Tag: Vincent Smith

Michigan 42, Massachusetts 37

I wasn’t able to watch the game live yesterday.  After getting home at 12:15 a.m. from Friday night’s game, I was back at the football complex by 6:45 a.m.  Then we had a full day of practice, film, and meetings before I left at 3:30 p.m.  That’s pretty standard for Saturdays, so unless Michigan plays a 3:30 game or a night game, I have to watch it later.  The first time I checked the score on my phone, though, it was 17-14 and UMass was leading.  Usually I like to watch games live, but I was probably better off this way.  It would have been extremely frustrating to watch that game live.

So these thoughts are coming from the perspective of a guy who already knew the final score:

Notre Dame is stupid.  I don’t understand what Notre Dame was trying to do last week.  UMass certainly wasn’t able to shut down Denard Robinson (104 yards rushing, 241 yards passing, 3 total touchdowns), but they did a better job than the Fighting Irish.  Notre Dame had much better athletes, and they should have sold out to keep Robinson’s gains to a minimum.  It would have been difficult for Notre Dame to lock up with Michigan’s four- and five-wide looks since Brian Kelly’s squad had limited depth and speed at the safety positions, but it would have been worth a try.  It would have been better to have Zeke Motta covering Roy Roundtree than to let Robinson run for 244 yards.

Vincent Smith can’t get it done.  I know he came in early and worked hard.  I know he’s coming off ACL surgery.  I know he’s a willing blocker.  I know he has good hands.  He just can’t be a feature back in the Big Ten.  Good running backs have to be able to create for themselves in open space, and Smith just hasn’t shown that ability.  When evaluating Smith’s performance last year, I typically excluded his stats against Delaware State because . . . you know . . . that was just an unfair fight.  Sans DSU Smith had 31 carries for 110 yards and 0 touchdowns.  This year including FCS school Umass, Smith has 32 carries for 110 yards (3.4 yards per carry) and 1 touchdown.  Smith isn’t the best back on the team, and honestly, he might even be the fourth-best (behind Michael Shaw, Michael Cox, and Fitzgerald Toussaint).  Michael Shaw averaged over 10 yards a carry, but he got only one more attempt than Smith in yesterday’s game (12 to 11).

Michigan needs to stop scheduling FCS teams.  I said this prior to the 2007 game against Appalachian State, and I’m still saying it.  Playing FCS teams is a no-win situation.  If Michigan wins, they’re supposed to win and they don’t earn any respect.  If Michigan loses, it’s a giant blow to the team’s confidence and reputation.  I’m sure there are plenty of lower-tier FBS schools (from the MAC, the Sun Belt, the WAC, etc.) who would take a big payday and go home with a probable loss.  Michigan’s loss against Toledo in 2008 was the Wolverines’ first against a MAC school ever, but that loss doesn’t resonate nearly as loudly as Michigan’s failure against Appalachian State the year before.  Athletic director doesn’t need to go dumpster diving with these FCS schools.

Denard Robinson showed a little bit of touch.  Robinson showed something against UMass that he hadn’t shown in the first two games of the season, and that was the ability to put touch on a long ball.  The Wolverines rolled the pocket right against a Cover Zero look, and Robinson dropped in a rainbow to Darryl Stonum, who was streaking down the left sideline.  There hasn’t been much to criticize about Robinson’s play over the first few games, but that play answered some questions.  If teams in the future give Michigan a Cover Zero look or a Man Free defense, hopefully Robinson can take advantage.

The lack of defensive depth is apparent.  Massachusetts held the ball for 37:38 compared to 22:22 for Michigan.  But Michigan didn’t make a single substitution in the defensive backfield – TJ Floyd, James Rogers, Jordan Kovacs, and Cameron Gordon were the only DBs to play.  Even if all those guys are in great shape, it’s asking a lot to have them out there for almost two-thirds of the game.  Only 37 scholarships are currently being used by defensive players, and 13 of those are true freshmen.

Michigan’s offensive team speed is ridiculous.  I’d be willing to bet that this is the fastest team Michigan has ever put on the field.  Even Michigan’s “slow” receiver Roy Roundtree was able to run away from the UMass defense for a touchdown (which would be called back).  Denard Robinson, Darryl Stonum, Michael Shaw, and Martavious Odoms are the burners, but all these guys can run.  There are only a couple skill position guys whose speed is mediocre, but those guys haven’t been on the field much.

