Tag: game preview

Citrus Bowl Preview: Special Teams, Intangibles, and Predictions

Antonio Callaway

I previously previewed:

• Michigan’s Offense vs. Florida’s Defense
• Michigan’s Defense vs. Florida’s Offense
• Florida’s roster makeup

SPECIAL TEAMS
Michigan kicker offer Kenny Allen has the Wolverines at #40 in touchback percentage (47%). He is generally pretty good at his job. He is also pretty good at placekicking, where he is #34 nationally on field goals (16/20, 80%) and tied for #1 on extra points (41/41, 100%). He might need to revisit his punting skills, though, because starting punter Blake O’Neill is rumored to be out with a knee injury. O’Neill was #63 in punting average, but he was excellent at pinning opponents deep. Allen has punted just once in his career, a 51-yarder in 2013. Considering Florida’s defense, he should get several opportunities to prove his ability to do a third job. Michigan is #3 in kickoff return average at 28.4 yards/return. Jabrill Peppers is a capable returner, but he will probably miss the game due to injury. And anyway, the majority of kickoff returns have been handled by Jourdan Lewis (25.2 yards/return), while the lone return TD was by Jehu Chesson (46 yards/return on 3 attempts). Whether it’s Lewis, Chesson, or someone the coaching staff deems even better, the Wolverines are pretty solid. (Aside: Did you know that 63 teams – or about half of FBS teams – do not have a kickoff return of 60+ yards?) Meanwhile, Peppers is the only player to have handled even a single punt this season and averaged 11.4 yards/return, which was #21 nationally. I imagine that we might see Lewis back there, although Amara Darboh has experience at just being a sure-handed punt returner with little big-play ability.

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Citrus Bowl Preview: Michigan Offense vs. Florida Defense

Jonathan Bullard (#90)

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Yesterday, I posted the preview on Michigan’s Defense vs. Florida’s Offense.

Michigan Quarterbacks/Tight Ends/Wide Receivers vs. Florida Defensive Backs
Michigan fifth year senior QB Jake Rudock (6’3″, 208) had a rocky start, but his finish to the regular season was outstanding until he injured his shoulder against Ohio State in the finale. In the final month, Rudock completed over 67% of his passes for 1,296 yards on 9.2 yards/attempt with 11 TDs and just 2 INTs. He settled in to become comfortable with the offense, and he started reading the whole field rather than the half of the field that he was limited to during his struggles. That emergence was coupled with redshirt junior WR Jehu Chesson’s (6’3″, 207), who had 25 catches for 423 yards (16.9 yards/catch) and 6 TDs during that stretch. Classmate WR Amara Darboh (6’2″, 216) led the team in receptions, though his yards per catch were lower than Chesson’s or starting TE Jake Butt’s (6’6″, 249). Butt was the conference’s best tight end with 48 receptions, 620 yards, and 3 TDs. The only other TE or WR with double-digit receptions was senior TE A.J. Williams (6’6″, 285), who had 12 catches for 129 yards. We should also see a fair amount of freshman slot receiver Grant Perry (6’0″, 185) and TE Khalid Hill (6’2″, 270), who have 12 catches for 124 yards between them. If Rudock goes down, the backup is a very unproven redshirt freshman Wilton Speight (6’6″, 235), who threw the game-winning TD against Minnesota but otherwise is 9/25 for 73 yards and 1 INT. Rudock is expected to be healthy-ish for the bowl game, but if he re-injures that shoulder, Michigan could very well be done for if they don’t already have a lead.

Florida has one of the best secondaries in the country, led by an excellent cornerback duo of junior Vernon Hargreaves III (5’11”, 199) and sophomore Jalen Tabor (6’0″, 191); each of them has 4 interceptions, and Tabor is #13 in the country with 14 pass breakups. Florida spends a lot of time in a nickel, three-safety look. Senior safety/slot corner Brian Poole (5’10”, 211) has broken up 10 passes of his own, junior safety Keanu Neal (6’1″, 216) is third on the team with 84 tackles, and junior safety Marcus Maye (6’0″, 207) is fourth with 73. All of those guys can come up and tackle, and they act as extra linebackers. However, they are not the most athletic, ballhawking group of safeties, and the middle of the field can be taken advantage of in the passing game. Florida finished #10 in passing yards allowed (175 per game) and #11 in passer rating defense. This is still a tough matchup for a largely unimposing group of wideouts.

