Tag: Ryan Van Bergen

Review: 2009 Season Predictions

Jordan Kovacs went from an afterthought to a Freshman All-American.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to record my predictions, in order to look back on them at a later date. Well, that date has come. It’s a few weeks prior to the 2010 season, and I can’t help but think back on how I did last year (2009 Season Predictions here). I didn’t do too badly, but there were a couple surprises.

Starting Quarterback
Last year’s pick: Tate Forcier. I said he’d start every game.

I should have picked . . . Forcier. He started every game.

Leading Rusher
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor. I said he’d end the season with about 900 yards.

I should have picked . . . Minor. Minor only had 502 yards, but he missed three full games (plus parts of several others) due to injuries.

Leading Receiver
Last year’s pick: Greg Mathews. I said he’d catch 50 balls for 650 yards.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Mathews only caught 29 passes as the coaching staff continues to de-emphasize outside wide receivers. The leading receiver was slot receiver Roundtree, who caught 32 balls for 434 yards.

Leading Tackler
Last year’s pick: Obi Ezeh.

I should have picked . . . Steve Brown. Middle linebacker Ezeh fought through a back injury and inconsistency to finish third with 69 tackles. SAM linebacker Brown brought down 80 ballcarriers, while redshirt freshman safety Jordan Kovacs made 75 stops.

Leading Sacker
Last year’s pick: Brandon Graham. I said he’d finish at 10 sacks.

I should have picked . . . Graham. The obvious choice was obvious. Graham ended the season with 10.5 sacks, or 1/2 more of a sack than I thought. Damn half sacks!

Leading Interceptor
Last year’s pick: Donovan Warren. I said he’d snatch 3 errant passes.

I should have picked . . . Warren. He actually picked off 4 passes, so once again, I overestimated. If he had only picked off 3 like I told him to, then maybe he’d have stuck around for an extra year! Then again, that pick-off against Indiana really saved Michigan’s ass.

All-Big Ten First Team
Last year’s picks: Brandon Graham and Zoltan Mesko.

I should have picked . . . Graham, Mesko, and Donovan Warren. Graham and Mesko were voted All-Big Ten first team by the coaches. Those two plus Warren were chosen for the first team by the media. Two for three isn’t bad.

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor.

I should have picked . . . Minor. He scored 8 rushing touchdowns (48 points). The next closest scorer was Carlos Brown with 5 touchdowns (30 points). Placekicker Jason Olesnavage scored 75 points, but kickers are almost always the leading scorers, which is why I didn’t allow myself to pick him.

Breakout Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Junior Hemingway.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Hemingway only caught 16 passes, while Roundtree emerged as the go-to receiver late in the season and perhaps the front-runner for the next wearer of the coveted #1 jersey.

Breakout Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Troy Woolfolk.

I should have picked . . . Jordan Kovacs. I don’t feel bad about the Woolfolk pick. He made 46 tackles and I think he surprised a lot of people with his solid play at both deep safety and cornerback. Despite switching to cornerback halfway through the season, it seemed that opponents targeted Donovan Warren more often than Woolfolk. Still, Kovacs was a Freshman All-American, started eight games, and finished second on the team with 75 tackles.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Kevin Koger. I said he wouldn’t catch any more than 15 passes.

I should have picked . . . I’m not sure. Greg Mathews? Maybe Koger was the right pick. I said he’d catch 15 passes or less, and the spiteful bastard caught 16 just to piss me off. Regardless, he dropped a lot of passes in the second half of the season and got phased out of the offense a bit. It’s arguable who was the most disappointing, but I’m satisfied with my pick. I think most Michigan fans expected more production from the tight end spot.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Ryan Van Bergen. I said he’d end up with about 20 tackles and a couple sacks.

I should have picked . . . Obi Ezeh. Maybe Jonas Mouton. Those inside linebackers made a lot of Michigan fans sad. It might be a little harsh to put Ezeh here, since he had a bad back and everything. But it’s one of the two. Both were benched at various points, and Mouton had the same number of tackles as cornerback Donovan Warren. That’s not good. Meanwhile, Van Bergen basically doubled my predictions – he had 40 tackles and 5 sacks. Good for him.