A win is a win . . . I guess.  I’m mildly upset about the score and yardage totals.  While I’m certain that the actual talent differential between Michigan and UMass is more than five points, the performance on the field leaves some questions.  In the years to come, not many people will remember that Michigan almost lost to UMass.  This is temporarily upsetting, but that will wear off.  I can’t speak for everyone, but I didn’t learn anything new from this game – Michigan’s offense is explosive, the defense is terrible, and the special teams are mediocre at best.

Michigan 28, Notre Dame 24

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson ran for a billion yards on Saturday.

Yesterday was such a roller coaster of emotions throughout the game.- Low: Michigan’s defense sucks as Notre Dame QB Dayne Crist marches down the field for an opening-drive TD.
– High: This Denard kid is pretty good.
– Higher: Crist is hurt. Maybe Michigan has a chance!
– Highest: Denard Robinson runs 87 yards for a touchdown.
– Low: Why are all three guys with a deep third gathered in the middle of the field at the end of the half?
– High: Michigan is up by two touchdowns at halftime.
– Low: Dayne Crist is back.
– Lower: Crist throws a 53-yard touchdown pass to T.J. Jones.
– Lowestest: Crist throws a 95-yard touchdown pass to TE Kyle Rudolph over the head of FS Cam Gordon.
– High: This Denard kid is really good.
– Low: Cullen Christian’s hero must be Shawn Crable.
– Coasting into the station: Dayne Crist throws an airball with :00 on the clock.It was such a relief when the game was over. I was expecting a loss, but the thing about predicting a loss is that I’m either justified in my prediction . . . or I’m ecstatic that Michigan won. And I’d much rather see the Wolverines win than be right.

There were so many things that Michigan fans learned yesterday about their team, and I’ll try to touch on a few of them here:Denard Robinson is really, really good. Notre Dame’s defense made a distinct attempt to stop him. He still ran for 258 yards (a Big Ten record for a QB) on 28 attempts (9.2 yards per carry), including an 87-yard touchdown and the 2-yard game-winner. The Fighting Irish have an experienced defense and run a 3-4 scheme that isn’t seen much in college, but Robinson was also able to throw for 244 yards on 24/44 passing (55%) (EDIT: Reader MH20 pointed out that Denard was 24/40 for a 60% completion rate) against three seniors and a sophomore in the defensive backfield.

Michigan’s running backs are not. Notre Dame keyed on Robinson and geared themselves to stop him in the run game. Still, running backs Vincent Smith (7 carries, 17 yards, 2.4 average) and Michael Shaw (5 carries, 12 yards, 2.4 average) were ineffective. These kids will take what’s given to them, but they don’t create yards for themselves. This seems to be an ongoing position battle, and hopefully running back recruits like Demetrius Hart recognize that the presence of a quarterback like Robinson should give them plenty of opportunities to get in space. After two weeks, Robinson is averaging 28.5 carries per game. That’s too much for a sturdy running back, let alone a 194 lb. quarterback.

Michigan’s receivers have stepped up. The only true drop I remember came from tight end Kevin Koger on a rollout pass early in the game. Otherwise, players like Darryl Stonum (4 for 33), Roy Roundtree (8 for 82 and 1 touchdown), and Martavious Odoms (7 for 91) made some highly contested catches throughout the game. If Robinson throws the ball within reasonable reach of Michigan’s wideouts, they’re going to catch it.

Cameron Gordon has a target on his back. Most or all of Notre Dame’s big plays were the result of Cameron Gordon’s inexperience and/or lack of natural talent. Luckily for Michigan, this Notre Dame team represented perhaps the most dangerous passing team on the Wolverines’ 2010 schedule. But other teams will be forced to take note of Gordon’s mistakes. There were numerous times where receivers ran past him or he lost track of them (the TD pass to Jones, the long pass to Riddick at the end of the first half, the 95-yard TD to Rudolph). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Brian Kelly gameplanned to attack the redshirt freshman wide receiver-turned-safety. This is the reason that I lobbied for Troy Woolfolk to remain at deep safety back in the spring. Obviously, a broken ankle would have sidelined Woolfolk no matter what position he was playing, but you can’t convince me that a Big Ten sprinter of Woolfolk’s caliber would have been outrun by a 265 lb. tight end to the end zone. I would not be entirely surprised to see a player with more speed (perhaps Carvin Johnson or Marvin Robinson) take over the FS position in the coming years. I don’t want to see him benched, but I think Gordon would fit better at Bandit or Spur.

