Tag: Troy Woolfolk

Preview: Michigan at Indiana

Expect to see a lot of this: Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell picking on Michigan’s secondary.

Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is currently the #2 rushing offense in the country with 331.25 yards a game.  Meanwhile, Indiana has been giving up 177 yards a game to the likes of Western Kentucky, Akron, and Towson to rank #92 in the nation.  This is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers.  Despite the return of starting middle linebacker Tyler Replogle, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, the Wolverines should be able to have their way.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is the leading rusher in the NCAA, and the only way Indiana should be able to stop him is by bruising his knee after a 30-yard run.  One caveat, though – there’s a strong possibility that running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder; 2 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD last week) and Michael Shaw (knee; 44 carries, 256 yards, 5 TDs this year) will miss Saturday’s game.  That leaves sophomore Vincent Smith, redshirt sophomore Michael Cox, and freshman Stephen Hopkins to pick up the slack in the running back rotation.  That shouldn’t matter too much, although those two missing players are big-play threats for Michigan’s offense.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan’s quarterbacks have only been sacked once this year, and the likelihood of Indiana’s front seven catching up to Denard Robinson is low.  The Hoosiers have only mustered four sacks this season in those three games against feeble opponents.  The biggest matchup problem here is 2010 Denard Robinson vs. 2009 Denard Robinson.  If 2010 Denard Robinson keeps up his torrid pace and throws like the 16th most efficient QB in the country, then this should be a clear victory for the Wolverines once again.  I haven’t seen any evidence that Robinson will regress to 2009 form, but his performance so far this season seems too good to be true.  He’s bound to have a bad game at some point, but will it happen against Indiana?  Well . . . probably not.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
The Wolverines have done a better job of limiting big runs in 2010.  With eight men consistently in the box, Michigan’s run defense hasn’t been great (#53 in the country, 135.25 yards a game), but big plays have been rare.  Hopefully that can remain true this week, too, because leading rusher Darius Willis (46 carries, 219 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) had an 85-yard TD against Michigan in 2009, and wideout Tandon Doss had a 25-yard TD in last year’s game, too.  One of the most memorable images from the 2009 season was of Willis outrunning safety Jordan Kovacs and cornerback J.T. Floyd to the endzone.  That was not a happy moment.  The only guy who had a prayer of catching Willis from behind was safety Troy Woolfolk, who’s currently healing from a broken ankle.  Michigan’s secondary is even a bit slower this year, as Floyd and Kovacs are back but Woolfolk’s replacement is Cam Gordon, who gets outrun by 265 lb. tight ends and MAC wide receivers.  Improved play from Michigan’s linebackers – as well as the eight-man front – should be able to stall Willis a little better this year, but there will be some frustrating moments.
Advantage: Indiana

Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
This is what scares me.  Bad opponents or not, Indiana averages 304 yards a game through the air (#11 in the country).  Michigan played a couple patsies and Notre Dame, but ranks #105 in the country in pass defense (264 yards a game) and #55 in pass efficiency defense.  Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 270 yards last year, and he’s supported by some good-sized receivers with decent but not great speed.  Free safety Cameron Gordon has been a liability in pass coverage, and I expect Indiana to test him repeatedly; the Hoosiers would be silly not to try.  Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to shut down a decent passing game, and I don’t think this is the week that they’ll step up.  Michigan fans will just have to pony up and expect some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Indiana

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Ben Chappell increases the team’s passing average by throwing for 305 yards or more
• Michigan finally gets a big play out of the return game
• My preseason upset pick will be proven wrong because . . .
• . . . Michigan will win 45-31

2010 Countdown: #2 Troy Woolfolk

Name: Troy Woolfolk
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 195 lbs.
High school: Dulles High School in Sugar Land, TX
Position: Cornerback
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #29
Last year: I ranked Woolfolk at #8. He made 6 starts at deep safety and 6 starts at cornerback and tallied 46 tackles along with 1 pass breakup.

Woolfolk was one of the better players on Michigan’s defense last season, despite flip-flopping positions. He was a cornerback in 2007 and 2008, then moved to deep safety in spring 2009. He played fairly well at deep safety for the first half of the season, but the moronic behavior (Boubacar Cissoko) and poor play (J.T. Floyd) of Michigan’s non-Donovan Warren cornerback last season forced Woolfolk back to cornerback. The position move was good for Woolfolk, who proved he could cover, but it was bad for Michigan’s defense, which turned into a sieve. Although Warren was a 5-star classmate of 3-star Woolfolk, opposing teams largely ignored Woolfolk’s receivers and picked on every other part of the secondary.

