Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

It’s hard to find attractive girls from Illinois, so Jaime Edmondson wearing a Chicago Bears jersey will have to do.

Rush Offense vs. Illinois Rush Defense
Illinois has the #38 rushing defense in the country and they’re giving up 125 yards/game.  That’s not too bad of a total, but they just gave up 158 yards (on 25 carries) to the combo of Montee Ball and James White of the Wisconsin Badgers, so the potential is there for Denard Robinson and/or Fitzgerald Toussaint and/or Thomas Rawls to gain significant yardage.  Michigan just got done running for 304 yards against Purdue, with Robinson gaining 235 of those yards; that jumped Michigan up to the #29 running team.  The Illini have a couple decent interior players in the forms of middle linebacker Jonathan Brown and defensive end Michael Buchanan; Ashante Williams, who plays the Star position, leads the team in tackles with 41.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Illinois Pass Defense
Michigan’s pass offense isn’t very good, and that rests on the shoulders of quarterback Denard Robinson.  He has some capable targets and decent pass protection, but he’s just not a very good passer.  The Wolverines are the #101 passing offense in the country, and Robinson was trusted to throw just 16 passes last week (of which he completed 8); he now has a 53.9% completion percentage on the year.  On the flip side, Illinois has the #63 passing defense and the #97 pass efficiency defense; they’re also #89 in sacks, despite the presence of Buchanan.  Additionally, cornerback Terry Hawthorne may not be back from a scary head/neck injury he suffered last week.  Illinois isn’t very good at defending the pass, and Michigan isn’t very good at passing.  Sounds like quite the matchup of units.
Advantage: Michigan


Rush Defense vs. Illinois Rush Offense
The Wolverines have the #65 rushing defense in the country, but that seeming mediocrity was the result of playing two good rushing teams in the first two weeks (Alabama and Air Force).  In the last two games, Michigan has given up 3.0 yards/carry to Notre Dame and 2.3 yards/carry to Purdue.  The Illini are #94 nationally in rushing, and the two leading rushers are running backs Donovonn Young (38 yards/game) and Josh Ferguson (36 yards/game).  Nose tackle Quinton Washington has taken a couple steps forward this season, and Michigan’s linebackers are pretty darn good.  Last year Michigan’s interior dominated Illinois’ and held them to 37 yards on 33 attempts.  And while Michigan’s defensive line isn’t as good as it was last year, the difference isn’t big enough to make this an advantage for Illinois.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Defense vs. Illinois Pass Offense
Michigan has the #7 pass defense and the #26 pass efficiency defense, despite being 104th in the country in sacks with just one per game.  Of course, it helps that most of the teams the Wolverines have played are helmed by subpar quarterbacks, with the lone exception being Alabama’s A.J. McCarron.  Cornerback Raymon Taylor and safety Thomas Gordon each have 2 interceptions, and Craig Roh is the team leader in sacks with 1.5.  Illinois quarterback Reilly O’Toole has completed 57/73 passes for 514 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions; incumbent starter Nathan Scheelhaase is 65/104 for 659 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.  The numbers suggest that O’Toole is the superior player, but Scheelhaase has the edge in experience and has started the past couple games.  Ryan Lankford is leading receiver for the Illini with 25 receptions for 362 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Michigan probably won’t be able to get after the quarterback much, but they should be able to maintain fairly tight coverage and grab a pick or two.


Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited OT Ryan Nowicki and C Graham Pocic
• Players from Michigan include Birmingham (MI) Brother Rice WR Devin Church, Detroit (MI) Country Day WR Kenny Knight, Detroit (MI) Cass Tech DE Kenny Nelson, Orchard Lake (MI) St. Mary’s SS Earnest Thomas

