Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan vs. Appalachian State

Yep, she attended school at Appalachian State. And her name is Caitlin Upton.

Run vs. Appalachian State Defense
Michigan’s running game has been dissected ad nauseum all last season and in the off-season. Michigan brought in a new offensive coordinator who will concentrate more on the inside zone play, whereas Al Borges used a mish-mash of schemes and Rich Rodriguez was mostly an outside zone guy. Michigan is very inexperienced on the OL and will be without its best lineman for this game (Graham Glasgow, suspended 1 game for a DUI). In the backfield, Michigan’s top two backs have been neck-and-neck so far, with sophomore Derrick Green taking the lead over similarly built sophomore De’Veon Smith. Meanwhile, Appalachian State runs a 3-4 defense with a quality nose tackle in Tyson Fernandez (6’2″, 330 lbs.), who will be a problem for center Jack Miller (6’4″, 295 lbs.). Both inside linebackers are 235 lbs., but the outside guys are small-ish (anywhere from 185-210 lbs.). For a 3-4 that often uses defensive tackle-sized ends, the defensive ends are manageable in size, but they’ll be facing off against first-time starters at the tackle positions. I like Green’s upside more, but I actually prefer Smith to see more carries, because he’s more of a bruiser and could wear down the defense; Green’s a guy who could bust a couple long runs in the second half against a sluggish defense. I like the backs once they get to the second level, but until Michigan proves they can block at the first level . . .
Advantage: Appalachian State

Pass vs. Appalachian State Defense
Michigan has a dynamic quarterback in Devin Gardner who is under the tutelage of an up-and-coming quarterback guru in Doug Nussmeier. That will be a good combination. The top receiver will be tight end-sized Devin Funchess, who supposedly ran a forty in the 4.3’s over the summer. Flanker Jehu Chesson improved steadily throughout last year and can take the top off the defense – as well as deliver some devastating blocks. Slot guy Dennis Norfleet is a pint-sized dynamo. All of them are big-play threats, and Michigan will use three or four receivers quite a bit without tight end Jake Butt being available. The pass protection is shaky, but Appalachian State will have to generate a pass rush by blitzing – something that Gardner and his receivers should be able to counter. The Mountaineers will probably match up 6’2″, 190 lb. cornerback Jordan Ford with Funchess whenever possible, but the Wolverines have a decided size advantage on the edges. Strong safety A.J. Howard (5’11”, 185 lbs.) is a true freshman. If Michigan can establish any kind of running identity, the play action pass should be a large factor. If the Wolverines still struggle to run the ball, Michigan should be able to spread it out a little bit and make some things happen. Gardner has the ability to get out of the pocket and make things happen if protection breaks down, too.
Advantage: Michigan


Run Defense vs. Appalachian State Offense
Michigan’s good recruiting classes over the past few years are matriculating through the ranks, and this should be the year when Michigan takes a step forward with the talent level on the field. The Wolverines have size at the defensive tackle positions, plus a 282 lb. backup nose tackle (Maurice Hurst, Jr.) who can shoot gaps in certain situations. Strongside end Brennen Beyer is undersized for the position, but he uses good technique and can hold his ground. Michigan also has a stable of good linebackers who can make solid tackles and plays in the backfield. The center, right guard, and right tackle spots are all listed with an “or” between two players, so it’s tough to say how much size they’ll have. Either way, the strength appears to be the left side of the line. Sophomore running back Marcus Cox (5’10”, 200 lbs.) had 1,250 rushing yards, 559 receiving yards, and 21 total touchdowns in 2013. He will be a multi-purpose threat who will be tough to corral, but he is the only proven commodity. The primary backup is redshirt freshman Terrence Upshaw (5’10”, 200 lbs.), who is less of a big-play threat and more of a short yardage guy. I respect Cox’s abilities if he can get into open space, but Michigan has enough athletes to keep him sufficiently in check.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Defense vs. Appalachian State Offense
Michigan has not had a dynamic pass rush in recent years, but there should be at least a slight improvement this season. Especially against a team that often uses four wide receivers, weakside end Frank Clark should have a good day and strongside end Brennen Beyer’s lack of size won’t hurt him as much. Michigan also has a couple solid pass rushers at defensive tackle in Willie Henry and Chris Wormley, not to mention some good blitzers at linebacker in Jake Ryan and Ben Gedeon. Michigan has a very good crew of corners, so Appalachian State will probably try to attack the young and relatively unproven safeties. Junior quarterback Kameron Bryant (6’1″, 205 lbs.) completed 71% of his passes for 2,713 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions as a part-time starter last year, but the top returning pass catcher is running back Cox. None of the returning wideouts caught more than Malachi Jones’s 31 receptions or 293 yards, and none caught more than Simms McElfresh’s 2 touchdowns. Jones and his backup are both a little over 6’0″ tall, but every other receiver on the two-deep is 5’11” or shorter. Michigan has allowed lots of short passes in recent years but come up to tackle. This year we’ll see some tighter, perhaps riskier coverages. Michigan might get burned over the top on occasion, but overall, the pass defense should improve.
Advantage: Michigan

