Michigan shakes up the offensive line. After the injury to left tackle Grant Newsome a few weeks ago, Michigan has been searching for some consistency on the left side. Redshirt sophomore Juwann Bushell-Beatty was the first player to draw into the lineup in Newsome’s spot. I know some people said he was doing fine, but I saw a guy who was struggling with his assignments. This week the Wolverines started fifth year senior Ben Braden at left tackle and true freshman Ben Bredeson at left guard, which I think is a superior lineup. I said since he committed (LINK) that I think Bushell-Beatty can play left tackle down the road if he manages his body properly, but I also thought he would be a guy to potentially start late in his career, not necessarily as a redshirt sophomore. There are still some things to work on for the future. Meanwhile, I thought the line had a decent day outside of right guard Kyle Kalis, who I think probably played his worst game of the season.
Hit the jump for more in the win vs. Illinois.
Jabrill Peppers usage. I actually thought Michigan mailed it in a little bit with its usage of Peppers on offense this week. It was more of what we’ve seen in the past, except they used him on a power read. Illinois was ready for it, and they’re solid in the front seven. Maybe Michigan was just trying to get him some Heisman votes by padding his stats a bit, but I didn’t really see where his presence aided the offense. In fact, it kind of bogged down with him playing in the backfield (5 carries for 9 yards). I expect some more creativity in the future, but I probably would have given up on him in this game after about 3 snaps.
Wilton Speight loves him some Amara Darboh. Maybe plays are being called with the principle of getting the ball to Darboh this season, but it seems like Speight looks for him whenever there’s even a slight chance that he’ll be open. Speight finished the game 16/23 for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns (Darboh had 5 catches for 99 yards). He played a solid game for the most part, though I thought he held onto the ball a bit too long a couple times and also got lambasted out of bounds one time when he slowed up (yet again) instead of hustling to get to the sideline. He greatly overestimates the kindness of defensive players.
There’s a first time for everything. Freshman wide receiver Nate Johnson made his first career reception. So did redshirt freshman tight end Tyrone Wheatley, Jr., which was a 21-yard touchdown reception. True freshman walk-on Tru Wilson got his first career carry, a 1-yarder in the fourth quarter. If I remember correctly, he’s at least the third true freshman walk-on to play this season, joining Nate Schoenle and Carl Myers.
Karan Higdon is coming along. The really nice thing about Higdon (8 carries, 106 yards, 1 touchdown) is that he has a burst to get to the second and third levels. Michigan hasn’t had a ton of that in recent years. Even sprinter Drake Johnson didn’t/doesn’t seem to have that same kind of acceleration. The combination of Higdon and Chris Evans has been a revelation for a team that has mostly had plodders like De’Veon Smith and Derrick Green in recent years. Fitzgerald Toussaint was a similar back, but he ran behind some bad offensive lines. Higdon has the advantage of playing late in some games when defenses are already worn down, but even so, other backs do less. It’s nice to have several backs who can rotate in and be fresh to keep the pressure on defenses late into games.
Speaking of Chris Evans, that again wasn’t targeting. At the tail end of a 16-yard run, freshman running back Chris Evans took a hard hit from a couple Illinois players and got his bell rung. His helmet came off and he laid on the turf, face-up, seemingly woozy and dazed. (News came out after the game that he passed the concussion protocol, which I find hard to believe, but that’s what they said.) Immediately, Twitter lit up about it being targeting. I feel like this is almost a weekly complaint/discussion and very few people understand targeting. There are two ways for targeting to be called:
- Forcible contact to the head/neck area of a defenseless player: This does not apply, because Evans wasn’t defenseless. He had already run 16 yards down the field and had not had his forward progress stopped. Though there was forcible contact to the head/neck area, it’s moot because he wasn’t defenseless.
- Contact with the crown of the helmet: The Illinois defensive back didn’t use the crown (top) of his helmet.
Illinois isn’t a bad unit. I thought the hiring of Lovie Smith was a pretty good idea, and it seems to be working out okay. Of course the Illini got crushed, but defensively, I thought they were pretty strong at the point of attack and physical. They seemed to be well coached on that side of the ball and didn’t allow a ton of big busts. Ultimately, they just got run over because they don’t have a great deal of talent. If Smith can parlay his NFL success into a decent recruiting class or two, I think they’ll be headed in the right direction. Offensively, it’s hard to tell much when they were down to their third-string quarterback. They don’t have much speed at wide receiver, but the offensive line is decent and they have a couple decent running backs. I know the numbers didn’t show it, but I actually thought Jeff George, Jr. performed pretty well for his first action. He avoided huge mistakes and took care of the ball, except for an ill-advised screen pass picked off by Dymonte Thomas.