Preview: Michigan at Notre Dame

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
Michigan is #45 nationally in rush offense, but Denard Robinson accounts for 117 of the team’s 192.3 yards/game.  The offensive line has generally struggled to create creases for anyone else.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame is #23 in rushing defense, giving up 96.3 yards/game.  They held Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell to 77 yards on 19 carries (4.1 yards/attempt) and the entire Navy offense to 149 yards, a team that was #3 nationally in 2011 with 358 yards/game.  The Fighting Irish have done a good job of recruiting in recent years, and they now have several very good players in the front seven.  Denard Robinson has shown that he can run on these guys, but I have some concerns about whether the offensive line can hold up.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
After playing two cupcake defenses and one very good defense, Robinson is completing 54.6% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions; he’s the #39 rated passer in the country, thanks to some long completions.  However, two of those interceptions have been returned for touchdowns.  Michigan has its full complement of wide receivers, and the 6’4″ Devin Gardner leads the team in yards, touchdowns, and yards per catch.  Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are missing starting safety Jamoris Slaughter and starting cornerback Lo Wood for the season; the other starting corner Bennett Jackson had 2 interceptions against Purdue, and safety Zeke Motta isn’t much of a pass defender.  Receivers should be able to get open, but the 3-4 defense will probably put some pressure on Robinson in the pocket; Notre Dame sacked Michigan State quarterback Andrew Maxwell four times last week.  Defensive end Stephon Tuitt leads the country with 5 sacks and the team is sacking the quarterback 3.67 times per game.  Big plays will be there both ways, but based on past performance, I think Robinson will make some big things happen through the air or by scrambling.
Advantage: Michigan


Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
This matchup terrifies me, because Notre Dame has several running backs with a great deal of ability.  Theo Riddick had 107 yards and 2 touchdowns against Navy; George Atkinson is averaging 9.5 yards/carry; Cierre Wood returned last week to run for 56 yards on 10 carries against MSU; and quarterback Everett Golson can run a little bit.  Michigan has struggled on the inside, and both defensive end Brennen Beyer and defensive tackle Richard Ash are questionable to play due to injury.  They’re #104 nationally against the run. Riddick and Wood are both capable running backs, but Atkinson is the wild card.  He’s fast and physical and could be a huge game-breaker.  I do not see this phase going well for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Notre Dame


Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense
Golson is Notre Dame’s starter, but he’s backed up by a couple capable guys in Tommy Rees and Andrew Hendrix.  The youngster is completing just 58% of his passes for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, so he’s not lighting the world on fire, but if the running game produces, he won’t have to win it through the air.  The Fighting Irish have a handful of capable receivers, not just one guy to concentrate on like Michael Floyd the past few years.  Tight end/wide receiver Tyler Eifert, receiver T.J. Jones, receiver DaVaris Daniels, receiver Robby Toma, and running back Theo Riddick all have between 6 and 9 receptions.  Eifert, in particular, seems like a matchup problem because of his size (6’6″, 251 lbs.) and speed.  Notre Dame gives up 2.67 sacks/game, and Golson holds onto the ball too long sometimes, but Michigan barely gets after the quarterback unless they use Jake Ryan as a rusher.  Without starting cornerback Blake Countess, it might be a struggle for Michigan to cover each of the targets.
Advantage: Notre Dame


Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited K Kyle Brindza, WR Chris Brown, WR DaVaris Daniels, DT Sheldon Day, LB Dan Fox, QB Everett Golson, OT Mark Harrell, DE Jarron Jones, QB Gunner Kiel, OT Christian Lombard, OT Zack Martin, WR Davonte Neal, DT Louis Nix III, S Elijah Shumate, OG Chris Watt, TE Alex Welch, RB Cierre Wood, and CB Lo Wood.

Predictions

• Denard Robinson has his worst career performance of the Notre Dame series.
• Notre Dame gashes Michigan for 190 rushing yards.
• Big plays go Notre Dame’s way this year.
• Notre Dame 24, Michigan 20

Preview: Michigan vs. Alabama

Rush Offense vs. Alabama Rush Defense
Michigan had the #13 rushing offense in 2011 while averaging almost 222 yards a game.  Unfortunately, that included Fitzgerald Toussaint’s nearly 87 yards per game, which will likely disappear for week one while he serves a suspension for a DUI.  He’ll likely be replaced by sophomore Thomas Rawls, who had just 13 carries in non-critical situations last season.  Meanwhile, Alabama replaces nine starters on defense but had the #1 overall rushing defense in 2011.  They will still be good at stopping the run, even with all the new contributors.  The Crimson Tide will likely abuse the middle of Michigan’s offensive line with blitzes, slants, and brute strength.  I would not be surprised to see a total output like that from the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, when Michigan rushed 30 times for 56 yards.
Advantage: Alabama


