Tag: game preview

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Defensive Line

Defensive end Ryan Mueller had 18.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks during the regular season.

MICHIGAN
Starters: Junior weakside end Frank Clark (6’2″, 273 lbs.) is the headliner of the group. As a Second Team all-conference selection, he started the season a little slowly but ended with 12 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. The other defensive end will likely be junior Brennen Beyer (6’3″, 250 lbs.), who has bounced from SAM linebacker to weakside end to SAM linebacker and now to strongside end. Despite starting every game this season, he has just 25 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, so his playmaking skills are somewhat lacking. Fifth year senior Quinton Washington (6’4″, 301 lbs.) is the nose tackle, and he holds the point of attack fairly well but has made just 19 tackles while being hampered by a nagging back injury. Senior Jibreel Black (6’2″, 278 lbs.) is the 3-tech tackle and can give interior linemen trouble with his quickness, but generally, he lacks the bulk to hold up in the power run game, which could very well be an issue against Kansas State.
Backups: Redshirt sophomore Keith Heitzman (6’3″, 280 lbs.) began the season as the strongside end but is more of a stopgap player with 8 tackles and .5 tackles for loss. Redshirt freshman Chris Wormley (6’4″, 289 lbs.) has played end and 3-tech tackle, and while not a dominant player, he has flashed potential with 17 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks. Redshirt freshman Ryan Glasgow (6’4″, 300 lbs.) has played a fair amount at defensive tackle but has just 2 total tackles to show for it, and redshirt junior Richard Ash (6’3″, 314 lbs.) has 3 tackles on the season. The backup weakside ends are sophomore Mario Ojemudia (6’3″, 250 lbs.) with 20 tackles and 1.5 sacks and freshman Taco Charlton (6’6″, 270 lbs.) with 2 tackles and .5 tackles for loss.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: Redshirt junior left end Ryan Mueller (6’2″, 245 lbs.) is the star of KSU’s defensive front, racking up 61 tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, and 4 forced fumbles this year. That performance earned him first team all-conference honors and mention on some All-America teams. On the other end is senior Alauna Finau (6’1″, 258 lbs.), who has 20 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and .5 sacks on the year. Sophomore left defensive tackle Travis Britz (6’4″, 293 lbs.) has 33 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks. Senior right defensive tackle Chaquil Reed (6’3″, 309 lbs.) has 33 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, and he runs pretty well for a big guy.
Key backups: Redshirt sophomore defensive end Marquel Bryant (6’3″, 241 lbs.) has 13 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, and junior defensive tackle Valentino Coleman (6’3″, 285 lbs.) has 4 tackles as Britz’s backup. The only other defensive lineman to play in even half of the Wildcats’ games is redshirt junior defensive end Laton Dowling

(6’3″, 254 lbs.), who has just 3 tackles on the year, but that includes 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan is #27 in the country in rush defense with 139 yards allowed/game, and Kansas State is #40 giving up 145 yards/game. Against the pass, Michigan is #68 with 23 sacks, and Kansas State is #48 with 27 quarterback takedowns. Statistically, there’s not a ton that separates these two teams. In watching Oklahoma’s 41-31 win over the Wildcats in game 11, I was not impressed with the defensive line. Granted, Oklahoma was the #11 team in the country, but Finau and Coleman looked particularly vulnerable in the running game. They don’t flip their defensive line much, so Mueller has been able to rack up a lot of his numbers against teams’ right tackles, who are generally inferior to the left tackles. Against Michigan, Mueller will face likely one of his best opponents this year in Michael Schofield. Britz and Reed might be able to get a little bit of penetration, but Michigan’s improved offensive line play in the last couple weeks of the season should be sufficient to have a decent day. The Wildcats have the better individual statistics and perhaps the best overall player in Mueller, but with the way Clark, Ojemudia, Beyer, Wormley, Henry, Washington, and Black work together to funnel things to the inside linebackers, I think the advantage right here goes to . . .

