Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan vs. Michigan State

RUSH OFFENSE vs. MSU RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is a disappointing 45th in rushing offense (180.3 yards/game) despite being unable to do the whole passing thing well. They average 4.76 yards/carry, which ties them for 54th nationally. Kalel Mullings (110 carries, 676 yards, 7 TD) is the leader in the backfield, while backup Donovan Edwards (80 carries, 391 yards, 3 TD) gave up his second fumble of the season last Saturday. It might be worth mentioning QB Alex Orji, too, who has not played for the majority of the past two games (he played three series against Washington) but who has 35 carries for 124 yards this year. With the turnovers given up by QB Jack Tuttle over the past couple weeks, the staff may work in Orji a little more. Michigan had three new starters on the offensive line last week with Jeff Persi at LT, Greg Crippen at C, and Andrew Gentry at RT, but starting LT Myles Hinton – Michigan’s best lineman – may return on Saturday. Defensively, Michigan State is #53 in rushing defense (131.1 yards/game) and #46 in yards allowed per carry (3.78). The last three teams MSU has played have averaged over 5.2 yards/carry, but two of those are top-five teams in Ohio State and Oregon, and the third was Iowa, which has a pretty solid running back in Kaleb Johnson; Johnson had 14 carries for 98 yards and 1 score, but one of those carries was a 75-yard touchdown, so his other 13 attempts went for 23 yards. The leading tackler is senior Wisconsin transfer Jordan Turner, a Farmington High School product, who is a 6’1″, 231 lb. middle linebacker with 43 stops. Next is fifth year senior LB Cal Haladay (6’1″, 233) with 34 tackles and then junior UCF transfer strong safety Nikai Martinez (5’11”, 191) with 31. Former Michigan DT commit Alex Van Sumeren (6’3″, 300) and fifth year senior D’Quan Douse (6’2″, 300) start at defensive tackle, but the Spartans rotate a lot of players in the front seven to keep them fresh. I do think Michigan can have success on the ground . . . if they use Kalel Mullings and Alex Orji appropriately, which is unfortunately a question mark.
Advantage: Michigan

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Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

RUSH OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #39 in rushing offense (191.3 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.06). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the #1 back for the offense (589 yards, 6.5 yards/carry, 6 TD) because of his ability to break tackles and move the chains, but he and Donovan Edwards (353 yards, 4.8 yards/carry, 3 TD) split carries in the last game with 14 each. There may be a shakeup on the offensive line: injured LT Myles Hinton is expected to return, which could allow fill-in tackle Jeff Persi to get a shot at right tackle; and it sounds like Greg Crippen will get a start at center over Dominick Giudice. Defensively, Illinois is #77 against the run (149.2 yards allowed/game) and #96 in yards allowed per carry (4.54). The last two opponents, Penn State and Purdue, have both run for 239 yards. The leading tackler is redshirt sophomore safety Matthew Bailey (6’2″, 215) with 38 stops; following him are redshirt junior MLB Dylan Rosiek (6’1″, 235) with 35 and redshirt junior free safety Miles Scott (5’11”, 210) with 33. The Illini don’t have a ton of size up front – their biggest regulars are two 305 pound nose tackles – but they do have a 6’3″, 275-pounder at OLB in Gabe Jacas who leads the team with 5 tackles for loss. Michigan should have an advantage when running the ball, especially if Crippen and/or Persi can be improvements over Giudice and redshirt freshman RT Evan Link.
Advantage: Michigan

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Preview: Michigan vs. Washington

RUSH OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #34 in rush offense (194.8 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.13). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the top running back (77 carries, 540 yards, 6 TD) with Donovan Edwards (59 carries, 258 yards, 2 TD) still playing a big role as a backup. QB Alex Orji is the third-leading rusher, but he has just 55 yards on 22 carries since taking over as the starter two weeks ago. LT Myles Hinton is likely to miss the game due to injury, and naturally, he’s Michigan’s best lineman, so fifth year senior Jeffrey Persi will likely get the start on the left side. According to PFF, Persi is the second best run blocker of the linemen, so perhaps the drop-off there will not be too significant. The rest of the line has been overwhelming, but it will be interesting to see if Michigan’s platoon of Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen continues at center. Defensively, Washington is #51 in rush defense (121.8 yards allowed/game) and #58 in yards allowed per carry (3.74). Last week they gave up 184 yards on 33 carries to Rutgers, including 25 attempts for 132 yards and 1 touchdown by Kyle Monongai. The leading tackler is senior MLB Carson Bruener (6’2″, 226) with 30 tackles, followed by fifth year senior WLB Alphonzo Tuputala (6’2″, 230) with 25. The Huskies start five transfers, including two on the defensive line; head coach Jedd Fisch brought with him from Arizona a redshirt sophomore DE/OLB Isaiah Ward (6’5″, 227), who is quite clearly undersized. Senior DT Sebastian Valdez (6’4″, 305) is in his first season at the FBS level after transferring from Montana State.
Advantage: Michigan

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Preview: Michigan vs. Minnesota

RUSH OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is now #31 in rushing offense (205 yards/game) and tied for #33 in yards per carry (5.57) with UNLV. The breakout star of this year’s team has been RB Kalel Mullings, who had 17 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns against USC last week, including a 53-yard touchdown, a 63-yard run to set up the winning score, and the game-winning 2-yard score on 4th down. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that the all-new offensive line has struggled. Michigan received just a 57.5 run blocking grade against the Trojans. There has been some platooning going on at center between Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen, but the personnel at the other spots has been steady. RB Donovan Edwards broke out with a 41-yard touchdown last week, and new starting QB Alex Orji ran 13 times for 43 yards and averages 4.4 yards/carry for the year. Defensively, Minnesota is #56 in rushing defense (123.5 yrds allowed/game) and #62 in yards allowed per carry (3.81). Last week Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson ran 21 times for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns, and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton put up 129 yards in week one, albeit on 30 carries for a so-so 4.3 yards/carry clip. Redshirt sophomore MLB Maverick Baranowski (6’2″, 230) leads the team with 27 tackles, followed closely by fifth year senior WLB Cody Lindenberg (6’3″, 240) with 26 stops. Baranowski and fifth year senior nickel Jack Henderson (6’2″, 215) lead the team with 2.5 tackles for loss each, chased by fifth year senior OLB Danny Striggow (6’5″, 255) with 2.0 TFLs. The middle of the line features fifth year senior DT Jalen Logan-Redding (6’4″, 290) and redshirt junior NT Deven Eastern (6’6″, 310); Eastern has only graded out on PFF higher than 57.0 when he played against FCS Rhode Island, while Logan-Redding has a couple grades in the 70s balanced with sub-60 scores against the two Power 4 opponents.
Advantage: Michigan

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Preview: Michigan vs. USC

NOTE: Unfortunately, I ran out of time to finish the preview this week due to an unexpectedly busy Thursday night and Friday. So I’m posting what I had already written, plus a prediction for the outcome.

RUSH OFFENSE vs. USC RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #50 in rush offense (176.3 yards/game) after a big week last week against Arkansas State, totaling 301 yards on the ground. The big gainer was RB Kalel Mullings, who had 15 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Wolverines are #42 in yards per carry (5.24), and Mullings is gaining 7.5 yards every time he touches the ball. Meanwhile, Donovan Edwards seemed to run a little harder last week and gained 82 yards on 17 carries with 1 touchdown. The offensive line seemed to gel a little bit against the Red Wolves with RG Giovanni El-Hadi notching the highest PFF run blocking grade. Michigan also introduced its six-lineman package, inserting Andrew Gentry as the extra man. It’s rumored there will be a change at center, where Greg Crippen will likely replace Dominick Giudice. Michigan also announced they would be making a change at QB, where 6’3″, 235 lb. Alex Orji will put to use his skills that have allowed him to run 10 times for 58 yards so far this year. USC is allowing 100 yards/game on the ground, which is good enough for #33 nationally, but they’re #77 in yards allowed per carry (4.17). The leading tacklers are senior LB Eric Gentry (6’6″, 215) with 14 tackles, senior LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (6’0″, 231), and redshirt sophomore S Kamari Ramsey (6’0″, 204) with 14, 13, and 12 stops, respectively. Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) and Ramsey (UCLA) were both poached this past off-season, with Ramsey having come from defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s prior stop with the Bruins. In fact, six of USC’s defensive starters were playing for other teams last year, including fifth year senior DT Gavin Meyer (6’3″, 290) and fifth year senior DT Nate Clifton (6’4″, 295). Lynn is from the Ravens coaching tree, just like Wink Martindale, Mike Macdonald, and Jesse Minter.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS OFFENSE vs. USC PASS DEFENSE
We don’t really know what the pass offense will look like this week, because Orji is taking over. Orji has not thrown the ball much, completing just 3/6 passes for 15 yards and 2 touchdowns. Michigan needs to take some shots downfield to keep the defense honest, but it remains to be seen whether Orji can complete any passes that are farther than about three yards downfield. Both touchdowns have come to players leaking out of the backfield in Edwards and TE Hogan Hansen. The pass blocking looked better last week, but it was against Arkansas State, so I’m not sure how much that translates. USC is #72 in pass defense (205.5 yards allowed/game) and #51 in yards allowed per attempt (6.2). They’re #81 in passing efficiency defense. Both of their opponents have completed at least 66% of their passes, and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier completed 30/39 throws for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Both of USC’s interceptions have come from linebackers, and no defensive back has recorded a pass breakup except for third-string CB Marcelles Williams, playing late in a 48-0 blowout win over Utah State. I have questions about how well their secondary can hold up, but I also have questions about whether Michigan can effectively pass the ball. The Trojans are #94 in sacks per game (1.5) with Gentry and Ramsey notching one each.

ROSTER NOTES

• USC players recruited by Michigan include: DT Bear Alexander, WR Zachariah Branch, S Zion Branch, LB Raesjon Davis, WR Kyle Ford, S Marquis Gallegos, WR Makai Lemon, DE Anthony Lucas, OL Jonah Monheim, OL Mason Murphy, DT Kobe Pepe, OL Makai Saina,
• USC players from the state of Michigan include: LB Desman Stephens (Clarkston)

PREDICTION

• USC 31, Michigan 23