Review of game predictions.
- Illinois’ starting QB won’t finish the game: Technically wrong. I thought Lunt or Crouch – both previously injured – would start the game and give way, but the healthy Jeff George, Jr. got the start.
- Grant Perry scores a touchdown: Scoring touchdowns is tough when you’re suspended. Perry and the Wangler brothers were all suspended for this game.
- Michigan holds Illinois to 70 rushing yards and 170 total yards: The final totals were 77 rushing yards and 172 total yards.
- Michigan 38, Illinois 3: My predicted 35-point spread turned into a 33-point spread with Michigan scoring 3 more points and Illinois scoring 5 more points than I thought
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People love the “Train Formation”, but the interesting feature on that play was the personal package.
Four, count em, 4 Tight Ends along with your oversized Fullback/H-Back all lined up together on that play. Butt at TE at the side of the formation, Wheatley at TE at the top of your screen, then Assisi, Khalid Hill and Michael Jocz all flanked out wide of Wheatley.
Butt drags underneath a very well played pick on his defender by Wheatley who deserves a helmet sticker for the fine job he did appearing to try to be getting open himself, the three wide bodies swept all the coverage as they curled into the middle of the field, and Jake Butt skated by a hopelessly confused LB for a TD, open by three yards.
Beautiful.
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Lower side of the formation.
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Personel.
Help me here Thunder.
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Catch Lanky!
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That’s cold.
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Why did we fake the punt? Fine line between being overly competitive and classless. Thoughts?
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Harbaugh is going to play four quarters, and I don’t consider it classless. It was 4th & 1, at field position where coaches frequently choose to go for it. Of course, the actual play call (a fake punt) didn’t work, because Gedeon dropped the snap, but I don’t mind the decision. Even in a game that is out of reach, I don’t see any objection to the coach attempting to retain possession, rather than giving it up.
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Honestly, I don’t find a lot to be classless when it comes to big-time football, as long as it’s within the rules. Faking a punt when you’re up big? It’s the other team’s job to stop them. Late hits, taking out knees, etc.? That stuff is classless. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to give MSU and OSU something to think about down the stretch. The only wrinkle Michigan has thrown out there on special teams is the two-point conversion against Rutgers. Now maybe they’ll be concerned with Gedeon and Michigan can run a fake punt in some other way.
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Pretty good predictions!
Great game for Michigan Heading into this the 3 main things I wanted to see were: the OL solidify, Speight make progress, and avoid any big injuries. All 3 were a major success.
Speight had his best game in a Michigan uniform to my eyes. He clearly loves throwing to Darboh but whatever – Darboh’s a pretty good player. Ideally he would look for Chesson a bit more often but this is a quibble.
The Braden/Bredeson combo makes a ton of sense. I assumed it would be JBB again, but I like this better since it was Bredeson (not JBB) pushing Newsome in camp. Keeping Cole at OC should be beneficial for this year and next. Time for Braden to step up.
While Evans got “his bell rung” I wouldn’t expect any significant impact to the team from injuries. Hopefully we can say the same a week from now against an opponent that has had trouble keeping it civil at times.
I had no issue with Peppers usage. Worth a shot. Sometimes plays don’t work.
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Smith may be “plodding” but he’s also one of the most elusive backs in the big ten per PFF.
Note his YPC are on par with Mr. Popularity – Ty Isaac, despite fewer stat-padding opportunities. This is repeated every year – people get impressed by the guy running in the 4th quarter of blowouts. I don’t mean this to knock Higdon here – he looks good to me too and I was pretty high on him as a recruit (based on nothing more than “Harbaugh likes him” and praise of his character), but I have no doubt he’d have a much harder time collectively against Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, Colorado than against bad teams who are down by 4 or 5 TDs.
To wit, now that Ty Isaac is higher than 5th on the depth chart for the first time in his career and is getting carries in meaningful situations – his YPC is at an all time low.
They say the backup QB is the most popular guy but I think there’s a case to be made for the 4th string RB who gets the ball in the 4th quarter…
Speaking of late-blowout superstars: Bobby Henderson has looked real good with the ball in his hands. LSMOTGOO
Sorry if I seem touchy on the subject. Not my intent really – I’d just like to see a little more positive appreciation for Smith especially now that he’s over 5 ypc and unquestioned starter in a deep and talented stable of Michigan backs.
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I like Smith and have no issues with him starting, but he is very limited and I am very glad that Harbaugh has a diverse group of backs at his disposal because I would hate to see the results of running Smith 25-30 times a game. When looking back at his career at Michigan, his effort and toughness will come to mind, but he will never be remembered as a guy who instilled fear into opposing teams. Higdon and Evans still have a chance to be the latter.