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Receivers and Tight Ends

Tyler Lockett is the key to Kansas State’s passing game.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The diminutive fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) is the go-to guy, and he had an all-conference season with 80 catches, 1284 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He can be effective on just about any route – screens, hitches, square ins, fades, double moves, jump balls, etc. Aside from his lack of height (which he makes up for with his leaping ability and the timing of those leaps), he doesn’t have truly blazing speed, so he sometimes pulls away before getting tracked down in a foot race. The other starting wide receiver is sophomore Devin Funchess (6’5″, 235 lbs.), who made all-conference listed as a tight end but rarely plays it anymore; he has 47 catches for 727 yards and 6 scores. Funchess is Michigan’s bubble screen guy, leaps over tacklers sometimes, runs an occasional end around, and can beat teams deep. The de facto starting tight end is freshman Jake Butt (6’6″, 246 lbs.), who has come on late in the season to catch 17 balls for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Butt can do a little bit of everything between blocking, catching, and running.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) started a little bit early in the year before Funchess’s blocking became too big of a problem at tight end, and while Chesson’s playing time has dropped a little bit, he’s actually improved his route running and ability to adjust to the ball in the air. He has 13 catches for 213 yards and 1 touchdown. Senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) is the only other significant receiving threat, but he’s a possession guy who usually works over the middle. Occasionally, senior Jeremy Jackson (6’3″, 209 lbs.) or redshirt senior Joe Reynolds (6’1″, 196 lbs.) will pop up for a catch, but they’ve totaled just 10 catches for 140 yards and 0 scores this year. Sophomore A.J. Williams (6’6″, 265 lbs.) and redshirt junior Jordan Paskorz (6’3″, 255 lbs.) are the “blocking” tight ends that struggle to block, and while they’ll be on the field a fair amount, they have just 1 total catch.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: The clear leader of the receiving corps is junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.), who has 71 catches for 1,146 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Lockett has made a lot of big catches for the Wildcats and can be a real threat to the secondary on deep routes. Fifth year senior Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.) is also a big-play guy from the slot with 28 catches for 495 yards (17.7 yards/catch) and 5 touchdowns. Junior Curry Sexton (5’11”, 183 lbs.) is the other receiver in K-State’s three-wide attack, and he’s been more of a possession guy with 36 catches for 409 yards. Redshirt junior tight end Zach Trujillo is rarely targeted, but he has 5 catches for 111 yards and 1 touchdown.
Backups: Senior Torell Miller (6’3″, 213 lbs.) is a former safety who was expected to start this year in place of Sexton, but he’s been relegated to backup duty and 11 catches, 106 yards, and 1 touchdown. Redshirt sophomore Kyle Klein (6’4″, 210 lbs.) is a former defensive end who has 5 catches for 59 yards on the season. Fifth year senior Andre McDonald (6’8″, 278 lbs.) is a mammoth blocking tight end who has just 2 catches for 19 yards this season. It’s a very thin group of receivers.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan has two guys who can be consistent deep threats, and another who has the speed to do so. Gallon has been outstanding this year and was one of the top couple receivers in the conference, while Funchess is simply a matchup nightmare. The other guys aren’t very scary, but Chesson, Dileo, and Butt can all be good secondary targets and move the chains. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a guy who can blow up in the form of Lockett, plus a somewhat dangerous slot guy in Thompson. In a couple closely contested shootouts against Big 12 opponents, Lockett has gone over 230 yards (237 against Texas, 278 against Oklahoma), and he’s the guy that quarterbacks Jake Waters and Daniel Sams will look to if things get rough. If the Wildcats can move the ball consistently on the ground, they’ll settle for trying to win the game without putting the ball in the air too much. Tight ends have hurt Michigan in a few games this year (Minnesota’s Maxx Williams, Iowa’s C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ohio State’s Jeff Heuerman), but that shouldn’t be a persistent problem in this game. It’s a tall task to stop Lockett, but he’s the key to their passing game.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Running Backs

John Hubert (#33) is essentially Kansas State’s only running back.