Coming into 2010, I assumed Woolfolk would remain at deep safety. He played well there last year, and no other safeties had shown the ability to do the job. However, Michigan made some slight tweaks to the defense and converted to a defense that will be predominantly a Cover 3 defense. In such a scheme, a fleet-footed deep safety isn’t needed, and it looks as though converted wide receiver Cameron Gordon will be taking that role this season.

Then the Great Cornerback Exodus began. In addition to Warren entering the NFL Draft a year early (and promptly going undrafted) and Boubacar Cissoko going to jail, elite cornerback recruit Demar Dorsey failed to qualify for entry to Michigan and Justin Turner chose to transfer; if you’re scoring at home, that’s one 5-star and three high 4-star cornerbacks who should be on the roster for this season. In case Michigan fans’ souls weren’t crushed enough, Woolfolk broke his lower leg a couple days after Turner was released from his scholarship.

There are only a couple places on the team where Michigan simply couldn’t afford an injury to a quality starter, and Woolfolk’s cornerback position was one of them. His backups are young, not very good, or both. When I created this list a couple months ago, I looked at the depth and talent at cornerback . . . and still put Woolfolk all the way at #2. With a redshirt freshman position changer (Gordon) playing free safety and a guy who was removed from the field in favor of Mike Williams (Floyd) at the other cornerback, Woolfolk was indispensible. Now senior James Rogers has taken over Woolfolk’s position (at least for now), and while Rogers has great speed, he hasn’t played much in his career. This position is weak, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it costs Michigan a game or two throughout the season.

Prediction for 2010: Redshirt due to broken ankle; return for fifth year status in 2011

The Effect of the Troy Woolfolk Injury on Recruiting

There was immediate frustration felt by Michigan fans upon Troy Woolfolk’s ankle injury, and that injury will have a ripple effect on the team and Michigan’s recruiting. As a true senior in 2010, Woolfolk’s eligibility status throws an interesting wrench into the plans to recruit for 2011.

Woolfolk’s senior status had Michigan fans and recruiting gurus planning to “take him off the books” for 2011, who assumed that his scholarship could be used toward bringing in a new recruit. I presume that Woolfolk will now return for a fifth year of eligibility in 2011. As a solid Big Ten starter with NFL measurables, Woolfolk had a chance to be a mid-round pick in the NFL Draft next year. Assuming that he recovers fully from his injury, that potential still remains but will likely be postponed until the 2012 NFL Draft.

According to my unofficial calculations, Michigan would have had 17 scholarships to give in the Class of 2011. Twelve seniors should be graduating, and five scholarships are unused. Ten of those scholarships have been filled up to this point. However, since Woolfolk will probably return for a fifth season, that number of graduating seniors drops to 11 and the total scholarships available drops to 16. And despite the fact that Michigan’s cornerback depth is very thin, Michigan should return at least three cornerbacks with starting experience in 2011 – the presumed 2010 starters in J.T. Floyd and Cullen Christian; and Woolfolk. And although it wasn’t completely necessary for Michigan to bring in an immediate-impact corner in the Class of 2011, now that need has likely been diminished even further.

Michigan already has two cornerbacks committed for 2011. The goal for a number of defensive backs may have swelled to four by Signing Day, but if Woolfolk returns, the need for a fourth DB disappears. There are now six scholarships available, and Michigan can only afford to use a maximum of one of those remaining scholarships for the defensive backfield. Here’s how I see those scholarships being used:

1. Running back: Demetrius Hart is the most likely option, as long as Michigan’s season goes fairly well.
2. Tight end: There are no impending commitments, but a WR/TE tweener could be offered and commit, such as Ben McCord.
3. Wide receiver: More depth is needed at wide receiver, especially with Darryl Stonum, Junior Hemingway, and Martavious Odoms being seniors in 2011. AJ Jordan is a possibility.
4 and 5. Offensive line: Anthony Zettel offers some position flexibility, which would be helpful with needs at both OL and DL. Chris Bryant would also be an option.
6. Defensive tackle: There’s talent already at defensive tackle, but not a lot of bodies. Michigan needs one big body in the middle.

Cornerback isn’t as pressing of a need as those other positions. Including Woolfolk and the two current Class of 2011 needs, Michigan will have seven cornerbacks on the roster in 2011. As mentioned, at least three of them will have starting experience. The needs at TE, WR, OL, and DT are more pressing. Interestingly, the position Michigan least needs to recruit is the running back spot, but Demetrius Hart is the highest-rated and most anticipated Michigan target at this point. If no additional scholarships open up and Hart commits elsewhere, I would not be surprised to see Michigan go without a running back in this recruiting cycle.

