Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan at Ohio State

I hate Ohio State’s uniforms, so here’s a picture of Terrelle Pryor from high school.

Earlier in the year, I had designs on going to Columbus for this game.  I never really had the thought that this game would have an impact on the Big Ten Championship from Michigan’s side, but I thought it might be competitive for the first time in a few years.  I decided not to get tickets even prior to the Wisconsin game, and after watching Michigan get manhandled by the Badgers, I’m glad I didn’t make the purchase.  There will be better years to foray into the heart of Buckeye country.

Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
This will be a battle Michigan must win to have any chance at a victory.  The Wolverines are the #10 rushing offense in the country (257 yards per game), and the Buckeyes are the #3 rush defense (86 yards per game).  Something has to give, and honestly, it will probably be the Ohio State defense.  The best rushing team Ohio State has faced was Wisconsin, who put up 188 yards at 4.37 yards a pop.  Earlier in the year, I railed against Rich Rodriguez’s heavy use of Denard Robinson in the running game to keep him fresh for late in the season.  Well, if ever there was a time to use Denard 30, 35, 40 times a game, this is it.  This is the game that matters, maybe for Rodriguez’s job, maybe for the perception of the program.  This game right here is why I didn’t want Robinson rushing the ball 29 times in a 20-point victory over UConn, but now it’s pedal to the medal.  Michigan’s running backs have largely been ineffective this season, although Vincent Smith has started to improve in the past couple weeks.  Michigan might also get a boost from the return of Fitzgerald Toussaint, a highly talented running back who has missed most of the season due to various injuries.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The reason the rushing game will be so important is because the passing game scares me.  Michigan has the #30 pass offense and the #16 pass efficiency, but Ohio State is #5 in pass defense and #7 in pass efficiency D.  Denard Robinson still struggles to read defenses and go through his progressions.  And while Ohio State doesn’t make a ton of sacks (only 18 on the year), they have picked off 17 passes; meanwhile, Denard Robinson has thrown 10 picks, with 9 of them coming in Michigan’s last six games.  His accuracy and confidence have waned throughout the year.  Michigan might be missing a deep threat in Darryl Stonum, who injured his ankle returning a kick against Wisconsin.  That would leave the Wolverines down its two starting outside receivers from the beginning of the year, including Martavious Odoms, who has missed most of the year.  There will be open receivers because Ohio State is going to commit to stopping the run, but whether Robinson can hit those receivers downfield is a bit of a crapshoot.
Advantage: Ohio State

Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
Ummm . . . yeah.  So.  Michigan is bad at stopping the run.  This is well known.  While Wisconsin’s offensive line and running backs are more physical than Ohio State’s, Michigan’s defense effectively refused to stop the run against the Badgers, giving up 6.32 yards a carry.  And when you keep the ball on the ground 56 times in one game, it’s not like those yards came on surprise draws or reverses.  Nope, Wisconsin lined it up and simply dominated the line of scrimmage.  Ohio State would be wise to follow Wisconsin’s blueprint.  Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor has thrown 10 interceptions himself; so while Michigan’s pass rush isn’t fearsome and Michigan’s secondary is well below average, why take the chance at putting the ball in the air?
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
The Buckeyes are the #17 rushing offense, so they don’t need to pass the ball a ton; they average 230 passing yards a game, which is a middling 55th in the country.  But as much as Michigan fans like to make fun of the way Pryor throws the football, he ranks 14th in the country in passing efficiency.  It might be ugly, but it’s effective.  Ohio State has two solid receivers in Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey, and Pryor has the arm strength and touch to deliver deep balls consistently.  On the other hand, Michigan’s secondary is a work in progress.  Lacking its top two cornerbacks from the pre-season (Troy Woolfolk, J.T. Floyd) due to injury, it’s been mix-and-match since then.  But a strange thing seems to have happened since then – the secondary seems to be improving.  James Rogers has three interceptions in the last two games; true freshman Courtney Avery might already be a better cover corner than the guy he replaced (Floyd); and freshman free safety Ray Vinopal lacks the unfortunate quality of being a linebacker.  None of this is to say that Michigan will be great against the pass, but they should perform better than what we thought several weeks ago.
Advantage: Ohio State

