Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan vs. Minnesota

Good looking Minnesota girls are tough to find.

Rush Offense vs. Minnesota Rush Defense

Last week the Gophers allowed the much heralded D.J. McNorton to run for 92 yards and 1 touchdown on 13 carries.  McNorton plays for the North Dakota State Fighting Sioux Baby Rabbits, who have been terrorizing the likes of St. Francis and Lafayette so far this year.  North Dakota State’s quarterback added 37 yards on 6 carries.  Extrapolate that out over Denard Robinson’s 21 carries a game (minus the shortened Western Michigan exhibition) multiplied by Robinson’s talent, and that means Robinson alone should have approximately 800 yards rushing.  Factor in eight handoffs to Fitzgerald Toussaint, five to Vincent Smith, and one fumble by Stephen Hopkins, and Michigan should rush for close to 300 yards.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Minnesota Pass Defense
Cripple fight!  This is going to be like Stephen Hawking vs. Christopher Reeve Larry Flynt.  Denard’s passes are allergic to wide open receivers, and so are Minnesota’s defensive backs.  Denard will complete approximately seven passes; four of them will be hitches while he rolls to the receiver’s side, two will be play action slants over the middle, and one will be a screen pass.  The other eight passes will fall harmlessly to the ground or hit the umpire in the face.
Advantage: Stephen Hawking


Rush Defense vs. Minnesota Rush Offense
This all depends on whether quarterback MarQueis Gray – who’s questionable for Saturday – plays or not.  Historically, Michigan has trouble with running quarterbacks (who doesn’t?), and Gray is averaging almost 88 yards a game.  Gray was a wide receiver last year and probably should still be a wide receiver, because he’s 6’4″, 240 lbs. and throws like a punter.  Starting running back Duane Bennett is scary in the same way that every running back has been scary over the last few years; he’s not very good but Michigan has the ability to turn him into a quality back for a week.
Advantage: Minnesota


Pass Defense vs. Minnesota Pass Offense
Gray is barely completing 50% of his passes, and that’s true no matter what caliber of defense he’s facing.  He targets wideout Da’Jon McKnight most often, and McKnight is actually a decent player.  He’s 6’3″ and 211 lbs. and while he doesn’t have great speed, he has decent hands and provides a big target.  McKnight caught 9 passes for 146 yards against New Mexico State a few weeks ago.  Other than McKnight there aren’t many big threats to catch the ball.  Meanwhile, Michigan has been picking up the pass rush over the past couple weeks, and the Gophers are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.  Backup quarterback Max Shortell has red hair and, as we all learned from the NFL Draft this past year, no good quarterback has ever been a redhead.
Advantage: Michigan


Player notes

• Michigan recruited Minnesota LB Keanon Cooper out of Dallas (TX) Skyline a few years ago
• Michigan also recruited Minnesota LB Brendan Beal, who chose the Florida Gators before transferring to Minnesota
• Minnesota WR J.D. Pride was Seantrel Henderson’s best friend and the guy Minnesota offered in the hopes of Henderson becoming a Gopher.  Henderson went to USC Miami, anyway.  And as if this wasn’t apparent enough in the first place, Pride has been deemed unworthy at quarterback and is now buried on the bench at wideout.
• Former Michigan OG Tim McAvoy has two younger brothers – twins Kyle and Luke – who are freshmen on the offensive line for the Gophers.

Preview: Michigan vs. Western Michigan

It’s been a busy week, what with the 2011 Season Countdown finishing up, the beginning of college football, my real job, and all the coaching stuff.  I didn’t have time for a true game preview, but you’ve seen enough of those by now, anyway.

Predictions

• Starting running back Fitzgerald Toussaint goes for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Denard throws for 200 yards and runs for 100
• Kevin Koger catches a TD pass from Denard
• Somebody records career interception #1
• Michigan gets 4 of those “sack” thingies that I vaguely remember 
• Final score: Michigan 35, Western Michigan 14

Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

I hate Ohio State’s uniforms, so here’s a picture of Terrelle Pryor from high school.

Earlier in the year, I had designs on going to Columbus for this game.  I never really had the thought that this game would have an impact on the Big Ten Championship from Michigan’s side, but I thought it might be competitive for the first time in a few years.  I decided not to get tickets even prior to the Wisconsin game, and after watching Michigan get manhandled by the Badgers, I’m glad I didn’t make the purchase.  There will be better years to foray into the heart of Buckeye country.

Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense

This will be a battle Michigan must win to have any chance at a victory.  The Wolverines are the #10 rushing offense in the country (257 yards per game), and the Buckeyes are the #3 rush defense (86 yards per game).  Something has to give, and honestly, it will probably be the Ohio State defense.  The best rushing team Ohio State has faced was Wisconsin, who put up 188 yards at 4.37 yards a pop.  Earlier in the year, I railed against Rich Rodriguez’s heavy use of Denard Robinson in the running game to keep him fresh for late in the season.  Well, if ever there was a time to use Denard 30, 35, 40 times a game, this is it.  This is the game that matters, maybe for Rodriguez’s job, maybe for the perception of the program.  This game right here is why I didn’t want Robinson rushing the ball 29 times in a 20-point victory over UConn, but now it’s pedal to the medal.  Michigan’s running backs have largely been ineffective this season, although Vincent Smith has started to improve in the past couple weeks.  Michigan might also get a boost from the return of Fitzgerald Toussaint, a highly talented running back who has missed most of the season due to various injuries.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The reason the rushing game will be so important is because the passing game scares me.  Michigan has the #30 pass offense and the #16 pass efficiency, but Ohio State is #5 in pass defense and #7 in pass efficiency D.  Denard Robinson still struggles to read defenses and go through his progressions.  And while Ohio State doesn’t make a ton of sacks (only 18 on the year), they have picked off 17 passes; meanwhile, Denard Robinson has thrown 10 picks, with 9 of them coming in Michigan’s last six games.  His accuracy and confidence have waned throughout the year.  Michigan might be missing a deep threat in Darryl Stonum, who injured his ankle returning a kick against Wisconsin.  That would leave the Wolverines down its two starting outside receivers from the beginning of the year, including Martavious Odoms, who has missed most of the year.  There will be open receivers because Ohio State is going to commit to stopping the run, but whether Robinson can hit those receivers downfield is a bit of a crapshoot.
Advantage: Ohio State

Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
Ummm . . . yeah.  So.  Michigan is bad at stopping the run.  This is well known.  While Wisconsin’s offensive line and running backs are more physical than Ohio State’s, Michigan’s defense effectively refused to stop the run against the Badgers, giving up 6.32 yards a carry.  And when you keep the ball on the ground 56 times in one game, it’s not like those yards came on surprise draws or reverses.  Nope, Wisconsin lined it up and simply dominated the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State would be wise to follow Wisconsin’s blueprint.  Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has thrown 10 interceptions himself; so while Michigan’s pass rush isn’t fearsome and Michigan’s secondary is well below average, why take the chance at putting the ball in the air?
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The Buckeyes are the #17 rushing offense, so they don’t need to pass the ball a ton; they average 230 passing yards a game, which is a middling 55th in the country.  But as much as Michigan fans like to make fun of the way Pryor throws the football, he ranks 14th in the country in passing efficiency.  It might be ugly, but it’s effective.  Ohio State has two solid receivers in Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey, and Pryor has the arm strength and touch to deliver deep balls consistently.  On the other hand, Michigan’s secondary is a work in progress.  Lacking its top two cornerbacks from the pre-season (Troy Woolfolk, J.T. Floyd) due to injury, it’s been mix-and-match since then.  But a strange thing seems to have happened since then – the secondary seems to be improving.  James Rogers has three interceptions in the last two games; true freshman Courtney Avery might already be a better cover corner than the guy he replaced (Floyd); and freshman free safety Ray Vinopal lacks the unfortunate quality of being a linebacker.  None of this is to say that Michigan will be great against the pass, but they should perform better than what we thought several weeks ago.
Advantage: Ohio State

Final Predictions

• Based on the lack of success against Wisconsin, Michigan runs a good deal of 4-man fronts
• Denard Robinson throws a pair of interceptions
• Fitzgerald Toussaint gets a couple carries and then gets injured
• Kelvin Grady leads the team in receiving
• Ohio State 45, Michigan 27