MICHIGAN
Starters: Late in the season, freshman Derrick Green (5’11”, 240 lbs.) essentially took over the starting role and bowled his way to 265 yards and 2 touchdowns on 82 carries, a 3.2-yard average. Green looks to be the guy, but really, any of three players could garner the bulk of the attempts. He has some giddyup, but mostly, he’s a between-the-tackles runner who won’t make many people miss. The other likely option is fifth year senior Fitzgerald Toussaint (5’10”, 200 lbs.), a scatback type who has been slowed a tiny bit since a broken ankle suffered in 2012. He’s started most of the games this year and has 183 carries for 646 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, plus 17 catches for 203 yards. Toussaint has the best big-play ability of the backs and seems to have taken on more of the third down back type snaps late in the season. The starting fullback is redshirt sophomore Joe Kerridge (6’0″, 238 lbs.), who has 1 carry and 5 catches on the season, mostly playing the role of a lead blocker.
Backups: Freshman De’Veon Smith (5’11”, 224 lbs.) is the main backup after the first two guys, and he’s a ball of churning legs who runs like I imagine a stegosaurus might: slowly but dangerously for anyone trying to bring him down. He has just 22 carries on the year for 110 yards, but his best game came in the regular season finale against Ohio State (7 carries, 57 yards). Redshirt sophomore Justice Hayes (5’10”, 192 lbs.) is mostly a third down back and has spent some time at slot receiver; he has just 1 carry for 7 yards on the year, plus 3 catches for 18 yards. I do not expect to see him much. Sophomore fullback Sione Houma (6’0″, 231 lbs.) has 1 catch for 9 yards and fills in occasionally for Kerridge.

KANSAS STATE
Starter: Fifth year senior John Hubert (5’7″, 191 lbs.) gets the vast majority of the running back carries and will likely surpass 1,000 yards in the bowl game; he currently has 182 carries for 968 yards and 9 touchdowns. He runs with a fair amount of power and quickness and has gone over 900 yards for three consecutive years. Look for Hubert to try to take advantage of cutback lanes out of the pistol, and he’s quick enough to get on the edge with some option looks. The Wolverines are solid against the run, but Hubert presents a challenge and is coming off a 220-yard performance against Kansas. Redshirt freshman Glenn Gronkowski (6’3″, 234 lbs.) is the younger brother of New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and the starting fullback. He’s rarely used in the running game, but he has 4 catches for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns; his scores have gone for 67, 50, and 29 yards, so he can be dangerous out of the backfield.
Backups: Senior Robert Rose (5’4″, 176 lbs. and no, that’s not a typo) is the only notable backup, but he has 22 carries for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns. Co-starting quarterback Daniel Sams (profiled yesterday) is essentially Hubert’s partner in crime in the backfield.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan’s running backs have yet to put fear into anyone this season, and despite a slight improvement in the running game over the past couple contests, the likelihood is small that Michigan blows the doors off KSU on the ground. Of course, much of that is the result of a young, underperforming offensive line. Meanwhile, Hubert has had more room to run than Michigan’s guys, and he has a skill of elusiveness that . . . uh . . . eludes Michigan’s trio of runners. We have seen the Wolverines come out with some innovative game plans in recent years (2008 against Florida, 2013 against South Carolina), but offensive coordinator Al Borges has limited options with what his line can block and what his backs can do. The Wolverines will probably do what they’ve been doing over the past couple games (lots of inside zones, bubble screen draws), and the Wildcats will also probably try to do what they do best and run inside zones and some powers with Hubert and Sams.