Pass Offense vs. Alabama Pass Defense
The Wolverines suffered from what amounted to a mediocre passing game last season, finishing #93 in total passing yardage and #40 in passing efficiency.  Robinson struggled early in the season while adjusting to a pro-style system; he improved later in the season when offensive coordinator Al Borges determined that Robinson isn’t a very good passer, instead calling easy passing plays.  On the season, Robinson completed 55% of his passes and threw 15 picks.  Now Michigan is without its top receiver from last season (Junior Hemingway) and has a crew of guys who aren’t #1 receivers or who haven’t played college ball yet.  Meanwhile, Alabama was #1 in passing defense, #1 in pass efficiency defense, and #29 in sacks.  Despite breaking in all the new starters, the Crimson Tide will still be better than Michigan in this area and cause some confusion for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Alabama
Rush Defense vs. Alabama Rush OffenseMichigan has new starters at all four spots along the defensive line, with Craig Roh moving from weakside end to the strong side.  It is expected to be the biggest weakness of the defense.  Meanwhile, all of the back seven return, including leading tackler Kenny Demens, the middle linebacker.  The Wolverines will probably put eight guys in the box (including safety Jordan Kovacs) and take their chances against the pass.  Starting running back Eddie Lacy may miss Saturday’s game with a sprained knee, so the rushing load may fall to junior Jalston Fowler (56 carries, 385 yards, 4 touchdowns last year) or true freshman T.J. Yeldon, a 6’2″, 216-pounder.  Redshirt freshman Demetrius Hart could also figure into the rotation.  Michigan’s safeties are good tacklers, so there shouldn’t be a ton of big plays in the running game, but Alabama will be able to push around the Wolverines up front.

Pass Defense vs. Alabama Pass Offense
The Crimson Tide were very balanced in 2011, rushing for 214 yards a game and passing for 215.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron is very careful with the football (just 5 interceptions last season), and while he doesn’t have a ton of capability to make big plays in the passing game, he was the 25th-most efficient passer in the country last season.  However, he lost his top four targets from last season, leaving junior Kenny Bell as the leading returning receiver (17 catches, 255 yards, 2 touchdowns).  Michigan was #16 in pass defense and #36 in pass efficiency defense, and all the key components of their coverage return.  The Wolverines will likely take a step back in sacks (#29 last season) now that Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen have graduated, but they will probably blitz more frequently to make up for the lack of athleticism up front.

Roster notes

• Michigan recruited DT Chris Bonds, S Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix, LB Trey DePriest, CB John Fulton, RB Dee Hart, CB Cyrus Jones, OL Ryan Kelly, OL Arie Kouandjio, OL Cyrus Kouandjio, LB Dillon Lee, CB Dee Milliner, LB Tana Patrick, RB Blake Sims, CB Geno Smith, DE Dalvin Tomlinson, and CB Jabriel Washington
• RB Dee Hart was once committed to Michigan prior to the firing of Rich Rodriguez
• Head coach Nick Saban and TE/ST coach Bobby Williams both used to be head coaches at Michigan State

Defensive Backs Preview: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

This is Jayron Hosley (#20).  I bet #41 is gonna catch him.

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt junior J.T. Floyd (6’0″, 185 lbs.) started 11 games at cornerback; he was named All-Big Ten Honorable Mention after recording 45 tackles, 8 pass breakups, 2 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble.  True freshman cornerback Blake Countess (5’10”, 176 lbs.) started the final 5 games of the season; he has made 36 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 6 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.  Fifth year senior Troy Woolfolk (6’0″, 191 lbs.) starts at free safety after beginning the year as the starting cornerback; he has notched 29 tackles and 2 pass breakups on the year.  Redshirt junior Jordan Kovacs (6’0″, 197 lbs.) started 11 games at strong safety; he ended the regular season with 64 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 1 interception, 1 pass breakup, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 forced fumbles.
Backups: Redshirt sophomore Thomas Gordon (5’11”, 208 lbs.) started 9 games and arguably should have held his starting job over Woolfolk at free safety; Gordon made 59 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 interception, 2 pass breakups, 4 fumble recoveries, and 2 forced fumbles.  Sophomore cornerback Courtney Avery (5’11”, 173 lbs.) started 2 games at nickel corner; on the season he has 24 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1/2 a sack, 2 interceptions, 3 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries (1 returned for an 83-yard touchdown).