Jonas Mouton is blossoming in this defense. He led the team with 13 tackles and also picked off a flea-flicker pass. He did miss some tackles on the elusive and speedy Armando Allen, but I can’t say that I blame him – Allen could be a special college running back if used correctly. Overall, Mouton showed the play recognition and discipline to be a force for the remainder of the season.

The pass rush needs to improve. Through two games, Michigan’s only sack has come from backup Spur Thomas Gordon, who started in place of the injured Carvin Johnson. Michigan frequently used a three-man rush in an attempt to get to the quarterback, and it repeatedly failed. That three-man rush often consisted of nose tackle Mike Martin, defensive end Ryan Van Bergen, and linebacker Craig Roh playing in a three-point stance. At 251 lbs. Craig Roh can’t stand up to being double-teamed in the pass rush. Against a single offensive lineman, I’ll take Roh to win that matchup a majority of the time. If a second lineman comes to help, Roh will get planted on his butt, which happened several times on Saturday. Ultimately, you play to win the game (thanks, Herm Edwards!), and Michigan did that. But the Wolverines also gave up 381 yards passing.

Tate Forcier is being a good teammate. There were questions last week about his behavior on the sideline after freshman Devin Gardner was inserted instead of Forcier. Forcier was shown giving Coach Rodriguez a hug prior to kickoff, he warmed up congenially when Gardner was inserted for one play, and he was shown cheering on his team over and over again. At least publicly, Forcier looks as though he learned a bit of a lesson from the media blowback last weekend.

You might hate me for saying this, but Notre Dame would have won the game if not for Dayne Crist’s injury. Crist is only a sophomore, but he performed much better than his two replacements (Tommy Rees, Nate Montana) who had never played an FBS snap before. When Crist was available, Notre Dame outscored Michigan 24-7. Rees and Montana went 8/19 for 104 yards and 2 interceptions in Crist’s stead. Crist was 13/25 for 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, in addition to a rushing touchdown. Crist missed about 26 minutes of the game. If the Irish kept up that same rate of scoring (24 points per 34 minutes of Crist’s availability), they would have scored about 42 points in the game. Despite Denard Robinson’s heroics and record-setting performance, all may have been for naught if Crist remained healthy. Injuries are a part of the game, but I think Michigan fans should recognize that the Wolverines got a bit lucky yesterday.

Denard Robinson is the clear-cut Heisman leader right now. Robinson has 885 total yards (455 rushing, 430 passing) and 5 touchdowns through two games. He also hasn’t turned over the ball once, and his team is 2-0. In addition, while several other Heisman candidates have played patsies at least once in the first two games, both of Michigan’s opponents were bowl-eligible last season. Now that Robinson has performed well against solid teams – and rushed the ball 57 times – I’m guessing he’ll get quite a bit of rest against UMass next Saturday. I doubt he’ll remain the leader throughout the season because Michigan’s defense will lose a few games this year, but he’s been the best individual performer so far.

Michigan 30, Connecticut 10

I was only able to watch the last two-and-a-half quarters of the game due to my football obligations, but here are some thoughts on what I saw.

• Denard Robinson has improved exponentially. He took advantage of a weak defense, but he still completed 19/22 passes (86.3%) and didn’t turn the ball over. Oh by the way, he rushed for 197 yards and one touchdown on 6.8 yards per carry.
• The offensive line looked excellent in pass protection, but only so-so in run blocking. It makes things much easier for Robinson if he doesn’t have to run for his life. However . . .
• . . . Michigan’s running backs looked only average. Between Vincent Smith and Mike Shaw, they got only 3.4 yards per carry against a weak defense. Both failed to hit the line of scrimmage full speed at times, and neither showed an ability to be “special.”
• There’s no excuse (unless there was an undisclosed injury to Tate Forcier) for the way that Devin Gardner burned his redshirt. When Robinson left the game momentarily with a minor injury in the third quarter, Rich Rodriguez inserted true freshman Gardner instead of apparent third-stringer Tate Forcier, who started all 12 games in 2009.
• Robinson had way too many carries (29). Yes, he was successful carrying the ball (6.8 yards per carry, 1 touchdown), but that would give him 377 carries over a 13-game season. The NFL record over a 16-game season is 416, by running back Larry Johnson. The coaches and Robinson himself need to be smart about how he’s deployed and get the ball out of his hands once the game is safely out of reach.
• Too many redshirts were burned today. Not only Devin Gardner’s, but also Drew Dileo’s (to hold for extra points!) and Ray Vinopal’s (for special teams!). Some freshmen were obviously needed to play, but with those three, what’s the point?