Final Predictions

• Based on the lack of success against Wisconsin, Michigan runs a good deal of 4-man fronts
• Denard Robinson throws a pair of interceptions
• Fitzgerald Toussaint gets a couple carries and then gets injured
• Kelvin Grady leads the team in receiving
• Ohio State 45, Michigan 27

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Running back James White

Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense
Wisconsin has the #25 rushing defense in the country, giving up only 3.8 yards per carry and 125 yards per game.  Meanwhile, Michigan is the #9 rushing offense, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 266 yards per game.  One way or the other, one of these units is going to be disappointed on Sunday.  Michigan’s running game hasn’t been shut down yet this year.  When teams have limited Denard Robinson’s running, the tailbacks have picked up the slack.  And when teams take away the tailbacks, Robinson seems to run free.  I will be interested to see what the Badgers do on Saturday.  It looks to me like Robinson has started to wear down from various nagging injuries.  I wonder if Wisconsin might take the chance of crashing down on the running backs, playing some Cover 0, and daring Robinson to beat them.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense
Wisconsin is #28 in pass defense, but a mediocre #51 in pass efficiency defense.  On the other side, Denard Robinson is the #14 passer in the country . . . with very little dropoff to backup Tate Forcier, since the team is still #14 overall in efficiency.  If all things are working well for Robinson, he should have a good day and make some good plays through the air.  Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, Robinson’s play has deteriorated somewhat in the Big Ten; in the last five games, Robinson’s 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions have looked less than stellar.  Over that five-game stretch, Robinson’s PER is 138.37 and that would rank him at #36 in the country.  He’s not stinking the joint up, but he’s not lighting the world on fire, either.  That stretch of mediocre play might continue with left tackle Taylor Lewan’s availability in question due to a concussion and right tackle Perry Dorrestein’s nagging knee injury.  Michigan isn’t far from playing backup Mark Huyge at left tackle and untested redshirt freshman Michael Schofield at right tackle.  That could be troublesome for Michigan’s quarterback.  Luckily, Michigan’s receivers – Junior Hemingway and Roy Roundtree, in particular – are playing great football and should be able to take advantage of mismatches against a pedestrian secondary.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Wisconsin Rush Offense
This is where it really looks ugly for Michigan, and this is nothing new.  Michigan’s coaches have made some positive moves in recent weeks, putting Cameron Gordon at outside linebacker instead of free safety, Craig Roh (finally!) at defensive end instead of linebacker, and Obi Ezeh (finally!) at outside linebacker rather than in the middle.  If banged-up starters Jonas Mouton and Mike Martin can play at a high level, those are steps in the right direction.  But Wisconsin is one of the top rushing units in the country, ranking #12 overall.  The good news is that starting Panzer VIII Maus running back John Clay will miss the game due to injury.  The bad news is that top backup James White averages more yards per carry (6.8) than Clay (5.4); even third-string Montee Ball averages 5.6 yards per carry.  Does that mean Wisconsin’s running backs are great?  Absolutely not.  It means that Wisconsin’s offensive linemen are all named Vinnie Jones and make a habit of saying “I’m the Juggernaut, bitch!”  They are big and mean and really, really hate Ellen Page.
Advantage: Wisconsin