In Summary . . .
Well, the results are a mixed bag. Out of twelve predictions, six of them were spot-on. That’s 50% (I’d like to thank my 4th grade teacher for the math skills). Technically, I guess I should get a slight deduction for only picking Graham and Mesko as All-Big Ten First Team; the coaches agreed with me, but the media added Warren. That’s 49%. But I think I should get a few points for Koger as Most Disappointing Offensive Player, as well as a slight bump for Woolfolk as Breakout Defensive Player. That puts me at right around 55%.

So . . . 55% of the time, I’m right every time. Perhaps I should not be trusted.

Go blue!

Explanation of the Countdown

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Brandon Graham was Michigan’s MVP last year.

As I started the 2010 Season Countdown, I assumed (wrongly) that people would remember the series from last year. But after fielding several questions on the topic, I realized that . . . well . . . nobody really read my blog last year. This still isn’t an extremely popular destination, but hey, 1,700+ hits for a full-time teacher and coach isn’t bad.

On to the explanation . . .

The countdown is designed to highlight each player and offer some opinions and analysis on each one. They are listed in order of “Least Important” to “Most Important” for the 2010 season. In other words, Christian Pace is at the bottom of the list because he’s the most likely to redshirt. Therefore, his impact on Michigan’s 2010 performance will be almost nil.

Last year’s 2009 Season Countdown had the following players in the top five:

1. Brandon Graham
2. Tate Forcier
3. Donovan Warren
4. Obi Ezeh
5. Brandon Minor

Now imagine if Brandon Graham had been lost to injury – Michigan would have lost 10.5 sacks and its defensive leader, and perhaps former walk-on Will Heininger would have drawn into the lineup. More likely, Ryan Van Bergen would have moved to defensive end full-time and Renaldo Sagesse, Greg Banks, or Will Campbell would have played 3-tech defensive tackle. Yeah . . . trading in Brandon Graham for Renaldo Sagesse – albeit a serviceable player – scares me, too.

Think about this: if Tate Forcier had been lost to injury and Denard Robinson had made the same number of passing attempts (281), Robinson’s 12% interception rate would have translated to approximately thirty-three (33!) interceptions. Michigan fans would have been clamoring for Nick Sheridan.

Without Warren (and Boubacar Cissoko, who got booted off the team), imagine potentially having J.T. Floyd and Teric Jones as your starting corners. Yikes!

It turns out, Obi Ezeh was injured in 2009, which partly caused him to have his worst season as a starter. In his stead, Michigan played redshirt sophomore, 206 lb. Kevin Leach.

I probably overestimated Brandon Minor’s importance to the team, since there were other running backs to pick up the slack. I still maintain that Minor was Michigan’s best back for the past two seasons, but the drop-off between Minor and Carlos Brown isn’t nearly as significant as, say, Brandon Graham to Will Heininger or from Forcier’s 13 interceptions to Robinson’s estimated 33 picks.

So I’m presenting the 2010 Season Countdown. On average, one player will be revealed each day until the beginning of the season, and the #1 guy is – in my estimation – the most important player for Michigan’s success this coming season.

2010 Countdown: #63 Steve Watson

Name: Steve Watson
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 257 lbs.
High school: Mullen High School in Cherry Hills Village, CO
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #81
Last year: I ranked Watson #64 and said he’d contribute on special teams and see spot duty on defense. He was mainly a special teams player and made 5 tackles.

Having been buried on the depth chart behind Kevin Koger, Martell Webb, and Brandon Moore, Watson switched to defense during the spring of 2009. Greg Robinson was a new defensive coordinator then and needed a few players to play the defensive end/outside linebacker hybrid role that was eventually locked down by freshman Craig Roh. Brandon Herron was Roh’s primary backup, and Watson settled for mop-up duty against teams like Delaware State and Illinois. He finished the season with 5 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 pass breakup as the third-string OLB. He was also a part-time contributor on special teams, but only against the B-list teams on Michigan’s roster.

For spring of 2010, Watson switched roles again to 5-tech defensive end. Assuming no further position changes, he’ll be playing exclusively with his hand on the ground. Despite the position change, Watson will probably still be no higher than third on the depth chart. The starter will likely be Ryan Van Bergen with Anthony Lalota as the primary backup. A freshman like Jibreel Black could also work himself into the mix. Buried on the depth chart at yet another position, I expect 2010 to be Watson’s final campaign as a Wolverine. He probably won’t be offered a fifth year of eligibility by the coaching staff.