Some thoughts on the defense:

• Even though Michigan only allowed 10 points, I’m certainly not satisfied. UConn helped out the defense with several dropped passes, and UConn quarterback Zach Frazer completed just 18/37 passes (48.6%) despite the fact that only 4 were deflected by Michigan players.
• The tackling is suspect, although UConn has a solid running game.
• Obi Ezeh seemed to play solidly for most of the game and led the team in tackles with 9, although as a senior, his play recognition should be better. On third-and-long, there’s no reason to bite on a play action fake and not get the proper depth in your drop. That left an open receiver in the seam and allowed UConn a first down.
• When a 195 lb. freshman linebacker (Carvin Johnson) is taking on a 6’7″, 325 lb. offensive guard on the interior of the line on a goal line play, something is wrong with your defensive scheme. Hopefully Johnson’s knee isn’t hurt too badly, but the replay showed his lower leg twisting in a direction it shouldn’t.
• J.T. Floyd should be praised for forcing a fumble near his own goal line, but he’s lucky the crown of his helmet hit the ball being carried by D.J. Shoemate rather than Shoemate himself. Nobody wants to see another Zia Combs moment.
• Zero sacks on 37 pass attempts? UConn has a large, veteran offensive line, but the pass rush needs to improve in the coming weeks.
• Cameron Gordon took some poor angles at free safety, but he’s also a head hunter back there. If he can get a bead on receivers and running backs, he’s going to give some offensive players some headaches . . . literally.

2010 Season Predictions

Starting quarterback: Denard Robinson will start the season opener against UConn on Saturday. However, I think his lack of passing ability (although improved) will give Tate Forcier a chance to take the majority of the snaps by the end of the season.

Leading rusher: Denard Robinson. Even if he’s not the starting quarterback for the entire season, he should get enough carries – and enough big plays – to be Michigan’s leading rusher. The team also lacks a clear #1 running back, which means handoffs will be shared amongst Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Stephen Hopkins. My guess is Robinson will end up with around 800 yards rushing.

Leading receiver: Roy Roundtree. The quarterbacks like to target the slot receivers, and Roundtree caught 30 balls over the last four games last season. The guess here is that Roundtree gets 60 catches and 900 yards this season.

Leading tackler: Last year’s leading tackler was Steve Brown, who played something similar to the Spur position. That will be manned by freshman Carvin Johnson, who will almost surely suffer from brain farts or injury this year and therefore disqualify himself. The second-leading tackler was Jordan Kovacs, who will probably lose some time to freshman Marvin Robinson. The third leading tackler was middle linebacker Obi Ezeh, who seems to have lost his job to a converted fullback. So I’m going with last year’s fourth-leading tackler: Jonas Mouton.

Leading sacker: Redshirt junior defensive end Ryan Van Bergen will edge out sophomore linebacker Craig Roh by the slightest of margins, 7.5 to 7.

Leading interceptor: I don’t expect Michigan to grab a lot of picks this year. The Wolverines will probably have a few guys pick off two passes each, and those will be J.T. Floyd, Jordan Kovacs, and Jonas Mouton. But because I don’t want to be wishy-washy like Michael Wilbon, I’ll pick Floyd.

All Big Ten 1st team: Center David Molk. Kick returner Darryl Stonum.

Leading scorer (non-QB, non-kicker): Roy Roundtree.

Breakout offensive player: I don’t see anyone having a monstrous season, and Roy Roundtree was probably 2009’s breakout player, or else I would pick him. So I’ll go with Denard Robinson, who will hopefully be able to pass the ball well enough to qualify in this category.

Breakout defensive player: Ugh, this defense looks bad. I guess I’ll go with Ryan Van Bergen. He won’t be a superstar and he won’t approximate Brandon Graham, but he should be able to get a consistent pass rush.

Most disappointing offensive player: Despite being listed as a co-starter, I think Vincent Smith will be somewhat of a disappointment this year. A lot of people thought he was the heir apparent last year when he seemed to be the primary backup for the senior running backs, but I think he’s just mediocre. He might be consistent, but spectacular plays are outside his reach, in my opinion.

