11Jun 2011
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson ran for a billion yards on Saturday.Yesterday was such a roller coaster of emotions throughout the game.- Low: Michigan’s defense sucks as Notre Dame QB Dayne Crist marches down the field for an opening-drive TD.
– High: This Denard kid is pretty good.
– Higher: Crist is hurt. Maybe Michigan has a chance!
– Highest: Denard Robinson runs 87 yards for a touchdown.
– Low: Why are all three guys with a deep third gathered in the middle of the field at the end of the half?
– High: Michigan is up by two touchdowns at halftime.
– Low: Dayne Crist is back.
– Lower: Crist throws a 53-yard touchdown pass to T.J. Jones.
– Lowestest: Crist throws a 95-yard touchdown pass to TE Kyle Rudolph over the head of FS Cam Gordon.
– High: This Denard kid is really good.
– Low: Cullen Christian’s hero must be Shawn Crable.
– Coasting into the station: Dayne Crist throws an airball with :00 on the clock.It was such a relief when the game was over. I was expecting a loss, but the thing about predicting a loss is that I’m either justified in my prediction . . . or I’m ecstatic that Michigan won. And I’d much rather see the Wolverines win than be right.
There were so many things that Michigan fans learned yesterday about their team, and I’ll try to touch on a few of them here:Denard Robinson is really, really good. Notre Dame’s defense made a distinct attempt to stop him. He still ran for 258 yards (a Big Ten record for a QB) on 28 attempts (9.2 yards per carry), including an 87-yard touchdown and the 2-yard game-winner. The Fighting Irish have an experienced defense and run a 3-4 scheme that isn’t seen much in college, but Robinson was also able to throw for 244 yards on 24/44 passing (55%) (EDIT: Reader MH20 pointed out that Denard was 24/40 for a 60% completion rate) against three seniors and a sophomore in the defensive backfield.
Michigan’s running backs are not. Notre Dame keyed on Robinson and geared themselves to stop him in the run game. Still, running backs Vincent Smith (7 carries, 17 yards, 2.4 average) and Michael Shaw (5 carries, 12 yards, 2.4 average) were ineffective. These kids will take what’s given to them, but they don’t create yards for themselves. This seems to be an ongoing position battle, and hopefully running back recruits like Demetrius Hart recognize that the presence of a quarterback like Robinson should give them plenty of opportunities to get in space. After two weeks, Robinson is averaging 28.5 carries per game. That’s too much for a sturdy running back, let alone a 194 lb. quarterback.
Michigan’s receivers have stepped up. The only true drop I remember came from tight end Kevin Koger on a rollout pass early in the game. Otherwise, players like Darryl Stonum (4 for 33), Roy Roundtree (8 for 82 and 1 touchdown), and Martavious Odoms (7 for 91) made some highly contested catches throughout the game. If Robinson throws the ball within reasonable reach of Michigan’s wideouts, they’re going to catch it.
Cameron Gordon has a target on his back. Most or all of Notre Dame’s big plays were the result of Cameron Gordon’s inexperience and/or lack of natural talent. Luckily for Michigan, this Notre Dame team represented perhaps the most dangerous passing team on the Wolverines’ 2010 schedule. But other teams will be forced to take note of Gordon’s mistakes. There were numerous times where receivers ran past him or he lost track of them (the TD pass to Jones, the long pass to Riddick at the end of the first half, the 95-yard TD to Rudolph). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Brian Kelly gameplanned to attack the redshirt freshman wide receiver-turned-safety. This is the reason that I lobbied for Troy Woolfolk to remain at deep safety back in the spring. Obviously, a broken ankle would have sidelined Woolfolk no matter what position he was playing, but you can’t convince me that a Big Ten sprinter of Woolfolk’s caliber would have been outrun by a 265 lb. tight end to the end zone. I would not be entirely surprised to see a player with more speed (perhaps Carvin Johnson or Marvin Robinson) take over the FS position in the coming years. I don’t want to see him benched, but I think Gordon would fit better at Bandit or Spur.
Jonas Mouton is blossoming in this defense. He led the team with 13 tackles and also picked off a flea-flicker pass. He did miss some tackles on the elusive and speedy Armando Allen, but I can’t say that I blame him – Allen could be a special college running back if used correctly. Overall, Mouton showed the play recognition and discipline to be a force for the remainder of the season.
The pass rush needs to improve. Through two games, Michigan’s only sack has come from backup Spur Thomas Gordon, who started in place of the injured Carvin Johnson. Michigan frequently used a three-man rush in an attempt to get to the quarterback, and it repeatedly failed. That three-man rush often consisted of nose tackle Mike Martin, defensive end Ryan Van Bergen, and linebacker Craig Roh playing in a three-point stance. At 251 lbs. Craig Roh can’t stand up to being double-teamed in the pass rush. Against a single offensive lineman, I’ll take Roh to win that matchup a majority of the time. If a second lineman comes to help, Roh will get planted on his butt, which happened several times on Saturday. Ultimately, you play to win the game (thanks, Herm Edwards!), and Michigan did that. But the Wolverines also gave up 381 yards passing.
