Washington (and former Michigan) WR Giles Jackson (image via SI)
RUSH OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH DEFENSE Michigan is #34 in rush offense (194.8 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.13). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the top running back (77 carries, 540 yards, 6 TD) with Donovan Edwards (59 carries, 258 yards, 2 TD) still playing a big role as a backup. QB Alex Orji is the third-leading rusher, but he has just 55 yards on 22 carries since taking over as the starter two weeks ago. LT Myles Hinton is likely to miss the game due to injury, and naturally, he’s Michigan’s best lineman, so fifth year senior Jeffrey Persi will likely get the start on the left side. According to PFF, Persi is the second best run blocker of the linemen, so perhaps the drop-off there will not be too significant. The rest of the line has been overwhelming, but it will be interesting to see if Michigan’s platoon of Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen continues at center. Defensively, Washington is #51 in rush defense (121.8 yards allowed/game) and #58 in yards allowed per carry (3.74). Last week they gave up 184 yards on 33 carries to Rutgers, including 25 attempts for 132 yards and 1 touchdown by Kyle Monongai. The leading tackler is senior MLB Carson Bruener (6’2″, 226) with 30 tackles, followed by fifth year senior WLB Alphonzo Tuputala (6’2″, 230) with 25. The Huskies start five transfers, including two on the defensive line; head coach Jedd Fisch brought with him from Arizona a redshirt sophomore DE/OLB Isaiah Ward (6’5″, 227), who is quite clearly undersized. Senior DT Sebastian Valdez (6’4″, 305) is in his first season at the FBS level after transferring from Montana State. Advantage: Michigan
RUSH OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH DEFENSE Michigan is now #31 in rushing offense (205 yards/game) and tied for #33 in yards per carry (5.57) with UNLV. The breakout star of this year’s team has been RB Kalel Mullings, who had 17 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns against USC last week, including a 53-yard touchdown, a 63-yard run to set up the winning score, and the game-winning 2-yard score on 4th down. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that the all-new offensive line has struggled. Michigan received just a 57.5 run blocking grade against the Trojans. There has been some platooning going on at center between Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen, but the personnel at the other spots has been steady. RB Donovan Edwards broke out with a 41-yard touchdown last week, and new starting QB Alex Orji ran 13 times for 43 yards and averages 4.4 yards/carry for the year. Defensively, Minnesota is #56 in rushing defense (123.5 yrds allowed/game) and #62 in yards allowed per carry (3.81). Last week Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson ran 21 times for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns, and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton put up 129 yards in week one, albeit on 30 carries for a so-so 4.3 yards/carry clip. Redshirt sophomore MLB Maverick Baranowski (6’2″, 230) leads the team with 27 tackles, followed closely by fifth year senior WLB Cody Lindenberg (6’3″, 240) with 26 stops. Baranowski and fifth year senior nickel Jack Henderson (6’2″, 215) lead the team with 2.5 tackles for loss each, chased by fifth year senior OLB Danny Striggow (6’5″, 255) with 2.0 TFLs. The middle of the line features fifth year senior DT Jalen Logan-Redding (6’4″, 290) and redshirt junior NT Deven Eastern (6’6″, 310); Eastern has only graded out on PFF higher than 57.0 when he played against FCS Rhode Island, while Logan-Redding has a couple grades in the 70s balanced with sub-60 scores against the two Power 4 opponents. Advantage: Michigan
NOTE:Unfortunately, I ran out of time to finish the preview this week due to an unexpectedly busy Thursday night and Friday. So I’m posting what I had already written, plus a prediction for the outcome.
RUSH OFFENSE vs. USC RUSH DEFENSE Michigan is #50 in rush offense (176.3 yards/game) after a big week last week against Arkansas State, totaling 301 yards on the ground. The big gainer was RB Kalel Mullings, who had 15 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Wolverines are #42 in yards per carry (5.24), and Mullings is gaining 7.5 yards every time he touches the ball. Meanwhile, Donovan Edwards seemed to run a little harder last week and gained 82 yards on 17 carries with 1 touchdown. The offensive line seemed to gel a little bit against the Red Wolves with RG Giovanni El-Hadi notching the highest PFF run blocking grade. Michigan also introduced its six-lineman package, inserting Andrew Gentry as the extra man. It’s rumored there will be a change at center, where Greg Crippen will likely replace Dominick Giudice. Michigan also announced they would be making a change at QB, where 6’3″, 235 lb. Alex Orji will put to use his skills that have allowed him to run 10 times for 58 yards so far this year. USC is allowing 100 yards/game on the ground, which is good enough for #33 nationally, but they’re #77 in yards allowed per carry (4.17). The leading tacklers are senior LB Eric Gentry (6’6″, 215) with 14 tackles, senior LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (6’0″, 231), and redshirt sophomore S Kamari Ramsey (6’0″, 204) with 14, 13, and 12 stops, respectively. Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) and Ramsey (UCLA) were both poached this past off-season, with Ramsey having come from defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s prior stop with the Bruins. In fact, six of USC’s defensive starters were playing for other teams last year, including fifth year senior DT Gavin Meyer (6’3″, 290) and fifth year senior DT Nate Clifton (6’4″, 295). Lynn is from the Ravens coaching tree, just like Wink Martindale, Mike Macdonald, and Jesse Minter. Advantage: Michigan
PASS OFFENSE vs. USC PASS DEFENSE We don’t really know what the pass offense will look like this week, because Orji is taking over. Orji has not thrown the ball much, completing just 3/6 passes for 15 yards and 2 touchdowns. Michigan needs to take some shots downfield to keep the defense honest, but it remains to be seen whether Orji can complete any passes that are farther than about three yards downfield. Both touchdowns have come to players leaking out of the backfield in Edwards and TE Hogan Hansen. The pass blocking looked better last week, but it was against Arkansas State, so I’m not sure how much that translates. USC is #72 in pass defense (205.5 yards allowed/game) and #51 in yards allowed per attempt (6.2). They’re #81 in passing efficiency defense. Both of their opponents have completed at least 66% of their passes, and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier completed 30/39 throws for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Both of USC’s interceptions have come from linebackers, and no defensive back has recorded a pass breakup except for third-string CB Marcelles Williams, playing late in a 48-0 blowout win over Utah State. I have questions about how well their secondary can hold up, but I also have questions about whether Michigan can effectively pass the ball. The Trojans are #94 in sacks per game (1.5) with Gentry and Ramsey notching one each.
