Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

RUSH OFFENSE vs. WISCONSIN RUSH DEFENSE

Michigan has sneaked into the top 30 in rushing offense with almost 230 yards/game, and they’ve managed to get to #20 in yards/carry at 5.41 without a QB who’s a threat to run. Four players have between 22 and 39 carries, so it’s a running-back-by-committee situation, even if De’Veon Smith is the unquestioned starter. In fact, the numbers look like vintage Wisconsin running backs with all four of those guys (Smith, Ty Isaac, Karan Higdon, Chris Evans) averaging 4.6 to 7.3 yards/carry. The offensive line had perhaps its best performance of the year against Penn State last week, though PSU’s skeleton crew of linebackers were unable to do much. I named Erik Magnuson the MVP of the game, and Pro Football Focus ended up agreeing that he was very good. Wisconsin is #10 in rush defense, giving up just over 80 yards/game, and they’re #27 with 3.19 yards allowed/carry. They have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season, and that includes games against potential Heisman winner Leonard Fournette and run-heavy Michigan State. Inside linebacker Jack Cichy (6’2″, 233 lbs.) leads the team with 23 tackles, and outside linebacker T.J. Watt (J.J.’s 6’5″, 243 lb. brother) is second with 18 stops. Watt is tough on the edge, but Cichy is the run-stopper up the middle and has the ability to slice into gaps for TFLs. This is the best linebacker crew Michigan will face all season, except maybe Ohio State. I really like the way they play ball. The defensive line is so-so, despite having a 340 lb. nose tackle in Olive Sagapolu. Michigan has put up good stats against weak or weakened opponents this year, but the Badgers will be tough to run against, even if the rumors are true that outside linebacker Vince Biegel won’t play due to injury (UPDATE: while writing this, he was indeed ruled out after having foot surgery).
Advantage: Wisconsin

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Preview: Michigan vs. Penn State

This is Zoe Pugh, who is supposedly a PSU student (image via 10worthy)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH DEFENSE

Michigan is averaging 198 yards/game on the ground, which is #52 in the country, and they’re doing it at 4.9 yards/carry, which is 49th. The Wolverines have also scored 9 rushing touchdowns, which is good enough to be tied for 19th. The team’s leading rusher is still backup Chris Evans, boosted by his 8-carry, 112-yard performance against Hawaii in the opener; he has added 19 carries for just 45 yards since. Starter De’Veon Smith had his best game of the year last week when he carried 11 times for 87 yards. Michigan ran 7 variations of jet sweeps last week, getting the ball to the likes of Jehu Chesson, Eddie McDoom, and Jabrill Peppers. It’s actually rather impressive that they have so many jet sweeps in their repertoire. The Nittany Lions are a little weak on the edge, and Michigan has struggled to create a push up front, so I imagine the Wolverines will continue to use the jet sweep this week; Chesson had a 20-yarder against PSU last year. Penn State is #92 against the run (176 yards allowed/game) and tied for #84 in yards allowed/carry (4.23). Those aren’t impressive stats, considering two of the first three opponents were Kent State and Temple (the other is Pitt, a pretty decent team). The two leading tacklers are safeties Marcus Allen (21) and Malik Golden (18), while the next two on the list are linebackers who are now injured. In fact, PSU runs a 4-3 defense but all three starting linebackers are hurt. Defensive tackle Parker Cothren and defensive end Torrence Brown are the leading active TFL guys with 3.0 each.
Advantage: Michigan

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Preview: Michigan vs. Colorado