Roster Notes

• Appalachian State has zero players or coaches from the state of Michigan

Predictions

• Devin Funchess goes over 100 yards with 2 touchdowns
• Jabrill Peppers returns a punt for a touchdown
• Derrick Green leads the team with 80 yards rushing
• The defense allows 250 total yards
• Michigan 34, Appalachian State 7

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Final Thoughts

I have completed in-depth previews of each of the position comparisons over the past couple weeks, and they’re more exhaustive than anything else I’ve read in the blogosphere. I had hoped to do some play breakdowns, but the holidays and traveling got in the way. Here are the links to each section:

Quarterbacks
Running backs
Wide receivers and tight ends
Offensive line
Defensive line
Linebackers
Defensive backs
Special teams

INJURY NEWS
The most significant injury news (and a change from the above preview) is that Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner will miss the bowl game with a broken foot, which he suffered in the Ohio State game. His replacement will be true freshman Shane Morris, who is 5/9 for 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception in very limited time this year. Obviously, this will be his first start. Morris came out of high school with a big arm, but he’s not the most polished quarterback to come out of high school. He tends to stare down his receivers, and his accuracy has been questioned. In high school – even in 7-on-7 tournaments – the lefty seemed to throw almost exclusively to his left. I would expect Kansas State defensive coordinator Tom Hayes to blitz Morris endlessly, considering he’s just a pup and, oh by the way, Michigan’s offensive line has struggled mightily this year. That’s a bad combination if you’re a Wolverines fan.

In other injury news, Kansas State will get perhaps their best player back in the form of safety Ty Zimmerman. He was listed as questionable for the bowl game after missing the final two regular season games.

ROSTER NOTES

• Kansas State has no players from the state of Michigan.
• Linebackers coach Mike Cox is named Mike Cox(!). Also, he spent four years as Michigan State’s linebackers coach (2003-2006).
• Head coach Bill Snyder’s son is special teams coach and associate head coach Sean Snyder. Sean Snyder’s son (and thus Bill’s grandson) is redshirt junior walk-on linebacker Tate Snyder. Tate doesn’t play much, but it’s still pretty cool to have three generations of Snyders on one team.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Special Teams

Kansas State returner Tramaine Thompson is dangerous with the ball in his hands.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The Wolverines are in pretty bad shape when it comes to special teams, but it could be worse. Fifth year senior placekicker Brendan Gibbons has been ruled out of the bowl game with a groin injury, and senior punter Will Hagerup has been suspended for the entire season, so all the kicking duties will be up to junior Matt Wile (6’2″, 216 lbs.). Wile is pretty experienced for being a backup punter and kicker, but when it comes to kicking field goals, he hasn’t been in many pressure situations. Wile is 1/3 on field goals this year, 5/5 on extra points, and averages 40.6 yards/punt. He’s been the kickoff guy all year and gets a 49.3% touchback rate. Sophomore Dennis Norfleet (5’7″, 169 lbs.) has 36 kickoff returns for 850 yards and a 23.6-yard average. Fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) and senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) have combined for 12 punt returns and 76 yards, so they’re not much of a threat.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Kenny Allen (6’3″, 226 lbs.) will be the backup kicker and punter, and he has 1 punt this year for 51 yards. Dileo has averaged 19.2 yards on 5 returns, and redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) has averaged 18 yards on 2 returns.

KANSAS STATE

Starters: The Wildcats have two excellent returners. One is fifth year senior punt returner Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.), who has averaged 20.2 yards/return this year with a long of 79 yards; teams respect him so much that they’ve only given him a chance to return 9 punts. Junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.) is the kick returner with a 25.5-yard average, and while he hasn’t yet returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2013, he had 2 scores in each of the past two seasons. Redshirt junior Mark Krause (5’11”, 218 lbs.) averages 41.3 yards/punt and has landed 17 inside the 20-yard line. Redshirt sophomore Jack Cantele (6’0″, 193 lbs.) is 11/13 on field goals and 40/41 on extra points, but he was injured prior to KSU’s final regular season game and may not be back for the bowl game.
Backups: Thompson has returned 2 kickoffs this year, but one was for a 96-yard touchdown. Backup kicker Ian Patterson (5’11”, 233 lbs.), a redshirt freshman, is 2/3 on field goals and 8/8 on extra points; he has also taken over kickoff duties, where he has a touchback rate almost twice as high as Cantele’s.