Addendum: If 2010 commitments Conelius Jones and Antonio Kinard end up qualifying and enroll in January, that could add more twists to the scholarship situation. However, usually it seems that Michigan’s non-qualifiers don’t end up at Michigan, so I’m not counting on them being a part of the picture.

Troy Woolfolk has an Ouchie

I hope this makes you feel better.

Reports and statements after practice today strongly suggest that senior cornerback Troy Woolfolk dislocated an ankle today. If that rumored prognosis is accurate, Woolfolk will most likely miss the entire 2010 season.

Who will take Woolfolk’s spot at cornerback?
This practically cements the starting cornerbacks as redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd and true freshman Cullen Christian. Floyd was probably set to be the #2 cornerback. Christian is the most talented of three incoming freshmen at the position, with more talent and potential than Terrence Talbott and Courtney Avery. Senior cornerback-turned-wideout-turned-cornerback James Rogers will also be in the mix.

Will any position changes occur to fill the void at cornerback?
Michigan doesn’t have the talent or depth at other positions to move many guys. Sophomore Teric Jones played cornerback last year but moved to Bandit in the spring. When redshirt freshman J.T. Turner decided to transfer last week, head coach Rich Rodriguez stated that Jones would get practice reps at Bandit and cornerback. I imagine that Jones will make a full-scale move to cornerback now. Another option is true freshman D.J. Williamson, a 6’1″, 170 lb. receiver who played a little defense in high school. Longshots to move include true freshman safety Ray Vinopal and redshirt junior safety Michael Williams, who has seemingly been squeezed out of the competition at Spur. None of these players should be considered as challengers for the starting cornerback job, however.

How did the depth at cornerback get so . . . shallow?
From the Class of 2007, wide receiver/cornerback Zion Babb ran off after Rodriguez arrived in Ann Arbor. Five-star cornerback recruit Donovan Warren entered the 2010 NFL Draft early, only to go undrafted. Cornerback/safety recruit Michael Williams suffered a knee injury and moved to safety full-time after Ron English was let go.

From the Class of 2008, Boubacar Cissoko took stupid pills once he arrived on campus and was booted from the team in mid-2009.

From the Class of 2009, athlete recruit Denard Robinson was pegged by some teams as a cornerback; he came to Michigan as a quarterback and has seemingly taken the lead in the race to be behind center in 2010. J.T. Turner arrived on campus out of shape and remained out of shape; he decided he’d had enough of Mike Barwis and his crazy “stay in shape” demands, so he received his transfer papers last week. Robinson’s high school teammate Adrian Witty failed to qualify initially, and then once he qualified, Michigan’s Admissions department failed to admit him for January 2010.

From the Class of 2010, prized defensive back recruit Demar Dorsey failed to meet Michigan’s admissions standards (and apparently Louisville’s, too). The late pursuit of Dorsey may have curtailed Michigan’s chase for a couple potential mid-level cornerback recruits, particularly Rashad Knight and Tony Grimes. Athlete recruit Conelius Jones failed to qualify.

Overall, that’s nine potential cornerbacks who are either playing other positions (Michael Williams, Denard Robinson) or no longer on the team. I can’t blame Lloyd Carr or Rodriguez for most of those position changes and such. However, the handling of the cases of Adrian Witty, Demar Dorsey, and Conelius Jones should come into question now. Why were those three allowed to sign Letters of Intent if they weren’t qualified? At such an important position – and one in such dire need – Rodriguez couldn’t afford to hand out scholarships to kids who would never play a down for Michigan. He did anyway. I hope I’m wrong, but this could be a major failure of the Rodriguez regime at Michigan.

Are there any positives that could come of this?
Well . . . uhhh . . . since Woolfolk played as a true freshman in 2007 (a waste of a redshirt at the time), he’s only a fourth year senior this season. He could possibly regain his health enough to play as a redshirt senior in 2011.

How much does this impair Michigan on the field in 2010?
Significantly. The likely starter at free safety is a true freshman who changed positions from wide receiver in the spring. One starting cornerback is a guy who many (including me) believed should be a safety . . . that is, if Michigan had enough depth at cornerback to move him. The other starting cornerback is either James Rogers, a senior who has barely seen the field in three years, or a true freshman. Michigan’s defense was going to be bad in 2010, anyway. The loss of Woolfolk not only affects the passing game negatively, but also exchanges a solid tackler for an 18-year-old kid who admittedly needs to improve his tackling (Christian). This injury probably lowers Michigan’s win total by one or two games.

