Tag: game preview

Preview: Michigan vs. Iowa

Iowa running back Adam Robinson averages 96 yards a game rushing.

I haven’t had time this week for a full preview, so this is going to be fairly brief.

Rush Offense vs. Iowa Rush Defense
Iowa has the #2 rush defense in the country.  Michigan has the #6 rush offense.  Something has to give.  I’ll bet that Michigan runs for more than 63.2 yards (Iowa’s average), but Denard Robinson won’t be getting 200 yards against the Hawkeyes.  I like Michigan left tackle Taylor Lewan as a football player, but Iowa defensive end Adrian Clayborn is probably going to eat him alive.  Still, Iowa hasn’t played a team yet that has a great running game.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Iowa Pass Defense
Iowa is #28 in pass defense (179 yards a game), but #10 in pass efficiency defense.  I have a feeling that Denard Robinson is going to continue struggling in the passing game this week, because Iowa should be able to get a pass rush and harass him.  If Iowa’s defense can corral him with their front four, then Iowa’s back seven should be able to confuse Robinson and force him into some turnovers.
Advantage: Iowa

Rush Defense vs. Iowa Rush Offense
Iowa running back Adam Robinson is averaging 96 yards a game.  His backups are somewhat meaningless, but the starter averages 4.9 yards per attempt and Michigan can’t stop the run very well.  The game won’t be won on the ground by Iowa, but they should be able to pick up some yards in chunks, especially if nose tackle Mike Martin’s sprained ankle slows him down.  Reports indicate that middle linebacker Kenny Demens might get significant playing time, so perhaps there’s some hope for improvement against the run.
Advantage: Iowa

Pass Defense vs. Iowa Pass Defense
I’ve never been very impressed with Ricky Stanzi, but he’s doing well so far this year.  He’s thrown 10 touchdowns compared to only 2 interceptions.  Meanwhile, Iowa has a couple big play receivers in Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (15.9 yards a catch) and Marvin McNutt (18.3).  Those could be killer combinations for a Wolverines secondary that ranks #119 in the country against the pass.
Advantage: Iowa

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson throws two interceptions but breaks a 60-yard run.
• We see more of the backup running backs than we did last week.
• Ricky Stanzi throws a stupid interception like the gimme he tossed to Donovan Warren last year.
• Cameron Gordon gets beaten up the seam by a tight end.
• Iowa 28, Michigan 24

Preview: Michigan State at Michigan

Michigan State freshman running back Le’Veon Bell

Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is currently the #1 rusher in all of college football, and the Wolverines are the #3 rushing offense in the country.  Co-starting running back Michael Shaw should return from a tweaked knee to help out fellow starter Vincent Smith in the backfield, but neither has been extremely productive this season.  Shaw picked up a good chunk of his numbers against UMass, and Smith was unspectacular until his 56-yard touchdown run last week against Indiana; aside from that outburst, he’s averaging 3.78 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, Michigan State is ranked #20 against the run this season and just finished beating a run-heavy Wisconsin team.  Many media outlets suggested that MSU shut down Wisconsin’s run game, but UW averaged 5.3 yards per carry throughout the contest.  While the Spartans should be the toughest run defense Michigan has seen, no team has been able to come close to shutting down Robinson and his minions in the run game.  Despite the underperforming running backs, Robinson averages 9.2 yards a carry – and that’s despite missing the majority of the BGSU game due to injury.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense
It seems that a lot of people are overlooking this aspect of the matchup.  The Wolverines are the #38 passing offense in the country, while MSU lingers at #78.  With all the talent that MSU has recruited up front in the past few years, the secondary is suspect.  Tate Forcier had a subpar day for most of the 2009 game, but he finished with 223 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, including some big plays in the passing game.  If Michigan has early success in the running game, that should open up downfield throws.  Denard Robinson missed a couple streaking, wide open receivers last week against Indiana, and he’ll need to capitalize on those opportunities this week.  I don’t expect that Robinson will end up throwing for 400 yards or anything crazy like that, but big plays are bound to be there for the taking. 
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Michigan State Rush Offense
Michigan is ranked #37 in rush defense, although that statistic is a bit misleading.  With as bad as Michigan’s secondary is, teams like Indiana, Notre Dame, and UConn have been content to chuck the ball all over the field.  Of those top 37 teams, Michigan allows the fourth-highest yards per carry average (3.66).  This might be where the game is won or lost.  MSU’s starting running back, Edwin Baker, is averaging 7.1 yards per carry . . . and there’s not much dropoff when he comes out of the game, with top backup Le’Veon Bell averaging 7.4 yards per carry.  In fact, that’s not a dropoff at all.  Michigan has done a pretty good job of preventing huge runs so far this season, but teams have been able to get yards in chunks.  The difference this week might be that Baker and Bell have the ability to turn 15- or 20-yard runs into 80-yard runs.  Baker has speed that Michigan’s safeties can’t match, and Bell has the power to run through a lot of tackles.  Unlike previous opponents, I wouldn’t be surprised to see MSU run the ball, run the ball, and run it some more.
Advantage: Michigan State

