Wilton Speight (image via Lexington Herald Leader)
Maryland just doesn’t have the horses. I actually liked what Maryland was doing offensively and defensively, but they just can’t match up physically. They have some speed offensively, but they’re not very good up front and they’re lacking talent on the defensive side of the ball. They knew they couldn’t push Michigan around at the line of scrimmage, so they consistently tried to get to the edge. That worked for a while, but once Michigan figured out that’s all they were going to do, the safeties and linebackers just started booking it for the edge. Lorenzo Harrison III is a pretty darn good running back to have for the future. If the Terps can keep some of that Maryland/D.C. home, then they have a chance to be dangerous in a year or two.
Hit the jump for more.
Speight played another great game. I don’t know if this was better than his game against Michigan State, but it was right there. MSU had a better defense, but what really impressed me in this one was Speight’s decision-making, willingness to spread it around, and his throwing on the run. He didn’t force balls into tight spaces, he didn’t lock in on Amara Darboh, and he evaded numerous sack attempts to either dump off the ball or throw it deep. He finished the game 19/24 for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he set a school record for passing yards in the first half with 292.
And so did Mike McCray II. I saw some comments that McCray was a weak point on the edge, but I thought he did a pretty solid job of taking good angles to keep Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison from cutting up. He did lose his grip on a tackle – which was quickly cleaned up by his pursuing teammates – but he was there. I’ve actually been very impressed with McCray’s speed on the edge, even if he has been exposed a couple times when forced to cover wide receivers. He also made an excellent play to chase down Maryland wide receiver T.J. Moore at the 1-yard line just before halftime. McCray ended the game with 5 tackles and 2 tackles for loss.
Congratulations to Jake Butt. With 5 catches for 76 yards, Butt passed Jim Mandich and is now Michigan’s all-time leading receiver at tight end. Butt’s 1,521 yards – with at least four games remaining – surpassed Mandich’s 1,508.
This was an offensive explosion. A few notes:
- This was Jehu Chesson’s first 100-yard game of the season. He had three such games last season, with the first also happening to come in game nine (against Indiana).
- Three players had 75+ yards receiving: Chesson (112), Amara Darboh (77), and Butt (76)
- Runners had a field day and almost everyone averaged 5.3 yards/carry or more. The only exceptions were backup RB Karan Higdon and FB Khalid Hill:
- De’Veon Smith (114 yards, 6.0 yards/carry)
- Ty Isaac (56, 28.0)
- Chris Evans (32, 8.0)
- Jabrill Peppers (19, 9.5)
- Wilton Speight (16, 5.3)
- Eddie McDoom (12, 12.0)
- Bobby Henderson (8, 8.0)
Ho-hum 59 points. Believe it or not, 59 points was Michigan’s third-highest scoring game of the year after Rutgers (78) and Central Florida (63). For some perspective, here are the highest scoring efforts from the years under Brady Hoke and offensive-minded Rich Rodriguez:
- 67 vs. Illinois (2010)
- 65 vs. Bowling Green (2010)
- 63 vs. Indiana (2013), UMass (2012), and Delaware State (2009)
- 59 vs. Central Michigan (2013)
That’s six games in seven years where Saturday’s score was equaled or topped. There has been a fair amount of discussion about what type of offense is best, whether it’s pro-style, spread-to-run, spread-to-pass, etc. I think this reinforces the idea that any offense can be explosive if it’s run well.
I’m still lukewarm on Delano Hill and Channing Stribling. These two guys are still the ones I’m looking to expose if I’m a future opponent, especially Ohio State. Stribling struggled once again in run support, and Hill just isn’t a 100% effort guy. Despite Maryland running and throwing to the edge over and over again, Stribling made just 1 total tackle. Meanwhile, there were a couple times where Hill just seemed to slow up when chasing ball carriers, particularly when a corner route was completed on him. Hill did make 2 interceptions, but one was thrown directly to him down the middle of the field when there wasn’t a Maryland receiver on the screen, and the other was a ball thrown about 3 yards too far inside when Hill was playing his deep half. Kudos to him for making the interceptions when he had a chance, but I would like to see better effort from him when he’s beaten. He’s solid when things are in front of him, but he seems to check out at times.