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what does “very limited” mean?
in what ways?
do you think Smith’s backups “instill fear”?
I don’t think Smith instills fear of breaking off an 80 yard run like Chris Evans does. But Chris Evans isn’t running through or over your ass either. I would argue Smith instills fear of a missed tackle and or a busted lip more than any back in the big ten.
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I don’t mean to speak for anyone, but Smith is certainly limited when it comes to speed and explosiveness. There’s a reason most of the toss sweeps go to the other backs (Higdon, Isaac, etc.), and there’s a reason that most of Smith’s toss sweep attempts end up gaining little. He did have a big run on a toss sweep this year, but that’s not the norm. On the one toss sweep he ran Saturday (IIRC), he had -5 yards.
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Smith has limited vision and speed and does not have any elite qualities which includes his tackle breaking ability. He is a good option to have on a team but he is not an every down back, and Higdon, Evans, and Isaac are more explosive options.
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You dodged the question about other backs. Are they “very limited” too? Even more “very limited” than Smith? Or just “not as good overall despite Smith being very limited”? Maybe all our backs are pretty terrible?
I happen to think they are pretty good, despite not having a Fournette-level talent.
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I think that the only area where Smith is better than the other backs is pass protection, he does break more tackles, but then again he has to break more tackles because he is slower and can’t juke as many players.
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Or maybe those other guys have to juke because they can’t break as many tackles.
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I agree with this. He isn’t Fournette in speed, but he almost never fumbles, (before last week, I can’t remember his last fumble) he rarely goes down on first contact, you can’t arm tackle him, and always falls forward. A good running back is more than someone who can break an 80 yard run. His vision is significantly better this year as well. And his pass blocking is best on the team. He has everything an NFL GM would want in a running back. IMO, very limited sounds like a C- player and Smith is at worst a B player.
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Yes. There is far more to a RB than “explosiveness”.
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Your post made me wonder about “situational stats” offered over at cfbstats.com. Here’s what I found with respect to the average/carry:
Smith:
Overall: 5.22
1st Half: 4.64
2nd Half: 6.38
1st Down: 4.85
2nd Down: 5.89
3rd Down: 2.33
Isaac:
Overall: 5.27
1st Half: 4.55
2nd Half: 5.66
1st Down: 3.80
2nd Down: 7.08
3rd Down: 4.86
No agenda, just posting stats I pulled from that site.
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I’m not sure what these situations would tell you about performance.
I’d love to see situations like “with win probability under 80%” or “against top 25 defense”, etc.
Unfortunately I can’t find success rate numbers anywhere but that would be interesting. That would tell you how for example a 4 yard run on 3rd and 2 is a success but a 7 yard run on 3rd and 15 is a total failure. YPC would consider this backward (7>4 QED), and I recall Nussmeir padding the running game stats by doing this sort of thing frequently.
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cfbstats.com has “situational stats” for RBs by:
All Plays
1st Half
2nd Half/OT
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
Overtime
1st Down
2nd Down
3rd Down
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go
3rd Down, 10+ To Go
4th Down 0
Own 1 To 20 Yd Ln
Own 21 To 39 Yd Ln
Own 40 To Opp 40 Yd Ln
Opp 39 To 21 Yd Ln
Opp 20 To 1 Yd Ln (RZ)
Winning By 15+ Pts
Winning By 8-14 Pts
Winning By 1-7 Pts
Tied 5 10
Losing By 1-7 Pts
Losing By 8-14 Pts
Losing By 15+ Pts
And “split” stats of:
All Games
at Home
on Road/Neutral Site
in Wins
in Losses
vs. Conference
vs. Non-Conference
vs. Ranked (AP)
vs. Unranked (AP)
vs. FBS (I-A)
vs. FCS (I-AA)
vs. FBS Winning
vs. FBS Non-Winning
vs. FBS Power
vs. FBS non-Power
in August/September
in October
in November
in December/January
With time and patience it would be possible to derive a proxy of what you’re getting at. For instance. the running success for certain “down and distance” situations would approximate a success factor of achieving first downs. Similarly, the “winning by” situation would be able to filter out blowout game running. The ranked vs. unranked would be a proxy of good teams vs. bad teams. Etc.
The stats there are really pretty cool. But the variations — though plentiful — are not unlimited.
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good to know. I’ll have to check that site out and dig in.
sample size issues may limit the usefulness but still could be some interesting stuff.
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Vs FBS winning teams
Smith is at 5.5 ypc while Isaac is at 4.6 ypc
In first halves
Smith is 4.7 ypc while Isaac is at 4.6 ypc
On 1st down
Smith is at 4.9 ypc while Isaac is at 3.8 ypc
When tied or losing
Smith is at 5.5 ypc while Isaac is at 4.8 ypc
Isaac has gotten 65% of his yards when Michigan is up by more than 2 TDs. Smith has gotten 38%.
