Tag: Ryan Van Bergen

Review of 2010 Season Predictions

Denard Robinson was the star of the show in 2010

One of the reasons I started this blog a couple years ago was to record my thoughts and predictions in order to go back, see what I said, and see if I was right.  With the 2010 season completed, I thought I would go back and check out what I said prior to the year beginning.

First of all, here were my 2010 Season Predictions.

And here’s a rundown of how accurate those were:

STARTING QUARTERBACK
Prediction: I said Denard Robinson would start the opener but that Tate Forcier would have an opportunity to take most of the snaps by the end of the season.
Actual: Denard Robinson started the entire season.
Accuracy: 50%

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Denard Robinson with approximately 800 yards.
Actual: Well, I was right on the player, but wrong on the yardage.  Way wrong.  Robinson ended up wtih 1,702 yards on the ground.
Accuracy: 100%
LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Roy Roundtree with 60 catches for 900 yards
Actual: Roundtree had 72 catches for 935 yards.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: Jonas Mouton
Actual: Mouton led the team with 117 tackles, beating out safety Jordan Kovacs by a slim margin.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen with 7.5 sacks
Actual: Van Bergen led the team in sacks, but it was a down year in that category – he ended up with only 4.
Accuracy: 100%

LEADING INTERCEPTOR
Prediction: J.T. Floyd
Actual: Cornerback James Rogers and safety/linebacker Cam Gordon each had 3.  Floyd only had 1, but he missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: Incomplete due to Floyd’s injury

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Center David Molk and kick returner Darryl Stonum
Actual: Molk was the right choice.  However, the coaches decided to save Stonum for his offensive duties, giving the job to a couple mediocre returners instead.  With a surprisingly good season, Denard Robinson was also named to the first team by the media.
Accuracy: 33%

LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER, NON-QUARTERBACK)
Prediction: Roy Roundtree
Actual: Running back Michael Shaw scored 9 touchdowns to lead this category.  Roundtree and running back Vincent Smith were second with 7 touchdowns each.
Accuracy: 0%

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Denard Robinson
Actual: Robinson was definitely the breakout player of the year on offense.  He was in the discussion for the Heisman, was the Big Ten Player of the Year, and generally wowed Michigan fans and college football fans in general.
Accuracy: 100%

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Ryan Van Bergen
Actual: Well, nobody really expected much from the defense, and that’s what they got – not much.  Van Bergen had a decent season with 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks.  But I think the real breakout star was middle linebacker Kenny Demens, who surpassed incumbent Obi Ezeh and finished third on the team with 82 tackles.
Accuracy: 0%

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Vincent Smith
Actual: I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Smith was somewhat less effective than is expected from a starting tailback at Michigan.  He finished the year averaging 4.4 yards per carry and – other than a long run against Indiana – was generally ineffective as a complementary runner to quarterback Denard Robinson.  Roundtree might be an option here because of his play in the final few games of the season, but Smith was ineffective for the majority of the season.
Accuracy: 100%

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Cameron Gordon
Actual: While Gordon was a disappointment after all the hype he received in the spring and summer, he wasn’t a complete failure.  He actually made some plays from the free safety position (3 interceptions), but he didn’t have the speed or awareness to stay there and moved to outside linebacker.  But the bigger disappointment was Obi Ezeh, the fifth-year senior middle linebacker who lost his job mid-season to redshirt sophomore Kenny Demens.  Ezeh ended the year with 58 tackles, which is exactly 24 fewer than Demens . . . and 8 fewer than J.T. Floyd, the cornerback who missed half the season with a broken ankle.
Accuracy: 0%

GAME PREDICTIONS
Win against UConn
Loss to Notre Dame
Win against UMass
Win against Bowling Green
Loss to Indiana
Loss to Michigan State
Win against Iowa
Win against Penn State
Win against Illinois
Win against Purdue
Loss to Wisconsin
Loss to Ohio State

OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY:
63.9%

Michigan vs. UMass Awards

Michael Shaw

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Taylor Lewan.  Lewan entered the game in the second half, filling in at left tackle for Mark Huyge.  Lewan played extremely well and had a few pancake blocks.  The thing I liked most about him coming out of high school was that he blocks through the echo of the whistle, and that was evident on Saturday.  I didn’t see a single missed blocking assignment, unless you count a sweep to the offense’s right and the OLB blitzed around the edge.  Lewan didn’t touch him, but the blitz took the defender out of the play, anyway.  This is Michigan’s left tackle of the future, and the future might not be too distant.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Vincent Smith.  He’s averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and that’s including his 11 carries for 42 yards (3.8 ypc) against an overmatched UMass defense.  Despite the fact that Michael Shaw had runs of 34 and 50 yards (Smith’s season long is 13), the diminutive Smith got only one less carry (11) than Shaw (12).  I honestly don’t understand Rich Rodriguez’s insistence on getting Smith so many snaps.  He’s not a productive running back.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . an edge pass rusher.  Michigan is not adjusting well to the 3-3-5 defense.  Despite having two potentially solid replacements for Brandon Graham at the 5-tech defensive end spot (Ryan Van Bergen, Craig Roh), Rich Rodriguez and his staff have been employing a 3-3-5 stack most of the time.  The Wolverines have two sacks this season (one from Thomas Gordon, one from Mike Martin) against teams that have thrown the ball a great deal (111 pass attempts in 3 games, an average of 37 per game).  The competition level will only get better once Michigan reaches the Big Ten season, and I’m guessing Big Ten quarterbacks are licking their chops.  Big yards without getting pressured?  Yes, please!

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Jordan Kovacs.  Before you get bent out of shape, read the rest of the entry.  It’s not that Kovacs is doing a bad job, and I don’t want him benched permanently.  But if Marvin Robinson is healthy this week against Bowling Green (he missed the UMass game due to a shoulder injury), then I’d like to see what Robinson can do on defense.  I don’t think Kovacs is the long-term answer at Bandit, although he’s probably the best guy for the position right now.  Kovacs could be part of a decent defense, but if Michigan’s going to be an elite team in the next couple years, I think he needs to be replaced.

MVP of the UMass game . . . Michael Shaw.  One reason that Shaw was able to run for 126 yards on 12 carries and score 3 touchdowns was because of the threat of Denard Robinson.  So while it’s tempting to pick Robinson again, Shaw was the most explosive player on the field Saturday.  He had a 34-yard touchdown run and added a 50-yarder.  Even if you take those two big runs out of the equation, Shaw had 42 yards on 10 carries, which is still a solid average of 4.2 yards per carry.

Unsung Hero of the UMass game . . . Kelvin Grady.  He earned a lot of hype during fall practices, but he hadn’t done much this year until Saturday.  Grady had a nice over-the-shoulder catch of 43 yards and a 15-yard run on an end around.  Grady’s not going to get the ball a ton, but he has the ability to make big plays because of all the other homerun threats around him.

Anthony Lalota, ex-Wolverine

Buh-bye.

Defensive end Anthony Lalota has been released from his scholarship to the University of Michigan. The 6’4″, 270 lb. lineman committed to Michigan from The Hun School in Princeton, New Jersey. Buried on the depth chart behind redshirt junior Ryan Van Bergen, true freshman Jibreel Black, and converted tight end Steve Watson, the redshirt freshman apparently gave up on seeing the field and asked for his release.

Lalota came to Michigan as part of the Class of 2009. He was a late addition to the football program at The Hun School, having only started to play as a junior. He played offensive tackle and defensive end in high school, and Scout had him ranked as a 4-star offensive tackle prospect at one point. Despite being listed by recruiting sites as big as 6’6″ and 260 lbs., he measured in at 6’4″, 235 lbs. prior to his true freshman season. He added 35 lbs. in between his freshman season and redshirt freshman season, but the writing appeared to be on the wall by the time the 2010 season rolled around. When you’re fourth on the depth chart at a position lacking depth, it would be frustrating.

For what it’s worth, I’ve never been a fan of Lalota’s game. My analysis of him after his participation in the Army All-American Game in January 2009 went like this:

I am not very impressed by Lalota’s skills. He’s a recent convert to football, having not played until his junior year of high school. So significant improvement may still be forthcoming. However, he is very raw as a defensive end and usually tries to beat offensive tackles by bull rushing with 100% effort. I love the effort and that hard work could turn him into a very good player, but at 6’6″ and 260 lbs., he reminds me of former Michigan player Pat Massey, which is generally not considered to be a good thing by Michigan fans. As far as I saw, he didn’t make any plays in the game, and I wouldn’t expect him to play significantly at Michigan for at least a couple years.