How does this prepare Michigan for The Game? Maryland probably used the tunnel screens a little more than Ohio State will, and Ohio State’s going to run inside more. Ohio State’s going to be able to hold up a little better on the line, and J.T. Barrett is more capable of throwing downfield than Perry Hills. But when it comes to formations, system, and tempo, this was a pretty good approximation. People have been underestimating Ohio State, I think, and they had a statement game with a 62-3 win over #10 Nebraska on Saturday.
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– Speight is following Rudock’s footsteps in making improvements throughout the year, Harbaugh will get his drafted
– Smith looked faster than usual in this game, I know that Maryland has a terrible run defense, but he was beating people to the edge
– McCray was hobbled throughout the game, but he showed a lot of effort, Stribling on the other hand likes to plant his feet and watch opponents run around him
– I also thought that Durkin had a perfect game plan, but his defense just couldn’t hold up and when his starting qb got knocked out the situation became hopeless for him. No doubt that teams like Indiana and Ohio St will copy a lot of his plan, and in Ohio St case, they have the horses to finish promising drives
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I think Smith looked faster mainly because Maryland was slow to read and react. They also don’t have a ton of speed, but their recognition skills at linebacker leave something to be desired.
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RBs look faster and more decisive when they have holes. That’s mostly up to the OL, scheme, and the quality and level of effort of the defense.
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That was a clinic. Maryland has some nice QBs and bunch of very nice backs, but pretty much watched us adjust them into oblivion. If everything that went wrong for them from an “OH well ….. football” standpoint had gone right, this is still a 46 point loss.
I thought Kinel looked good, Watson looked improved, Gedeon went from sideline to sideline pretty well all day. I felt bad for Drake Harris who made a real nice play and got cheaped on a call. I tried to watch Kugler when he came in but kept losing him in the play.
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Great to see Harris get a completion even if it doesn’t count in the books. Seems like the coaching staff like his potential as a deep threat and it’s easy to see why.
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Most complete team performance of the season. They didn’t completely shut down Maryland like they did Rutgers but you saw the full package from the offense this game.
Speight had by far his best day to my eyes. Even on his few incompletions the WRs had a shot at the ball and it looked like the best target. Not a perfect day, but not far off. Smith and Evans really showed off what they are about. Butt was involved throughout. etc.
I thought Hill, again, was very good and versatile. McCray seems quite good to me but sometimes takes bad angles in space. He’s better when he’s attacking the backfield, as Brown so often has him doing.
For all his excellence in coverage, Stribling’s issues with tackling in space are real and recurring. I guess if you’re an offense you can try to exploit this, but something tells me Brown has a counter-punch ready.
I’m grasping at straws for meaningful takeaways for OSU. It’s come to the point that playing a mid-level Big 10 team at home is essentially an exhibition. I’m glad next week’s game is on the road and I hope our coaches (or at least analysts) are devoting some series attention to OSU every week.
Agree with Thunder’s take that people are underestimating OSU, though in fairness, they’ve played to earn it. I’m not buying into the advanced stats saying we have a 60%+ chance of winning*. Not in Ohio. I still expect OSU to be a narrow favorite.
*Those will likely dip a bit despite M’s dominating performance because OSU’s was more impressive against Nebraska.
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You can’t really “counter-punch” as a defense against someone who’s exploiting your tackling weakness. And I think Don Brown himself would probably recoil at the idea of “counter-punching” since he likes to be the aggressor.
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You can by sending additional defenders that way. If Stribling’s on the boundary and the offense is repeatedly trying to run at the boundary, Brown can adjust to stop it.
Brown’s aggression doesn’t mean he’s indifferent to what the offense is trying to do.
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In the offseason Hill and Stribling came in for criticism for not getting enough interceptions. Not playmakers it was said. I argued those were things that were subject to chance and not great indicators. Now that they are getting INTs and they are getting discounted for being lucky.
Hill and Stribling have 6 INTs. Lewis has two. The entire rest of the secondary has 1 total (including Thomas, Clark, Watson, Long, Kinnel, Hudson and everyone else that got talked up in the offseason).
They can’t win. This feels like confirmation bias.
