Tag: Mailbag

Mailbag: Why the Roy Roundtree love?

RE: Roundtree: His lack of speed is evident. It basically cost us the Illinois game last year, and almost cost us the Indiana game this year. (Its never just about one play, but if he doesn’t get caught on those plays we maybe/probably get 7 extra points that don’t make these gains seem so bad) Speed and big play ability has been hailed in this blog (Shaw on O and the critiques for Gordon/Kovacs on D) but Roundtree has gotten a bit of a free pass.


Most of Roundtree’s big plays are the result of Denard and scheme. He runs, untouched, thanks to the defense’s attention being elsewhere. He’s a good player (that ND catch to get to the goalline was the best play of his career IMO) but he’s benefiting from circumstance. Odoms was pretty productive in the same role and Grady has had some big plays in the backup guy.  The slots all have a similar YPC, while Stonum, TRob, and Hemingway all have bigger YPC.


I’m not saying Roundtree should be benched, I’m just wondering why the love for Roundtree is so strong but another productive/reliable player like Smith gets killed.

First of all, let’s take a look at the facts.  Lankownia says that the slots all have similar yards per catch, and a few other wide receivers have better yards per catch.  So let’s see . . .

Roy Roundtree: 25 catches, 337 yards, 13.6 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Darryl Stonum: 15 catches, 226 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Martavious Odoms: 14 catches, 165 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Kelvin Grady: 8 catches, 105 yards, 12.1 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Junior Hemingway: 6 catches, 190 yards, 31.7 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Jeremy Gallon: 2 catches, 25 yards, 12.5 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Terrence Robinson: 1 catch, 43 yards, 43.0 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns

So if we’re just talking about yards per catch, Roundtree is fourth on the team behind Terrence Robinson, Junior Hemingway, and Darryl Stonum.  Robinson only has one catch this season, so it’s hard to tell how talented he is.  Surely his 43.0 yards per catch wouldn’t hold up throughout an entire season.

That leaves Stonum and Hemingway as legitimately more dangerous players, right?  Sure, I guess.  But those solid numbers are also a function of their positions.  In Rich Rodriguez’s offense, the outside receivers are expected to a) block, b) run intermediate routes, and c) run go routes.  It should be expected that these players will have higher yards per catch, because short routes aren’t in their arsenal.  They either catch the ball downfield, or they don’t catch the ball at all.

In the meantime, Roy Roundtree plays slot receiver.  Slot receiver in this offense is much like running back, because a large portion of Roundtree’s catches are bubble screens, which are essentially long handoffs.  Lankownia states that Martavious Odoms was pretty productive as a slot receiver, too, but these two slot receivers don’t compare.  Between 2008 and 2009, Odoms averaged 35.5 receptions, 357.5 yards, and .5 touchdowns.  In 10 career games as a slot receiver, Roundtree has 57 catches for 771 yards and 5 touchdowns.  And while Odoms only averaged 10.1 yards per reception in 2008-09, Roundtree has him beat by about 3.5 yards per catch.  That’s a pretty significant difference.

Lankownia seems to be frustrated that Roundtree has been unable to score on a couple long receptions.  He had a 76-yarder against Illinois last year on which he was caught at the 1-yard line, and there was the 74-yarder against Indiana this past weekend on which Roundtree was stopped on the 2-yard line.  I have a hard time criticizing a guy whose biggest fault seems to be that his 75-ish-yard catches don’t turn into 77-ish-yard catches.  Those plays would probably be remembered more fondly if Rich Rodriguez hadn’t chosen noted softy Carlos Brown and 5’6″ Vincent Smith, respectively, to try to punch those subsequent plays into the endzone; in case your memory is failing you right now, both Brown and Smith failed. 

Regarding Roundtree’s supposed lack of speed vs. the lack of speed for Cameron Gordon and Jordan Kovacs, I don’t see Roundtree’s footspeed as a huge problem.  Again, when a guy is averaging 13.6 yards a catch and has the ability to make 76-yard catch-and-run plays, I’m not going to complain.  Roundtree has the necessary skills to be a very successful wide receiver, even if his speed leaves a tiny bit to be desired.  The problem with Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs is that their lack of speed specifically prevents them from doing their jobs.  As safeties, their jobs presumably entail preventing the other team from making big plays and scoring.  When an Indiana running back outruns you for 85 yards (Jordan Kovacs) and when a 265 lb. tight end outruns you for 95 yards (Cam Gordon), there’s a problem with that.  And when both of those guys are playing in the same defensive backfield, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Lankownia also says that Roundtree’s production is the result of Denard’s running ability.  If that’s true, then why did Roundtree catch 32 passes for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns with Tate Forcier running the show last year?  Teams weren’t really afraid of Forcier’s running, but Roundtree still found a way to lead the team in receiving in scant playing time.