ADVANTAGE: Kansas State

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Quarterbacks

Jake Waters (#15) and Daniel Sams (#4)

MICHIGAN
Starter: Redshirt junior Devin Gardner (6’4″, 210 lbs.) started all twelve games for Michigan this year and had a roller coaster of a season. He put up pretty solid overall statistics (60% completions, 2960 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), but the early part of the year was marred with interceptions and fumbles against some mediocre teams. Gardner is a very mobile quarterback in the mold of the San Francisco 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick, but he has been slowed by injuries suffered behind a poor offensive line. He has the physical ability to make any throw and to outrun most defenders (483 yards and 11 scores on the ground), but the confidence to make those plays waned after he threw 10 interceptions in the first six games. The ball security improved during the second half of the year, and he turned in a dazzling performance against Ohio State in the regular season finale (32/45, 451 yards, 4 touchdowns).
Backups: Freshman Shane Morris (6’3″, 201 lbs.) played sparingly this year, attempting just 9 passes; he completed 5, threw for 65 yards, and had 1 interception. In one late-game series against Michigan State, he literally fell on his face while trying to scramble for a first down. Morris is strictly a pocket passer who has a strong tendency to throw only to his left. Redshirt freshman Brian Cleary (6’3″, 209 lbs.) has barely played at all and is a walk-on.

KANSAS STATE

Starters: The Wildcats have a two-platoon system at quarterback, with redshirt junior JakeWaters (138/233, 59% completions, 2198 yards, 15 touchdowns, 9 interceptions) being the thrower and redshirt sophomore Daniel Sams being the runner (38/52, 73% completions, 452 yards, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Sams has 784 yards and a 5.3-yard average, along with 11 touchdowns; Waters isn’t bad on the hoof with 270 yards, 2.6 yards/carry, and 6 touchdowns. Sams (6’2″, 207 lbs.) is a spindly-legged runner who runs a little like Devin Gardner, but he’s more unrefined as a passer and can get spooked fairly easily, which isn’t a terrible thing if you can take off and run. When he’s in the game, look for single wing type of plays that are designed quarterback runs, with guards pulling and fullbacks leading up through. A Big Ten corollary might be former Purdue quarterback/running back Justin Siller. Waters (6’1″, 210 lbs.) is a junior college transfer who was the National Junior College Athletic Association Player of the Year last season at Iowa Western. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he’s not the most accurate guy and can force some throws. He can run a little bit inside, but he’s not the type of guy to threaten the edge.
Backups: No other quarterback has attempted a pass this year.

THE TAKEAWAY
Gardner is a better quarterback than Waters or Sams, but the Wildcats have a pretty effective combination. When Gardner is on his game like he was against Ohio State, he’s virtually unstoppable because he can run and throw; when he’s scared of the pass rush, he gets tentative, pulls his eyes down, and plays tight. His play is largely dependent on whether Michigan can establish a running game and protect him. Waters is coming off a poor three-game stretch where he completed 50% of his passes for 7 touchdowns and 4 picks against TCU, Oklahoma, and Kansas; Sams barely played against the latter two, but had 109 yards rushing against the Horned Frogs. Michigan has done just enough against the two-headed quarterback system of Northwestern over the past couple years to eke out a couple wins. Sams at quarterback is pretty much a telegraphed run, so we’ll see if the Wolverines can handle the Wildcats up front.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

