: Michigan at Indiana

Expect to see a lot of this: Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell picking on Michigan’s secondary.

Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is currently the #2 rushing offense in the country with 331.25 yards a game.  Meanwhile, Indiana has been giving up 177 yards a game to the likes of Western Kentucky, Akron, and Towson to rank #92 in the nation.  This is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers.  Despite the return of starting middle linebacker Tyler Replogle, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, the Wolverines should be able to have their way.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is the leading rusher in the NCAA, and the only way Indiana should be able to stop him is by bruising his knee after a 30-yard run.  One caveat, though – there’s a strong possibility that running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder; 2 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD last week) and Michael Shaw (knee; 44 carries, 256 yards, 5 TDs this year) will miss Saturday’s game.  That leaves sophomore Vincent Smith, redshirt sophomore Michael Cox, and freshman Stephen Hopkins to pick up the slack in the running back rotation.  That shouldn’t matter too much, although those two missing players are big-play threats for Michigan’s offense.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan’s quarterbacks have only been sacked once this year, and the likelihood of Indiana’s front seven catching up to Denard Robinson is low.  The Hoosiers have only mustered four sacks this season in those three games against feeble opponents.  The biggest matchup problem here is 2010 Denard Robinson vs. 2009 Denard Robinson.  If 2010 Denard Robinson keeps up his torrid pace and throws like the 16th most efficient QB in the country, then this should be a clear victory for the Wolverines once again.  I haven’t seen any evidence that Robinson will regress to 2009 form, but his performance so far this season seems too good to be true.  He’s bound to have a bad game at some point, but will it happen against Indiana?  Well . . . probably not.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
The Wolverines have done a better job of limiting big runs in 2010.  With eight men consistently in the box, Michigan’s run defense hasn’t been great (#53 in the country, 135.25 yards a game), but big plays have been rare.  Hopefully that can remain true this week, too, because leading rusher Darius Willis (46 carries, 219 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) had an 85-yard TD against Michigan in 2009, and wideout Tandon Doss had a 25-yard TD in last year’s game, too.  One of the most memorable images from the 2009 season was of Willis outrunning safety Jordan Kovacs and cornerback J.T. Floyd to the endzone.  That was not a happy moment.  The only guy who had a prayer of catching Willis from behind was safety Troy Woolfolk, who’s currently healing from a broken ankle.  Michigan’s secondary is even a bit slower this year, as Floyd and Kovacs are back but Woolfolk’s replacement is Cam Gordon, who gets outrun by 265 lb. tight ends and MAC wide receivers.  Improved play from Michigan’s linebackers – as well as the eight-man front – should be able to stall Willis a little better this year, but there will be some frustrating moments.
Advantage: Indiana

Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
This is what scares me.  Bad opponents or not, Indiana averages 304 yards a game through the air (#11 in the country).  Michigan played a couple patsies and Notre Dame, but ranks #105 in the country in pass defense (264 yards a game) and #55 in pass efficiency defense.  Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 270 yards last year, and he’s supported by some good-sized receivers with decent but not great speed.  Free safety Cameron Gordon has been a liability in pass coverage, and I expect Indiana to test him repeatedly; the Hoosiers would be silly not to try.  Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to shut down a decent passing game, and I don’t think this is the week that they’ll step up.  Michigan fans will just have to pony up and expect some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Indiana

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Ben Chappell increases the team’s passing average by throwing for 305 yards or more
• Michigan finally gets a big play out of the return game
• My preseason upset pick will be proven wrong because . . .
• . . . Michigan will win 45-31