The premise for Lankownia’s statement about Smithis questionable, in my opinion.  It presumes that Vincent Smith is a productive running back.  As I noted in a recent post, Smith is the 8th-best running back (by yards per carry) in the Big Ten + Notre Dame.  Those mediocre numbers are in conjunction with a Heisman candidate at quarterback and a good offensive line.  Even if Smith is the best running back Michigan has to offer – which I obviously don’t believe – that doesn’t mean he’s productive.  Meanwhile, Roundtree consistently finds himself in open areas of the field, whether the quarterback is Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson.  I don’t know what it is, but Roundtree has that “It Factor” that some guys just happen to have.  He catches the ball, makes an occasional big play, blocks well (watch Brandon Minor’s TD run against Purdue in 2009), makes people miss, and most importantly, he gets open.

I can’t make this clear enough, but it’s worth repeating: I don’t hate Vincent Smith.  I don’t have a personal grudge against him.  I’m not against short backs (I loved to watch Darren Sproles when he was at Kansas State), I’m not against dreadlocks (Denard Robinson has quickly grown into one of my favorite players), and it’s not about recruiting rankings (Michael Cox wasn’t a highly touted recruit, either).  I quite simply believe that Smith shouldn’t be getting the most carries for this team.  And while Smith has been just so-so in his two seasons, Roundtree has been somewhere between above average and spectacular.

Mailbag: DeAnthony Arnett

You don’t seem very high (or at least high as many Michigan fanatics) on
DeAnthony Arnett. Any particular reasons why?

There are a few reasons why I’m not particularly high on Arnett, although there’s a lot of personal opinion involved.

First of all, I think he’s a good player. I can’t argue that he’s not. He has some talent.

However, many people in Michigan think he could be a make-or-break type of recruit for Rich Rodriguez, and I don’t see that. He’s an outside receiver and Rich Rodriguez puts an emphasis on getting the ball to his quarterback, his running backs, and his slot receivers. On a team that lacks big-play speed at the outside receiver position (except junior Darryl Stonum), Michigan just finished a recruiting cycle in which they secured commitments from two slow-ish receivers (Jeremy Jackson and Ricardo Miller) and another who isn’t exactly a blazer (Jerald Robinson). Furthermore, Michigan recently added 6’4″ Shawn Conway for the class of 2011. So if Rodriguez is intent on bringing in a bunch of tall receivers with mediocre speed (all of whom earned early offers and committed early in the process, so you know Rodriguez really wanted them), why would a 5’11” receiver be a necessity?

Furthermore, I’m not sold on Arnett’s elusiveness. He does a good job of adjusting to the ball in the air, but he’s not exactly a huge home run threat with the ball in his hands. He cuts once and goes, usually only to be caught after another few yards. Can he get open, catch the ball, and gain a few yards after the catch? Sure. Is he the reincarnation of, say, Desean Jackson? No.

Also, I’m not a fan of what I’ve seen from Arnett in the media. This is where the biggest slice of personal opinion shows itself, but he seems like a bit of a prima donna in the making. I like my players sans ego, thank you very much. Every high school star believes he’s a notch above the rest, but Arnett seems to lack the humility that I’ve seen a few recent beloved Michigan commits show. There’s a reason Ricardo Miller and Devin Gardner have endeared themselves to Michigan fans so quickly; we like blue-collar athletes with good-natured competitiveness. And there’s a reason some Michigan fans (including myself) were upset when Boubacar Cissoko waved demonstratively against Notre Dame, despite the fact that he was beaten repeatedly.

I don’t think Arnett will be a bad player. He has above average skills for a college recruit. But I don’t necessarily want him to be a Wolverine, and I certainly don’t think his commitment would make or break this recruiting class. I will be neither surprised nor dismayed when he signs elsewhere next February.

Image via detnews.com

Mailbag: Regional connections in scouting

Being fairly new to paying attention to recruiting, what can you tell me about the correlation between football rich recruiting areas and the connections of Michigan assistant coaches and scouts? It seems obvious someone on the staff knows Florida.