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I’m sorry, but any statistic should be looked at somewhat subjectively. Delano Hill’s first INT against Maryland (where there was no Maryland player around) isn’t as impressive as Jourdan Lewis’s INT against Wisconsin. Channing Stribling’s pick six against Hawaii – where the ball was thrown right to him – wasn’t on par with Lewis’s INT against MSU at the end of the first half. At least half of those 6 interceptions aren’t because of great coverage – they’re because of really crappy QB play by opponents. Both of Lewis’s interceptions have been huge plays in key games (one to end the game against Wisconsin, one to prevent an MSU effort to hit a big play in a rivalry game we won by 9 points) and on excellent coverage.
If you poll football people, at least 9 out of 10 are going to pick Lewis over Hill or Stribling. So going back to what I said this week and last week: If I’m looking for a weakness or someone to exploit, it’s going to be those two guys.
(By the way, it’s a little disingenuous to insinuate that all those other DBs were talked up as much as or more than Stribling/Hill. Only four DBs can start, and Stribling/Hill were both expected to start. So…yeah, the starters have better stats than the backups. That’s not very revealing.)
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You’re making the same argument I’ve made all along, but you didn’t want to hear it when it didn’t match your opinion. Not a very good player because not a playmaker you said – look at the lack of INTs. Now they have them and suddenly INTs aren’t a good measure. Either they are or they aren’t. I don’t think they are. Part of INTs is luck – that’s how it goes.
I am not arguing Hill or Stribling are better than Lewis. Lewis has been an excellent CB for 3 seasons now and he’s never had a lot of INTs. His INT against Wisc was amazing, though he himself admitted he let the WR get too far beyond him on that play. The MSU INT was a horrible throw by bad QB gambling to try to get his team back in a game where they were down 2 TDs, with Michigan about to get the ball back in the second half (when they hadn’t been stopped the entire game). You’re being intentionally disingenuous I think.
What I AM arguing is that your continued criticism of two likely-NFL-bound seniors playing at a very high level on one of (if not the) best secondaries in the country is unwarranted. It seems like you’re picking on the guys who aren’t your personal favorites and who you’ve undervalued for a couple years, regardless of the evidence.
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I’ve never argued that an INT like Hill’s first INT wasn’t luck. I think that’s a mischaracterization of my argument. I did argue that a lack of interceptions is generally bad, and the presence of interceptions is generally good. Part of interceptions is luck. The same is true for sacks, rushing yards, touchdowns, injuries, etc. Heck, a big part of life is luck. But over a long period of time, a good deal of luck means you’re probably just pretty good.
As for Stribling, I ranked him coming out of high school as a “solid Big Ten starter with some NFL Draft potential.” It doesn’t make any sense for me to give him unwarranted criticism. Furthermore, I’ve said over and over again that these are the guys I would try to exploit if I were an opposing coach. It doesn’t mean they suck. If we had Charles Woodson and Leon Hall, I would try to exploit Leon Hall – who was a 1st round pick and has had a solid NFL career. If you would like to argue that opponents should target Jourdan Lewis more, then go for it. Otherwise, I don’t understand the fuss.
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We could parse this to death, but you’ve said a lot of things since Stribling came to college. Most of them have been critical. We’ve debated his ability every offseason for the last 3 years, but yeah, you can go back 4 if you want to and find unequivically positive things to say.
Hill and Stribling were good last year too. That their INT luck has turned around speaks to your point about the long run. You called them out for not getting INTs in the countdown, now they’re getting them, and you’re still calling them out in game recaps.
IMO the criticism of these two has been outsized compared to say the LBs – which consensus has as the weakest position group on an excellent defense and one where other teams have had some success attacking.
For example, McCray gets a pass for trying to cover and tackle RBs in space at 240 pounds in the comment above. No such leeway for a 6’2 170lb cover corner.
I’ve said my piece. IMO these guys have gotten short-shrift on TTB. They’re excellent college players. If opposing teams want to try to win by attacking them — GOOD LUCK!
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Again, why would it make sense for me to criticize Stribling when I originally said he would be pretty good? It seems the only reason would be if he deserved that criticism. Last year he lost playing time to Jeremy Clark. This year his coach even said he needed to be more involved in run support. You yourself admitted that he’s struggling with tackling.