Advantage: Florida

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Citrus Bowl Preview: Florida roster notes

Valdez Showers

Players Michigan recruited coming out of high school:

• LB Alex Anzalone: 6 tackles
• WR Alvin Bailey: 3 catches, 49 yards
• DT Khairi Clark: 15 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 sack, 1 PBU
• CB Vernon Hargreaves III: 31 tackles, 4 INT, 4 PBU
• DE CeCe Jefferson: 28 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks
• S Marcus Maye: 73 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 INT, 4 FF, 6 PBU
• OT Andrew Mike: 3 games played
• S Brian Poole: 36 tackles, 3.5 TFL, .5 sacks, 10 PBU
• LB Matt Rolin: 9 tackles, .5 TFL
• WR Valdez Showers: 6 catches, 64 yards
• CB Jalen Tabor: 33 tackles, 3 TFL, 1 sack, 4 INT (2 TD), 14 PBU
• S Quincy Wilson: 26 tackles, 2 INT, 5 PBU

Hit the jump for a few more notes.

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Preview: Michigan vs. Ohio State

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Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
Michigan is tied for #82 nationally with 161 yards/game on the ground, and they are #77 with 4.23 yards/carry. The Wolverines have a wacky rotation at running back, which has seen leading rusher De’Veon Smith (621 yards, 4.3 yards/carry, 6 TDs) get the bulk of the carries, two 5-star recruits sit on the bench, an injured Drake Johnson grab a carry here or there, and the backup fullback become a steady contributor. Seven players have rushed for 140+ yards this year, including quarterback Jake Rudock and wide receiver Jehu Chesson. The Wolverines are #72 in Adjusted Line Yards and #63 in Power Success Rate. The past two weeks have seen way too many false starts, illegal snaps, and other penalties. Ohio State allows 133 yards/game and is #33 in the country in that category. They are #18 in yardage against/carry at 3.41. In their 4-3 defense, sophomore middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan leads the team with 105 tackles while strongside linebacker Josh Perry is second with 88. Junior defensive end Joey Bosa’s sack numbers are down this year, but he has still made 15 tackles for loss, good enough for #22 nationally. As a team, the Buckeyes are #40 in tackles for loss. The numbers aren’t great, but talent-wise, Ohio State’s front will be as good as or better than any other team Michigan has faced this year. The Wolverines will struggle, but they will likely attempt to get the ball in the hands of two-way player Jabrill Peppers (11 carries, 43 yards, 2 TDs) for a little spark.
Advantage: Ohio State

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Preview: Michigan at Penn State

Rush Offense vs. Penn State Rush Defense
Michigan is #67 in rushing yards/game with 169, and they are tied for #69 in the country – with Utah! – at 4.33 yards/carry. The Wolverines mix and match in the backfield, but the guys seeing the most crunch-time carries are De’Veon Smith (582 yards, 4.4 yards/carry, 5 TDs) and Drake Johnson (212 yards, 4.5 yards/carry, 3 TDs). Michigan also makes heavy use of the fullback, even using 243 lb. Sione Houma as a short-yardage back (131 yards, 4.9 yards/carry, 3 TDs). Michigan has had the same starting lineup on the offensive line all year. That’s neither a good thing or a bad thing – the Wolverines are rated perfectly average at 100.7 in Adjusted Line Yards, which is #73 in the country. The problem with the running game is that none of Michigan’s backs are dangerous unless Smith can break a few tackles. Meanwhile, Penn State is #48 in rushing defense (152 yards/game) and #39 in yards allowed/carry (3.8). Sophomore middle linebacker Jason Cabinda (6’1″, 245 lbs.) leads the team with 71 tackles, followed by monster defensive tackle Austin Johnson (6’4″, 323 lbs.) with 64 and then sophomore safety Marcus Allen with 57. The Nittany Lions make a ton of plays in the backfield, as four of them have double-digit tackles for loss and they are #2 in tackles for loss with 93. The most effective run game penetrator is Michigan native Anthony Zettel, a 6’4″, 284 lb. tackle. Michigan does not run the ball well, and PSU has given up 220+ yards on the ground in four of their last six games, but it’s going to be tough sledding for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Penn State

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