VIRGINIA TECH
Starters: Junior cornerback Jayron Holsey (5’10”, 171 lbs.) started 12 games at cornerback and was named Second Team All-ACC; he made 59 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 3 interceptions, and 8 pass breakups. The other starting corner will probably be Cris Hill (5’11”, 180 lbs.), a fifth year senior who has 5 starts; Hill has 33 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 interception, and 6 pass breakups.  Free safety Antone Exum (6’0″, 220 lbs.) was All-ACC Honorable Mention; he has made 85 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 interception, and 10 pass breakups.  Senior rover Eddie Whitley (6’1″, 200 lbs.) was named Second Team All-ACC; he has 78 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 interceptions on the year.
Backups: Part-time cornerback Kyle Fuller was discussed in the linebackers preview, since he will likely start at weakside linebacker; he’s essentially a nickel corner.  Redshirt freshman cornerback Detrick Bonner (6’0″, 189 lbs.) is the only other significant contributor in the defensive backfield; he started two games at cornerback and has 26 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interception on the year.

THE TAKEAWAY
Going purely by accolades, J.T. Floyd is Michigan’s best defensive back, and even he could only manage honorable mention when it came to all-conference selections.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has two or three All-ACC Second Teamers in the backfield, depending on where you place Kyle Fuller.  Holsey himself has more career interceptions as a junior (12) than the entirety of the Michigan defensive backfield (10).

As for team rankings, it’s somewhat equal.  Virginia Tech is #17 in pass efficiency defense and #39 in pass defense, while Michigan is #36 in pass efficiency defense and #17 in pass defense.  It helps the Hokies that their front seven (and nickel corners) get after the quarterback and are #11 nationally in sacks.

However, the individual numbers suggest that Virginia Tech has the better defensive backfield.  Their starters have the edge in interceptions (7 to 3) and tackles for loss (27 to 17), as well as all-conference selections.  Holsey is a better cover corner than anyone Michigan has at this point, and the rest of Michigan’s secondary doesn’t make up the difference.

Advantage: Virginia Tech

Linebackers Preview: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

Kyle Fuller (#17) was a Second Team All-ACC pick despite starting at three different positions, including weakside linebacker (image via Collegiate Times)

MICHIGAN
Starters: Redshirt freshman Jake Ryan (6’3″, 230 lbs.) started 10 games at strongside linebacker; he ended the season with 30 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 fumble recoveries.  Redshirt junior middle linebacker Kenny Demens (6’1″, 248 lbs.) started every game and led the team in tackles; he finished with 86 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.  True freshman weakside linebacker Desmond Morgan (6’1″, 220 lbs.) took over the starting job midway through the year and started 6 games altogether; he ended the regular season with 53 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.
Backups: True freshman Brennen Beyer (6’3″, 225 lbs.) is the backup SAM and made 11 total tackles.  Junior Brandin Hawthorne (6’0″, 214 lbs.) is the backup WILL (and started 5 games before losing his spot), finishing with 43 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception.  Demens rarely leaves the field.

VIRGINIA TECH
Starters: Redshirt sophomore middle linebacker Jack Tyler (6’0″, 229 lbs.) made 3 starts on the season; he ended the year with 35 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 fumble recovery.  Redshirt sophomore inside linebacker Tariq Edwards (6’2″, 231 lbs.) started every game; he has 63 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 1 fumble recovery.  Sophomore cornerback Kyle Fuller (6’0″, 187 lbs.) has started the last 2 games at weakside linebacker due to injuries, but started the other 11 games in the defensive backfield and was a Second Team All-ACC selection; he has 64 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 1 interception, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery.  Tyler and Fuller are replacing injured starters Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow, respectively, who will also miss the Sugar Bowl.
Backups: Fifth year senior middle linebacker Barquell Rivers (6’0″, 250 lbs.) has 16 tackles, 1/2 a sack, and 1 interception.  Redshirt junior outside linebacker Alonzo Tweedy (6’2″, 189 lbs.) has 20 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 sack.

THE TAKEAWAY
It’s tempting to say that Michigan has the advantage here, since all three starters have superior size and actually earned  their positions rather than stepping in due to injury.  Two of Virginia Tech’s starters are replacements, although Fuller has started every game this season at various positions.  But what Michigan has in game experience might be trumped by the playmaking ability of Edwards and Fuller, who have combined for 24 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, and 3 interceptions.  And despite the relative health of Michigan’s unit, two of those three starters are still just freshmen.

The Hokies are #37 in the country in tackles for loss, while Michigan ranks at #72.  Additionally, Virginia Tech has the #17 rushing defense, compared to Michigan’s #34 rushing D.  The Hokies might be small, but they’re quick and they get to the ball.  They have made their name on special teams and defense over the years, and defensive coordinator Bud Foster is a pretty good coordinator.  They won’t be able to keep up with Denard Robinson in a foot race, but they should create a nice challenge.

Advantage: Virginia Tech