Most disappointing defensive player: Cameron Gordon can’t possibly live up to all the offseason hype, although I hope he can. He’s still going to be raw, and I think he’ll make some frustrating plays. This is a hard category to pick, because not much is expected from anyone on defense, really.

The Big Finish
Sept. 4 vs. Connecticut: WIN. Connecticut is a little banged up, and they will be able to run the ball. But Rodriguez was undefeated against UConn in the Big East, and most of those games were blowouts. He knows how to defeat a Randy Edsall-coached team.

Sept. 11 at Notre Dame: LOSS. Dayne Crist and Michael Floyd will dispatch an overmatched secondary in a shootout.

Sept. 18 vs. UMass: WIN. Something approximating the 63-6 trouncing of Delaware State last year is likely.

Sept. 25 vs. Bowling Green: WIN. Michigan’s high-powered offense and superior athletes should be able to roll past BGSU, and the Falcons lost some significant firepower from last season.

Oct. 2 @ Indiana: LOSS. Remember when I said that Troy Woolfolk’s injury would cost Michigan a game at some point? It’s this one right here.

Oct. 9 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. I’d like to pick a win here, but Michigan isn’t good enough to start 5-1, and Kirk Cousins should be able to throw the ball all over the field.

Oct. 16 vs. Iowa: WIN. Michigan barely lost at Iowa last season, and the Wolverines match up with the Hawkeyes better this year. Iowa has a stout defense, but Michigan’s offense has improved.

Oct. 30 @ Penn State: WIN. Penn State’s quarterback position is in flux, the offensive line is weakened, and the defense suffered from some big losses. They’ll get a bunch of rushing yards, but Michigan should be able to pull it out in the end.

Nov. 6 vs. Illinois: WIN. Illinois sucks. They’ll be able to run the ball, but they won’t score enough.

Nov. 13 @ Purdue: WIN. Purdue has a solid defense and they’ve beaten Michigan a couple years in a row . . . I just can’t imagine the Boilermakers running the streak to three.

Nov. 20 vs. Wisconsin: LOSS. Wisconsin looks good this year. Even though I think they’ll fall short of many people’s expectations, they’re probably better than the Wolverines.

Nov. 27 @ Ohio State: LOSS. Ugh.

Final record: 7-5.

2010 Countdown: #36 Vincent Smith

Name: Vincent Smith
Height: 5’6″
Weight: 169 lbs.
High school: Pahokee High School in Pahokee, FL
Position: Superback
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #2
Last year: I ranked Smith #71 and said he’s redshirt. He rushed the ball 48 times for 276 yards and 1 touchdown, as well as caught 10 passes for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Smith had a solid freshman season and contributed more than most people expected he would. The coaches made up their minds early that he would play, as he saw game action in the 2009 season opener. He had a great game against Delaware State, racking up 166 yards on 17 carries. Otherwise, he had a ho-hum season rushing the ball. Against FBS schools, Smith carried the ball 31 times for 110 yards, a 3.55 yards per carry average. He did, however, contributed a good deal in the passing game and scored Michigan’s only touchdown against Ohio State on an 18-yard reception. Later in the game, though, Smith tore his ACL.

Receiving the bulk of the carries given to non-seniors last season, many fans expected that Smith would be the front-runner for the starting superback job in 2010. That is not my expectation, and there are several reasons:

1. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a 5’6″ starting running back at an FBS school, especially in the Big Ten.
2. Smith tore his ACL on November 21, 2009, meaning that he’ll be less than 10 months removed from surgery when the season starts. Those injuries usually take 12 to 18 months from which to fully recover, especially for jitterbug running backs who will be bending that knee in all different directions.
3. For all of Smith’s pass-catching ability, his running ability is lacking. His elusivity is his main strength, but his speed and strength leave something to be desired. It’s not unusual for freshman running backs to adjust quickly to the college game, but 3.55 yards per carry indicates that the adjustment hasn’t taken place yet.
4. There are better running backs on the roster, in my opinion.

I do expect Smith to play in 2010. He has reportedly been running near full speed this summer (although not cutting quite yet), and being 20 years old certainly speeds the healing process. The coaches obviously like some of the skills he brings to the table. However, being the starting running back on a Big Ten team less than 10 months removed from a torn ACL isn’t likely. Although I don’t expect it, I’d like to see Smith take a medical redshirt in 2010 and recover completely in time for the 2011 season.

Prediction for 2010: Backup running back; 35 carries, 130 yards, 1 touchdown