Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan at Minnesota

Rush Offense vs. Minnesota Rush Defense
The Wolverines have the #27 rush offense with 207 yards/game.  The Gophers have the #84 rush defense giving up 178 yards/game.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is gaining 118 yards/game himself, but starting running back Fitzgerald Toussaint gains only 46 yards/game.  Last week when Robinson left the game, Michigan’s running game bogged down, and replacement quarterback Russell Bellomy has just 16 yards on 12 carries this season.  Defensive ends D.L. Wilhite and Ra’Shede Hageman have 14.5 tackles for loss between them, though 10.5 of those are sacks.  However, Minnesota’s top two tacklers are safeties Troy Stoudermire and Derrick Wells, which doesn’t bode well for their defense.  The top non-DB tackler is middle linebacker Mike Rallis.  Michigan might struggle to run the ball if Robinson is unavailable, but the Gophers have recently given up 182 yards to Northwestern’s Venric Mark; 341 yards to Wisconsin’s duo of Montee Ball and James White; and 177 yards to Iowa’s Mark Weisman.  If Toussaint and/or backup Thomas Rawls can’t gain significant chunks of yards against this run defense, then this team is in serious trouble.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Minnesota Pass Defense
The Wolverines have the #108 pass offense with 172 yards/game.  Minnesota has the #7 pass defense with 158 yards allowed/game and the #8 pass efficiency defense.  Of course, why pass the ball when you can run it so effectively against them?  Minnesota has picked off eight passes this season, with safety Derrick Wells and cornerback Michael Carter each picking off two.  The Gophers average two sacks/game, with the aforementioned Wilhite and Hageman combining for 10.5 sacks.  They likely won’t give Michigan too much of a problem because the Wolverines are solid in pass protection – #12 in the nation for giving up just .88 sacks/game – but if Bellomy plays because of Robinson’s injury, then all bets are off because Minnesota will likely blitz a ton.  If quarterback/receiver Devin Gardner spends this week practicing at quarterback, that could take away Michigan’s best big-play threat on the outside.  Michigan’s top five receivers have anywhere between 11-18 receptions, so the ball gets spread around fairly evenly.  I will give the nod here to Minnesota because Michigan’s quarterbacks are prone to turning over the ball and probably won’t throw very much.
Advantage: Minnesota

Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited LB Brendan Beal, LB Keanon Cooper, and OT Jonah Pirsig
• Offensive linemen Kyle and Luke McAvoy are the younger brothers of former Michigan offensive lineman Tim McAvoy
• Freshman defensive end Jackson Miller is from Okemos (MI) Okemos, redshirt freshman linebacker Dominic Schultz is from Port Huron (MI) Port Huron, and junior defensive back Kenny Watkins is from Birmingham (MI) Brother Rice

Preview: Michigan vs. Michigan State

Rush Offense vs. MSU Rush Defense
Michigan is #17 in rushing offense with 233 yards/game.  As you probably could have guess, Denard Robinson leads the team in rushing; he gets 134 yards/game himself and is the nation’s fourth-best rusher.  Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (46 yards/game) is feeling a push from backup Thomas Rawls, who has gained 174 yards and score 2 touchdowns on just 25 carries, albeit mostly in mop-up duty.  Meanwhile, the Spartans are #8 in the country against the run and give up just 91 yards/game.  There’s a bit of turmoil on their defense, though, because starting linebacker and captain Chris Norman was benched last week in favor of Taiwan Jones, and Kurtis Drummond was promoted to the starting role at safety, because of underperformance on their parts.  Linebacker Max Bullough leads the team with 58 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss.  Defensive ends Marcus Rush and William Gholston are both somewhat disruptive forces at defensive end, but the defensive tackles are mediocre.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. MSU Pass Defense
The Spartans have the #12 pass efficiency defense and the #17 pass defense, giving up just over 178 yards/game.  Clearly, this is not because teams are having so much success in the running game that they don’t have to pass.  The Spartans are legitimately good.  In the last couple games, Michigan has really committed to its running game and essentially given up on hoping that Denard Robinson’s passing can win games for them.  The Wolverines will use play action passes and get guys like Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess open that way.  The Spartans have a couple solid corners, and their front seven will get some pressure if Michigan is forced into obvious passing situations, so Michigan will have to stay on schedule by running the ball.  No MSU player has more than one interception, but Johnny Adams is considered by some to be the conference’s best corner.
Advantage: Michigan State