Lalota was very mechanical coming out of high school. He played defensive end like an offensive tackle. His lateral mobility was virtually nil, and he lacked great football instincts. I actually would have liked him more for a 3-3-5 defense than I did for the 4-front that Michigan employed at the time he was recruited. Regardless, he seemed overrated to me as a high 4-star prospect. Like many football recruits, the services looked at his size (which was obviously exaggerated) and his decent straight-line speed and said, “Hey, this guy is going to be good.” They just didn’t account for the fact that football is a sport played by athletes, not just big dudes who happen to not be crippled.

As for the impact of Lalota’s transfer on the team itself, it once again hurts Michigan’s APR (just like Vladimir Emilien . . . and Austin White . . . and Justin Turner . . . and numerous others). The number of guys transferring out of the University of Michigan borders on ridiculous. No, wait – it is ridiculous. Michigan was nearing the danger line prior to the season. Since then, four additional guys have left the team. I once again have to point out that I’m not impressed with Rich Rodriguez’s retention rate. Many of these guys don’t seem to be giving the football program much of a shot at Michigan before bailing out. I understand being frustrated about playing time, but he’s a redshirt freshman. What liar told him he would be able to start for a Big Ten team by his second year in college? Whoever that liar is, I hope Anthony Lalota doesn’t trust him anymore.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s Class of 2011 just went from 18 to a size of 19. Guys like Anthony Zettel, Deion Barnes, James Adeyanju, and Ray Drew could take Lalota’s spot. Michigan already needed one defensive end in the class. Since both Van Bergen and Watson are redshirt juniors (and Watson might be a longshot to return for a fifth year), I expect Michigan to take at least one more defensive end in the class, maybe two.

2010 Season Predictions

Starting quarterback: Denard Robinson will start the season opener against UConn on Saturday. However, I think his lack of passing ability (although improved) will give Tate Forcier a chance to take the majority of the snaps by the end of the season.

Leading rusher: Denard Robinson. Even if he’s not the starting quarterback for the entire season, he should get enough carries – and enough big plays – to be Michigan’s leading rusher. The team also lacks a clear #1 running back, which means handoffs will be shared amongst Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins. My guess is Robinson will end up with around 800 yards rushing.

Leading receiver: Roy Roundtree. The quarterbacks like to target the slot receivers, and Roundtree caught 30 balls over the last four games last season. The guess here is that Roundtree gets 60 catches and 900 yards this season.

Leading tackler: Last year’s leading tackler was Steve Brown, who played something similar to the Spur position. That will be manned by freshman Carvin Johnson, who will almost surely suffer from brain farts or injury this year and therefore disqualify himself. The second-leading tackler was Jordan Kovacs, who will probably lose some time to freshman Marvin Robinson. The third leading tackler was middle linebacker Obi Ezeh, who seems to have lost his job to a converted fullback. So I’m going with last year’s fourth-leading tackler: Jonas Mouton.

Leading sacker: Redshirt junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen will edge out sophomore linebacker Craig Roh by the slightest of margins, 7.5 to 7.

Leading interceptor: I don’t expect Michigan to grab a lot of picks this year. The Wolverines will probably have a few guys pick off two passes each, and those will be J.T. Floyd, Jordan Kovacs, and Jonas Mouton. But because I don’t want to be wishy-washy like Michael Wilbon, I’ll pick Floyd.

All Big Ten 1st team: Center David Molk. Kick returner Darryl Stonum.

Leading scorer (non-QB, non-kicker): Roy Roundtree.

Breakout offensive player: I don’t see anyone having a monstrous season, and Roy Roundtree was probably 2009’s breakout player, or else I would pick him. So I’ll go with Denard Robinson, who will hopefully be able to pass the ball well enough to qualify in this category.

Breakout defensive player: Ugh, this defense looks bad. I guess I’ll go with Ryan Van Bergen. He won’t be a superstar and he won’t approximate Brandon Graham, but he should be able to get a consistent pass rush.

Most disappointing offensive player: Despite being listed as a co-starter, I think Vincent Smith will be somewhat of a disappointment this year. A lot of people thought he was the heir apparent last year when he seemed to be the primary backup for the senior running backs, but I think he’s just mediocre. He might be consistent, but spectacular plays are outside his reach, in my opinion.