Bobo from Punxsutawney, PA

Coaches are assigned specific recruiting areas, especially talent-rich states. For example, Tony Gibson is a born-and-bred West Virginian, which is in close proximity to Pennsylvania and Ohio. Therefore, Gibson’s recruiting base centers in those three states. It’s important for coaches to make personal connections with high school coaches, staff, and kids, so typically a coach will maintain the same recruiting area from year to year, even when they change jobs, if possible. If a Big Ten coach who recruits Illinois gets hired in the SEC, his most fruitful recruiting ground could very well be Illinois. But there’s no need to heavily recruit the state of Utah, for example, so a coach who’s assigned to California would likely handle any stray talents who find themselves lost in the middle of the Beehive State.

If you visit Mgoblue.com’s coaches page, you can find biographical information for each coach. Michigan’s ace Florida recruiter, quarterbacks coach Rod Smith, is from West Virginia, but he spent six years coaching at South Florida. The go-to guy for Texas and Louisiana recruits, running backs coach Fred Jackson, was born in Baton Rouge, LA, and attended Jackson State. Bruce Tall is a native Ohioan. The coaches are from various places and have coached at myriad institutions, but it’s a pretty good assumption that they tend to recruit near their hometowns or where they’ve spent considerable time. For example, it’s a little bit odd that Greg Frey recruits Illinois, since he’s from Florida, played at Florida State, and coached at places like South Florida and West Virginia; he must have drawn the short end of the stick, and it may not be a coincidence that no Illinois players have committed to Michigan since Frey’s arrival.

Below is my best effort – okay, maybe not my best effort, but I don’t get paid for this – to define assigned geographic recruiting areas. (The state of Michigan is recruited by almost all the coaches.)

Bruce Tall
Tony Dews
Tony Gibson
Greg Frey
Fred Jackson
Rod Smith

The map is a very general outline of the coaches’ recruiting areas and should not be taken as gospel. For example, several coaches recruit in Florida and, as mentioned above, Tony Gibson recruits some in Ohio. It would be impossible to create a map that specifically defines each coach’s recruiting area, in part because sometimes personalities or positions are matched with recruits. For example, Florida juggernaut Rod Smith was the main recruiter for quarterback Tate Forcier, who hails from Whale’s Vagina, California.

Mailbag: 2011 RB and DT Recruiting

Jacksonville running back Andrew Buie

Out of the RB’s we have already offered in 2011, who do you think has the most potential in our offense? How many DT’s will we sign and which DT has shown a lot of interest in Michigan.
Sincerely,
Anonymous from Maldives

Unlike certain blogs out there, I won’t make up mailbag questions. I’ll use the mailbag posts to answer questions posed to me in e-mail. I’ll also place some questions here that are asked in comments sections that might interest a broad range of people.

However, I will make up locations for those e-mailers.

Michigan has offered six superbacks so far: Demetrius Hart, Demetrius Williams, Allan Wasonga, Andrew Buie, Jarrell Oliver, and Justice Hayes. In my opinion, the one who projects best to Michigan’s offense is Andrew Buie. Buie is from Trinity Christian Academy in Jacksonville, FL, the same high school that 2010 recruit Rashad Knight attended. The competition at TCA is questionable, but Buie’s 5’9″, 188 lbs. and has very good speed and acceleration. He also has good vision and gets upfield rather than dancing, which is necessary for a good read option runner.

As far as defensive tackles go, I think Michigan will take two in the class of 2011 – one nose tackle and one defensive tackle. Ryan Van Bergen will likely move to defensive end, so current tackles with eligibility remaining after 2010 will be Mike Martin, William Campbell, Richard Ash, and Terry Talbott. By the time 2011 recruits get on campus, Martin will be a senior and Campbell will be a junior, so it’s imperative that Michigan gets some more depth on the interior defensive line. Unfortunately, none of the four defensive tackles Michigan has offered seem likely to be Wolverines. Desmond Jackson already committed to Texas, and Timmy Jernigan is considered a lock to attend Florida. That leaves Vincent Croce (Olney, MD) and Kevin Williams (Holland, OH). Croce plans to visit for Michigan’s next Junior Day on February 20, but I’m not sold on Rodriguez’s ability to recruit the Atlantic region. Williams seems the most likely and also plans to visit on February 20, but I have a feeling that Williams will head south.