Preview: Michigan vs. Ohio State

Rush Offense vs. Ohio Sate Rush Defense
Michigan is now 101st in yards/game with 129 and #114 with just 3.16 yards/carry. It’s ugly. Michigan’s interior offensive line is getting abused on a weekly basis, and there’s no help in sight. Long-time starter Fitzgerald Toussaint is averaging 3.4 yards/carry, while freshman Derrick Green has taken the bulk of the carries for the past couple weeks and is still averaging only 3.1 yards/carry. Quarterback Devin Gardner is Michigan’s big-play threat in the running game, but he looks battered and a step slower than he did in the first half of the year. The Wolverines have allowed 102 tackles for loss so far this year, second-worst in the nation to Idaho. Ohio State is #6 in the country and giving up just 95 yards/game on the ground, along with a 2.89 yards/carry average, which is good for #3 in the country. Their leading tackler is junior weakside linebacker Ryan Shazier (6’2″, 230 lbs.) with 109 stops, followed by redshirt senior free safety C.J. Barnett (6’1″, 204 lbs.) with 61. Yes, the leading tackler has 48 more tackles than the next guy. The entire front four was recruited by Michigan coming out of high school – freshman strongside end Joey Bosa (6’5″, 275 lbs.), junior defensive tackle Michael Bennett (6’3″, 285 lbs.), junior nose tackle Joel Hale (6’4″, 310 lbs.), and sophomore weakside end Noah Spence (6’4″, 252 lbs.). Shazier leads the team with a whopping 20.5 tackles for loss, while Spence, Bennett, and Bosa have 12.5, 10, and 9, respectively, and the Buckeyes rank #26 in the country with 75 tackles for loss as a team. The front four are going to overwhelm Michigan’s offensive line, and Shazier is going to be free to roam.
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
Michigan has been tumbling in their pass efficiency, now ranking #46 in the nation (138.5) in that category, along with #63 at 234 yards passing/game. Gardner completes just 58.7% of his passes and has thrown 17 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Wide receiver Jeremy Gallon has surpassed a thousand yards and now sits at 71 catches for 1,109 yards and 8 touchdowns. Tight end/wide receiver hybrid Devin Funchess is a 6’5″, 235 lb. mismatch nightmare who has 43 catches for 686 yards and 5 scores, although Michigan rarely goes to him in the red zone. Gardner has been sacked 32 times, good enough for #112 in the country. Ohio State is #81 in passing defense, giving up 238 yards/game through the air with a 122.7 passer rating allowed (#50). They have made 13 interceptions, which is #34 in the nation, and the leading interceptors are cornerbacks redshirt junior Bradley Roby (5’11”, 192 lbs.) and junior Doran Grant (5’11”, 191 lbs.), both of whom have 3 picks and 1 touchdown. Spence leads the team with 7 sacks, while Shazier is just behind with 6.5; overall, the Buckeyes are #2 in that category with 36 on the year. Last year backup defensive tackle Adolphus Washington beat All-America left tackle Taylor Lewan for a sack, so one can only imagine what this front will do to Michigan’s line this year. Michigan’s receivers can beat OSU’s secondary if Gardner has time, but that’s a tall order.
Advantage: Ohio State

Rush Defense vs. Ohio State Rush Offense
The Wolverines give up just 116 yards/game, good enough for #14 in the country, and the 3.23 yards/carry allowed is #15. It’s a very solid crew. The problem last week against Iowa arose when third-leading tackler Desmond Morgan (69), the middle linebacker, left in the first quarter with an injury, only to be followed out of the game by leading tackler James Ross (81), the weakside linebacker. Weakside end Frank Clark leads the team with 12.5 tackles for loss, and both strongside linebacker and utility defensive lineman Jibreel Black have 7.5 on the year. The Buckeyes have an experienced offensive line with fifth year senior Jack Mewhort (6’6″, 308 lbs.), senior Andrew Norwell (6’6″, 316 lbs.), fifth year senior Corey Linsley (6’3″, 297 lbs.), fifth year senior Marcus Hall (6’5″, 315 lbs.), and sophomore Taylor Decker (6’7″, 315 lbs.) from left to right. That’s a significant size advantage compared to Michigan’s undersized defensive front. Ohio State gains 315 yards/game on the ground (#6 nationally) and averages 6.91 yards/carry (#1). They’re led by senior Carlos Hyde (6’0″, 235 lbs.;1,064 yards, 13 touchdowns), junior quarterback Braxton Miller (6’2″, 215 lbs.; 738 yards, 5 touchdowns), and redshirt senior Jordan Hall (5’9″, 191 lbs.; 519 yards, 8 touchdowns). Every offensive player who has notched a carry this season averages 5.32 yards per carry or higher. This is strength against strength but . . .
Advantage: Ohio State