Pass Defense vs. Michigan State Pass Offense
Ugh.  Rushing the ball is probably the safer option, but if the Spartans need to pass, they’ll be able to do so at will.  MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 67.5% of his passes and has a few good options to whom to throw the ball.  The only good thing is that Cousins has thrown four interceptions in his five games, so Michigan does have a chance to force some turnovers.  However, I truly believe that Michigan needs to rush four or more defenders in order to have a chance against the pass.  If the Wolverines keep rushing three, Cousins will have all day to pick apart Michigan’s makeshift secondary.  Michigan is literally last in the country

against the pass, and there’s no reason to believe that Saturday will show any kind of significant turnaround in that area.
Advantage: Michigan State

Final Predictions

• For the second time this season, Michigan will get outgained by an opponent.
• Denard Robinson will get injured and miss time . . . again.
• We see Michigan’s first trick play of the season (double pass, reverse, fake field goal, etc.).
• Roy Roundtree will have a huge game.
• Michigan State 38, Michigan 35

Preview: Michigan at Indiana

Expect to see a lot of this: Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell picking on Michigan’s secondary.

Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is currently the #2 rushing offense in the country with 331.25 yards a game.  Meanwhile, Indiana has been giving up 177 yards a game to the likes of Western Kentucky, Akron, and Towson to rank #92 in the nation.  This is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers.  Despite the return of starting middle linebacker Tyler Replogle, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, the Wolverines should be able to have their way.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is the leading rusher in the NCAA, and the only way Indiana should be able to stop him is by bruising his knee after a 30-yard run.  One caveat, though – there’s a strong possibility that running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder; 2 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD last week) and Michael Shaw (knee; 44 carries, 256 yards, 5 TDs this year) will miss Saturday’s game.  That leaves sophomore Vincent Smith, redshirt sophomore Michael Cox, and freshman Stephen Hopkins to pick up the slack in the running back rotation.  That shouldn’t matter too much, although those two missing players are big-play threats for Michigan’s offense.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan’s quarterbacks have only been sacked once this year, and the likelihood of Indiana’s front seven catching up to Denard Robinson is low.  The Hoosiers have only mustered four sacks this season in those three games against feeble opponents.  The biggest matchup problem here is 2010 Denard Robinson vs. 2009 Denard Robinson.  If 2010 Denard Robinson keeps up his torrid pace and throws like the 16th most efficient QB in the country, then this should be a clear victory for the Wolverines once again.  I haven’t seen any evidence that Robinson will regress to 2009 form, but his performance so far this season seems too good to be true.  He’s bound to have a bad game at some point, but will it happen against Indiana?  Well . . . probably not.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
The Wolverines have done a better job of limiting big runs in 2010.  With eight men consistently in the box, Michigan’s run defense hasn’t been great (#53 in the country, 135.25 yards a game), but big plays have been rare.  Hopefully that can remain true this week, too, because leading rusher Darius Willis (46 carries, 219 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) had an 85-yard TD against Michigan in 2009, and wideout Tandon Doss had a 25-yard TD in last year’s game, too.  One of the most memorable images from the 2009 season was of Willis outrunning safety Jordan Kovacs and cornerback J.T. Floyd to the endzone.  That was not a happy moment.  The only guy who had a prayer of catching Willis from behind was safety Troy Woolfolk, who’s currently healing from a broken ankle.  Michigan’s secondary is even a bit slower this year, as Floyd and Kovacs are back but Woolfolk’s replacement is Cam Gordon, who gets outrun by 265 lb. tight ends and MAC wide receivers.  Improved play from Michigan’s linebackers – as well as the eight-man front – should be able to stall Willis a little better this year, but there will be some frustrating moments.
Advantage: Indiana

Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
This is what scares me.  Bad opponents or not, Indiana averages 304 yards a game through the air (#11 in the country).  Michigan played a couple patsies and Notre Dame, but ranks #105 in the country in pass defense (264 yards a game) and #55 in pass efficiency defense.  Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 270 yards last year, and he’s supported by some good-sized receivers with decent but not great speed.  Free safety Cameron Gordon has been a liability in pass coverage, and I expect Indiana to test him repeatedly; the Hoosiers would be silly not to try.  Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to shut down a decent passing game, and I don’t think this is the week that they’ll step up.  Michigan fans will just have to pony up and expect some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Indiana

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Ben Chappell increases the team’s passing average by throwing for 305 yards or more
• Michigan finally gets a big play out of the return game
• My preseason upset pick will be proven wrong because . . .
• . . . Michigan will win 45-31

Preview: Michigan at Notre Dame

Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd catched a touchdown over Donovan Warren

Rush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
Denard Robinson showed last week that he can be an elite runner from the quarterback position. He ran for 197 yards on 29 carries against UConn. Meanwhile, Michigan’s actual running backs combined to average 3.4 yards per carry against the Huskies. The Fighting Irish should be geared to stop Robinson from running the ball. That means the Notre Dame contain men should stay home and force Robinson to hand off the ball in the zone read option. If I’m the defensive coordinator, I’m going to try to make Michigan’s unproven running backs beat me. This is a base 3-4 defense, and the blocking schemes will be different than against UConn. Michigan’s athletic offensive line should be able to get up on the linebackers, though, and provide some running lanes for Robinson and the backs. Notre Dame defensive end Ethan Johnson will be tough to handle for the offensive tackles, but this defense sets up well for David Molk, Steve Schilling, and Patrick Omameh to have a field day.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
Denard Robinson was 19/22 for 186 yards and 1 touchdown. That level of success will be difficult for Robinson to emulate this week against a veteran secondary that should be able to disguise coverages. Michigan’s passing game was pretty vanilla against UConn, and last year’s leading receiver, Roy Roundtree, might miss the game due to injury. Combine that with Notre Dame’s veteran outside linebackers who should be able to rush the passer, and I expect many pass plays to turn into running plays for Robinson. Obviously Michigan will continue its dependence on the short passing game with slants, hitches, outs, flares, and bubble screens, but this week we should see Robinson coming back to Earth from his 86% completion rate last game. Despite safety Jamoris Slaughter likely missing the game, the other three starters in the defensive backfield are all seniors.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense

Armando Allen and Cierre Wood combined for 151 yards on 25 carries (6.0 yard average) against Purdue. For all the talk about Brian Kelly’s passing game, Notre Dame has a ton of talent at running back and Kelly won’t be shy about using that talent. Meanwhile, Michigan’s interior rush defense needs to improve. Michigan allowed 138 rushing yards against UConn, including running back Jordan Todman’s 105 yards on 20 carries (5.3 yard average). It would be unwise for the Irish not to attack the middle of the defense with the run. Nose tackle Mike Martin and linebackers Craig Roh and Jonas Mouton need to play at the top of their games in order for Michigan to have success against the ground game. But even with all those guys – and Brandon Graham – playing in 2009, Allen rushed for 139 yards on a 6.6-yard average against Michigan.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Pass Defense vs Notre Dame Pass Offense
This could be the bane of Michigan’s existence. Sophomore quarterback Dayne Crist completed 76% of his passes last week, and he has a solid group of receivers to catch those passes. Wide receiver Michael Floyd and tight end Kyle Rudolph are both excellent athletes, and Michigan might not have the horses to run – and jump – with them. Michael Floyd had an excellent game against the Wolverines in 2009, and that was prior to the departures of, oh, about 13 cornerbacks. Furthermore, Michigan produced zero sacks last week against UConn. The one saving grace may be that Saturday’s weather in South Bend, IN, is supposed to be wet. For Michigan’s sake, hopefully that leaves Michael Floyd, Rudolph, and Co. dropping as many passes as UConn quarterback Zach Frazer’s targets last week.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Final Predictions- Armando Allen rushes for 125+ yards.- Denard Robinson comes back to Earth and completes less than 60% of his passes.- Michigan’s pass rush sacks Crist at least 3 times.- For the second week in a row, Michigan allows a 40+ yard reception.