Prediction for 2010: Special teams contributor, spot duty on defense

2010 Countdown: #75 Jibreel Black

Name: Jibreel Black
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 253 lbs.
High school: Wyoming High School in Cincinnati, OH
Position: Defensive end
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: N/A
Prediction for 2010: Redshirt

With as much certainty as an outside observer can have, I believe the players listed below Black will redshirt. That includes Christian Pace, Davion Rogers, DJ Williamson, Conelius Jones, Jordan Paskorz, Jake Ryan, Ray Vinopal, Drew Dileo, and Austin White. Their positions and readiness make that a near certainty, in my opinion.

But now we get into the murkier depths of the roster, the guys who have an outside chance to play this season due to a starter or rotation player getting injured, or perhaps due to the coaches wanting to get a guy some reps in preparation for 2011. That’s where Jibreel Black fits. Ideally, he’d probably redshirt in 2010, giving him a chance to add some weight and get stronger. He’s shorter than a prototypical defensive end at only 6’2″, so he’s going to need to make up for that deficiency in the strength department. But I’ve already compared him to Brandon Graham, so I think the kid’s got some talent.

The starter at defensive end will likely be Ryan Van Bergen, who has proven to be pretty durable so far in his career. He’s also pretty good. His rotational backup might be Anthony Lalota, but if Van Bergen does suffer an injury, I’d expect Greg Banks to flip to 5-tech DE with Renaldo Sagesse moving in at Banks’s old spot. That’s a big, fancy way of saying that I hope Van Bergen doesn’t get injured.

Meanwhile, Black is probably the most college-ready DE in the class, and he’s got a chance to contribute. With Banks and Sagesse departing after this season, the coaches might want to season a younger guy with some reps against UMass or Bowling Green. Ultimately, I don’t think Michigan will need Black on the field this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him playing in non-critical moments.

Chris Rock, Wolverine

St. Francis DeSales defensive end Chris Rock

Six-foot-five, 250 lb. defensive end Chris Rock committed to Michigan on Friday. He’s the first BBQ at the Big House attendee to commit this year, having visited Michigan for a cookout the previous weekend. While Rock hails from the nether reaches of Hell (a.k.a. Columbus, OH), he didn’t have an offer from Ohio State. However, he did choose the Wolverines over offers from Boston College, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Stanford, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

St. Francis DeSales is a private school of about 1,000 students, and the football team finished second in the state during Rock’s junior year. As a sophomore, Rock had 60 tackles and 16 sacks. He nearly equalled those stats as a junior, racking up 15 sacks in the follow-up effort.

Judging from Rock’s offer list, he looks like possibly a low 4-star prospect. Right now he’s a 3-star to Scout and ranked the #49 defensive end, although rankings this early are questionable. Nonetheless, Rivals will be releasing its rankings later this week, so we’ll see where he starts off in their listings.

To be honest, I’m not enamored with Rock. A large part of that is due to the fact that his highlight film is full of offensive linemen completely forgetting to block him. I find it difficult to get excited about a player who accrues a bunch of sacks while barreling unimpeded into the offensive backfield.

That being said, DeSales has produced a significant number of FBS prospects in the past few years. From 2008-2010, the school churned out seven FBS players, five of whom went to Big Ten schools; that includes Patrick Omameh from the class of 2008, a current guard for Michigan. When teams gameplan for the junior and senior playmakers on a team, that gives the unknown underclassmen a chance to shine. That might explain why Rock goes untouched in probably 75% of his highlights.

My biggest issue with Rock is that he stands straight up on the snap. He’s able to push around weaker players when playing so high, but if he tried to push around a 310 lb. Big Ten tackle like that, Rock would get tossed around like a rag doll. He doesn’t use his hands well to shed blocks, and he also finds himself losing contain a little too frequently. He has decent speed for a 250-pounder, so he can make up for his poor fundamentals at times. But some of his habits are less than ideal.

Rock is a strongside defensive end prospect. He reminds me a little bit of Anthony Lalota, another raw defensive end that Michigan recruited in the class of 2009. Whereas Lalota will remain at defensive end for the remainder of his career (in my opinion), I think Rock could grow into a 3-tech defensive tackle, much like what Ryan Van Bergen played in 2009. I think Rock’s upside is rather low. He could be a decent college starter, but he doesn’t have the instincts or athleticism to be an elite player for Michigan. This is a solid commitment because Michigan needs defensive linemen, but I don’t think Rock is a game-changer.

TTB Rating: 58