Pass Defense vs. Ohio State Pass Offense
Michigan is the #80 pass defense in the nation in giving up 237 yards/game through the air, but they’re #32 in passer efficiency rating allowed (118.17). Blake Countess grabbed his fifth interception of the year last week, and Raymon Taylor pulled in his fourth; those two have combined for the most interceptions by a cornerback duo since Charles Woodson (8) and Andre Weathers (2) combined for 10 picks in 1997. Overall, Michigan is #13 nationally in that category with 16 picks. The Wolverines are 69th with 21 quarterback takedowns, led by Clark and Cameron Gordon with 5 and 4, respectively. Ohio State throws for 216 yards/game, which is 77th in the nation. Miller and fifth year senior backup Kenny Guiton (6’3″, 208 lbs.) have combined for a 164.92 passer rating, though, which is #8. They don’t need to throw the ball as much when they run it so well. Miller has 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while Guiton has 12 and 2. I mention both because Guiton is a very capable passer who started some games while Miller was hurt and still plays in certain packages because of his abilities; Guiton could probably start for most other Big Ten teams. The Buckeyes spread out the ball well, although defenses have adjusted to junior Devin Smith (6’1″, 198 lbs.; 40 catches, 591 yards, 7 touchdowns) as a big play threat. Senior Corey Brown (6’0″, 190 lbs.) leads the team with 49 receptions for 596 yards and 9 scores. Junior tight end Jeff Heuerman (6’6″, 252 lbs.), the son of a former Michigan basketball player, has 22 catches for 314 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Buckeyes have allowed just 13 sacks this year, good enough for #11 in the country. The Wolverines have improved their passing defense in recent weeks and might be able to prevent big plays, but Miller’s scrambling ability and the lack of a pass rush should allow the Buckeyes to march the ball down the field.
Advantage: Ohio State

Roster Notes

• Players who held Michigan offers include CB Eli Apple, OT Darryl Baldwin, TE Marcus Baugh, DE Michael Bennett, S Devan Bogard, DE Joey Bosa, S Corey Brown, CB Cameron Burrows, CB Gareon Conley, OT Taylor Decker, OT Kyle Dodson, RB Bri’onte Dunn, LB Curtis Grant, CB Doran Grant, DT Joel Hale, RB Jordan Hall, OG Marcus Hall, TE Jeff Heuerman, DT Michael Hill, QB Cardale Jones, OT Evan Lisle, QB Braxton Miller, DE Steve Miller, OG Billy Price, CB Armani Reeves, DE Chris Rock, DT Tommy Schutt, WR Devin Smith, DE Noah Spence, S Ron Tanner, S Jayme Thompson, TE Nick Vannett, DE Adolphus Washington, and LB Camren Williams
• DE Chris Rock signed with Michigan in 2011 and redshirted that year before quitting the team and walking on at Ohio State prior to the 2013 season.
• CB Gareon Conley was once committed to Michigan.
• Graduate assistant Bryant Haines was a Butkus Award finalist under Brady Hoke when Hoke was head coach at Ball State.
• The only Michigan native on Ohio State’s roster is freshman walk-on OG Ben Moffitt from Shelby Township (MI) Eisenhower.

Visitors
Here’s a link to the lengthy visitors list for this weekend.


Predictions

• We see Shane Morris at QB for an extended time, which will not go well.
• Carlos Hyde runs over Michigan’s defense for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns.
• Michigan’s quarterbacks get sacked 6 times and throw 2 picks.
• Devin Funchess has a big game.
• Ohio State 31, Michigan 17

Last Time They Played . . . 

• Devin Gardner went 11/20 for 171 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
• Roy Roundtree had a 75-yard touchdown catch
• Denard Robinson ran 10 times for 122 yards, including a 67-yard touchdown
• Ohio State 26, Michigan 21