RUSH OFFENSE vs. COLORADO RUSH DEFENSE

Michigan is #45 in the country in rushing offense with 212.5 yards/game. They’re #36 in yards per carry (5.31) despite not having a running threat at quarterback. Freshman RB Chris Evans has received the most carries through two games, but starter De’Veon Smith missed a good chunk of game one after a rib injury. Those two seem to be the top two runners at this point, with Ty Isaac also getting a fair amount of looks with the top group. I think Michigan has been telegraphing their toss sweeps so far, though hopefully that’s due to fairly weak opponents. Over the past few years, the left side of the line has seemed to be strongest, but this year it appears to be center Mason Cole, right guard Kyle Kalis, and right tackle Erik Magnuson doing the heavy lifting. Starting left guard Ben Braden did not look very good last week when he returned from injury. Colorado is #29 in rush defense (95.5 yards/game) and is #74 in yards allowed per carry (3.98). That’s not a great ranking, especially when considering that the Buffaloes have only faced Colorado State and an FBS team so far. They run a 3-4 defense with a big nose tackle (Josh Lupou is 6’3″, 325 lbs.), and there’s a lot of experience all the way across the defense. The linebackers are undersized, and weakside inside linebacker Kenneth Olugbode (6’1″, 220 lbs.) is second on the team with 9 tackles. Both the outside linebackers are 230 lbs., and the game is mostly about speed. I’m not impressed with Lupou at NT and think Mason Cole can wear him down. If Michigan wants to run the ball, they need to run right at this 3-4 defense with De’Veon Smith and get them tired.
Advantage: Michigan

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Preview: Michigan vs. Central Florida

RUSH OFFENSE vs. UCF RUSH DEFENSE

After one week, Michigan is #14 in the country with 306 rushing yards/game. The biggest chunk of that yardage came from freshman third-stringer Chris Evans, who had 112 yards on just 8 carries. Primary backup Ty Isaac had 9 carries for 52 yards. The starter hasn’t been mentioned yet, because De’Veon Smith had a ho-hum day (6 carries, 27 yards) before leaving with a rib injury. Those three players represent speed (Evans), power (Smith), and a nice mix of the two (Isaac). Fifth year senior Drake Johnson did not play, and sophomore Karan Higdon provides depth. Up front, Michigan has a mix of experience and talent. Fifth year senior left guard Ben Braden missed the Hawaii game but should come back this week, but even if he doesn’t, redshirt junior Pat Kugler filled in fairly well for him last week. Jim Harbaugh said fifth year senior right tackle Erik Magnuson graded out the best. Elsewhere, Michigan has mammoth sophomore left tackle Grant Newsome, junior Mason Cole at center, and fifth year senior Kyle Kalis at right guard. Central Florida is #32 in rushing yards allowed (85.0) and #38 in rushing average against (2.66), though those numbers came against FCS team South Dakota State. UCF employs a 3-4 defense. The top seven tacklers last week were linebackers, and the next three were defensive backs. You have to go all the way down to 11th before finding a defensive lineman. Leading tackler Mark Rucker, a fifth year senior inside linebacker, is 5’9″, 217 lbs. Freshman starting defensive end Trysten Hill (6’1″, 295 lbs.), nose tackle Jamiyus Pittman (6’0″, 295 lbs.), and defensive end Tony Guerad (6’3″, 275 lbs.) make up the starting line. One guy to watch is redshirt junior outside linebacker Shaquern Griffin (6’1″, 213 lbs.). The biggest linebacker is 230 lbs. and the biggest lineman in the rotation is 295, so it’s not a very big front seven. Michigan should be able to run the ball with some regularity.
Advantage: Michigan

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Mini-preview: Michigan vs. Hawaii

Apologies for the shortened preview, but finishing the 2016 Season Countdown, the 2016 season predictions, etc. consumed my time this week.

TIME: 12:00 p.m. EST
TV: ESPN

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED:

Michigan beat Hawaii by a score of 48-17 in 1998, the year after the Wolverines won the national championship. Anthony Thomas ran for 183 yards and 4 touchdowns, and Tom Brady went 9/10 with 2 touchdown passes to Tai Streets.

PREDICTIONS

• Wilton Speight starts at QB
• De’Veon Smith scores the first touchdown and gains 80 yards on the ground
• Eddie McDoom scores his first career touchdown
• Dymonte Thomas makes his first career interception
• Michigan 42, Hawaii 7

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