Rush Defense vs. MSU Rush Offense
The Wolverines are #55 in rush defense and give up 148 yards/game, but a huge chunk of those yards were piled up by Alabama and Air Force in the first couple weeks.  In the last three games, Michigan has given up 94, 56, and 105 yards on the ground.  The linebackers are rounding into form, and nose tackle Quinton Washington has started to assert himself as a bit of a space eater up the middle.  The Spartans are surprisingly 84th in the nation running the ball as a team; they get 144 yards/game, but workhorse tailback Le’veon Bell gets 130 of those each week.  Michigan State’s offensive line has been battered and wasn’t great to begin with, and that’s beginning to show.  Bell will gain some yards because he breaks tackles, but this likely won’t be one of his better rushing days.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. MSU Pass Offense
The Spartans have thrown for 236 yards/game so far this season, but leading receiver Dion Sims might miss the game due to injury; he averages 4 receptions and 52 yards/game.  Keith Mumphery and Aaron Burbridge have both stepped up in recent weeks, and those are a couple guys who can run after the catch.  Michigan’s performance last week against Illinois jumped them all the way up to #3 nationally in passing yards allowed per game (139), but the Wolverines are #95 in sacks and don’t have great cover guys on the outside; however, they put pressure on quarterbacks by slanting linemen and sending guys from the back seven.  Quarterbacks can get rid of the ball, but they’re often in a hurry to do so.
Advantage: Michigan


Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited WR De’Anthony Arnett, WR Aaron Burbridge, RB Larry Caper, LB Ed Davis, S Kurtis Drummond, DE William Gholston, DT Tyler Hoover, WR Monty Madaris, LB Chris Norman, DE Marcus Rush, TE Dion Sims, and DE Lawrence Thomas.
• LS Taybor Pepper was once committed to Michigan as a preferred walk-on, but then signed with MSU after they offered a him a scholarship.

Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

It’s hard to find attractive girls from Illinois, so Jaime Edmondson wearing a Chicago Bears jersey will have to do.

Rush Offense vs. Illinois Rush Defense
Illinois has the #38 rushing defense in the country and they’re giving up 125 yards/game.  That’s not too bad of a total, but they just gave up 158 yards (on 25 carries) to the combo of Montee Ball and James White of the Wisconsin Badgers, so the potential is there for Denard Robinson and/or Fitzgerald Toussaint and/or Thomas Rawls to gain significant yardage.  Michigan just got done running for 304 yards against Purdue, with Robinson gaining 235 of those yards; that jumped Michigan up to the #29 running team.  The Illini have a couple decent interior players in the forms of middle linebacker Jonathan Brown and defensive end Michael Buchanan; Ashante Williams, who plays the Star position, leads the team in tackles with 41.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Illinois Pass Defense
Michigan’s pass offense isn’t very good, and that rests on the shoulders of quarterback Denard Robinson.  He has some capable targets and decent pass protection, but he’s just not a very good passer.  The Wolverines are the #101 passing offense in the country, and Robinson was trusted to throw just 16 passes last week (of which he completed 8); he now has a 53.9% completion percentage on the year.  On the flip side, Illinois has the #63 passing defense and the #97 pass efficiency defense; they’re also #89 in sacks, despite the presence of Buchanan.  Additionally, cornerback Terry Hawthorne may not be back from a scary head/neck injury he suffered last week.  Illinois isn’t very good at defending the pass, and Michigan isn’t very good at passing.  Sounds like quite the matchup of units.
Advantage: Michigan


Rush Defense vs. Illinois Rush Offense
The Wolverines have the #65 rushing defense in the country, but that seeming mediocrity was the result of playing two good rushing teams in the first two weeks (Alabama and Air Force).  In the last two games, Michigan has given up 3.0 yards/carry to Notre Dame and 2.3 yards/carry to Purdue.  The Illini are #94 nationally in rushing, and the two leading rushers are running backs Donovonn Young (38 yards/game) and Josh Ferguson (36 yards/game).  Nose tackle Quinton Washington has taken a couple steps forward this season, and Michigan’s linebackers are pretty darn good.  Last year Michigan’s interior dominated Illinois’ and held them to 37 yards on 33 attempts.  And while Michigan’s defensive line isn’t as good as it was last year, the difference isn’t big enough to make this an advantage for Illinois.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Defense vs. Illinois Pass Offense
Michigan has the #7 pass defense and the #26 pass efficiency defense, despite being 104th in the country in sacks with just one per game.  Of course, it helps that most of the teams the Wolverines have played are helmed by subpar quarterbacks, with the lone exception being Alabama’s A.J. McCarron.  Cornerback Raymon Taylor and safety Thomas Gordon each have 2 interceptions, and Craig Roh is the team leader in sacks with 1.5.  Illinois quarterback Reilly O’Toole has completed 57/73 passes for 514 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions; incumbent starter Nathan Scheelhaase is 65/104 for 659 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.  The numbers suggest that O’Toole is the superior player, but Scheelhaase has the edge in experience and has started the past couple games.  Ryan Lankford is leading receiver for the Illini with 25 receptions for 362 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Michigan probably won’t be able to get after the quarterback much, but they should be able to maintain fairly tight coverage and grab a pick or two.


Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited OT Ryan Nowicki and C Graham Pocic
• Players from Michigan include Birmingham (MI) Brother Rice WR Devin Church, Detroit (MI) Country Day WR Kenny Knight, Detroit (MI) Cass Tech DE Kenny Nelson, Orchard Lake (MI) St. Mary’s SS Earnest Thomas

Preview: Michigan at Notre Dame

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
Michigan is #45 nationally in rush offense, but Denard Robinson accounts for 117 of the team’s 192.3 yards/game.  The offensive line has generally struggled to create creases for anyone else.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame is #23 in rushing defense, giving up 96.3 yards/game.  They held Michigan State’s Le’Veon Bell to 77 yards on 19 carries (4.1 yards/attempt) and the entire Navy offense to 149 yards, a team that was #3 nationally in 2011 with 358 yards/game.  The Fighting Irish have done a good job of recruiting in recent years, and they now have several very good players in the front seven.  Denard Robinson has shown that he can run on these guys, but I have some concerns about whether the offensive line can hold up.
Advantage: Michigan


Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
After playing two cupcake defenses and one very good defense, Robinson is completing 54.6% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions; he’s the #39 rated passer in the country, thanks to some long completions.  However, two of those interceptions have been returned for touchdowns.  Michigan has its full complement of wide receivers, and the 6’4″ Devin Gardner leads the team in yards, touchdowns, and yards per catch.  Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are missing starting safety Jamoris Slaughter and starting cornerback Lo Wood for the season; the other starting corner Bennett Jackson had 2 interceptions against Purdue, and safety Zeke Motta isn’t much of a pass defender.  Receivers should be able to get open, but the 3-4 defense will probably put some pressure on Robinson in the pocket; Notre Dame sacked Michigan State quarterback Andrew Maxwell four times last week.  Defensive end Stephon Tuitt leads the country with 5 sacks and the team is sacking the quarterback 3.67 times per game.  Big plays will be there both ways, but based on past performance, I think Robinson will make some big things happen through the air or by scrambling.
Advantage: Michigan


Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
This matchup terrifies me, because Notre Dame has several running backs with a great deal of ability.  Theo Riddick had 107 yards and 2 touchdowns against Navy; George Atkinson is averaging 9.5 yards/carry; Cierre Wood returned last week to run for 56 yards on 10 carries against MSU; and quarterback Everett Golson can run a little bit.  Michigan has struggled on the inside, and both defensive end Brennen Beyer and defensive tackle Richard Ash are questionable to play due to injury.  They’re #104 nationally against the run. Riddick and Wood are both capable running backs, but Atkinson is the wild card.  He’s fast and physical and could be a huge game-breaker.  I do not see this phase going well for the Wolverines.

Advantage: Notre Dame


Pass Defense vs. Notre Dame Pass Offense
Golson is Notre Dame’s starter, but he’s backed up by a couple capable guys in Tommy Rees and Andrew Hendrix.  The youngster is completing just 58% of his passes for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, so he’s not lighting the world on fire, but if the running game produces, he won’t have to win it through the air.  The Fighting Irish have a handful of capable receivers, not just one guy to concentrate on like Michael Floyd the past few years.  Tight end/wide receiver Tyler Eifert, receiver T.J. Jones, receiver DaVaris Daniels, receiver Robby Toma, and running back Theo Riddick all have between 6 and 9 receptions.  Eifert, in particular, seems like a matchup problem because of his size (6’6″, 251 lbs.) and speed.  Notre Dame gives up 2.67 sacks/game, and Golson holds onto the ball too long sometimes, but Michigan barely gets after the quarterback unless they use Jake Ryan as a rusher.  Without starting cornerback Blake Countess, it might be a struggle for Michigan to cover each of the targets.
Advantage: Notre Dame


Roster Notes

• Michigan recruited K Kyle Brindza, WR Chris Brown, WR DaVaris Daniels, DT Sheldon Day, LB Dan Fox, QB Everett Golson, OT Mark Harrell, DE Jarron Jones, QB Gunner Kiel, OT Christian Lombard, OT Zack Martin, WR Davonte Neal, DT Louis Nix III, S Elijah Shumate, OG Chris Watt, TE Alex Welch, RB Cierre Wood, and CB Lo Wood.