Tate Forcier is being a good teammate. There were questions last week about his behavior on the sideline after freshman Devin Gardner was inserted instead of Forcier. Forcier was shown giving Coach Rodriguez a hug prior to kickoff, he warmed up congenially when Gardner was inserted for one play, and he was shown cheering on his team over and over again. At least publicly, Forcier looks as though he learned a bit of a lesson from the media blowback last weekend.
You might hate me for saying this, but Notre Dame would have won the game if not for Dayne Crist’s injury. Crist is only a sophomore, but he performed much better than his two replacements (Tommy Rees, Nate Montana) who had never played an FBS snap before. When Crist was available, Notre Dame outscored Michigan 24-7. Rees and Montana went 8/19 for 104 yards and 2 interceptions in Crist’s stead. Crist was 13/25 for 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, in addition to a rushing touchdown. Crist missed about 26 minutes of the game. If the Irish kept up that same rate of scoring (24 points per 34 minutes of Crist’s availability), they would have scored about 42 points in the game. Despite Denard Robinson’s heroics and record-setting performance, all may have been for naught if Crist remained healthy. Injuries are a part of the game, but I think Michigan fans should recognize that the Wolverines got a bit lucky yesterday.
Denard Robinson is the clear-cut Heisman leader right now. Robinson has 885 total yards (455 rushing, 430 passing) and 5 touchdowns through two games. He also hasn’t turned over the ball once, and his team is 2-0. In addition, while several other Heisman candidates have played patsies at least once in the first two games, both of Michigan’s opponents were bowl-eligible last season. Now that Robinson has performed well against solid teams – and rushed the ball 57 times – I’m guessing he’ll get quite a bit of rest against UMass next Saturday. I doubt he’ll remain the leader throughout the season because Michigan’s defense will lose a few games this year, but he’s been the best individual performer so far.
Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd catched a touchdown over Donovan WarrenRush Offense vs. Notre Dame Rush Defense
Denard Robinson showed last week that he can be an elite runner from the quarterback position. He ran for 197 yards on 29 carries against UConn. Meanwhile, Michigan’s actual running backs combined to average 3.4 yards per carry against the Huskies. The Fighting Irish should be geared to stop Robinson from running the ball. That means the Notre Dame contain men should stay home and force Robinson to hand off the ball in the zone read option. If I’m the defensive coordinator, I’m going to try to make Michigan’s unproven running backs beat me. This is a base 3-4 defense, and the blocking schemes will be different than against UConn. Michigan’s athletic offensive line should be able to get up on the linebackers, though, and provide some running lanes for Robinson and the backs. Notre Dame defensive end Ethan Johnson will be tough to handle for the offensive tackles, but this defense sets up well for David Molk, Steve Schilling, and Patrick Omameh to have a field day.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
Denard Robinson was 19/22 for 186 yards and 1 touchdown. That level of success will be difficult for Robinson to emulate this week against a veteran secondary that should be able to disguise coverages. Michigan’s passing game was pretty vanilla against UConn, and last year’s leading receiver, Roy Roundtree, might miss the game due to injury. Combine that with Notre Dame’s veteran outside linebackers who should be able to rush the passer, and I expect many pass plays to turn into running plays for Robinson. Obviously Michigan will continue its dependence on the short passing game with slants, hitches, outs, flares, and bubble screens, but this week we should see Robinson coming back to Earth from his 86% completion rate last game. Despite safety Jamoris Slaughter likely missing the game, the other three starters in the defensive backfield are all seniors.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame Rush Offense
Armando Allen and Cierre Wood combined for 151 yards on 25 carries (6.0 yard average) against Purdue. For all the talk about Brian Kelly’s passing game, Notre Dame has a ton of talent at running back and Kelly won’t be shy about using that talent. Meanwhile, Michigan’s interior rush defense needs to improve. Michigan allowed 138 rushing yards against UConn, including running back Jordan Todman’s 105 yards on 20 carries (5.3 yard average). It would be unwise for the Irish not to attack the middle of the defense with the run. Nose tackle Mike Martin and linebackers Craig Roh and Jonas Mouton need to play at the top of their games in order for Michigan to have success against the ground game. But even with all those guys – and Brandon Graham – playing in 2009, Allen rushed for 139 yards on a 6.6-yard average against Michigan.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Pass Defense vs Notre Dame Pass Offense
This could be the bane of Michigan’s existence. Sophomore quarterback Dayne Crist completed 76% of his passes last week, and he has a solid group of receivers to catch those passes. Wide receiver Michael Floyd and tight end Kyle Rudolph are both excellent athletes, and Michigan might not have the horses to run – and jump – with them. Michael Floyd had an excellent game against the Wolverines in 2009, and that was prior to the departures of, oh, about 13 cornerbacks. Furthermore, Michigan produced zero sacks last week against UConn. The one saving grace may be that Saturday’s weather in South Bend, IN, is supposed to be wet. For Michigan’s sake, hopefully that leaves Michael Floyd, Rudolph, and Co. dropping as many passes as UConn quarterback Zach Frazer’s targets last week.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Final Predictions- Armando Allen rushes for 125+ yards.- Denard Robinson comes back to Earth and completes less than 60% of his passes.- Michigan’s pass rush sacks Crist at least 3 times.- For the second week in a row, Michigan allows a 40+ yard reception.
– Notre Dame 27, Michigan 24
Need I say more?
Tate Forcier is better than you. At throwing. At running. At breaking Darius Fleming’s legs. At keeping cool under pressure. At punting. He’s better than you at everything except, perhaps, brushing his teeth.
I predicted a 31-27 victory for Notre Dame. I was wrong and I’m glad. But I was fully prepared for a defeat before the game, and I was even pretty prepared when Notre Dame went ahead 34-31 with a few minutes left in the game, at least compared to most Michigan fans. But then Charlie Weis got all cocky and was like, “I’m going to totally surprise everyone and throw the ball deep.” Except Donovan Warren is smarter than Weis (which sucks for Notre Dame) and broke up the pass.
Forcier was 23/33 for 240 yards, two TDs, and an interception to go along with 70 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. He was the author of several of the game’s most electrifying plays, including the scrambling, game-winning TD pass to Greg Mathews. But the most exciting play for Michigan was when Forcier, on a pass play against a Cover Zero defense, rolled right, planted his right foot in front of Notre Dame linebacker Darius Fleming, and watched Fleming fall down before sprinting 31 yards past the defense for a touchdown. Denard Robinson might be the “Lightning” bolt of the two quarterbacks, but ABC analyst Matt Millen deemed Forcier a “stud bolt,” which . . . hey, despite its homoeroticism, I’ll take it.
Can we please, please, PUH-LEEZE see more Brandon Minor on offense? I’ve been saying this since before the 2008 season – Minor is the best running back on the team. Not Carlos Brown. Not Sam McGuffie when he was still here. The coaches may have started Brown because Brown had been healthy and started last week, but I believe Minor only had three or four carries in the first half. And on those three or four carries, he had 26 yards. Forcier was keeping the ball too much on the read option and Rodriguez was calling too many pass plays. Minor needs the ball. He had 16 carries total for 106 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and one TD. Brown showed good hands on two catches, but Minor has the ability to outrun people and break tackles, something Brown struggles with. Minor also seems to have a better handle on when to cut upfield on those zone stretch plays.
Offensive game ball goes to . . . Forcier (2) for the second week in a row. Mathews had the game-winning TD, Darryl Stonum had a 94-yard kickoff return TD, Minor had 106 yards and a TD. But Forcier played well throughout the game and went 6-for-7 on the game-winning drive, not to mention his long run for a TD.
Defensive game ball goes to . . . Steve Brown (2), who seems to have found a home at the SAM linebacker spot. He finished the game with 6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. And despite the fact that Notre Dame running back Armando Allen had 139 yards, Brown held up well at the point of attack and forced Allen to cut some outside runs up the field. Unfortunately, Michigan’s inside linebackers – especially Obi Ezeh – had a poor tackling day.
Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Carlos Brown (1). Brown has big-play potential and probably catches the ball better than Brandon Minor, but he’s not as good of a runner. Brown had 4 carries for -3 yards. Put him in the slot or in two-back sets, but Minor should be in the backfield most of the time.
Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Boubacar Cissoko (1). This one has many levels. First of all, Cissoko allowed two touchdowns on Saturday, both against Golden Tate. On the first, Tate ran a hitch near the goal-line and Cissoko just gave him too much of a cushion. On the second, Tate ran a hitch on the right sideline and Cissoko missed the tackle. Secondly, next week Michigan plays Eastern Michigan, so hopefully Cissoko can get some rest for his aching shoulder. Third, Cissoko had way too much TV time for a guy who was getting burned left and right. He crossed his arms in denial at one point, and after a Michael Floyd catch and tackle along the left sideline, Cissoko pushed Floyd back down to the ground as Floyd tried to get up. It was a classless play that deserved a 15-yard penalty.
As far as my predictions went for the game . . . they were so-so.
Clausen will throw for over 300 yards.
He threw for 339. Michigan couldn’t muster a pass rush against Notre Dame’s maximum protection schemes, and Michael Floyd is better than anyone we have at cornerback.
Golden Tate and Michael Floyd will each have a 40+ yard catch.
Neither did. Floyd had a 37-yarder and Tate’s long was 27. Tate dropped at least one pass that would have gone for 40+ yards, so they were close.
Brandon Graham will record at least two sacks.
Again, the maximum protection pass blocking schemes worked pretty well for Notre Dame. They didn’t trust their offensive line against the likes of Graham and Mike Martin, which was probably smart. Nobody from Michigan recorded a sack.
Either Brandon Minor or Carlos Brown will go over 100 yards rushing.
Minor ended with 106.
Tate Forcier will throw his first collegiate interception.
Safety Kyle McCarthy picked off Forcier in the fourth quarter when Greg Mathews ran a bad route.
Here’s the helpful box score from Mgoblue.com.
Picture via TheWolverine.com.
