James Hudson
Redshirt freshman offensive tackle James Hudson has decided to move on from the Michigan football program.
Hudson was a class of 2017 recruit who was a 247 Composite 4-star, the #13 defensive tackle, and #231 overall. I gave him a TTB Rating of 85 (LINK). Hudson started off playing defensive tackle at Michigan, but he switched to the offensive side of the ball, which is where I saw him fitting best when he came out of high school. Rumors out of this summer were that Hudson was pushing Juwann Bushell-Beatty for a starting offensive tackle spot, but obviously he lost that battle and had only been playing backup snaps so far this year.
This is an unfortunate development for Michigan. I thought Hudson was going to be a good offensive tackle, but he probably needed some more time to develop. Michigan needs offensive tackles and can’t afford to lose the good ones it has. It’s somewhat baffling that an offensive tackle would leave at this point with Bushell-Beatty graduating this year and Jon Runyan, Jr. done after next year.
Michigan now has just 80 scholarship players on the roster (LINK), so with 11 seniors graduating, the 2019 class should be at least 16 players strong.
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This hurts. I really hope this means the other underclassmen linemen are developing and he didn’t see a clear path to playing time.
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That’s my uninformed guess. With Runyan making loudmouths like me look dumb, he’ll be in another dogfight next year with a younger Mayfield, classmate (and ideally sized) Stueber, and then young Hayes as well
Baffling and unfortunate
“It’s somewhat baffling that an offensive tackle would leave at this point with Bushell-Beatty graduating this year and Jon Runyan, Jr. done after next year”
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I would guess it’s not a football-only decision.
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Funny to think a few weeks ago it was all but given that Hudson would start over JBB this year.
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Welcome to the new world of college football. Expect more of this kind of thing in the future, not less.
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Yep, agree
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Whatever’s best for him. I get that, in the long run, the best decision might be for him to stay. It might be best for him to go elsewhere and play, who knows?
At least now he gets to make that decision.
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But why now though? He’s not going to enroll at a new school in October, nor will he join a S&C for a new team. He (and Singleton) is basically losing/wasting a few months
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More second year departures can be expected. By that time, guys have a pretty good idea where they stand in the scheme of things, and if they don’t think they can look forward to meaningful PT in their third year, they’ll move on. Why not?
We’ll lose some guys who might have eventually ended up contributing in some way, but we will also shed some guys who will just be taking up two more scholarship years, in favor of guys who have a better chance to make an impact. Sentiment and loyalty will become less of a factor on both sides.
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That, but we’ll always be thin on experience. This is a big boost to GroupOf5 and Purdues of the Power5
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I think you can look at guys like Runyan, Higdon, JBB, Marshall, Winovich, Gil, Furbush, and Watson to see that the “writing on the wall” after 2 years doesn’t always turn out as expected.
Resilience is still admirable, and valuable to the program.
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The 5th year transfer and loosened restriction on red-shirts SHOULD make it easier for people to stick around for 3 or 4 years.
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Sure, the lower rates guys who assumed they had development years ahead of them will stick. But high 4stars that don’t see the field right away? It’ll be much harder to mentor them with talks if patience & resilience
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I’m not seeing a noticeable difference in transfer behavior – they happen with 3-star nobodies (e.g., Washington, Davis) as well as 4-stars and even 5-stars (e.g., Walker, Isaac),
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In the 2017 class alone, we’ve lost JaRaymond Hall, Deron Irving-Bey, Drew Singleton, and now Hudson transfer. That’s 4 young guys (2 at the critical OT position) in a single recruiting class. All were 247 4stars
I don’t remember this much attrition before, and can’t say for certain why, but the ease on transfer rules can’t help
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Its the “Law of 40% Attrition” I’ve touched on before which says that Approximately 40% of any football recruiting class will never fulfill their given elgibility at the university they originally signed with. Be it injury, kicked off team, home sick, transfer, etc.
40% of a given class will never use their entire eligibility at the school they originally signed with.
If Michigan signs 25 players; 10 of them, on average, will never use their full 4 years at Michigan for what ever reason or lack thereof. As soon as they set foot on campus, 10 of them will be gone. Its just a matter of which 10…….INTJohn
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Without looking at the actual numbers, I would think that number is probably higher.
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FWIW, Michigan’s coaching staff had pegged Hall as an offensive guard.
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Most of Michigan’s 2017 class was 4 stars (19 of 29).
I’m not sure I’m seeing why making it easier to redshirt (or transfer as a 5th year) would make it more likely for young players to transfer.
The only change that I’m noticing is that Harbaugh is more cut-throat with roster management. Seen it with recruits, injured players, and disappointments (e.g., Kingston Davis asked to move to FB). Otherwise, things seem more or less the same.
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1. They weren’t RSFr when this rule was implemented
2. They weren’t highly sought after recruits, as are Hudson & Singleton
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Most if not all of those guys were either getting significant playing time by their second year, or had a reasonable expectation of it by their third year, so yeah, your best argument is that it usually does turn out as expected.
Oline is especially tough. Even in a close game against a strong opponent, you’re going to rotate RBs and Dlinemen, use extra TEs or CBs at times, but you’re probably going to use the same five guys on the Oline all game, so the chances for meaningful PT if you’re not a starter are more limited.