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Thanks Don. Great info there if you take the time to sort through it.
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I’ve been tempted to dig in deep and try to build a data model I can slice-and-dice lots of different ways. But, sadly, I can’t get my company to pay me to do that, and I can’t get my wife to forgive me not doing other things around the house. 🙂
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I imagine Smith is “elusive” because he breaks tackles, not necessarily because he actually makes people whiff. Isaac plays a lot early in games, too. He’s not a guy who only plays in the fourth quarter. So I don’t really buy that kind of argument. Meanwhile, Isaac’s all-time low YPC is still higher than Smith’s all-time high, so that stat isn’t all that meaningful.
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Isaac plays a lot in the early part of games. — That’s exactly the point!
His YPC went way down when he started getting carries in tough situations. Smith’s gotten those carries since the end of his freshman year.
Put him in easy situations and he can put up stats too:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400547943
Isaac’s YPC is indeed .1 YPC better than Smith’s — despite getting a far greater share of his carries against weak and already-defeated defenses. He’s the backup for a reason. That was true 3 years ago at USC and it’s true today.
Evans and Higdon could end up being better backs than Smith, compared to them Smith has an experience advantage. But Isaac? He’s in the same class as Smith and his been at MIchigan since Harbaugh Day 1.
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Speed
Yes – Smith’s speed is limited. So was the legendary Mike Hart’s. Hart’s best season YPC was 5.2, same as Smith’s current YPC. Nobody focused incessantly on Hart’s limitation or called him “very limited” – we celebrated the great stuff he did and lived with the weakness.
Elusiveness
No – per PFF he is one of the most elusive backs in the conference. Yes it’s based on broken tackles instead of jukes. The implication that one form of missed tackle doesn’t count is…something.
Vision
No. Why did Ty Isaac have great vision as a freshman at USC, then have vision problems in 2015, and now again his vision looks good in 2016? The answer is the OL. Vision is mostly a function of blocking. It’s just a coincidence that Smith, Isaac, and Higdon are all showing improved vision this year and “look faster”? No it’s the OL.
The OL stats are way better than last year which is predictable and expected given the fact that we have the same OC for the first time in 4 years, 3 5th year seniors and Mason Cole at OC. Data and logic say the OL is much better at run blocking. But preconceptions are hard to shake.
Now for some subjective “hot” takes:
Nobody knows what Smith will do at the next level but there’s a decent chance he has the best NFL career of anyone since Anthony Thomas.
As for the idea that he’s not the primary back – the Wisconsin game is instructive. He played more than half the snaps and no other RB had even half as many carrys. That’s the one close game Michigan has played all year and Smith was the man.
Arguing that he’s “very limited” and that the other backs are superior (“unlimited”?) is arguing that you think you know more about RBs than Jim Harbaugh. Put down the mgoblog and go to bed y’all. Smith’s legit and everyday you argue otherwise you are fooling around.*
*Not saying Smith is the greatest back in M history or the most talented or whatever other strawmen people think of bringing up. I am saying he’s an excellent college player – probably a notch below Mike Hart. Certainly better than guys like Rawls, Cox, and Brandon Minor. Probably better than Toussaint though that one’s tougher to gauge under such different situations.
And there’s still nearly a half-season left. Smith’s not going to put up the cumulative stats that some of those guys did because he isn’t getting the carries they did. That’s thanks to an elite D (much like ’97) and a deep group of versatile backs (again, like ’97).
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I was impressed with Lovie Smith as well. Going for 2 late, seeing if they could find an advantage on a fake punt, etc. Seemed like a far better coached team than in years past, despite the one-sided outcome.
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On one of the sacks taken by Speight, if you look at the top of the screen, Deveon Smith is standing in the flat with no one within 10-maybe 20yds of him. Would have loved to see Speight him the ball just so Smith could get a good running start and truck some poor DB. While I don’t think Millen is bad an analyst as he was a GM, he credited Illinois D with great coverage on the sack saying no one was open.
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Millen made a lot of goofs. He was also insistent that Isaac’s “touchdown” was actually a touchdown, when the replay officials marked him out at the half-yard line.
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I’m not sure if that was targeting or not. I’ve seen much worse not called, and less egregious called. Regardless, the NCAA recently issued two clarifications of the targeting rule, including a definition of the crown of the helmet: the crown of the helmet starts from the area above the facemask to the dome of the helmet. Here’s a poor espn.com article: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/17679366/ncaa-issues-two-rules-interpretations-targeting-fouls-clarifies-definition-crown-helmet
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