THE TAKEAWAY
The Wolverines haven’t been particularly strong on special teams under Brady Hoke, but they haven’t been terrible, either. They did block a punt and return it for a touchdown against Central Michigan, and the game-tying end-of-regulation field goal against Northwestern was the #4 play in the Big Ten this year, according to BTN Live. Unfortunately, battle-tested Brendan Gibbons is out, and Wile has been erratic as a kicker and as a punter. Michigan’s return games have been exciting but fruitless with Norfleet, Gallon, and Dileo. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a couple all-conference-caliber returners in Lockett and Thompson, and Cantele is a solid kicker if healthy. The Wolverines did allow a punt return touchdown to South Carolina’s Ace Sanders in last year’s bowl game, so they’ve been susceptible to special teams breakdowns at times. Wile might be able to negate Lockett’s return abilities because he’s pretty good at kicking touchbacks, and Michigan has some aggressive players on punt coverage, but overall, this is looking like an advantage for . . .

ADVANTAGE: Kansas State

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Defensive Backs

Safety Ty Zimmerman is a potential game-changer at safety if he’s healthy.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The headliner of this group is redshirt sophomore Blake Countess (5’10”, 182 lbs.), who’s tied for #5 in the country with 6 picks and is #3 in return yards with 169, including a touchdown. He also has 42 tackles and 4 pass breakups to his name. Countess starts on the outside but will slide into the slot when Michigan goes to its nickel packages. The other starter at corner is junior Raymon Taylor (5’10”, 183 lbs.), who’s tied for the team lead with 81 tackles and has 4 picks and 9 pass breakups of his own. Taylor racks up a lot of tackles because teams attack him instead of Countess, but he’s a solid tackler when receivers catch the ball near him. The other sure starter in the defensive backfield is fifth year senior strong safety Thomas Gordon (5’11”, 213 lbs.), a guy who lacks speed and isn’t a headhunter but who usually seems to be in the right spot; he has 49 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 2 pass breakups this year despite missing two games. The likely starter at free safety is sophomore Jarrod Wilson (6’2″, 200 lbs.), a potentially violent hitter who sometimes gets caught out of position; he has 45 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 2 interceptions, and 2 pass breakups.
Backups: Wilson has lost some playing time to senior Courtney Avery (5’11”, 175 lbs.), who has bounced back and forth between corner, slot corner, and safety throughout his career; he has 30 tackles and .5 sacks on the year but looks to have lost a step after an injury over the summer and has been inconsistent. Redshirt junior Josh Furman (6’2″, 202 lbs.) is a linebacker in a safety’s body, and he has just 11 tackles and 1 pass breakup on the year, despite earning two starts and a variety of backup duty. He can be taken advantage of through the air. At cornerback, when Countess slides into the slot, he’s replaced by one of two freshmen: Channing Stribling (6’2″, 171 lbs., 15 tackles) or Jourdan Lewis (5’10”, 170 lbs., 17 tackles, 2 pass breakups). Whoever has the best week of practice is the one who earns the role that game, so we’ll just have to wait and see who gets the nod.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: Fifth year senior safety Ty Zimmerman (6’1″, 204 lbs.) is the leader of the group and has been a First Team All-Big 12 selection in both 2012 and 2013; he has 70 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions (2 returned for touchdowns), and 4 pass breakups this season. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, he missed the final two regular season games and is questionable for the bowl game. Sophomore fellow safety Dante Barnett (6’1″, 186 lbs.) has 67 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 3 pass breakups. The Wildcats spend a lot of time in a nickel package, so the fifth defensive back – a safety/linebacker hybrid – is redshirt junior Randall Evans (6’0″, 190 lbs.), who has 59 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, and 10 pass breakups. The cornerbacks are solid but did not earn any all-conference accolades. Fifth year senior Kip Daily (5’11”, 180 lbs.) has 47 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass breakups on the year, while fifth year senior Dorrian Roberts (5’10”, 168 lbs.) has 37 stops, 2.5 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, and 8 pass breakups. Roberts is rather inexperienced after playing in junior college for two years, redshirting in 2011, and not seeing the field at all in 2012.
Backups: Redshirt junior Dylan Schellenberg (6’0″, 189 lbs.) has been starting in Zimmerman’s stead, and he has 19 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 interception on the year. Fifth year senior Carl Miles, Jr. (5’11”, 190 lbs.) has 6 tackles and 1 pass breakup on the season, but he and the other backups are rarely used. Other than subbing Evans in and out for a linebacker, the Wildcats go with their starting unit almost the whole game.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan is #62 in the nation giving up 238 yards/game through the air, but much of that is due to teams throwing instead of running on a stout run defense; they’re #32 in passer efficiency rating defense. Kansas State is #24 in the latter category and tied for #47 nationally at 222 yards allowed/game. Two of KSU’s worst three games against the pass were in recent games against TCU and Oklahoma before righting the ship against a pathetic Kansas Jayhawks squad. They rank #20 in the country with 16 interceptions on the year. If Zimmerman is unable to go, the Wildcats are without any real playmakers in the defensive backfield, though. Michigan is #17 in interceptions with 17 this year, and the two starting corners are the strength of the backfield with 10 interceptions and 13 pass breakups between them. The safety play leaves a little bit to be desired between a lack of discipline (Wilson) and athleticism (Gordon). Despite having a better defensive unit against the pass, the better group of defensive backs play for . . .