McCray missed a tackle on a 5’8″, 193 lb. running back in space. Is it surprising to you that a 5’8″, 193 lb. running back is tough to tackle for a 6’3″, 242 lb. linebacker? Would you expect a 290-pounder to be able to corral a 240-pounder in space? Stribling is 6’2″, 175 lbs. I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect Stribling to keep up with a running back in space, while McCray, maybe not so much.
Regardless, I think you’re kind of dancing around the subject. You’re implying that these guys are excellent college players (and we can parse the term “excellent”), but my statement is that they are the weak points. Yes, it’s a very good defense, but there are still bound to be weak points that some teams can try to exploit. Some teams are incapable of that, but some teams aren’t. I know you said you’re done discussing it, but I think it’s a fair question to turn back around on you if you’re arguing about what I’m saying:
If you’re an opposing coach trying to find weaknesses you can exploit, which defensive starter(s) are you going to target?
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Let’s ask Mark Dantonio. His answer is Jabril Peppers and Jourdan Lewis. Counter-intuitive, but he had a lot of success relative to expectations.
If I was trying to beat this D I would try to run right at Peppers and I’d try to get Gedeon and McCray one on one in coverage. The LBs are clearly the weak link of this D. If that didn’t work I’d try spreading the field to get Peppers one on one with a WR going deep (where he’s been beaten several times) and Watson or Kinnel on the field. Grasping at straws because this defense has so few flaws and the limited weaknesses. Not easy to get to them when the DL and starting DBs are elite.
If it was easy to exploit a CB who struggles with tackling teams would have ran Deon Sanders off the field.
Jeremy Clark is good. Zordich put in work. Teams tried to target him last year and it rarely panned out for them. Stribling started over Clark until he got hurt.
I do expect LBs to tackle RBs in space. More so than CBs. Tackling RBs is a primary duty of LBs and a secondary one for CBs.
Part of the excellence of Thomas Hill and Peppers and Lewis is that they can both cover WRs and tackle guys in space. Not many players can do both.
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Let’s ask Mark Dantonio? Dantonio beat Channing Stribling for a passing TD, and L.J. Scott’s longest run of the day came on a very weak tackle attempt by Stribling.
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You wrote that Stribling and Hill were not playmakers in the offseason. That’s why it makes ‘sense’ for you to (continue to) criticize them (in the context of sticking to an argument).
McCray got ranked above both Stribling and HIll in the season countdown and was not criticized while Hill and especially Stribling had multiple negative comments. (I realize the countdown isn’t just about overall ability but the difference in tone in the countdown and since is stark.)
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That’s my point, though. Why would I say that about them if it weren’t accurate? It doesn’t matter when I said it, really. After I predict that someone will be a solid starter, why would I start criticizing them unless it’s something I actually believe? I would have already contradicted myself, so clearly it’s not an issue of having to stick to my guns. If that were the case, then I would have been insisting all along for the past four years that Stribling would be a good player.
I call it like I see it. It doesn’t really matter what I said four years ago or one year ago. I liked John O’Korn more than Wilton Speight, but I said in this post (and in past weeks) that Speight played a great game. There’s no agenda forcing me to criticize Stribling’s tackling ability, and you actually agree with me that he has tackling issues. This is a weird argument to have.
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You describe yourself as “lukewarm” and your comments reflect that. These guys are playing at a very high level per stats, PFF analysis, etc. and are very likely to be NFL draft picks.
To me, it is surprising to have “lukewarm” feelings about players this good.
Besides Lewis, Michigan might not have had a better CB than Stribling in nearly a decade. And as far as CB#2’s go – he’s the best since Andre Weathers. Hill is the best strong safety that I can remember at Michigan…ever? though I acknowledge reasonable minds may disagree on the quality of the ’97 team’s safeties).
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I’m not convinced of those same things as you about Stribling/Hill. Donovan Warren and Blake Countess both would have been pretty good in this defense, IMO. I completely disagree on Hill being the best strong safety. Thomas Gordon, Jordan Kovacs, Jamar Adams, etc. were all as good as or better than him, IMO.
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Countess lost his job to Taylor/Lewis because he wasn’t very good in press coverage. Clark and Stribling are both better in this defense.
Warren was an OK player, nothing special. He went undrafted by the NFL and it seems likely Stribling will be (though that’s still TBD of course).
Kovacs? C’mon man. This is like the people who think Zack Novak was better than GR3. Adams – eh, maybe, I don’t think he’s the athlete that Hill is but we’re going back a while now. Gordan was unexceptional. I give Hill the edge but we’ll see how the last few games of his college career pan out and what he does at the next level.
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Warren got dinged for a slow 40 time (4.68, IIRC) and also dealt with an injury while preparing for the NFL. I’m guessing Stribling won’t run a blazing 40, either. In fact, I think they’re very similar players, with Warren being a better tackler and having better ball skills.
Gordon was “unexceptional,” I guess, but I think you’ve talked before about wanting safeties to be boring. Hill might be a better “athlete” but that doesn’t necessarily make him a better safety. Gordon had 229 career tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, and 6 INTs. Kovacs made 334 tackles, 26 TFLs, 7 sacks, and 5 INTs. Hill has 103 tackles, 5 TFLs, 0 sacks, and 3 INTs with about 92% of his career under his belt. Hill would beat Kovacs and probably Gordon in a race, but he’s not automatically a better football player.
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I think Warren is overrated because he arrived when the secondary was totally inept and the contrast was so stark between somebody with actual talent and the rest of the roster. Was he better player than say Wayne Lyons (who barely contributed at Michigan but started for a highly ranked stanford D)? I doubt it.
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Anyway, I respect your opinions on the subject. I just think the criticism has been unduly strong and unnecessarily consistent over the last few years towards these 2.
I think this D is on a trajectory to be better than ’97’s and to play that well it takes a team effort. Maybe somebody down in Columbus (or even in Bloomington or Iowa City) is going to figure out the weaknesses of this group and exploit them, but I’m increasingly thinking that the weaknesses aren’t significant enough to be exploitable.
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Thanks Thunder. I’m surprised to read your take on McCray though. He missed more than the one tackle, and took a handful of bad angles again; we’re nine games in, so I had expected a bit better. He did save a TD to close the half, and in doing so deserves a ton of credit
The offense has come alive. Speight has improved every game since the break (not unlike Rudock), and is now in position to reach 3000yds passing. Quite an accomplishment for a first year starter who had a great deal of doubters (including me, from Colorado through Rutgers)
GO BLUE
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McCray did miss more than one tackle, but some of them are not as damning as others. The one on Harrison at the sideline was disappointing because he had him entirely wrapped up, but I don’t expect a 242 lb. inside linebacker to make a ton of plays against 205 lb. running backs in open space, either. He has to get there, slow things up, and let other guys help him corral those scatbacks.
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Fair enough
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Agreed with this. McCray is making a lot of plays out there. His mistakes have been few and far between.
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Speight sure is looking like Roethleisberger out there, even down to the surprisingly effective sack avoidance and rushing effectiveness.
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Wilton Speight has built up some impressive passing stats, but some might argue these are an outcome of playing weak competition. It’s worth noting that if you filter out the MSU’s, Rutgers, and Maryland’s of the world he’s still done pretty well again high quality defenses (and passing defenses). Michigan has play 4 top 25 defenses per S&P:
Wisconsin (#3 overall/D / #6 passing D)
Colorado (#8/12)
PSU (#15/14)
UCF (#21/23)
In those 4 games Speight has completed 62% of passes for 237 yard per game at 7.1 YPA. 7 TDs, 1 INT.
Those aren’t elite numbers on their own, but considering they came against top 25 defenses, I wonder how many would do better.
Worth considering if you think Jim Harbaugh is crazy for trying to talk up Speight as a Heisman contender.
FEI says Michigan has the #3 Offense and S&P says it’s #8. They get it done by being efficient more than explosive, but they get it done. If Speight and the offense continue to dominate opposing defense through saturday (on the road against a historically well-coached defense) it’s going to be BRING EM ON time!
OSU’s defense ranks #7th in the country per S&P and #8 per FEI. For context that’s something half-way between Wisconsin and (depending on the system) an average of UCF/PSU/Colorado.
Do I think Michigan is that good offensively? Maybe.
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I WANT MY AWARDS! In all seriousness, one of my favorite post-game posts.
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Coming at 6:30 a.m….
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