– Notre Dame 27, Michigan 24

Preview: Michigan vs. UConn

Rush Offense vs. UConn Rush Defense
When Rich Rodriguez was in the Big East, his teams ran all over UConn. Rodriguez knows how to run against a Randy Edsall-coached team, and that should serve him well. Not only will Michigan start the fleet-footed Denard Robinson, but the Wolverines have a solid offensive line and a variety of capable running backs. The Huskies do boast two very good senior linebackers in Lawrence Wilson and Greg Lloyd, but Lloyd is coming off a serious knee injury and probably won’t be up to 100%. Meanwhile, UConn’s defensive line is banged up. This should be a big day for Michigan on the ground.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. UConn Pass Defense
I don’t expect Michigan to go to the air as much as last year, not with Denard Robinson at the helm. Robinson’s passing ability has reportedly improved in the last year, but it had nowhere to go but up. Additionally, Michigan should be able to churn out yards on the ground, which makes the pass merely a distraction. We’ll surely see some short passes on play action, and I think Roy Roundtree and Darryl Stonum will both be targeted deep once or twice. That should keep the defense honest, and at least one big play should occur through the air. However, all bets are off when Forcier enters the game. He had an excellent game in the opener against Western Michigan in 2009, and he’s healthy right now. Michigan should be able to take advantage of a weak secondary without too many turnovers, although I’m guessing they’ll pick off a bad decision or two.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. UConn Rush Offense
Things begin to get iffy for Michigan on defense. UConn has run the ball well in the recent past, and junior Jordan Todman had 14 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards in 2009. Four of UConn’s starting offensive linemen return, and that doesn’t bode well for a Michigan front that includes a converted fullback starting at middle linebacker (Mark Moundros) and a freshman outside linebacker (Carvin Johnson). Michigan’s defensive line should be stout against UConn’s power run game, but the linebackers will probably make some frustrating mistakes. The defensive backfield is young and I have questions about the tackling ability of all four guys on the back end, excluding Jordan Kovacs – who is slow but a good tackler.
Advantage: Connecticut

Pass Defense vs. UConn Pass Offense
Zach Frazer originally committed to Notre Dame, but he couldn’t hack it there. He transferred to Connecticut, and maybe he can’t hack it there, either. If every UConn opponent’s defense is like Michigan’s, though, he’ll have a very solid season. The defensive backfield is very green and – yeah, I’ll say it – not very talented. Michigan has certainly suffered from bad luck regarding injuries and personality problems at those positions, but the coaching and recruiting have to be questioned, too. Regardless, the Wolverines will be playing two former receivers (James Rogers, Cameron Gordon), a former walk-on (Jordan Kovacs), and a guy who should probably be playing safety (J.T. Floyd). Ugh. There will be missed tackles and blown assignments. Tomorrow will be frustrating.
Advantage: Connecticut

Final Predictions

Denard Robinson will rush for 80+ yards.

One Michigan running back will run for 100+ yards.

Robinson will make at least two turnovers.

UConn will have a 40+ yard pass and a 40+ yard run.

Despite the “change” in terminology, Michigan’s defense will look much the same as in 2009.

Final score: Michigan 38, Connecticut 31