Predictions

• Denard Robinson has his worst career performance of the Notre Dame series.
• Notre Dame gashes Michigan for 190 rushing yards.
• Big plays go Notre Dame’s way this year.
• Notre Dame 24, Michigan 20

Preview: Michigan vs. Alabama

Rush Offense vs. Alabama Rush Defense
Michigan had the #13 rushing offense in 2011 while averaging almost 222 yards a game.  Unfortunately, that included Fitzgerald Toussaint’s nearly 87 yards per game, which will likely disappear for week one while he serves a suspension for a DUI.  He’ll likely be replaced by sophomore Thomas Rawls, who had just 13 carries in non-critical situations last season.  Meanwhile, Alabama replaces nine starters on defense but had the #1 overall rushing defense in 2011.  They will still be good at stopping the run, even with all the new contributors.  The Crimson Tide will likely abuse the middle of Michigan’s offensive line with blitzes, slants, and brute strength.  I would not be surprised to see a total output like that from the Sugar Bowl against Virginia Tech, when Michigan rushed 30 times for 56 yards.
Advantage: Alabama


Pass Offense vs. Alabama Pass Defense
The Wolverines suffered from what amounted to a mediocre passing game last season, finishing #93 in total passing yardage and #40 in passing efficiency.  Robinson struggled early in the season while adjusting to a pro-style system; he improved later in the season when offensive coordinator Al Borges determined that Robinson isn’t a very good passer, instead calling easy passing plays.  On the season, Robinson completed 55% of his passes and threw 15 picks.  Now Michigan is without its top receiver from last season (Junior Hemingway) and has a crew of guys who aren’t #1 receivers or who haven’t played college ball yet.  Meanwhile, Alabama was #1 in passing defense, #1 in pass efficiency defense, and #29 in sacks.  Despite breaking in all the new starters, the Crimson Tide will still be better than Michigan in this area and cause some confusion for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Alabama
Rush Defense vs. Alabama Rush OffenseMichigan has new starters at all four spots along the defensive line, with Craig Roh moving from weakside end to the strong side.  It is expected to be the biggest weakness of the defense.  Meanwhile, all of the back seven return, including leading tackler Kenny Demens, the middle linebacker.  The Wolverines will probably put eight guys in the box (including safety Jordan Kovacs) and take their chances against the pass.  Starting running back Eddie Lacy may miss Saturday’s game with a sprained knee, so the rushing load may fall to junior Jalston Fowler (56 carries, 385 yards, 4 touchdowns last year) or true freshman T.J. Yeldon, a 6’2″, 216-pounder.  Redshirt freshman Demetrius Hart could also figure into the rotation.  Michigan’s safeties are good tacklers, so there shouldn’t be a ton of big plays in the running game, but Alabama will be able to push around the Wolverines up front.

Pass Defense vs. Alabama Pass Offense
The Crimson Tide were very balanced in 2011, rushing for 214 yards a game and passing for 215.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron is very careful with the football (just 5 interceptions last season), and while he doesn’t have a ton of capability to make big plays in the passing game, he was the 25th-most efficient passer in the country last season.  However, he lost his top four targets from last season, leaving junior Kenny Bell as the leading returning receiver (17 catches, 255 yards, 2 touchdowns).  Michigan was #16 in pass defense and #36 in pass efficiency defense, and all the key components of their coverage return.  The Wolverines will likely take a step back in sacks (#29 last season) now that Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen have graduated, but they will probably blitz more frequently to make up for the lack of athleticism up front.

Roster notes

• Michigan recruited DT Chris Bonds, S Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix, LB Trey DePriest, CB John Fulton, RB Dee Hart, CB Cyrus Jones, OL Ryan Kelly, OL Arie Kouandjio, OL Cyrus Kouandjio, LB Dillon Lee, CB Dee Milliner, LB Tana Patrick, RB Blake Sims, CB Geno Smith, DE Dalvin Tomlinson, and CB Jabriel Washington
• RB Dee Hart was once committed to Michigan prior to the firing of Rich Rodriguez
• Head coach Nick Saban and TE/ST coach Bobby Williams both used to be head coaches at Michigan State