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Running back James White

Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense
Wisconsin has the #25 rushing defense in the country, giving up only 3.8 yards per carry and 125 yards per game.  Meanwhile, Michigan is the #9 rushing offense, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 266 yards per game.  One way or the other, one of these units is going to be disappointed on Sunday.  Michigan’s running game hasn’t been shut down yet this year.  When teams have limited Denard Robinson’s running, the tailbacks have picked up the slack.  And when teams take away the tailbacks, Robinson seems to run free.  I will be interested to see what the Badgers do on Saturday.  It looks to me like Robinson has started to wear down from various nagging injuries.  I wonder if Wisconsin might take the chance of crashing down on the running backs, playing some Cover 0, and daring Robinson to beat them.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense
Wisconsin is #28 in pass defense, but a mediocre #51 in pass efficiency defense.  On the other side, Denard Robinson is the #14 passer in the country . . . with very little dropoff to backup Tate Forcier, since the team is still #14 overall in efficiency.  If all things are working well for Robinson, he should have a good day and make some good plays through the air.  Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, Robinson’s play has deteriorated somewhat in the Big Ten; in the last five games, Robinson’s 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions have looked less than stellar.  Over that five-game stretch, Robinson’s PER is 138.37 and that would rank him at #36 in the country.  He’s not stinking the joint up, but he’s not lighting the world on fire, either.  That stretch of mediocre play might continue with left tackle Taylor Lewan’s availability in question due to a concussion and right tackle Perry Dorrestein’s nagging knee injury.  Michigan isn’t far from playing backup Mark Huyge at left tackle and untested redshirt freshman Michael Schofield at right tackle.  That could be troublesome for Michigan’s quarterback.  Luckily, Michigan’s receivers – Junior Hemingway and Roy Roundtree, in particular – are playing great football and should be able to take advantage of mismatches against a pedestrian secondary.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Wisconsin Rush Offense
This is where it really looks ugly for Michigan, and this is nothing new.  Michigan’s coaches have made some positive moves in recent weeks, putting Cameron Gordon at outside linebacker instead of free safety, Craig Roh (finally!) at defensive end instead of linebacker, and Obi Ezeh (finally!) at outside linebacker rather than in the middle.  If banged-up starters Jonas Mouton and Mike Martin can play at a high level, those are steps in the right direction.  But Wisconsin is one of the top rushing units in the country, ranking #12 overall.  The good news is that starting Panzer VIII Maus running back John Clay will miss the game due to injury.  The bad news is that top backup James White averages more yards per carry (6.8) than Clay (5.4); even third-string Montee Ball averages 5.6 yards per carry.  Does that mean Wisconsin’s running backs are great?  Absolutely not.  It means that Wisconsin’s offensive linemen are all named Vinnie Jones and make a habit of saying “I’m the Juggernaut, bitch!”  They are big and mean and really, really hate Ellen Page.
Advantage: Wisconsin

Pass Defense vs. Wisconsin Pass Offense
One place that Michigan seems to be making some strides is in pass defense.  Cornerback Courtney Avery might be a downgrade from J.T. Floyd in terms of experience, but I’m convinced that Avery will be a better defensive back than Floyd in the long run.  Avery is a quick learner and possesses better agility and hips than Floyd has ever shown.  Meanwhile, the linebackers replacing Craig Roh at SAM (J.B. Fitzgerald, Obi Ezeh) aren’t fluid in space, but they’re better off covering curl zones than a 6’5″, 250 lb. defensive end.  Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien has the #8 PER in the country and averages 8.85 yards per attempt, though.  The combination of Wisconsin’s offensive line, running backs, and Tolzien leaves chances for big plays at any time.  Despite an effective pass offense, I think big plays through the air will be limited by improving play and confidence in the secondary.  Even so, Wisconsin should be able to pick up yards in chunks.
Advantage: Wisconsin

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson breaks 100 yards rushing for the eighth time this year
• James Rogers proves prophetic and Wisconsin fails to score 83 points
• James White averages fewer than 6.8 yards per carry
• Michigan’s defense stops the big play but dies a slow death
• Wisconsin 35, Michigan 27

Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure had 150 yards rushing and averaged over 7 yards a carry in 2009.

It just so happens that my personal schedule hasn’t left me much time over the past couple days.  I don’t have time for a full preview, and even a full preview would say the same thing it always does: Michigan’s offense has the advantage, and no matter how bad the offense, the Wolverines’ defense will be worse. 

The problems on defense have only been exacerbated by this week’s loss of cornerback J.T. Floyd to an ankle injury and the ongoing ankle problems for nose tackle Mike Martin.  Mediocre Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will likely look like the Second Coming of . . . well . . . Matt McGloin and shred Michigan’s defense.

Meanwhile, Illinois is #15 in total defense and #12 in scoring defense.

I do not expect good things to happen.

Final Predictions

• Running back Mikel Leshoure will run for a billion yards
• Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will pass for a billion yards
• Vincent Smith will get a handful of carries and do virtually nothing
• Denard Robinson will run for a bunch of yards, get hurt, and throw the ball erratically (not necessarily in that order)
• Illinois 38, Michigan 27