Pass Defense vs. Wisconsin Pass Offense
One place that Michigan seems to be making some strides is in pass defense.  Cornerback Courtney Avery might be a downgrade from J.T. Floyd in terms of experience, but I’m convinced that Avery will be a better defensive back than Floyd in the long run.  Avery is a quick learner and possesses better agility and hips than Floyd has ever shown.  Meanwhile, the linebackers replacing Craig Roh at SAM (J.B. Fitzgerald, Obi Ezeh) aren’t fluid in space, but they’re better off covering curl zones than a 6’5″, 250 lb. defensive end.  Wisconsin quarterback Scott Tolzien has the #8 PER in the country and averages 8.85 yards per attempt, though.  The combination of Wisconsin’s offensive line, running backs, and Tolzien leaves chances for big plays at any time.  Despite an effective pass offense, I think big plays through the air will be limited by improving play and confidence in the secondary.  Even so, Wisconsin should be able to pick up yards in chunks.
Advantage: Wisconsin

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson breaks 100 yards rushing for the eighth time this year
• James Rogers proves prophetic and Wisconsin fails to score 83 points
• James White averages fewer than 6.8 yards per carry
• Michigan’s defense stops the big play but dies a slow death
• Wisconsin 35, Michigan 27

Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

Illinois running back Mikel Leshoure had 150 yards rushing and averaged over 7 yards a carry in 2009.

It just so happens that my personal schedule hasn’t left me much time over the past couple days.  I don’t have time for a full preview, and even a full preview would say the same thing it always does: Michigan’s offense has the advantage, and no matter how bad the offense, the Wolverines’ defense will be worse. 

The problems on defense have only been exacerbated by this week’s loss of cornerback J.T. Floyd to an ankle injury and the ongoing ankle problems for nose tackle Mike Martin.  Mediocre Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will likely look like the Second Coming of . . . well . . . Matt McGloin and shred Michigan’s defense.

Meanwhile, Illinois is #15 in total defense and #12 in scoring defense.

I do not expect good things to happen.

Final Predictions

• Running back Mikel Leshoure will run for a billion yards
• Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will pass for a billion yards
• Vincent Smith will get a handful of carries and do virtually nothing
• Denard Robinson will run for a bunch of yards, get hurt, and throw the ball erratically (not necessarily in that order)
• Illinois 38, Michigan 27 

Preview: Michigan vs. Iowa

Iowa running back Adam Robinson averages 96 yards a game rushing.

I haven’t had time this week for a full preview, so this is going to be fairly brief.

Rush Offense vs. Iowa Rush Defense
Iowa has the #2 rush defense in the country.  Michigan has the #6 rush offense.  Something has to give.  I’ll bet that Michigan runs for more than 63.2 yards (Iowa’s average), but Denard Robinson won’t be getting 200 yards against the Hawkeyes.  I like Michigan left tackle Taylor Lewan as a football player, but Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn is probably going to eat him alive.  Still, Iowa hasn’t played a team yet that has a great running game.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Iowa Pass Defense
Iowa is #28 in pass defense (179 yards a game), but #10 in pass efficiency defense.  I have a feeling that Denard Robinson is going to continue struggling in the passing game this week, because Iowa should be able to get a pass rush and harass him.  If Iowa’s defense can corral him with their front four, then Iowa’s back seven should be able to confuse Robinson and force him into some turnovers.
Advantage: Iowa

Rush Defense vs. Iowa Rush Offense
Iowa running back Adam Robinson is averaging 96 yards a game.  His backups are somewhat meaningless, but the starter averages 4.9 yards per attempt and Michigan can’t stop the run very well.  The game won’t be won on the ground by Iowa, but they should be able to pick up some yards in chunks, especially if nose tackle Mike Martin’s sprained ankle slows him down.  Reports indicate that middle linebacker Kenny Demens might get significant playing time, so perhaps there’s some hope for improvement against the run.
Advantage: Iowa

Pass Defense vs. Iowa Pass Defense
I’ve never been very impressed with Ricky Stanzi, but he’s doing well so far this year.  He’s thrown 10 touchdowns compared to only 2 interceptions.  Meanwhile, Iowa has a couple big play receivers in Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (15.9 yards a catch) and Marvin McNutt (18.3).  Those could be killer combinations for a Wolverines secondary that ranks #119 in the country against the pass.
Advantage: Iowa