Review: 2009 Season Predictions

Jordan Kovacs went from an afterthought to a Freshman All-American.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to record my predictions, in order to look back on them at a later date. Well, that date has come. It’s a few weeks prior to the 2010 season, and I can’t help but think back on how I did last year (2009 Season Predictions here). I didn’t do too badly, but there were a couple surprises.

Starting Quarterback
Last year’s pick: Tate Forcier. I said he’d start every game.

I should have picked . . . Forcier. He started every game.

Leading Rusher
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor. I said he’d end the season with about 900 yards.

I should have picked . . . Minor. Minor only had 502 yards, but he missed three full games (plus parts of several others) due to injuries.

Leading Receiver
Last year’s pick: Greg Mathews. I said he’d catch 50 balls for 650 yards.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Mathews only caught 29 passes as the coaching staff continues to de-emphasize outside wide receivers. The leading receiver was slot receiver Roundtree, who caught 32 balls for 434 yards.

Leading Tackler
Last year’s pick: Obi Ezeh.

I should have picked . . . Steve Brown. Middle linebacker Ezeh fought through a back injury and inconsistency to finish third with 69 tackles. SAM linebacker Brown brought down 80 ballcarriers, while redshirt freshman safety Jordan Kovacs made 75 stops.

Leading Sacker
Last year’s pick: Brandon Graham. I said he’d finish at 10 sacks.

I should have picked . . . Graham. The obvious choice was obvious. Graham ended the season with 10.5 sacks, or 1/2 more of a sack than I thought. Damn half sacks!

Leading Interceptor
Last year’s pick: Donovan Warren. I said he’d snatch 3 errant passes.

I should have picked . . . Warren. He actually picked off 4 passes, so once again, I overestimated. If he had only picked off 3 like I told him to, then maybe he’d have stuck around for an extra year! Then again, that pick-off against Indiana really saved Michigan’s ass.

All-Big Ten First Team
Last year’s picks: Brandon Graham and Zoltan Mesko.

I should have picked . . . Graham, Mesko, and Donovan Warren. Graham and Mesko were voted All-Big Ten first team by the coaches. Those two plus Warren were chosen for the first team by the media. Two for three isn’t bad.

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor.

I should have picked . . . Minor. He scored 8 rushing touchdowns (48 points). The next closest scorer was Carlos Brown with 5 touchdowns (30 points). Placekicker Jason Olesnavage scored 75 points, but kickers are almost always the leading scorers, which is why I didn’t allow myself to pick him.

Breakout Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Junior Hemingway.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Hemingway only caught 16 passes, while Roundtree emerged as the go-to receiver late in the season and perhaps the front-runner for the next wearer of the coveted #1 jersey.

Breakout Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Troy Woolfolk.

I should have picked . . . Jordan Kovacs. I don’t feel bad about the Woolfolk pick. He made 46 tackles and I think he surprised a lot of people with his solid play at both deep safety and cornerback. Despite switching to cornerback halfway through the season, it seemed that opponents targeted Donovan Warren more often than Woolfolk. Still, Kovacs was a Freshman All-American, started eight games, and finished second on the team with 75 tackles.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Kevin Koger. I said he wouldn’t catch any more than 15 passes.

I should have picked . . . I’m not sure. Greg Mathews? Maybe Koger was the right pick. I said he’d catch 15 passes or less, and the spiteful bastard caught 16 just to piss me off. Regardless, he dropped a lot of passes in the second half of the season and got phased out of the offense a bit. It’s arguable who was the most disappointing, but I’m satisfied with my pick. I think most Michigan fans expected more production from the tight end spot.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Ryan Van Bergen. I said he’d end up with about 20 tackles and a couple sacks.

I should have picked . . . Obi Ezeh. Maybe Jonas Mouton. Those inside linebackers made a lot of Michigan fans sad. It might be a little harsh to put Ezeh here, since he had a bad back and everything. But it’s one of the two. Both were benched at various points, and Mouton had the same number of tackles as cornerback Donovan Warren. That’s not good. Meanwhile, Van Bergen basically doubled my predictions – he had 40 tackles and 5 sacks. Good for him.

In Summary . . .
Well, the results are a mixed bag. Out of twelve predictions, six of them were spot-on. That’s 50% (I’d like to thank my 4th grade teacher for the math skills). Technically, I guess I should get a slight deduction for only picking Graham and Mesko as All-Big Ten First Team; the coaches agreed with me, but the media added Warren. That’s 49%. But I think I should get a few points for Koger as Most Disappointing Offensive Player, as well as a slight bump for Woolfolk as Breakout Defensive Player. That puts me at right around 55%.

So . . . 55% of the time, I’m right every time. Perhaps I should not be trusted.

Go blue!