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Linebackers

Blake Slaughter (#53) helped seal a win against TCU with an interception and 39-yard return

MICHIGAN
Starters: Sophomore weakside linebacker James Ross III (6’1″, 220 lbs.) leads the unit in tackles and is tied for the team lead despite missing the last 1.5 games with an injury; he has 81 stops, 5 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks. Quick and decisive, Ross makes plays by beating blockers to the point of attack, but he’s listed as “questionable” for the bowl game. Junior middle linebacker Desmond Morgan (6’1″, 227 lbs.) is a thumper despite not being particularly big, and he has 73 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 highlight-reel interception this season. Morgan isn’t the fastest linebacker around, but he can hold his ground in the run game. The “star” of the group is actually redshirt junior outside linebacker Jake Ryan (6’3″, 240 lbs.), who has just 26 tackles and 4 tackles for loss; he tore his ACL in the spring and returned halfway through the season, so he has flashed his old athleticism but hasn’t performed up to the standard he set in 2012.
Backups: Sophomore Joe Bolden

(6’3″, 225 lbs.) is fourth on the team with 50 tackles, along with 3 tackles for loss and 1 sack. He will likely be Ross’s replacement if the starter can’t go. Bolden has been the top sub at both inside linebacker positions all year in what was mostly a three-man rotation, thus the high tackle total. Freshman Ben Gedeon

(6’3″, 236 lbs.) took over Bolden’s substitute role with Ross out, so he might see a significant amount of playing time; he made 14 tackles and 1 sack in limited duty. The other notable player is fifth year senior Cam Gordon (6’3″, 237 lbs.), a fast and strong athlete who’s been pushed to the side by Ryan’s return despite having 38 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 4 sacks on the season.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: Fifth year senior Blake Slaughter (5’10”, 227 lbs.) is the team leader in tackles with 103 and was honorable mention all-conference; he also had 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 interception. Despite being a little stouter than fellow inside linebacker Jonathan Truman (5’11”, 219 lbs.), Slaughter’s the one who bounces outside the box against trips formations and slot receivers. Slaughter was a little used linebacker in 2009-2011 and then redshirted in 2012 in order to help the team in 2013, which was part of the reason he was voted team captain this year. Truman has 85 tackles and 4 tackles for loss to his credit. He’s a redshirt sophomore former walk-on.
Backups: Senior Tre Walker (6’3″, 225 lbs.) is the outside linebacker when Kansas State is in a 4-3 look, and he has 26 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss this season. Redshirt freshman Will Davis (6’0″, 223 lbs.) has 16 tackles this season but doesn’t see a lot of playing time.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan has had solid play from its linebackers for most of the year, and they generally tend to be technically sound. The Wolverines basically have five guys capable of starting (Ross, Morgan, Ryan, Bolden, and Gordon) with Gedeon as a pretty good fourth inside linebacker. The inside guys won’t blitz often, but Ryan and Gordon can threaten the quarterback off the edge. In an admittedly limited study of Kansas State, I think Slaughter, Truman, and Walker are exploitable. Kansas State runs a lot of a 4-2-5 look, meaning their opponents are running at a six-man core that includes two linebackers who are the same weight as Michigan’s linebackers but don’t play quite as stout, in my opinion. They try to run around blocks and they have trouble disengaging. They are fairly quick, which might suit them well against some of the wide-open offenses in the Big 12 (Oregon State, Oklahoma, Baylor, etc.), but they might struggle against a straight-ahead running team that has power running backs in 240 lb. Derrick Green and 224 lb. De’Veon Smith.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan