I’m breaking up the preview for The Game into several installments, so here’s your look at Michigan’s rushing offense against Ohio State’s rushing defense.
We’re five days away.
MICHIGAN
Michigan’s offensive line is huge:
- LT: Jon Runyan, Jr. (RS Jr., 6’5″, 310)
- LG: Ben Bredeson (Jr., 6’5″, 320)
- C: Cesar Ruiz (So., 6’4″, 319)
- RG: Michael Onwenu (Jr., 6’3″, 350)
- RT: Juwann Bushell-Beatty (RS Sr., 6’6″, 318)
The offensive line has mostly moved up in recent weeks and ranks #49 in Line Yards, #89 in Opportunity Rate, #70 in Power Success Rate, and #30 in Stuff Rate. It’s not a great line, but they are massive and have eliminated a lot of the frustrating blown assignments that resulted in tackles for loss in previous years. This year they are #13 in tackles for loss allowed, while last year they were #101 and they were #97 in 2016. Against Indiana last week, Michigan had to substitute in redshirt sophomore offensive tackle Andrew Stueber (6’7″, 323) at right tackle for Bushell-Beatty since the latter has been dealing with an injury and an illness over the last couple weeks. Stueber graded out as Michigan’s top lineman in that game, according to Pro Football Focus.
As a team, Michigan is #23 in rushing (219 yards/game) and #27 in yards per carry (5.03). Starting running back Karan Higdon eclipsed 1,100 yards last week and averages 5.3 yards/carry with 10 touchdowns. Backup running backs Chris Evans (370 yards, 5.6 YPC, 4 TD) and Tru Wilson (323 yards, 6.2 YPC, 1 TD). Meanwhile, in the last five games, quarterback Shea Patterson has run the ball 37 times for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns – and he didn’t run the ball once against Rutgers two weeks ago. That’s 58 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game in games where the coaching staff planned to have him run the ball.
OHIO STATE
Ohio State’s defensive line is not particularly huge with defensive end Chase Young (6’5″, 240), defensive tackle Dre’mont Jones (6’3″, 295), nose tackle Robert Landers (6’1″, 283), and defensive end Jonathan Cooper (6’3″, 250). However, they are ranked highly in several categories, including Line Yards (#5), Opportunity Rate (#19), and Stuff Rate (#5). They’re #120 in Passing Down Line Yards. They’re tied for #24 in tackles for loss (80), led by Jones (12.0) and Young (9.5). Young is a former 5-star recruit who’s extremely quick and athletic.
The next three guys on their TFL list are linebackers: Tuf Borland (6’1″, 230), Pete Werner (6’3″, 236), and Malik Harrison (6’3″, 245). They have 9.0, 7.5, and 6.5 tackles for loss, respectively. All three guys are listed as starters, and while they are prone to go to a 4-2-5 look against spread looks, the number of offensive personnel sets that Michigan will run out there to include tight ends and fullbacks will probably keep them in a 4-3 for much of the game. The Buckeyes have had some solid performances (84 yards allowed to Indiana, 54 to Michigan State), but they just got torched for 339 yards and 5 touchdowns against Maryland, including 81- and 75-yard touchdown runs by Anthony McFarland.
OVERALL
While it would be nice to be able to replicate what McFarland did last week, Michigan doesn’t have anyone with his explosiveness. Decent rushing offenses have generally been okay against Ohio State, so I do think the Wolverines will be able to run the ball somewhat efficiently. Patterson will need to be a part of the running game, and it will be interesting to see if Michigan adds some wrinkles to the run game, such as the power read. Michigan does a pretty good job of game planning against Ohio State, and this year they have the talent and experience to produce against the Buckeyes.
Advantage: Michigan