ROSTER NOTES
USC players recruited by Michigan include: DT Bear Alexander, WR Zachariah Branch, S Zion Branch, LB Raesjon Davis, WR Kyle Ford, S Marquis Gallegos, WR Makai Lemon, DE Anthony Lucas, OL Jonah Monheim, OL Mason Murphy, DT Kobe Pepe, OL Makai Saina,
USC players from the state of Michigan include: LB Desman Stephens (Clarkston)
RUSH OFFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE RUSH DEFENSE After two games, Michigan is in unfamiliar territory as the #101 rushing team in the country (114 yards/game) and the #87 team in yards per carry (4.0). The Wolverines are one of just eleven teams in the country with zero rushing touchdowns at this point. Michigan is also tied for #114 in rushing attempts per game (28.0), and that signifies the biggest issue. They have been unable to sustain drives, and Donovan Edwards (8) and Kalel Mullings (6) managed just 14 carries between them against Texas last week. That’s not enough touches for two of the three best athletes on the offense. Pro Football Focus ranks Michigan as the #47 run blocking team in the country. LG Josh Priebe and LT Myles Hinton rank as the top two blockers on the line, but there have been some major struggles opening holes. Starting running back Donovan Edwards has managed just 68 yards on 19 carries (3.58 yards/carry) so far this year. Arkansas State is #115 in rushing defense (199 yards allowed/game) and they’re #131 in yards allowed per carry (6.22). They’ve squeaked by Central Arkansas and Tulsa by a combined seven points, but they’ve given up 235 and 163 yards rushing, respectively, and 5 total rushing touchdowns. Senior hybrid safety Justin Parks (6’0″, 197 lbs.) and fifth year senior LB Charles Willekes (6’1″, 225) – a former Michigan State linebacker and the brother of former MSU DE Kenny Willekes – are tied for the team lead with 17 tackles, followed by fifth year senior LB Marvin Ham (6’1″, 231), a Colorado transfer, with 14 stops. The starting defensive tackles are 288 and 294 pounds, and some of the key backups are in the 270s. If Michigan is going to get back to playing smashmouth football, it needs to start this week against an undersized and less talented defense. Advantage: Michigan
RUSH OFFENSE vs. FRESNO STATE RUSH DEFENSE Michigan finished #55 in rushing yards (169.1 yards/game) and #52 in yards per carry (4.5) in 2023. Those aren’t the world’s most impressive numbers, but the consistency with which Michigan pulled off its run game was. Whether it was a good opponent or a bad one, Michigan was willing and able to run the ball. The guy on the cover of NCAA ’25 is senior RB Donovan Edwards (119 carries, 497 yards, 5 TD last season), who had 41- and 46-yard touchdowns in the national championship game. He struggled for much of last year and was near the bottom of the Big Ten in yards per carry until the game against Washington. The backup is former LB Kalel Mullings, a 6’2″, 233-pounder who ran 36 times for 222 yards and 1 touchdown last year. Up front the Wolverines lost their top six linemen to the NFL (four got drafted, two got signed as UDFAs); the assured starters are OG Giovanni El-Hadi, OT Myles Hinton, who transferred from Stanford prior to 2023, and OG Josh Priebe, who transferred from Northwestern this year. For Fresno State, one of the better players is fifth year senior DE Devo Bridges (6’2″, 255), who had 30 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks last year. The other bookend is former 5-star USC DE Korey Foreman (6’4″, 245), who has 24 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and 1 interception over three years in college. Both starting defensive tackles are sub-300 pounders. The leading returning tackler is weakside linebacker Malachi Langley (6’1″, 236), who made 84 tackles and 5 tackles for loss a season ago. The Bulldogs finished #97 in rush defense (166.2 yards allowed/game) and #81 in yards allowed per carry (4.33) last season. Advantage: Michigan