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Higdon was 4th on the team in carries his soph year, Per Thunder, “he averaged just 2.2 yards/carry over the final six contests.” 3 of the 4 were coming back next year, including a younger player expected to start over him, a 5th year senior some saw as a NFL-caliber talent, and a 5-star recruit.
Nobody really expected Higdon to start, let alone rush for (just about) 1,000 yards his junior year and be in the conversation for all-conference as a senior.
Higdon’s probably the weakest example of the guys i listed and it’s still dead on. His second year outlook vs his production as a senior is totally different.
Runyan’s 2nd year outlook was backup center. Now in his 4th year he’s starting at LT on a (surprisingly) solid Big Ten OL.
Watson was getting all but pushed out the door by fans in favor of various freshman. Now he’s getting snaps over 3 CBs who may be going in round 1.
Winovich came in as a LB, moved to TE, and was buried behind a bunch of NFL d-linemen. Nobody was expecting an all-american caliber DE during his soph year. You (WCB) were chiding Michigan for recruiting “these kind” of edge players.
The “writing on the wall” is often wrong. Those who stay….
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The growth of the individuals on the team over a traditional 4 or 5 years at UM has always been for me one of the great things about college football.
These are good examples Lank.
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I agree GK. I see it as something to be celebrated and enjoyed, not cynically dismissed.
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Higdon played in 12 games as a sophomore and has 2 hundred yard games.
Watson played in 12 games as a RS soph and 13 as a RS junior. Nobody was “pushing him out” and he notion that “fans” push a player out is ludicrous.
Winovich played as a RS Soph and played all 13 games as a RS junior. That no one was was predicting AA status for him in his third year is a irrelevamt straw man. There was no “writing on the wall” for him or any of the others you mentioned. I stand by my statement.
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Your rule of thumb was you know by 2nd year where you stand. In the case of Watson that is dead wrong.
You’re talking about 3rd and 4th year playing time, which probably says enough in and of itself.
But just to be clear about how it went down — Watson looked like a backup at best heading into those years (Thunder ranked him in the 50s and mid 30s in the countdown.)
Thunder’s take heading into Watson’s senior (4th year) was generally negative and I don’t think he was an outlier in that perception.
https://touch-the-banner.com/2017-season-countdown-35-brandon-watson/
Though he’s still technically a backup the distinction is nominal. As a 5th year player he’s playing at an all-conference level.
Not only was the expectation wrong after his 2nd year, it was wrong after his 3rd year too. Watson continues to improve and exceed expectations. He didn’t bail when the road ahead looked tough.
Why not leave? Because it’s Michigan. Those who stay…
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Same thing for Winovich. You’re using playing time as a junior and senior to try to back up your claim that you can see the writing on the wall by your 2nd year.
Here is Thunder’s expectation heading into Winovich’s 3rd year. Again, I don’t think it was out of line with consensus: “Winovich might end up as a Brennen Beyer type who never really lights the world on fire, but does his job with enough effectiveness to be a potent backup or spot starter. ”
I don’t see how guys like Watson and Winovich are significantly different than a guy like Singleton – who was looking at a backup role in his junior year after special teams duty his sophomore (RS FR) season.
They could have left for more clear playing time at MAC schools, but they stuck it out, got better, and exceeded expectations.
There’s countless examples of early expectations being wrong. I was just naming a few on this team – didn’t even get into historical greats like Brady and Edwards who stayed resilient.
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Compare Hudson’s soph year outlook to JBBs.
https://touch-the-banner.com/2016-season-countdown-64-juwann-bushell-beatty/
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2016 was JBB’s third year, he’s a 2014 guy
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Right. The point is that after his 2nd year nobody expected him to start.
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Yeah; re the Law of 40% Attrition ( my name to it)…….
The data I have (which includes ALL P5 Uniz) which I think is thru 2015 so not inclusive of up to date reality but again ,I think includes previous 10 years or maybe 15 (I can dig it up but will take abit – so yeah I’m working from memeory) but a decent data set; Michigan was at 38%, which is normal average collectively; but none of this data re any university includes early nfl entries so yeah is definiately a lil bit higher strictly speaking if one includes those who left early for the NFL.
The 2 universities with the LOWEST % rate are Stanford & Northwestern, tied at an amazing 26% Attrition rate; only 1 in 4……… and oh gee! What do each of those 2 Unis have in common??? Yeah a strict academic acceptance rate that isn’t bent or slanted for any football players/athletes. So best way to greatly reduce the Attrition rate seems to be to recruit players who have maybe at least half a brain……….
Jes sayin………….INTJohn
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Yeah, I would just be more general about it and say half of guys won’t make it through to year 4 or 5, at least at prestige programs that get early NFL entries and high caliber talent who know they have options. Makes sense that elite academic schools would get more guys sticking around to get degrees.
The one point I would add is that coaching stability would affect this too, I would think. You’ll obviously get more attrition when a head coach moves. Nebraska is seeing this big time. Michigan had it with Rodriguez especially. etc.
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Here gang, I found it and it only took me half a cup of kawfee:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2y4waq/power_5_conference_attrition_rates_for_2002/
Enjoy!……….intjohn
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