Most disappointing defensive player: Cameron Gordon can’t possibly live up to all the offseason hype, although I hope he can. He’s still going to be raw, and I think he’ll make some frustrating plays. This is a hard category to pick, because not much is expected from anyone on defense, really.

The Big Finish
Sept. 4 vs. Connecticut: WIN. Connecticut is a little banged up, and they will be able to run the ball. But Rodriguez was undefeated against UConn in the Big East, and most of those games were blowouts. He knows how to defeat a Randy Edsall-coached team.

Sept. 11 at Notre Dame: LOSS. Dayne Crist and Michael Floyd will dispatch an overmatched secondary in a shootout.

Sept. 18 vs. UMass: WIN. Something approximating the 63-6 trouncing of Delaware State last year is likely.

Sept. 25 vs. Bowling Green: WIN. Michigan’s high-powered offense and superior athletes should be able to roll past BGSU, and the Falcons lost some significant firepower from last season.

Oct. 2 @ Indiana: LOSS. Remember when I said that Troy Woolfolk’s injury would cost Michigan a game at some point? It’s this one right here.

Oct. 9 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. I’d like to pick a win here, but Michigan isn’t good enough to start 5-1, and Kirk Cousins should be able to throw the ball all over the field.

Oct. 16 vs. Iowa: WIN. Michigan barely lost at Iowa last season, and the Wolverines match up with the Hawkeyes better this year. Iowa has a stout defense, but Michigan’s offense has improved.

Oct. 30 @ Penn State: WIN. Penn State’s quarterback position is in flux, the offensive line is weakened, and the defense suffered from some big losses. They’ll get a bunch of rushing yards, but Michigan should be able to pull it out in the end.

Nov. 6 vs. Illinois: WIN. Illinois sucks. They’ll be able to run the ball, but they won’t score enough.

Nov. 13 @ Purdue: WIN. Purdue has a solid defense and they’ve beaten Michigan a couple years in a row . . . I just can’t imagine the Boilermakers running the streak to three.

Nov. 20 vs. Wisconsin: LOSS. Wisconsin looks good this year. Even though I think they’ll fall short of many people’s expectations, they’re probably better than the Wolverines.

Nov. 27 @ Ohio State: LOSS. Ugh.

Final record: 7-5.

2010 Countdown: #6 Ryan Van Bergen

Name: Ryan Van Bergen
Height: 6’6″
Weight: 283 lbs.
High school: Whitehall High School in Whitehall, MI
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #53
Last year: I ranked Van Bergen #18 and said he’d have about 20 tackles and 2 sacks. He finished the season with 40 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and 4 pass breakups.

As a redshirt freshman in 2008, there was a fair amount of hype about Van Bergen. He apparently had a motor that never stopped, was quick off the ball, blah blah blah, and he recorded 13 tackles. I wasn’t that impressed. Then he moved to defensive tackle for 2009, and I thought, Great, a 6’6″ defensive tackle who’s under 280 lbs. getting blown off the ball is just what we need. Except he didn’t get blown off the ball all the time. He actually held his ground for the most part, although that’s partially due to the fact that he was playing on a line with Brandon Graham and Mike Martin, both of whom deserve to be double-teamed most of the time.

Now Van Bergen is back to defensive end, and he’s taking the place of the aforementioned Graham. Graham was a superior athlete who also happened to develop a non-stop motor by his senior year. I don’t expect the same kind of production from #53 as Michigan got from #55 for the past couple years, but Van Bergen’s numbers and impact should improve slightly. And frankly, for this defense to be successful, Van Bergen and Co. on the defensive line are going to have to take their game to the next level. The secondary is inexperienced, and the linebackers are questionable. Van Bergen should be able to hold his own in the run game, and another year of training and coaching should have improved his pass rushing ability. He’s an important cog in this year’s team, because the backup defensive ends are either nondescript (Renaldo Sagesse, Anthony Lalota, Steve Watson) or very young (Jibreel Black, Jordan Paskorz). I think Jibreel Black is going to be a very good player by the time his career plays out at Michigan, but he’s just a true freshman.

Prediction for 2010: Starting defensive end; 55 tackles, 7.5 sacks

Voters chose Van Bergen with 67% of their votes.