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson throws two interceptions but breaks a 60-yard run.
• We see more of the backup running backs than we did last week.
• Ricky Stanzi throws a stupid interception like the gimme he tossed to Donovan Warren last year.
• Cameron Gordon gets beaten up the seam by a tight end.
• Iowa 28, Michigan 24

Preview: Michigan State at Michigan

Michigan State freshman running back Le’Veon Bell

Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is currently the #1 rusher in all of college football, and the Wolverines are the #3 rushing offense in the country.  Co-starting running back Michael Shaw should return from a tweaked knee to help out fellow starter Vincent Smith in the backfield, but neither has been extremely productive this season.  Shaw picked up a good chunk of his numbers against UMass, and Smith was unspectacular until his 56-yard touchdown run last week against Indiana; aside from that outburst, he’s averaging 3.78 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, Michigan State is ranked #20 against the run this season and just finished beating a run-heavy Wisconsin team.  Many media outlets suggested that MSU shut down Wisconsin’s run game, but UW averaged 5.3 yards per carry throughout the contest.  While the Spartans should be the toughest run defense Michigan has seen, no team has been able to come close to shutting down Robinson and his minions in the run game.  Despite the underperforming running backs, Robinson averages 9.2 yards a carry – and that’s despite missing the majority of the BGSU game due to injury.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense
It seems that a lot of people are overlooking this aspect of the matchup.  The Wolverines are the #38 passing offense in the country, while MSU lingers at #78.  With all the talent that MSU has recruited up front in the past few years, the secondary is suspect.  Tate Forcier had a subpar day for most of the 2009 game, but he finished with 223 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, including some big plays in the passing game.  If Michigan has early success in the running game, that should open up downfield throws.  Denard Robinson missed a couple streaking, wide open receivers last week against Indiana, and he’ll need to capitalize on those opportunities this week.  I don’t expect that Robinson will end up throwing for 400 yards or anything crazy like that, but big plays are bound to be there for the taking. 
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Michigan State Rush Offense
Michigan is ranked #37 in rush defense, although that statistic is a bit misleading.  With as bad as Michigan’s secondary is, teams like Indiana, Notre Dame, and UConn have been content to chuck the ball all over the field.  Of those top 37 teams, Michigan allows the fourth-highest yards per carry average (3.66).  This might be where the game is won or lost.  MSU’s starting running back, Edwin Baker, is averaging 7.1 yards per carry . . . and there’s not much dropoff when he comes out of the game, with top backup Le’Veon Bell averaging 7.4 yards per carry.  In fact, that’s not a dropoff at all.  Michigan has done a pretty good job of preventing huge runs so far this season, but teams have been able to get yards in chunks.  The difference this week might be that Baker and Bell have the ability to turn 15- or 20-yard runs into 80-yard runs.  Baker has speed that Michigan’s safeties can’t match, and Bell has the power to run through a lot of tackles.  Unlike previous opponents, I wouldn’t be surprised to see MSU run the ball, run the ball, and run it some more.
Advantage: Michigan State

Pass Defense vs. Michigan State Pass Offense
Ugh.  Rushing the ball is probably the safer option, but if the Spartans need to pass, they’ll be able to do so at will.  MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 67.5% of his passes and has a few good options to whom to throw the ball.  The only good thing is that Cousins has thrown four interceptions in his five games, so Michigan does have a chance to force some turnovers.  However, I truly believe that Michigan needs to rush four or more defenders in order to have a chance against the pass.  If the Wolverines keep rushing three, Cousins will have all day to pick apart Michigan’s makeshift secondary.  Michigan is literally last in the country against the pass, and there’s no reason to believe that Saturday will show any kind of significant turnaround in that area.
Advantage: Michigan State

Final Predictions

• For the second time this season, Michigan will get outgained by an opponent.
• Denard Robinson will get injured and miss time . . . again.
• We see Michigan’s first trick play of the season (double pass, reverse, fake field goal, etc.).
• Roy Roundtree will have a huge game.
• Michigan State 38, Michigan 35